Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
- Closed
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The numbers I am using come from authoritative sources.
The Chinese government did a few things after Day 10..progressively more
otherwise there might have been a revolution..
Other countries are in the process of doing them.
some quicker some slower.. some not at all
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The numbers I am using come from authoritative sources. All of the projections I have made for the past 2 weeks have been spot on. The trend has not changed. This is the easiest kind of projection you can make. It is straight out of 18th century biology. Similar graphs have been published in every newspaper. If this were "playing" with numbers my predictions would be far off by now.
1. The Exponential model is relevant only to the early stages, and eventually flattens out.2. SIR Model
eg
<https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…0.02.26.20028571.full.pdf>
The population is modeled (using chemical reaction equations, derived originally from quantum mechanics!) as
S : Susceptible ... people who haven't caught it
I : Infected ... capable of infecting a susceptible
R : Removed -- includes Recovered, Quarantined and Died
This model assumes that S and I people will mix freely and transfer the virus with some probability. Even before everyone is infected or removed, R0 falls below 1 and the curve flattens and decreases.
3. Population Network Model.
A Network of N people is generated ... taking into account homes, schools, transport etc. Then a "case 0" is injected, and propagates through the network.
For example, if one person in a home is infected the others will too. In the New Rochelle cluster this is how it happened.
Here's a very good, current report (linked and discussed way above):
<https://www.imperial.ac.uk/med…-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf>
They look particularly at the number of ICU beds available, and the number of deaths. (I don't know if they take into account that the
death rate will be much higher if the ICUs are saturated).
The Do Nothing case for the UK, with a high R0 (2.6) gives a rapid saturation of hospital beds, and a death total of 550,000
Implementing a very early total lockdown cuts the deaths to 48,000
If R0 is 2 then there are only 5,600 deaths.
They analyze the US partially -- R0 = 2.0
Do Nothing : 2,200,000 deaths. Quick Lock-down 22,000
Since the US still has close-to-zero testing, lockdown is the only option. (My county in CA is going into 'shelter in place' at midnight, even though we have NO reported cases)Note that S. Korea doesn't have a general lockdown .. they are testing 600,000 per million and quarantining the positives. The US
is currently testing only 100 per million, so total lockdown is the only option.
[ Note : the above is copied from a post I made on another site a couple of days ago. I think it's still relevant. ] -
How the 'spanish flu" 100 years ago changed public health
"Many countries created or revamped health ministries in the 1920s.
This was a direct result of the pandemic, during which public health leaders had been either left out of cabinet meetings entirely, or reduced to pleading for funds and powers from other departments. But there was also recognition of the need to coordinate public health at the international level, since clearly, contagious diseases didn’t respect borders.
The year 1919 saw the opening, in Vienna, Austria, of an international bureau for fighting epidemics—a forerunner of today’s World Health Organization."
Perhaps there will be changes to public health when this Covid episode is over..
Apparently there is a good case for the Spanish flu starting in China around 1917
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Well if we can at last convince our resident sceptics that chloroquine/favilavir/azithromycin treatment will actually work maybe we can now persuade the NHS/to make it freely available to those vulnerable people who want to use it. This as I understand it is the case in other civilised countries that have now the coronavirus outbreak under control (China, Korea, Japan). Wikipedia have updated it all now as corona virus remedy. Interestingly the half-life of hydroxychloroquine which is actually a metabolite of chloroquine produced in the body is very very long 30 days or so in blood plasma which again accounts for why African nationals never succumbed to the virus working in China. When returning from malarial regions chloroquine or analogues like mefloquine or primaquine or indeed quinine itself are taken for periods of up to a month following entry into China. I know this is only circumstantial evidence - but in addition to the still very few reported cases and nil fatalities in Africa, the rapid recovery in regions that are now using chloroquine, the continued worsening of the pandemic e.g. Italy where it is not being used isn't the evidence for using it overwhelming? And further actively discouraging this treatment by pharmacies cancelling orders could be tantamount to mass murder? No new cases today in China! If all else fails all you can do.is drink lots and lots of tonic water which contains about 20 mg quinine per litre (assuming chloroquine analogues have some benefit). Still no discussion in the media even though it's all posted on Wiki-maybe such a simple cheap remedy is being suppressed by big pharma hoping to make a killing out of vaccine sales! Oh no not another conspiracy theory!
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'FLIR, military optics, etc can be used to do this long range.'
And hopefully night scopes.
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This is an article published on German media outlet (Bild). Pasting the google translated link, it’s about the initial cover up of the outbreak by Chinese authorities.
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With reference to my post above the '3 rings' visible in otherwise asymptomatic individuals. which is unverified but based on 'front line' clinical observation by qualified experts, it leads to another hypothesis (mine) that it is possible that live virus can be shed by these people cocooned in skin-flakes shed from the face.
that would be a quick screening way, using FLIR cameras to spot potential asymptomatic carriers. The asymptomatics nevertheless shed viral particles AFAIK and are the most harmful part of the outbreak because they spread the virus. That’s why the lock down strategy involves keeping people at home.
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1. The Exponential model is relevant only to the early stages, and eventually flattens out.
