Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • Someone posted that both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin have adverse effects on heart rhythm. But in the case of hydroxychloroquine, it may happen only after a longer period of time than required to treat COVID-19. And in the case of azithromycin, at least one paper suggests the determination is in error. Someone said the problem is atrial fibrillation? I did not see that. I did see concern about "prolonged Q-T interval" on the EKG. This issue, if really present, can cause lethal arrhythmias due to a phenomenon of cardiac conduction called "torsade de pointes" (from the French I suppose) and also ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation. These are very very unlikely in short term use in people who do not have pre-existing heart disease. People who do must consult their cardiologist for advice including how to monitor their heart if they take the drugs.


    I will post links when I have more time. Anyway, the issue is a bit moot. There is, as of yet, no persuasive evidence for taking the drugs to prevent COVID-19.

    And who said that self-medication is easy?

  • Number of cases, new cases, active cases, and serious cases in Italy increased from yesterday.


    On the brighter side, the number of new cases and new deaths decrease in the US and in the world overall so far today.

    Now if we can just keep it up.

  • You want to recast your statement of a "stable" situation to a lowering of the multiplier factor instead of saying that your use of "stable" was wrong and misleading.


    Not me. You are saying the Italian Minister of Health was wrong and misleading. I guess you know more than he does. Or you think you do.

  • Number of cases, new cases, active cases, and serious cases in Italy increased from yesterday.


    New cases increased from 5,909 to 5,974. That's 65 more cases, or 1%. It is 229 fewer cases than the day before that (March 27). In the context of an epidemic, that's good news. It means the trend from the last 7 days is continuing. The growth rate has not reverted to 1.3 per day.


    Here is the graph including today's data.



    On the brighter side, the number of new cases and new deaths decrease in the US and in the world overall.


    That is incorrect. New cases and deaths increased in the U.S. and the world yesterday. U.S. data for today is not available yet, because the day is not over. U.S. data is revised many times during the day. The Italians only post data once a day. New cases in the U.S. are running at about 940 per hour. There are 15,556 as of 16:30, so I guess there will be another ~7,000 today, total ~22,560. That would be an increase of 1.22 over yesterday. A lot better than 1.3, which has been the norm this month.


    Japan is up to 194 daily new cases (as of 5 p.m. U.S. time.) Most of the cases are in Tokyo. This is scaring the hell out of them. As it should. They should stop with the pretend lockdown of Tokyo and do a real one. Fortunately, they did close all of major parks and cancel cherry blossom viewing the other day.

  • That's what the Min. of Health and I are saying.

    Not me. You are saying the Italian Minister of Health

    First the case numbers in Italy are still going up so it is not flat nor stable with 5 day averages continuing to have multipliers above 1.


    You are not consistent and contradict yourself. You flip flop on what you say. ("and I are saying.... Not me...")_ OK I give up. you are disingenuous and there is not need to proceed. Go find someone else to try annoy and induce with your arguments.

  • First the case numbers in Italy are still going up so it is not flat nor stable with 5 day averages continuing to have multipliers above 1.


    Nope. The multiples for the last seven days have been: 0.85, 0.86, 1.10, 0.99, 1.19, 0.95, 1.01. Average 0.99. That's down, not up. It is also remarkably stable, and the Minister said.


    You are not consistent and contradict yourself. You flip flop on what you say. ("and I are saying.... Not me...")_


    I never said "not me." I said I agree with the Minister of Health, and with every expert who has discussed this. You don't agree with them. Or with me.


    OK I give up.


    Good!


    you are disingenuous and there is not need to proceed. Go find someone else to try annoy and induce with your arguments.


    I am not disingenuous, but you are innumerate.

  • Tokyo is pretty quiet, pretend lock-down or not -this is the Shibuya webcam, and as you may know this is the busiest street crossing in the world, normally used by 1M people a day.


    It is 5:00 in the morning. It is never busy at that hour. That's a real-time webcam.


    The news says that Akihabara was jammed with young people yesterday. Stupid young people!


    I have not heard that the streets are quieter, but I have not watched today's news. We watch it at 7 p.m. our time, 12 hours after is is broadcast. So I am always a half-day behind.

  • THHuxleynew wrote CV initial dose vs severity of symptoms


    https://www.newyorker.com/maga…s-behave-inside-a-patient


    If the severity of the disease is proportional to the initial viral load then reducing the load with anti-viral drugs would give a prophylactic effect (as I think is happening in Africa with use of CQ and other anti-malarial quinine analogues)., HCQ/AZM/Zn therapy may work by limiting viral load before it reaches cytokine storm-inducing levels, allowing the immune system to build up and meet the infection without any tissue destructive consequences in the lungs. Relegating severe COVID-19 to a less acute milder form which does not require hospitalization, as Dr Zelenko has been able to do using this therapy in New York. Have the Italians started using this therapy since March 20 accounting for the plateau in new cases since then? Other antiviral RNA polymerase inhibitors would also have the same effect of reducing the viral load and thus the severity of the illness.

  • Italy coronavirus death toll surges past 10,000; lockdown extension likely

    "The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy barreled past 10,000 on Saturday, a figure that made an extension of a national lockdown almost certain."

    last seven days

    innumerate?? 7 is not 5

    They are not the same you should know.

