Taiwan trajectory,,
past exposure to SARS,, MERS and proximity to China are factors in preparedness
also luckily, China shutdown Taiwan connections prior to Covid
Flavanoids look promising for prophylaxis too (found in tea, beans broccoli). There's already been a run on baked beans!
As a flavonoid, kaempferol is able to inhibit oxidative stress, ROS formation, and lipid peroxidation [21–23], and there is a correlation between its antioxidant and antimalarial activities [4]. In addition, inhibition of glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK3β) of the malaria parasite has been reported to be a molecular basis of the antimalarial effect of kaempferol [24]. GSK3 has been described to play a critical role in the host response to malaria infection [25]. Therefore, the antimalarial effects of kaempferol in the present study might be mediated through the inhibition of GSK3β.
Kaempferol has been described as having anticancer properties by inducing apoptosis through the caspase cascade and the MAPK pathway [26–28], which is similar to artemisinin, an effective antimalarial drug currently in use, that also has been reported to have anticancer and related potent antimalarial activities [29]. Hence, it can be hypothesized that the antioxidant and anticancer properties of kaempferol may be responsible for the antimalarial activity observed in the present study.
Inhibition of ACE-2 receptor glycosylation maybe (pure speculation) and although artemisinin acts in a completely different way should be tested as well.
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I don't know. I don't have a medical licence so cannot obtain Azithromycin
No prescriptions needed for antibiotics in/from India
ok - lets see what happens if i order some - or is all mail order down now or worse all chloroquine / parquenil / azithromycin / any other drugs which might be useful in treating this pandemic are being embargoed at customs?
Surprise surprise, guess what? Their server has gone down - maybe facing massive order volume?
ok - lets see what happens if i order some - or is all mail order down now or worse all chloroquine / parquenil / azithromycin / any other drugs which might be useful in treating this pandemic are being embargoed at customs?
Customs can only stop classed drugs from entering (and a party-pack of benzos is unlikely to be much help for covid sufferers anyway).
With the virus spread throughout the country, and world now, what would be the point (of testing everyone) anyway? Suppose the US was testing everyone.
No one is suggesting we test everyone. What we need is a large, statistically significant, random sample of the population in the hardest hit area, which is New York. I think several thousand at least. That will tell us how widespread the disease is. We also need serological tests to see how many people had the disease and recovered. Obviously, there is no immediate clinical benefit for the patient to find out she had it and recovered, except for her peace of mind, but the data would be very useful.
The W.H.O. reported that the Chinese are doing both of these things. I think the Koreans are also doing this. The data is vitally important to evaluating the situation, and planning the next moves. They have done less mass testing in Japan, but they have done some.
News are being produced at a pace it’s hard to follow right now. Frontline reports from Italy (they are not even counting the dead’s now) and Spain (medical personal going in melt down mode on personal Twitter accounts due to the strain and lack of resources they are experiencing) paint a grim picture.
In this mix is easy to miss things but I think the official phone users report data from China is alarming. Taken at face value it implies the telecom market in China suffered a significant shrinking (21 million less mobile and 840k less fixed lines).
Analyzing these numbers also can be an indirect indicator of the possible real death toll. This is highly speculative, but this fall on user numbers is unprecedented and hard to fully understand as of right now.
link to the epoch times article:
The NYT's has a "doubling rate" graphic out. It will be updated daily as deaths are reported, and covers countries, then breaks out the US by individual states. Will be good for spotting trends:
https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/2/e00398-20.long
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Both these articles show the world has kicked into high gear to find the drugs that will kill the virus. They probably represent a longer term solution (although the statins could be used right now I would think?), than the Chloroquine combos already actively being incorporated into treatment protocols. But it does give one hope, that with so many bright minds around the world totally committed to finding the solution, one or more will hit the jackpot.
One reason Germany's death rate is so low (.4%), may be for the same reason South Korea's was low...more testing:
The NYT's has a "doubling rate" graphic out. It will be updated daily as deaths are reported, and covers countries, then breaks out the US by individual states. Will be good for spotting trends:
Unfortunately I think the thing to anticipate here in the U.S. is that 4-5 more States will join WA, CA and NY as States with major outbreaks. The virus started in populated coastal areas and will increasingly work its way into new areas. So the effort to contain it will become more widespread (kind of like the forest fire analogy). It looks like New Jersey and Louisiana might be on that list plus 2-3 others. There is some decent amount is social distancing going on. But the virus will still course through the population for the coming weeks.
