Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • Indeed. Almost meaningless. "Confirmed Coronavirus cases" is more a metric of the testing frequency than anything else. A better metric (but still not necessarily good) is the number of deaths in a village or region in comparison with the previous years


    Other experts disagree. Yes, in many countries the confirmed cases are only a fraction of the total, but they are still useful. They show the trends, and the distribution. They show that New York City and Albany, Georgia are hot spots. They are only fraction of total cases, but they are probably a consistent fraction, in one country.


    In Japan they are nearly 100%, because every patient goes to the hospital, even mild cases. Some people don't know they have it, but the government jumps through hoops to trace the known cases and find people who have mild cases. On the news every night they list all cases, and show how many cannot be traced (usually 4 or 5). In Korea, probably 90% or more are registered with public health agencies. In the U.S., no one knows, because we still do not have test kits or nurses to administer them. In Atlanta, people who are sick are told not to go to the hospital, because there is no room and if you are not infected, you may well be at the hospital.


    When you have some idea what the ratio of confirmed cases is to total cases, you can draw conclusions. You can also combine this metric with others, such as "the number deaths in a region in previous years." Together, these combined methods give a reasonably clear picture of what is happening.


    When you have no testing, no functioning public health system, no way to visit hospitals, and no government coordination, you might as well be back in the 14th century. That is more or less where we are in Atlanta, GA today. If you manage to get in the door at the hospital, you are back in the 21st century. Although, it may soon be the Northern Italian version of the 21st century, with 6% (??) case fatalities, given how many fat and unhealthy people there are in Atlanta, and how overcrowded our hospitals will be.




    This epidemic can only be controlled when the public is educated, informed, generally in good health, and when it has faith in science and the medical establishment, and when it cooperates. That is the situation in Japan, and the government is doing all it can to keep things that way. There was a spike of about 200 new cases the other day, which put the fear of God into everyone. P.M. Abe who came on national news telling people not to relax, and that the country might still see explosive, uncontrolled growth "like Europe and the U.S." 40 of the cases originated in one hospital. That's good, because a pin-point source makes it easier to track down other people who may have been infected.


    Unfortunately, the U.S. public does not meet any of those criteria; it is not educated, informed, healthy, and it has practically no knowledge or faith in science. The Italian public was also notably uncooperative until recently. People in Italy now say they deeply regret not taking this seriously, and not doing what the government recommended weeks ago.

  • Wyttenbach - what, send patients home with a supply of HCQ, Azithromycin, Zn and remdesivir if it is available from Gilead or Avgen from China? The problem here is that the government and NHS will not do anything so easy without WHO approval. We have to wait , and wait even in the light of all the positive evidence so far. My son seems to have had just a mild dose of COVID-19 and is recovering having drunk large amounts of tonic water for its Quinine content. I 'm afraid it's up to the individual to weigh up the evidence and decide which possible treatment might work or not. Here's a list of what we've been routinely taking for prophylaxis:

    Tonic water (20 mg/ml quinine) - evidence that it accumulates in the body to prophylactic levels (10 uM) over several weeks.

    Coconut oil 1-2g - contains Lauric acid and forms monolaurin in the body which blocks endosomal fusion limiting viral replication.

    Liquorice extract -liquorice allsorts as much as you can eat anti-virus agents as oldguy pointed out. Good source of thiamine which can be depleted by quinine use.

    Echinacea anti viral herbal remedy prevents colds & flu.

    Vitamins C 1g , multivitamin + Vit D+.Ca.

    Broccoli, baked beans, black or green tea for flavonoids.

    Blueberries strawberries, tomatoes for anthrocyanins.

  • 'Comparing my simplistic spreadsheet to professional models, I find that around April 12 my spreadsheet departs far from reality, and becomes useles'

    But I believe that professional models are not any better due to the lack of data.


    No, the professional models are much better. They have been predicting the numbers accurately, weeks in advance. They have lots of good data, from China, Japan and Europe. Not such good data from U.S., but you can extrapolate even when the margin of error is large. The overall trends are clear. New York knows how many patients are in hospitals, and they can measure the growth rate of hospitalized patients and make educated guesses about how many there will be in a week, or two weeks, and when the peak will come. They can do this even when they can only estimate how many cases are outside the hospitals and unregistered.


    If they start administering antibody tests, including some random testing of the general population, authorities will have a much better grasp of the overall infection rate, and the likely peak.


    You can also extrapolate backwards, from deaths back to the total number of cases (with a lag). You couldn't do this weeks ago because there were few deaths. Now, unfortunately, U.S. has ~500 deaths a day, and in 3 days we will have 1,000, and six days 2,000. Those are statistically significant numbers. You can draw conclusions from them. There is now no way to avoid that number of deaths. Even if we could magically stop the infections, bringing the daily new cases down to zero, there are thousands of terminally ill people who will surely die over the next few weeks, and their numbers double every 3 days, exactly the same rate as the daily case rate was, back when this cohort of sick people got sick. (In other words, with a lag.) The daily case rate has declined recently, so it doubles every 7 days instead of every 3 days. If that keeps up, it means that in a few weeks, deaths will be doubling every 7 days instead of every 3 days.


    The overall trend trend must stop fairly soon. In about a month. It can stop in two ways:


    1. The lockdown is effective and it continues for as long a needed. The epidemic reaches the natural peak and declines, because a large fraction of the population gets sick, recovers or dies. The rate remains predictable because medical care is generally available. Case mortality is no worse than 3.5%. We hope it is 1% or 2%.


    2. The lockdown fails, mainly because people ignore it, as they did in Italy until recently. Things go completely out of control. Deathly ill patients cannot get aspirin, and die in large numbers in tents in hospital parking lots or at home. We are back in the 14th century. The case mortality rate is somewhere between 6% and 10% -- the experts have no idea where it might be. Since 20% must be hospitalized now to survive, a large fraction of those people will die instead.