Yes. That is what I said. We are still in the early stages, because there are not enough recovered patients with immunity to affect the numbers. The curve will flatten when a significant fraction of the population is immune. The math becomes more complicated at that point, and my simple graph will no longer apply. As I said. My graph is simple, but I am not "playing with numbers." It is rooted in reality.
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Attached (with the author's permission) is a brand-new pre-print paper on Covid-19 symptomology and possible treatments by Dr. Mitchell Swartz, clinician, radiology expert and LENR researcher.
Introduction
The respiratory illness called COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 [Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome coronavirus] is an emergent serious pandemic threat because of its high transmission
rate (contagion factor, r0 = ~ 2.2), its multiple pathways around the globe leading to pandemic,
its relatively high fatality rate compared to both the common coronaviruses and influenza
viruses, its shift of increased affinity for the human receptors in the lung and heart, the longer
viability of the virus in the air and on surfaces, and the very existence of long-term superspreaders
with the absence of signs or symptoms.
First appearing in Wuhan, Hubei Province,China, it has inexorably spread [1,2,3]. While the world
anxiously awaits a vaccine expected next year and increased testing kits, in the interim, the
increased prevalence is an opportunity to review new findings, possible palliation(s) and diagnostic signs,
and to reconsider where medical advantages can be taken, and as this short review suggests, that may include use of
antihypertensive change, or ethanol and/or other GRAS (generally recognized as safe) materials,
in vivo.
Now that I have read this, and even if it sounds like a joke, I understand why I have read a lot of anecdotal reports of medical personnel in Italy working “under the influence” and having Vodka as first thing in the morning: it has an actual protective effect!
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70% ethanol in the blood? That's a lot of hot toddies! Medicinal use of whisky for colds and flu has been used for centuries so it's worth investigating.
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This is an article published on German media outlet (Bild). Pasting the google translated link, it’s about the initial cover up of the outbreak by Chinese authorities.
This is close to a political strand of discussion.
I'd just say this. We know the Chinese initially covered things up. They have admitted as much.
Such behaviour is typical of most politicians, or people in positions of corporate power. Where there is uncetrainty, and possible bad news, many will try to suppress the possible bad news in the hope it will go away.
Sometimes it does go away. This time it did not.
The appreciation of why this was a medical story of such importance, potentially, is something that again non-scientists find it hard evaluate. Look at how climate change, where the risks are capable of different interpretations, gets minimised.
In this case we know whether ignoring a risk was wise rather quickly after the initial decision, because things move so fast!
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Dr. Swartz's paper suggesting that oral ethanol might be useful in preventing coronavirus infections in humans is fanciful nonsense. The recommended concentration of ethanol in water to kill viruses is >60%. In the blood, less than 0.1% makes the patient too drunk to drive. >0.2% is usually unconsciousness and the LD50 (median lethal dose) is >= 0.45%. No practical concentration of ethanol reachable in blood or tissue is likely to affect coronavirus. Not only that, but the idea isn't even original. Kate Chastain, a member of the cast and crew of the "Bravo" channel series "Below Decks" said, "(like a terrible guest on the yacht...) Let’s get it drunk and hope it passes out."
And BTW, last I looked, tonic water does not contain quinine any more. It contains quinine flavor. I suppose some brands may still have the drug but that would be a homeopathic quantity and useless.
Alan Smith The claim that one can detect sick patients with COVID-19 because of facial capillary flush is interesting but I know of no evidence for it. Many diseases do cause characteristic facial rashes and color changes but I'd like to see the evidence for COVID-19 doing that in a detectable way. There is no shortage of patients to test on, unfortunately. Thermograms can detect fever but that is well known and a lot of COVID-19 patients have no fever at some or all stages of the disease. Does anyone have any evidence that this works?
QuoteMedicinal use of whisky for colds and flu has been used for centuries so it's worth investigating.
There are very few approved medical applications for oral ethyl alcohol. Methanol intoxication is one I know of. Whiskey was once used for frostbite and hypothermia but some studies suggest it makes those worse. Do you have evidence for its use in colds? I think all it does is get the patient drunk.
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Update on chloroquine below. It still feels like Doctors in the U.S. are seeing this and remdesivir as two of the best treatment candidates:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/1…ria-drug-can-be-used.html
And here are a couple of accounts on the use of remdesivir:https://www.nbcnews.com/health…ting-coronavirus-n1158316
if I or anyone I knew got to the place where it didn’t look good, I wouldn’t hesitate to throw both of them at it to see. Personally I think it would be worth the downside risk. -
Probably a waste of time - it only alleviates the symptoms by being intoxicated. Azithromycin in combination with chloroquine as the Prof Raoult study shows is far more promising. I checked local Tesco's own brand contains quinine about 20 mg/litre and the lower limit for a therapeutic dose is 0.05 mg/litre plasma. So there may be some slight benefit in drinking one of two litres per day, and the pharmacokinetics is complex indicating very long half-life for metabolites in the body. Sure is a long-shot but prophylactic concentrations could build up over time.
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So Trump is going ahead with chloroquine testing - great news.
