Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • It can.. if you have a team of epidemiologists in charge of faking the data..from Day 1..

    they are just as aware of the growth equation as anybody

    That cannot be the situation in Japan. Things are too open. The data is available to anyone. The actual number of patients and dead people is small. People would see if deaths were being hidden. There are only a few deaths per day in major cities. If there were dozens, or hundreds, people would come forward and angrily denounce the government for lying. They would say: "I am sure there were more than 4 deaths in Okayama. I personally know 20 people who died!" No one in Japan would fear to say that, and press would mob the people who said it.

    We can be sure the epidemiologists in Japan and Korea are telling the truth. Therefore the methods work. Therefore, they must have worked in China as well. There is no logical, quantitative, or scientific basis to doubt it. "I don't believe the Chinese government" is an opinion which cannot be quantitatively checked or subjected to rigorous proof, whereas the statistics and curves in the Chinese data can be. The curves must be right. It is biologically impossible for the methods to work with a population of 120 million and another of 51 million, but not for China.

    These methods are not black magic. They are not inscrutable, or unheard of. They have been practiced in one form or another for all of recorded history. Track patients. Isolate them, quarantine them. In medieval and Renaissance, during epidemics, travelers showing up at the gates of a city had to show papers from doctors in their home town showing they were not infected. Governments had laws that cities and towns had to report how many sick and dead people they had.

    The Chinese implemented an internet based, big-data, real-time version of the same kinds of rules. Instead of having a few doctors and hospitals monitoring the population, they have thousands of groups in the field. The groups gathered the patients' medical histories, recent whereabouts, and the names of people they met with. They report this to epidemiologist groups at headquarters, who trace contacts and find patients who have no symptoms. No one could have done this in real time before the 21st century. The CDC or the Census Bureau could have done it in the 1970s, but it would have taken weeks to compile and tabulate the data. The epidemic would be over before they could trace contacts.

    In the 19th century such a large scale effort would have taken decades to complete using manual tabulation. Toward the end of the 19th century, U.S. census was getting out of hand and would soon take more than 10 years to complete. Herman Hollerith invented punch card machines, which sped it up. These evolved into computers. And these evolved into the internet based, cloud based computing and storage, that allows this effort. It takes far more processing and tabulation than the entire human race could do manually.

    The experts at the W.H.O. were surprised the Chinese could do this. So was I. But neither of us were mystified by the methods themselves. We have no reason to doubt such methods work -- provided you have the computer power and enough people to do the field work. We did not realize you could do this on such a large scale at such speed. I -- for one -- should have realized that. The experts in Japan and Korea may have been surprised, but they lost no time implementing similar systems. They did it within days. They say they learned from the Chinese. I am sure they being honest about that. No national expert likes to admit he learned from a foreign country.

    The U.S. should have done this, but it did not, as far as I know. I have friends of friends at HHS and CDC, and that's what I have heard. There has been nothing in the New York Times. I do not think there are plans to do it now, so even if we bring the epidemic under control with a lockdown, a month after the lockdown ends, the epidemic might reappear just as bad as it was. Or worse. Without a big data, internet tracking system and widespread testing, we are blind and helpless. I suppose we will have to remain locked down until they develop a vaccine, or until 60% of the population has acquired immunity. That will be an economic calamity. Nearly all of these deaths and financial losses will be totally unnessary. They could easily have been prevented, by methods that three major nations demonstrated and proved will work.

    Apparently the Federal government decided to surrender without a fight. It is a disgrace. It is the most costly defeat in U.S. history, in both money and lives. It may rival the German holocaust in the number of deaths it causes. The holocaust was evil. This is pure stupidity.

  • We can be sure the epidemiologists in Japan and Korea are telling the truth.

    I am sure of this.... but the epidemiologists in the Xi era are very different

    If it quacks like a duck etcc..

    I don't beiieve the dragon's data..even though Bruce Aylward may..…ts-after-video-goes-viral

    The dragon is no duck...ask the Taiwanese

    The truth will out... death by death…ic-covid-19-carriers-data

  • Echinacea?? not much evidence either way for Covid

    There is this…a-help-fight-coronavirus/

    Can Echinacea Worsen “Cytokine Storms”?

    Once coronaviruses enter the body, they force the immune system to mass-produce inflammatory molecules. Cytokines lose control and start damaging tissues, setting off a “cytokine storm” — the turning point that makes infection serious [20, 15].

    Too much interferon (type I IFN) causes lung complications in people with coronaviruses similar to the 2019 strain (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV)[15].

    Thus, interferon-boosters like echinacea might do more harm than good in people who are already infected with the virus [20]


  • just some interesting thoughts on the numbers today so far:

    1. The U.S. has about the same number of new cases as yesterday but about 1/2 the number of deaths. This is interesting because deaths to cases has been fairly consistent. So why the drop? Just a one day anomaly or something else?

    2. It is still interesting how the U.S. has many more new cases every day than Italy and Spain. But the U.S. has a lot fewer deaths than either country.

    My hope is that Doctors here in the U.S. are getting their arms around some kind of antiviral cocktail. Gilead announced expanded use of remdesivir in the last couple of days to severely ill Covid-19 patients. And Hydroxycloraquine is definitely being used more widely.