    You can see why the doctors are so anxious to flatten the curve and keep things in Scenario 1. You can see why estimates of the total dead vary from hundreds of thousands up to 6 million. It is not that the models are inadequate or imprecise. The problem is that the people running the models cannot know whether the public will cooperate and stay locked down.

  • That is only partly true. They did know of it, and tried to hide it. However they succeeded in containment. They told the W.H.O. other countries all about how they contained it, and offered help. Only Korea and Japan paid attention. The Japanese doctors say they learned many lessons and many practical techniques from their Chinese colleagues. If the U.S. and the EU had paid attention, we would have contained it. There is no question these techniques work. It cannot be a coincidence that three large countries have only 50 to 100 cases a day, no pressure on their hospitals, and practically no deaths. This is containment.


    The Chinese government has been evil, but the medical establishment and the scientists have performed magnificently. Plus, we must give credit to the political leaders for handing over control to the medical establishment, mobilizing resources, building hospitals overnight, and moving army medics and others into Wuhan.

    I would rather suggest:


    China has TOLD the WHO and the world they have succeeded containing it.

    As further info leaks out of the country the opposite will be found to be true.

    I suspect that many many thousands will die and the exact #’s will never be known.


    In Roseland67 world, I highly doubt it is contained and flat out do not believe the

    Data coming out of China.


    We’ll see

  • I think the WHO should recommend anti - viral therapy or at least allow governments to approve treatments now before full clinical trials with double blind studies are fully available. I'm going to carry on harping on about it and the fact that prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine is extremely likely to be successful given the absence of a massive expected epidemic in malarial infested regions. Or does the WHO still think all the Nigerians with COVID-19 are still in hiding?:)

  • China has TOLD the WHO and the world they have succeeded containing it.

    As further info leaks out of the country the opposite will be found to be true.


    That cannot be the case. The medical establishments in Japan and Korea implemented the same steps they did in China. Experts in both countries say they followed the Chinese models. These steps worked. The epidemic was controlled in Japan and Korea. In other words, the experiment was successfully, independently replicated, on a nation-wide scale, in two other countries. That cannot be a coincidence. If the data in China had been bogus, and the methods had not actually worked, they wouldn't have worked in Korea or Japan either.


    Those are independent replications.


    That's the beauty of science. "Take no man's word for it" (Royal Society motto.) You don't have to trust the Chinese. You see they have been replicated, so you know they are right.



    In Roseland67 world, I highly doubt it is contained and flat out do not believe the

    Data coming out of China.


    You don't have to believe the data from China. You can ignore it. You should believe the data coming out of Korea and Japan. Those are democratic, open societies with a free press. I am in daily contact with many people in Japan. I watch the national news every night. The epidemiologists have explained their work to the public on TV and in the news in detail. The case statistics down to each individual case (anomalously) is published by the government on the internet. I know what is happening. Everyone there knows what is happening.


    Therefore, the methods work. The epidemic is contained. It might yet get out of control, but there is no sign of that happening in Korea or Japan.

  • Most but 6 percent. You have a base for what you are saying or just a feeling like Trump?

  • As I indicated above:

    The methods may be working but he data from China may not be believable.


  • As I indicated above:

    The methods may be working but he data from China may not be believable.


    That is not possible. A method based on false data cannot work, by definition. If there were actually many more deaths in China, the same methods would have to produce many more deaths in Japan and Korea. A public health procedure that does not work for 1 billion people cannot magically start working for 120 million.


    This is fundamental to the scientific method.


    This is not a matter of "believing" or not believing what Chinese officials say. They have nothing to do with it. Nothing they say or do has any bearing on the data from Japan. This is a matter believing indisputable, objective, quantitative numbers and facts.

  • The daily totals for Italy are in. 5,217 new cases, compared to 5,974 yesterday. 0.87 times. It seems they have passed the peak. Is social distancing working? I sure hope so. It looks that way. I cannot judge but perhaps acquired immunity is also beginning to play a role? It is 1,616 cases per million population. But the actual number of cases is probably much higher, and they are concentrated in some geographic areas, so perhaps there are enough local people who recovered and have acquired immunity to have an effect.


    Here is the graph including today's data.



    As of yesterday, the graphs for Spain and Germany also look good. They show three days of stability or slight decline. I do not know if that is long enough to be a trend, or if it is still random.


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/


    In Japan there is a spike of 173 today (so far) and 194 yesterday. That's frightening. But reports say that most of the cases are from two hot spots: a hospital and a nursing home. If they know the source of the spike, they can suppress it more easily. The really frightening thing is to have 194 cases scattered around, coming out of nowhere, with no links to other cases. That's what the lead epidemiologist in Japan says. He says that's his worst nightmare. He's a professor who was involved in SARS suppression.

  • A method based on false data cannot work,

    It can.. if you have a team of epidemiologists in charge of faking the data..from Day 1..

    they are just as aware of the growth equation as anybody


    there have been a number of adjustments in the Chinese data in the early days..

    The data is subject to the dragon's coercion just as much as the lives of health professionals.

  • That is not possible. A method based on false data cannot work, by definition. If there were actually many more deaths in China, the same methods would have to produce many more deaths in Japan and Korea. A public health procedure that does not work for 1 billion people cannot magically start working for 120 million.


    This is fundamental to the scientific method.


    This is not a matter of "believing" or not believing what Chinese officials say. They have nothing to do with it. Nothing they say or do has any bearing on the data from Japan. This is a matter believing indisputable, objective, quantitative numbers and facts.

    Read what I wrote again Jed,

    and try NOT to have your answer formulated before you finish reading,

    mercy