Covid-19 News

CV initial dose vs severity of symptoms

https://www.newyorker.com/maga…s-behave-inside-a-patient

Quote from oldguy

You want to recast your statement of a "stable" situation to a lowering of the multiplier factor instead of saying that your use of "stable" was wrong and misleading.

Not me. You are saying the Italian Minister of Health was wrong and misleading. I guess you know more than he does. Or you think you do.

Quote from oldguy

Number of cases, new cases, active cases, and serious cases in Italy increased from yesterday.

New cases increased from 5,909 to 5,974. That's 65 more cases, or 1%. It is 229 fewer cases than the day before that (March 27). In the context of an epidemic, that's good news. It means the trend from the last 7 days is continuing. The growth rate has not reverted to 1.3 per day.

Here is the graph including today's data.

Quote from oldguy

On the brighter side, the number of new cases and new deaths decrease in the US and in the world overall.

That is incorrect. New cases and deaths increased in the U.S. and the world yesterday. U.S. data for today is not available yet, because the day is not over. U.S. data is revised many times during the day. The Italians only post data once a day. New cases in the U.S. are running at about 940 per hour. There are 15,556 as of 16:30, so I guess there will be another ~7,000 today, total ~22,560. That would be an increase of 1.22 over yesterday. A lot better than 1.3, which has been the norm this month.

Japan is up to 194 daily new cases (as of 5 p.m. U.S. time.) Most of the cases are in Tokyo. This is scaring the hell out of them. As it should. They should stop with the pretend lockdown of Tokyo and do a real one. Fortunately, they did close all of major parks and cancel cherry blossom viewing the other day.

Quote from JedRothwell

That's what the Min. of Health and I are saying.

Quote from JedRothwell

Not me. You are saying the Italian Minister of Health

First the case numbers in Italy are still going up so it is not flat nor stable with 5 day averages continuing to have multipliers above 1.

You are not consistent and contradict yourself. You flip flop on what you say. ("and I are saying.... Not me...")_ OK I give up. you are disingenuous and there is not need to proceed. Go find someone else to try annoy and induce with your arguments.

The best we can say about HCQ efficacy is summarised here:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/…-know-hydroxychloroquine/

+ AZM? Very little evidence as yet from Marseille or elsewhere. Let us hope we get better study results soon.

Quote from oldguy

First the case numbers in Italy are still going up so it is not flat nor stable with 5 day averages continuing to have multipliers above 1.

Nope. The multiples for the last seven days have been: 0.85, 0.86, 1.10, 0.99, 1.19, 0.95, 1.01. Average 0.99. That's down, not up. It is also remarkably stable, and the Minister said.

Quote from oldguy

You are not consistent and contradict yourself. You flip flop on what you say. ("and I are saying.... Not me...")_

I never said "not me." I said I agree with the Minister of Health, and with every expert who has discussed this. You don't agree with them. Or with me.

Quote from oldguy

OK I give up.

Good!

Quote from oldguy

you are disingenuous and there is not need to proceed. Go find someone else to try annoy and induce with your arguments.

I am not disingenuous, but you are innumerate.

Quote from Alan Smith

Tokyo is pretty quiet, pretend lock-down or not -this is the Shibuya webcam, and as you may know this is the busiest street crossing in the world, normally used by 1M people a day.

It is 5:00 in the morning. It is never busy at that hour. That's a real-time webcam.

The news says that Akihabara was jammed with young people yesterday. Stupid young people!

I have not heard that the streets are quieter, but I have not watched today's news. We watch it at 7 p.m. our time, 12 hours after is is broadcast. So I am always a half-day behind.