    I never said "not me."

    That is why I say disingenuous --see you post #1612 After all I gave your direct quote. You surely did say that.


    The current number of deaths for Italy is 10,023 so far today and the day is not yet over.

  • The best we can say about HCQ efficacy is summarised here:


    https://www.statnews.com/2020/…-know-hydroxychloroquine/


    + AZM? Very little evidence as yet from Marseille or elsewhere. Let us hope we get better study results soon.


    Just for clarification; this latest French study I posted today is new. The report this Statnews article references was the earlier study. Gautret is the lead author for both. As they, and many other critics pointed out, the first left much to be desired. Mainly because 6 of the 20 taking the HCQ dropped out.


    I am not sure if this new study is superior to the last, but it covered 80 patients (6 from the earlier study) during a 3 day period, with 6 day follow up. 78 clinically improved, with the viral load decreasing rapidly.


    I am no medical researcher, but that sounds very promising to me. Any reason not to be optimistic?

  • Some chemical justification for HydroxyCQ plus Zithromax (azithromycin)..

    Mar24 chemrxiv..

    Azithromycin appears to directly stop the virus spike binding to the ACE2 receptor on lung tissue

    HydroxyCQ indirectly stops the spike binding.


    from

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/samarth-sandeep-81a02487


    https://github.com/IffTech/Hyd…uineAzithromycinPaperData

    https://chemrxiv.org/articles/…n_-_ACE2_Complex/12015792


    "Binding sites on the SARS-COV-2 Envelope (E) Protein identified by Polar+, a quantum mechanical optimization tool built by Iff Technologies



    Discussion.


    Based on the binding results provided above, hydroxychloroquine by itself appears to be ineffective

    in directly inhibiting the SARS-CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interaction.

    Instead, it seems to serve to increase the acidity of the ACE2 system in the interaction between the ACE2

    and SARS-CoV-2 spike that could in many cases result in the degradation of the spike, and
    potentially the discontinuation of the virus’ ability to spread further.


    On the other hand, azithromycin provides high binding affinity when adjusted for energetics and

    has a much better ability at directly targeting the binding interaction point between the
    SARS-CoV-2 spike and ACE2.


    Much of this has to do with azithromycin’s nearly symmetric design:

    this allows the small molecule to effectively handle binding with ligands between both
    the spike and the ACE2,



    Big Pharma would charge mega dollars for this free IP.

  • Many people feel tha latest HCQ stypy by Raoult is bad and negative. result are similar to what Chinese have reported from usual O2 treatment...

    Edit: some report that on reducing contagiosity time it may be useful... not for curing...


    Better candidates reported, and clearerd

    Leronlimab on 7 patients in ICU... some better gone out of ICU , some had improven status about cytokin storm. Need to be confirmed.

    https://t.co/ENDtaYBsjN?amp=1


    I had clearer reprots that Remdesivir was multiply reported as good in ICU.

    Japanese Avigan have good reports too

    https://fortune.com/2020/03/28…ipiravir-avigan-fujifilm/

    Edit: it seems some says it is over hyped too...


    Using plasma from immunized/cured patients seems to work well, and send patients out of ICU.


    we have a big EU trial launched... Leronlimab is among, as HCQ, but I dont see favipiravir/avigan...

    as Wyttenbach reported

    https://www.vfa.de/de/arzneimi…navirusinfektion-covid-19


    the world equivalent trial is solidarity

    https://www.sciencemag.org/new…ng-coronavirus-treatments


    I think it is including favipiravir




    some report epidemic peak in Lombardy (nort Italy) at about 0.05% of mortality.

    Some reports big lies of Chinese authority with mortality about 45k in china, which if you assume most are in Hubei (about 50Mn people) is of same ratio.


    here is the article matching the long video of John Ionnanidis I put earlier

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/…ns-without-reliable-data/


    take care, but don't despair.

    #stayathome

  • India's biggest bigPharm donates 3 miilion $ to Covid battle


    Sun Pharma has committed to donate Rs 25 crore worth of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQS), Azithromycin, other related drugs

    and hand sanitisers to support India's fight against coronavirus pandemic, according to a company statement. The national task force for COVID-19 constituted by Indian Council of Medical Research has recommended HCQS as prophylaxis of the infection for high risk population.

    Read more at:

    https://economictimes.indiatim…m=text&utm_campaign=cppst


    Note.. 1 crore = 10 million in Indian numbering system.

  • If the severity of the disease is proportional to the initial viral load then reducing the load with anti-viral drugs would give a prophylactic effect (as I think is happening in Africa...


    Was just chatting to a London doctor (GP), whose surgery has 30 staff, 10 white, 10 asian, 10 black. As keyworkers they are are not part of the general lockdown, and only avoiding work if displaying symptoms.


    All the asians, and half the whites are off work with a sore throat and fever.


    Now I'm no statistician, but I'm pretty sure those numbers are more significant that the infamous Raoult/Chloroquine study...


    The Hot Tip is that turmeric tea is the efficace.


    Also, the UK banned exports of chloroquine long before the Raoult study was released, around the same time the Chinese noted it's apparent benefits.