  • Emergency FDA authorization immediately for hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. Yay! "benefits may outweigh the risks..."…-anti-malaria-drug-155095

    A couple of thoughts... getting enough out will be difficult. Hundreds of millions of doses will be needed.

    At least, adding azithromycin to it will be easy. It isn't the first choice for this but it does help prevent bacterial pneumonia and broncho-pneumonia which often threatens viral pneumonia patients. I hope the definitive tests now underway are complete soon.

  • I don't beiieve the dragon's data..even though Bruce Aylward may..

    I suggest you address my point. If this data is wrong, and China has not suppressed the outbreak, how could it be that the Chinese methods worked in Korea and Japan? Experiment A fails. Repications B and C work. How can that be? These experiments involved hundreds of thousands of patients in Korea alone. How can it be that techniques worked with hundreds of thousands of people in one country, but not another? This makes no sense.

  • It is still interesting how the U.S. has many more new cases every day than Italy and Spain. But the U.S. has a lot fewer deaths than either country.

    That is because most of the U.S. infections were in the last week. The patients have not died yet, but they will. It takes two or three weeks. The U.S. death rate is increasing at the same rate as the daily cases were two or three weeks ago.

  • I am happy to report that Dr. Anthony Fauci is saying the same thing the Japanese epidemiologists have been saying. He says we must have testing, quarantine and tracing in place before ending the lockdown. I transcribed part of an interview with him on CNN:

    "You can curb restrictions but you absolutely must have in place the capability of going [to the city you open], testing, and testing in an efficient manner. [Not with 5-day delays.] Testing, knowing in real time if a person is infected. And then getting [the person] out of circulation, and contract tracing. Because if you release the restrictions before you have a good eyeball on what's going on there, you are going to get in trouble."

    He want on to say he is in favor of ending restrictions but only after testing, monitoring and tracing can be done.

    I have said that I am not aware of any plans to implement a nationwide system on a scale that could track every case. I am sure such as system could be devised. If China can do it, we can. It may be that Fauci and others are working on this, but as far as I know, nothing about it has been reported in the New York Times.

  • The Worldmeter data just turned over. The graphs for each country have been updated. The results are encouraging! I think the trend is clear in Italy, and probably Spain as well, where there has been a steady decline from the peak for three days.

    Things look better in several other countries. OF COURSE, these trends might reverse. Good news today is no guarantee that it will be good tomorrow.

    Italy, I already posted.

    Germany leveled out for three days and then dropped. I don't know if this can be called a trend, but anyway, it is not doubling every 3 days! Four days of not increasing gives the hospitals 4 more days to prepare for the worst.

    Has France pulled back from the abyss?

    The UK is down a little, for the second day.

    Finally, the U.S. has dropped, slightly, from 19.452 (the peak so far) to 18,469. That is a great relief. There are still so few people infected in the U.S. as a percent of the population that I believe this is due to social distancing, not acquired immunity. The sophisticated modeling sites might shed light on this. The New York Times reports that experts think social distancing is working in the state of Washington.

    Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working…us-transmission-rate.html

  • I suggest that there is no morality to prevent the dragon from getting

    the mortality rate correct

    but using fudged underestimates of both infected and dead

    That does not answer my point, which is scientific, not political. I am not discussing politics. I am asking how a public health measure that worked in two large countries did not work in a third. How is that possible? This is a public health measure based on the same methods used in 1666, only they are updated for the internet and computer era, so they work much better. (…-plague-samuel-pepys.html)

    If, as you say, the Chinese are lying and their methods failed, and they fudged the data, why did those same methods work in Japan? It is a simple question. I suggest you address it.

  • If, as you say, the Chinese are lying and their methods failed,

    The dragon got the mortality rate right but reduced the infected and dead figures..

    Their methods did not fail..

    The figures for total cases ,81470 and deaths ,3304 could easily have been reduced by 2 ..or 4..

    Another thing that I don't believe is that the first case was on Jan 10.. it was in November.


  • the mortality rate right

    I think I had the case fatality rate CFR in mind..

    not mortality rate..

    Case fatality rate=100 Deaths/Infected

    Who knows which one is right..?

    but I don't think the world's or China's are correct, or Thailand

    I think S. Korea is about right at CFR= 1.6%

    Taiwan has too few..

    and that China has reduced both the denominator and the numerator

  • As many as 10% of recovered coronavirus patients in China tested positive again after being discharged from the hospital, according to a report.

    Doctors on the front lines of the outbreak in Wuhan, China — where the virus emerged — reported that between 3 and 10% of cured patients became reinfected with the illness, though it’s unclear whether they were contagious the second time, the South China Morning Post reported....

    Wang added that surveillance of similar patients showed that 80 to 90% had no trace of the virus in their system one month after being discharged from the hospital, according to the report......

    Meanwhile, other quarantine facilities in Wuhan have seen about 5 to 10% of their recovered patients test positive again. The findings were reported by the health news outlet Life Times, which is affiliated with state-run newspaper People’s Daily.

    taken from…ositive-again-report-says