https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…n-coronavirus-deaths.html
Wuhan mortality recalculated downward. New number now is 1.4%. Before it ranged from 2-3.4%. Deaths mostly among older people.
Just to be fair: the previous estimates were all CFR. This is an attempt to calculate IFR (much more difficult - but what you need for total deaths per person infected).
Loose headlines here make it look as though the original science was wrong. That is not true in this case.
Just to be fair: the previous estimates were all CFR. This is an attempt to calculate IFR (much more difficult - but what you need for total deaths per person infected).
Unluckily such simple models do not work for Wuhan,North Italy and Madrid. All three places do have (now did....) the most aggressive smog conditions and in such we must treat the whole population as owning a lung precondition. The smog in these place corresponds to 60-100 cigarets a day!
The numbers from Italy show that the death rate from corona alone is extremely low 0.01% !! All people died from multiple complications with medical preconditions.
Thus until the real figures doing such a separation get publish all such summary claims about death rates are more or less rubbish. But our brick headed leaders follow the same brand of experts that are basically undereducated in doing proper analysis.
The only thing that must be done in non polluted regions: Curfew (home isolation - external delivery) for old people and such with known preconditions. Only smog places need more hard measures.
This makes the virus a kind of congenial. It just really punishes the not well behaving cities...
Display MoreLatest news from Europe:
Italy: All 3400 deaths had 1-3 medical preconditions. High blood pressure, Diabetes, respiratory problems. Average age 79.5 years. youngest: 3 with 40 years. Only 3 out of 3400 did finally die from corona only.
This indicates that the true death rate of corona is very very low possibly as low as 0.001% if we exclude our notorious sick population.
Switzerland : Same sitation. Main drug for treatment used Caletra see what it is: http://www.aidsmap.com/about-h…tsheet/lopinavirritonavir
According to China news: All these retroviral drugs must be given early before the lung is fully affected!!
Some places in Switzerland changes the rule: Full lockout for all people older than 65 and with medical precondition.
Germany thinks to country wide do the same and calls it reverse lockout.
In my opinion the current strategy is driven by the health mafia as they are going to loose their cash cows. 90% of western doctors income is generates by just the same group of people (age > 65) that now fade away!!
Do yo think that mortality rate with or without access to ICU be different?
Axios news put together a good timeline of events as they happened in Wuhan:
https://www.axios.com/timeline…7b8-353718a5faab.html?utm
Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.
Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.
Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.
Dec. 30:
Dec. 31:
Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.
Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.
Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.
Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.
Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.
Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.
Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."
Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.
Jan. 18:
Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.
Jan. 20:
Jan. 21:
Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.
Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.
Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan. From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.
The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.
Regarding Vitamin C treatment at Shanghai Public Health Center:
From March 18, http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n18.shtml
QuoteDr. Mao stated that his group treated ~50 cases of moderate to severe cases of Covid-19 infection with high dose IVC. The IVC dosing was in the range of 10,000 mg - 20,000 mg a day for 7-10 days, with 10,000 mg for moderate cases and 20,000 for more severe cases, determined by pulmonary status (mostly the oxygenation index) and coagulation status. All patients who received IVC improved and there was no mortality. Compared to the average of a 30-day hospital stay for all Covid-19 patients, those patients who received high dose IVC had a hospital stay about 3-5 days shorter than the overall patients. Dr. Mao discussed one severe case in particular who was deteriorating rapidly. He gave a bolus of 50,000 mg IVC over a period of 4 hours. The patient's pulmonary (oxygenation index) status stabilized and improved as the critical care team watched in real time. There were no side effects reported from any of the cases treated with high dose IVC.
I'm a little surprised that :
1) the average hospital stay is 30 days long!
2) the patients receiving high dose intravenous vitamin C had hospital stays only 3-5 days shorter that average. I was expecting a result a little more pronounced.
I keep checking for updates for the vitamin C study posted on Feb 11 at
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2…NCT04264533&draw=2&rank=1
Still at the "recruitment" stage. I would think this kind of study should be, well, ... fast tracked seeing it is conducted in Wuhan and one would think it would be amply funded by the CCP.
....
Looks like it's becoming a bandwagon - but let's not forget that zinc potentiates the chloroquine inhibition of COVID-19 so 30 mg or so zinc citrate should be prescribed as well in case of any deficiency. Hydroxychloroquine is more effective than chloroquine in vitro (EC50's 0.37 and 1.1 uM) so that's why I suggested a dose of only 100 mg. It also is concentrated intracellularly in lysosomes 1000-fold perhaps accounting for its long half life and blocking entry into cells via viral fusion mechanisms or glycolysation of ACE Ii receptor binding sites.