And the same thing is likely to happen in France, Germany, and Spain.
The NYT's has a "doubling rate" graphic out. It will be updated daily as deaths are reported, and covers countries, then breaks out the US by individual states.
Note these are deaths, not cases. I believe the numbers for Japan are wrong. I don't mean they are mistaken; I mean they are not useful, because the numbers are so small they are probably not statistically significant. They have only had 41 deaths, and none lately. I do not think there will be 41 more deaths in 12 days, as predicted here.
With a much larger number of deaths, you can make more accurate predictions.
A graph of cases would be more useful. Granted, there are problems with that, mainly testing and case reporting.
Here is a SUPERB presentation by Gov. Cuomo of New York. This is one of the best analyses of the situation I have seen. It is one of the best examples of good leadership since FDR.
It is linked from this page, along with other videos:
But the virus will still course through the population for the coming weeks.
Gov. Cuomo -- who I now designate a world-class expert on this subject -- predicts 40 to 80% of the population will get it (video, minute 39). I do not know where he got those numbers from, but as he says, he has been talking to many experts. Anyway, as he explains, these percentages themselves are not the greatest worry. What we need to worry about most is a large fraction of the population getting infected quickly, and overwhelming the hospitals. If 80% are infected over many months, the hospitals can handle the serious cases, and the number of deaths will be low. If 80% are infected over ~6 weeks, it will be catastrophic. (The peak of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic lasted about 6 weeks.)
That "spreading out" is the first thing he explains in the video, and he goes back to it at minute 39. Listen to that section. His explanation and his tone are superb as I said. This is exactly what everyone needs to hear, and needs to understand.
Just talked with an ER doctor from New Orleans. She and her friend, are here isolating from family while they take a break. I asked her if they had started using the HydroxyChloroquine/z-pack, and she said that as of leaving N.O. 5 days ago, they were not. She was unfamiliar with the news on this, and asked me about what was going on. Asked a lot of good questions...at a distance of about 3 meters.
Said her department needed an official approval from the Department Head, or someone higher up, before incorporating the regimen into their "Standard of Care". She is heading back now, and was going to ask about this when checking back in. Felt that while she was away, they probably did start the combo, if it was being used elsewhere with success.
Said they were swamped with patients, and had opened 3 COVID sections in their ICU.
Gov. Cuomo -- who I now designate a world-class expert on this subject -- predicts 40 to 80% of the population will get it (video, minute 39). I do not know where he got those numbers from, but as he says, he has been talking to many experts. Anyway, as he explains, these percentages themselves are not the greatest worry. What we need to worry about most is a large fraction of the population getting infected quickly, and overwhelming the hospitals. If 80% are infected over many months, the hospitals can handle the serious cases, and the number of deaths will be low. If 80% are infected over ~6 weeks, it will be catastrophic. (The peak of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic lasted about 6 weeks.)
That "spreading out" is the first thing he explains in the video, and he goes back to it at minute 39. Listen to that section. His explanation and his tone are superb as I said. This is exactly what everyone needs to hear, and needs to understand.
Not to be doom and gloom, but I don’t think we are out of the woods on your bad case scenario. This story below states what the WHO is saying today, which is that the virus is accelerating. I have seen some people say that they are watching Italy more closely than ever to get a sense of when they can flatten things out. It will suggest how long it takes to get it under control.
Well I finally lost it!!!
I was just in CVS and saw a guy whose cart was FULL to the brim with hand sanitizer, baby wipes, soap, and everything that people need.
I called him selfish and told him about the people who need these types of things. I told him he should be ashamed of himself.
He said: “Are you done? Cause I really need to get back to restocking the shelves now!!
credit: Dr Ed Storms
Not to be doom and gloom, but I don’t think we are out of the woods on your bad case scenario.
Cuomo does not say anything that gives the impression we are out of the woods. On the contrary, he warns that it might happen. The first thing he says is "the numbers are bad, and they will get worse." I certainly do not think we are out of it.
Quote. I don't have a medical licence so cannot obtain Azithromycin
Yes you can (or could as of recently). Use the same web site for 24/7 global med that you used for hydroxychloroquine. There is a search blank though it's a bit faint on my screen. Search for azithromycin and if they are still selling it, they don't seem to care about prescriptions. Hydroxychloroquine has the same prescription requirements in the US as does azithromycin. The problem in India is that the government will (or has already started to) clamp down on exports of medicines of all types.
