Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
- Closed
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The only bright spot I see in today's data is Spain, with two days stable followed by a substantial decline. I do not know if it is significant. But at least the daily new cases did not double in three days, as it has been doing. The number of new cases from the last 3 days are: 2943, 3308, 2335.
It will be very interesting to see what happens in China over the next couple of weeks. The CEO of Starbucks was on TV saying they just opened a new store in Wuhan yesterday and life was basically back to normal there.
The virus is still in China obviously so will they be able to live relatively normal lives and keep the number of new cases negligible? South Korea is going through the same thing. Even if we got it down to 50-100 new cases per day here in the U.S. I have to imagine that would still keep this on everyone’s minds everyday. We have a long ways to go to get it down to that number so kind of premature talk. -
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Take it easy SOT. It's a language thing. I am sure he does not mean to put them in an internment facility, jail or anything like that
A language thing doesn't account for the constant stream of misinformation and completely wrong assertions and claims-- all, I might add, unattributed. This is a serious subject. I hope nobody pays any attention to what that person says. I suppose Darwin's Law applies.
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A language thing doesn't account for the constant stream of misinformation and completely wrong assertions and claims-- all, I might add, unattributed. This is a serious subject. I hope nobody pays any attention to what that person says. I suppose Darwin's Law applies.
SOT is not well informed as usual and not reading the news of Europe.
Since three days in a part of Switzerland all persons older than 65 are locked in!! = not allowed to leave the house!
Germany is just thinking about doing the same nation wide! China also locked in the whole Wuhan city! and some others too - about 60 Millions.
This is all about protecting the most vulnerable, something that may be is out of SOT's mind.
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completely wrong assertions and claims-
Take some aspirin or licorice...the MY inflammatory count is rising
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zinc and chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine
here is an interesting article. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/p…oroquine-past-and-present
…...I was working for Bayer at the time – there were still plenty of such structures from way back in the compound collection. Unfortunately, none of the analogs we made were active in the slightest, so I did what I should have done right at the start and ordered up some of the original powder sample for more stringent analysis. Sending it out for elemental analysis and checking all the metallic-element boxes revealed that it was about 40% zinc by weight, and a zinc-free sample was, you guessed it, about as active as corn starch. So yeah, I can at least believe that these things complex zinc, for what that’s worth...…...
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The virus is still in China obviously so will they be able to live relatively normal lives and keep the number of new cases negligible?
Surely not "normal lives." They will have to be very careful, until a vaccine is deployed. That is the situation in Japan. Restaurants are still open, but there are very few customers. Graduation ceremonies have been cancelled. A 3-day holiday is coming up in which people usually go visit families, but not this year. There is cluster outbreak in Kobe, so yesterday the city of Osaka is asking people from Kobe to stay away, which upset the mayor of Kobe. It is sort like a return to the Edo period, when those places were different fiefdoms.
The main thing about Japan and China is that they do not face the imminent threat of millions of their citizens dying. Whereas it is all-but-unavoidable in the U.S. according to many experts. A columnist in the N.Y. Times wrote today:
Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said.
When that’s a best-case scenario, it’s difficult to feel optimistic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…coronavirus-outcomes.html
The other thing about China and Japan, which is far less important, is that their factories and business are still running, or they will soon be running again, so their economies will not collapse. Whereas ours will, for a few years.
We are looking at mass graves and as many casualties as western Europe in World War II. I cannot understand why people still do not grasp that. Why are young people still flocking to beaches? Why did a congressman yesterday mock this as a "beer virus"? These people are incredibly stupid. I guess I now understand why many Japanese people were thrilled when the radio announced their country had attacked Pearl Harbor. Anyone with an ounce of sense should have realized it meant their cities would be burned to cinders and millions of people killed, unless they surrendered.
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A language thing doesn't account for the constant stream of misinformation and completely wrong assertions and claims-- all, I might add, unattributed. This is a serious subject. I hope nobody pays any attention to what that person says. I suppose Darwin's Law applies.
So does P.T. Barnum’s law
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At least 2 senators are taking this seriously.
Burr and Loeffler sold a significant amount of their shares after senators received a Corona virus briefing.
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Surely not "normal lives."
Not for along time ..It will take at least 6 months.. to 1 year to get back to anything like normality,, China/ Japan will be the earliest
My night from hell in a Chinese quarantine testing centre ..
Michael SmithChina Correspondent
Mar 20, 2020 – 4.57pm
Shanghai | It is after 3am when medical staff in full hazmat gear usher us through the imposing gates of a coronavirus testing centre that will be our home for the next 16 hours.
I am with a group of 20 tired and hungry airline passengers who flew into Shanghai 12 hours earlier, many of them Chinese students fleeing the coronavirus outbreak in Europe.
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It’s articles like the one below that make the mind rattle a bit. It says that Italy is now calling in its military to enforce the lockdown, and Chinese medical experts who are in Italy say that Italy is not doing enough to contain it. Unreal
Also below is a quote from the article from an Italian Doctor. With thousands of new cases per day I don’t see how their health system won’t seriously buckle under the weight of it all very soon. And no other country can really help them with ventilators etc. because these countries need them for themselves. This is a real tragedy.