THHuxleynew wrote CV initial dose vs severity of symptoms

https://www.newyorker.com/maga…s-behave-inside-a-patient

If the severity of the disease is proportional to the initial viral load then reducing the load with anti-viral drugs would give a prophylactic effect (as I think is happening in Africa with use of CQ and other anti-malarial quinine analogues)., HCQ/AZM/Zn therapy may work by limiting viral load before it reaches cytokine storm-inducing levels, allowing the immune system to build up and meet the infection without any tissue destructive consequences in the lungs. Relegating severe COVID-19 to a less acute milder form which does not require hospitalization, as Dr Zelenko has been able to do using this therapy in New York. Have the Italians started using this therapy since March 20 accounting for the plateau in new cases since then? Other antiviral RNA polymerase inhibitors would also have the same effect of reducing the viral load and thus the severity of the illness.

Italy coronavirus death toll surges past 10,000; lockdown extension likely

"The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy barreled past 10,000 on Saturday, a figure that made an extension of a national lockdown almost certain."

Quote from JedRothwell

last seven days

innumerate?? 7 is not 5

They are not the same you should know.

Quote from JedRothwell

I never said "not me."

That is why I say disingenuous --see you post #1612 After all I gave your direct quote. You surely did say that.

The current number of deaths for Italy is 10,023 so far today and the day is not yet over.

Some chemical justification for HydroxyCQ plus Zithromax (azithromycin)..

Mar24 chemrxiv..

Azithromycin appears to directly stop the virus spike binding to the ACE2 receptor on lung tissue

HydroxyCQ indirectly stops the spike binding.

from

https://www.linkedin.com/in/samarth-sandeep-81a02487

https://github.com/IffTech/Hyd…uineAzithromycinPaperData

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/…n_-_ACE2_Complex/12015792

"Binding sites on the SARS-COV-2 Envelope (E) Protein identified by Polar+, a quantum mechanical optimization tool built by Iff Technologies

Discussion.

Based on the binding results provided above, hydroxychloroquine by itself appears to be ineffective

in directly inhibiting the SARS-CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interaction.

Instead, it seems to serve to increase the acidity of the ACE2 system in the interaction between the ACE2

and SARS-CoV-2 spike that could in many cases result in the degradation of the spike, and
potentially the discontinuation of the virus’ ability to spread further.

On the other hand, azithromycin provides high binding affinity when adjusted for energetics and

has a much better ability at directly targeting the binding interaction point between the
SARS-CoV-2 spike and ACE2.

Much of this has to do with azithromycin’s nearly symmetric design:

this allows the small molecule to effectively handle binding with ligands between both
the spike and the ACE2,

Big Pharma would charge mega dollars for this free IP.

India's biggest bigPharm donates 3 miilion $ to Covid battle

Sun Pharma has committed to donate Rs 25 crore worth of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQS), Azithromycin, other related drugs

and hand sanitisers to support India's fight against coronavirus pandemic, according to a company statement. The national task force for COVID-19 constituted by Indian Council of Medical Research has recommended HCQS as prophylaxis of the infection for high risk population.

Read more at:

https://economictimes.indiatim…m=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Note.. 1 crore = 10 million in Indian numbering system.

Quote from Dr Richard

If the severity of the disease is proportional to the initial viral load then reducing the load with anti-viral drugs would give a prophylactic effect (as I think is happening in Africa...

Was just chatting to a London doctor (GP), whose surgery has 30 staff, 10 white, 10 asian, 10 black. As keyworkers they are are not part of the general lockdown, and only avoiding work if displaying symptoms.

All the asians, and half the whites are off work with a sore throat and fever.

Now I'm no statistician, but I'm pretty sure those numbers are more significant that the infamous Raoult/Chloroquine study...

The Hot Tip is that turmeric tea is the efficace.

Also, the UK banned exports of chloroquine long before the Raoult study was released, around the same time the Chinese noted it's apparent benefits.

Quote from AlainCo

we have a big EU trial launched... Leronlimab is among, as HCQ, but I dont see favipiravir/avigan...

as Wyttenbachreported

Italy got a lot of it from China some days ago. But even quick studies need 2 weeks...

Quote from oldguy

The current number of deaths for Italy is 10,023 so far today and the day is not yet over.

At Worldmeters, the Italian numbers are only posted once a day. So, anything above 10,023 will be included in tomorrow's numbers.