Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • Italy remains stable, thank goodness. This means a nation-wide shutdown can work. At least to some extent. This graph is generated by me, including today's Worldmeters total which is 5,909. The peak was on March 21. It was increasing at 1.2 before that. If it had continued, it would now be at 19,579 per day, with 100,000 cases today, instead of 80,500.



  • Italy remains stable, thank goodness. This means a nation-wide shutdown can work. At least to some extent. This graph is generated by me, including today's Worldmeters total which is 5,909. The peak was on March 21. It was increasing at 1.2 before that. If it had continued, it would now be at 19,579 per day, with 100,000 cases today, instead of 80,500.



    That may only work for medium to small sized countries. Good news same way!

  • Italy remains stable, thank goodness. This means a nation-wide shutdown can work. At least to some extent. This graph is generated by me, including today's Worldmeters total which is 5,909. The peak was on March 21. It was increasing at 1.2 before that. If it had continued, it would now be at 19,579 per day, with 100,000 cases today, instead of 80,500.




    interesting that their daily cases have seemed to flatten, but the number of deaths is going up, 712 yesterday and 919 today. Perhaps people are just succumbing to the illness after a week or two in the hospital. So deaths are a bit of a lagging number.

  • 179 contacts not 172 - 36 confirmed cases with one death in Nigeria with completely open borders and no quarantine up.until now - maybe they are deprived of chloroquine once they enter hospitals? Maybe that's why they are all in hiding!:)


    Dr Richard:


    No-one here is against hydroxychloroquine/Azithromycin (though evidence for latter is much weaker, see the excellent statistical review of the Marseille trial) as possible treatment. We all, I think, agree that in view of the non-treatment risks the data so far is at least worse very rapid and urgent testing to see what will help. And in many places it is getting that.


    You do your cause NO FAVOURS by claiming this African evidence.


    (1) Africa is not testing (130 tests for whole of Nigeria) hence official case load will be essentially zero.

    (2) Africa population profile is much younger. That means (probably) many more cases will be asymptomatic, (certainly) many more cases will have mild symptoms no-one notices, and death rate will be much lower.


    Your 170 contacts. Factor in the rate at which contacts are infected (relatively low) and then the younger population profile. What you see are the results are roughly what you'd expect, similar to elsewhere.


    We all desperately hope, with you, that there will be good drugs to treat COVID. Thus far there are many candidates: favipiravir actually has the most convincing trial evidence thus far. And, if these do work, it is likely that well tolerated combination drug therapies will be significantly better. So there is much to hope for, and this is another reason why Shane's "let em burn now for the good of the economy" suggestion is not good. Infections in 6 months will be much better treated than infections now. But, it takes time and accurate careful tests data to work out how best drugs should be used.


    That also does not preempt compassionate use of any drugs that might help now. It is, as SOT has so eloquently pointed out, a real dilemma for physicians but in individual cases where a drug like hydroxychloroquine is well tolerated surely even on the off chance it helps 10% of severe patients you might give it to those before better evidence is available.


    Incidentally, if you want a better treatment consider passive antibody serum. Expensive, and it needs recovered patients, but very likely to be effective.


    THH

  • Spain Finds 70% of China's Virus Tests Are Fake

    Read more: Spain Finds 70% of China's Virus Tests Are Fake | Newsmax.com


    Worth pointing out:


    One chinese company has donated tests which have an unnaceptable high false negative rate, making them unusable.


    The overall standard of the in-China testing is probably much better than that or they would not have controlled the epidemic. Though, having said that, extremely fast track-and-isolate even without testing might be enough.


    I find the (mainly US) suspicion of China weird.


    I am no apologist for the regime. Xi JinPing is unpleasant and taking China in the wrong direction through repression of even friendly free speech after it had looked as though the country might be improving: a shame his hold on power is so absolute. But give credit where it is due, after an expected coverup (the fault of the untransparent Chinese system) they ate their humble pie and behaved with model transparency and fast action. As a result the Chinese economy will recover with much much less cost than that of most western countries.


    You know that China is now charging 500,000 Yuen for non-Chinese nationals to migrate for shelter to China? It is the safest place from COVID in the world.

  • No, the coronavirus wasn’t made in a lab. A genetic analysis shows it’s from nature


    The paper delivers absolutely no proof for this. Its just an educated guess of the editors.


    You can be 1000% sure that nobody working in the genome field will ever give you a proof for a non natural origin as this would certainly stop/delay all genetic lab work world wide for months.


    As mentioned sometimes before already. All 300'000 natural bat virus are known. As long as nobody can give a plausible short path to covid-19 we must strongly assumed its lab-made. It is absolutely mandators to find the precursor else you can shredder all these nonsensical papers claiming natural origin.

  • Jed, Yes, I know there is a delay between symptoms and death - duh.


    I would not say Italy is stable until the death rate and severe case numbers come down. Until then there is stress to Italy and the hospitals and families and are anything but stable. There could be metalations that escape the testing. There can be a change in the CFR and so on. There cannot be stability until there is less not more strain on the hospitals. Until then there is great strain on the country.


    I don't think many people in Italy would say they things were "stable" now only that there are fewer confirmed cases.

  • I would not say Italy is stable until the death rate and severe case numbers come down.


    If a person dies in a hospital room then the doctors must wait at least 3 hours to enter the room. This is the minimum time it takes for the aerosols to settle. They (doctors/personal) have no level II/III fully body protection suits to clean up the room. The undertakers do work at high risk. The whole story is a real big mess. Nobody knows till now how many old/sick people did die at home in Wuhan/Italy so far. If you look at the current death rate in Italy then you have to multiply the figures for Wuhan by 3-5.


    Germany positives figures are skyrocketing today and the same will soon happen in Switzerland too again as nobody in the shop I visited today did wear even the simplest mask!! We were complete outsiders...with protective mask and protective gloves. 50-80% of the positives show no to faint symptoms only. Thus the story develops as a no brainer now.


    May be the most honest thing we can do is sending old people home with a selection of medicaments and just ask for the apartment key in case it did not help ...


    In UK some real emergency seems to show up soon with shops in medium size cities looking like totally plundered... (This is from private connections).