"I would say that we are at the end of our strength," he said. "This is a small hospital and we are taking in a lot of people, I would say the capacity is finished. We do not have sufficient resources and especially staff because apart from everything else now the staff are beginning to get sick." -
It’s articles like the one below that make the mind rattle a bit. It says that Italy is now calling in its military to enforce the lockdown, and Chinese medical experts who are in Italy say that Italy is not doing enough to contain it.
Those Chinese medical experts are right. They are not doing enough. Anyone can see they are not doing enough, because if they were doing enough, the daily total cases would start to fall. The rate of increase has not changed at all for the whole of this month. They need to find and isolate every patient, and account for all of the connections. I do not know if it is possible to do that at this late date, with so many patients, but that is what they must do to control the epidemic. Otherwise, it will have to run its course just as epidemics have done for all of human history.
The Chinese were able to do this because although they had many cases, most of them were in Wuhan. The U.S. cases are so spread out, and there are so many, I doubt we could find them follow up on the cases. I doubt we can even count them. I fear it is too late for that. It could have been done easily a month or two ago, but there were never enough test kits.
The mayor of New York today also locked down the city, and he called for the military to assist. Not to enforce the lockdown, but to assist.
Many people will violate the lockdown unless we start to see hundreds of thousands of new cases per day. Which will be around April 3, if present trends continue. Let me emphasize: if present trends continue. I do not know if they will. I am not predicting they will. Perhaps the lockdowns will begin to have some effect, and the curve will be somewhat flattened, so we won't see hundreds of thousands until May or June. That will save countless lives. The only thing I can predict is that if nothing is done, by about April 3, there will be more than 200,000 new cases per day, and about 4,000 deaths per day, roughly equivalent the daily losses on the battlefields during most of World War I.
The lockdowns have not had a measurable effect in Italy or France. Perhaps it is too soon. Or, perhaps, it is too late. I cannot judge.
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Those Chinese medical experts are right. They are not doing enough. Anyone can see they are not doing enough, because if they were doing enough, the daily total cases would start to fall. The rate of increase has not changed at all for the whole of this month. They need to find and isolate every patient, and account for all of the connections. I do not know if it is possible to do that at this late date, with so many patients, but that is what they must do to control the epidemic. Otherwise, it will have to run its course just as epidemics have done for all of human history.
The Chinese were able to do this because although they had many cases, most of them were in Wuhan. The U.S. cases are so spread out, and there are so many, I doubt we could find them follow up on the cases. I doubt we can even count them. I fear it is too late for that. It could have been done easily a month or two ago, but there were never enough test kits.
The mayor of New York today also locked down the city, and he called for the military to assist. Not to enforce the lockdown, but to assist.
Many people will violate the lockdown unless we start to see hundreds of thousands of new cases per day. Which will be around April 3, if present trends continue. Let me emphasize: if present trends continue. I do not know if they will. I am not predicting they will. Perhaps the lockdowns will begin to have some effect, and the curve will be somewhat flattened, so we won't see hundreds of thousands until May or June. That will save countless lives. The only thing I can predict is that if nothing is done, by about April 3, there will be more than 200,000 new cases per day, and about 4,000 deaths per day, roughly equivalent the daily losses on the battlefields during most of World War I.
The lockdowns have not had a measurable effect in Italy or France. Perhaps it is too soon. Or, perhaps, it is too late. I cannot judge.
Hmm, I think that it's virtually impossible to stop the rate of new infections in an initial phase. If 95% of the people stopped spreading the virus you would still have 5% that do not care and spread it within this group can be as coupled as normal society. And assuming this you will still get a 30% rate of increase in new cases. After some time depending on this group size the spread will decrease and we can delay. That's what's I'm hoping for, that the measures taken will lead to a not too fast process and the health care can cope. I'm an optimist though and think that we will find a simple enough cure for death so that we can get it over with before june. Else most probably a very long struggle with quite some deaths is ahead or a fast really deadly scenario.
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This article shows graphs of the likely peak cases in three scenarios, no control, some control and severe control measures. The "no control" curve shown in the graph labeled "How control measures could slow the outbreak" is exactly in line with my simplified graph. It deviates when a significant fraction of the population is infected.
Without Urgent Action, Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S., Estimates Say
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I'm not sure if this has been posted
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (dated Mar 19)
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo…nd-the-dance-be9337092b56
links to
SIR (Susceptible/Infected/Removed) Epidemic Calculator http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html -
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Colleagues:
1. chloroquin (or hydroxychloroquin or quinine, all structurally
similar),azithromycin, vit C, and black licorice are/will be very helpful,
if not curative.
2. this will multiply outputs of ventilators x4
Saving 4 Patients With Just 1 Ventilator
https://hackaday.com/2020/03/1…ts-with-just-1-ventilator -
Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart
Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on the same course.
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Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (dated Mar 19)
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo…nd-the-dance-be9337092b56links to
SIR (Susceptible/Infected/Removed) Epidemic Calculator http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
These are excellent analyses.
Oh, and the interactive graph is about a zillion times more sophisticated than my simple analysis, but at present mine tracks this one, because such a small percent of the population has been infected.