QuoteThis indicates that the true death rate of corona is very very low possibly as low as 0.001% if we exclude our notorious sick population.
Bullshit!!!! Total idiocy! WTF does that last part even mean?
QuoteLooks like it's becoming a bandwagon - but let's not forget that zinc potentiates the chloroquine inhibition of COVID-19 so 30 mg or so zinc citrate should be prescribed as well in case of any deficiency
What? Where is that from? What is known is that zinc gluconate glycine (not citrate) may mildly inhibit common cold (rhinovirus) viruses as per an old Cleveland Clinic study. If you don't have evidence, please stop misleading and misinforming people.
Ahlfors Good stuff, thanks.
Do yo think that mortality rate with or without access to ICU be different?
The problem is than some patients with severe preconditions have a time window of 1 day to get the correct medication. Many hospitalized people in Italy did take the short cut after 3 days...
I think if you give hydroxychloroquine early then almost all people with no precondition will survive.
There is absolutely no reason for panic. Just lock out the oldest and most affected people. Increase the number of tests and make medication available. And do not take part in any study provided by a money greedy company with a new drug! The current medication is safe what means: We know all risks as is in use since 1947!
QuoteThere is absolutely no reason for panic. Just lock out the oldest and most affected people.
That's mental sickness. What? You don't have grandparents? There is no excuse for this sort of abject stupidity, ignorance, misleading and misinformation. The fact that you think something is about as informative as if Mickey Mouse said it. This sort of thinking is similar to that from young people at Spring Break in the US who think they are immune. It spreads ignorance and that makes the already terrible epidemic even worse. I am censoring myself here. I'd like to say much more about Wyttenbach writings.
What? You don't have grandparents?
Not anymore.. also. One quarter of my greatgrandparents are nameless. went missing in the 'Spanish' Flu.. in Black November..1919
People panicked then.. there was no cure.. there was no WHO there was no public health...
and there was no toilet paper. Panic was on another level then..
@sot - evidence for Zn ions inhibiting SARS virus:
Increasing the intracellular Zn2+ concentration with zinc-ionophores like pyrithione (PT) can efficiently impair the replication of a variety of RNA viruses, including poliovirus and influenza virus, in which the combination of Zn2+ and PT at low concentration inhibits the replication of SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and equine arteritis virus(EAV) in cell culture [56]. Zn2+ directly inhibited the in vitro activity of both nidovirus polymerases, and Zn2+ blocked the initiation step of EAV RNA synthesis, whereas in the case of the SARS-CoV RdRp elongation was inhibited and template binding reduced. Thus, the inhibitory effects of Zn2+ chelating could be reversed, which provides the molecular mechanism details of nidovirus replication and transcription
-and
www.preprints.org › manuscript › download
PDF
3 days ago - efficacy of chloroquine as an anti-coronavirus agent. ... acts as an ionophore that aids in the intracellular transport of the mineral Zinc.78 This is.
Is a combo of chloroquine and Zinc a cure for coronavirus?
www.researchgate.net › post › Is_a_combo_of_chloroquine_and_Zinc_...
Recent studies from Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation, University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research, and Qingdao Municipal Hospital identified ...
Chloroquine + Zinc: This dirt cheap, widely available Malaria ...
thereformedbroker.com › 2020/03/15 › chloroquine-zinc-this-dirt-ch...
5 days ago - Chloroquine + Zinc: This dirt cheap, widely available Malaria treatment became South Korea's weapon of choice against COVID-19.
Take it easy SOT. It's a language thing. I am sure he does not mean to put them in an internment facility, jail or anything like that.
Many people were advocating isolating the elderly from their communities after the data showed they were the most vulnerable. Seemed practical under the circumstanc All that is out the window now as we chart new territory.
....
Italy 12-20
15113
17660 16,8
21157 19,8
24747 16,9
27980 13,0
31506 12,6
35713 13,3
41035 14,9 [avg 12-19 15,3]
47021 14,5 [next 53839]
.... X-ray Structure of Main Protease of the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Enables Design of alpha-Ketoamide Inhibitors
The only bright spot I see in today's data is Spain, with two days stable followed by a substantial decline. I do not know if it is significant. But at least the daily new cases did not double in three days, as it has been doing. The number of new cases from the last 3 days are: 2943, 3308, 2335.
.... Crystal structure of SARS-CoV-2 main protease provides a basis for design of improved α-ketoamide inhibitors
