Covid-19 News

    It's official It's a shambles. Shut down JD sports warehouse immediately! 5000 employees in close contact spreading corona virus to their own families. Union rep on BBC says so but how will they earn any money? They certainly won't get it from Boris by applying for universal credit. So distribute the anti-virus drugs to the work force. Anyone listening out there?

    Testings are fine (30% accurate) but why not spend the cash on distributing HCQ, Avigan, Azm, Zn like the president of Indonesia has done? Or as Trump is planning? The only reason that Germany has reduced cases is they are only testing super-fit downhill skiers (BBC report). And one for the ladies! We can all have abortion at home now! Thanks NHS!:)What if they have complications?


    This trial is MUCH more significant than the Marseille one. It shows similar excellent results, but from a randomised double-blind controlled trial of 31 + 31 patients. In particular, the number of patients progressing to severe pneumonia was 0 (hcq) vs 4 (control). Al other clinical indicators, indicating faster recovery in the less severe cases, were better for the hcq treatment.


    It is of patients presenting with mild symptoms. Thus these good results may (likely from other indications) not stand when HCQ is used only after conditions have deteriorated to severe. That makes using it effectively in over-stretched medical systems with patients staying at home until illness becomes severe difficult. But ways round could be found. The dosage is 400mg/day for 5 days.


    It convinces me.


    One reservation. There might be several 1000 such trials in China. If only the positive get reported, we have selection of results at 1 in 1000 probability level which is enough to give these results. I think that is something we can fairly safely ignore.


    The 4 severe patients all being in the control group has a chance of 1 in 16 of happening if there is no effect of treatment on this indicator. You might reckon the likely reduction in severe illness due to this treatment is about 2/3, from 6.5% down to 2%, but the numbers here are so small this is not accurate.


    I get this (naively and incorrectly, but OK as first approximation) assuming a uniform prior for the probability distribution of severe illness with treatment in range 0 - 6.5%. for any such probability p the posterior likelihood of these results is (1-p)^31. To get the mean of this we integrate p(1-p)^31 and divide by the integral of (1-p)^31. We get 2% as the mean of the probability.

    • Official Post

    Don’t want to pop anyone’s hope bubble, but this article is a glimpse of something I have suspected and indirectly confirmed, and that is happening even in a country like mine where the pandemia is just beginning:


    The true numbers are much higher. Period.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bu…t-call-covid-19-lockdown/


    My own country was caught red handed doing this (5 fatalities unaccounted, and still unaccounted for even after the scandal broke a few days ago) and that was denounced by a major of the same political sign of our president. It is and ongoing scandal here.

    I think everyone including governments are simply in shock and their knee -jerk reactions as to know what to do is just that. Mindless clutching at straws. Ferguson's modelling cohorts have no certain way of predicting the future and its just a distraction for ministers to believe they're acting on the best scientific evidence. Whilst completely ignoring other scientific evidence from medical science. We can blame the WHO for that in future for not immediately recommending antiviral use to combat this corona virus epidemic. The evidence was always there, even without testing. These epidemiologists are simply not on the ball not making the link between chloroquine prophylaxis against malaria and blocking COVID-19 epidemics in Africa. We pay them for what exactly? Modelling? Maybe they should work for Vogue instead?:)

    As people talk about chloroquine and hydroxy... why don't we see comments on its use with zinc.


    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/p…oroquine-past-and-present

    Unfortunately, none of the analogs we made were active in the slightest, so I did what I should have done right at the start and ordered up some of the original powder sample for more stringent analysis. Sending it out for elemental analysis and checking all the metallic-element boxes revealed that it was about 40% zinc by weight, and a zinc-free sample was, you guessed it, about as active as corn starch.

    Quote from oldguy

    As people talk about chloroquine and hydroxy... why don't we see comments on its use with zinc.


    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/p…oroquine-past-and-present

    Unfortunately, none of the analogs we made were active in the slightest, so I did what I should have done right at the start and ordered up some of the original powder sample for more stringent analysis. Sending it out for elemental analysis and checking all the metallic-element boxes revealed that it was about 40% zinc by weight, and a zinc-free sample was, you guessed it, about as active as corn starch.


    My understanding is that the body regulates intake of Zinc and Zinc supplements will only be relevant in some cases, when dietary zinc intake is insufficient. I might be wrong?

    Here is a clip from a British comedy that perfectly captures the U.S. response to the Coronavirus.


    https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020…nts-coronavirus-response/


    Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”

    Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”

    Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”

    Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”

    .......agreed chloroquine is a Zn ionosphere and part of its action (RNA polymerase inhibition) is thought to be dependent on an increase in cytoplasmic or endoplasmic reticular Zn ions. This is where viral proteins are reinserted after synthesis by ribosomes into plasma membranes to form endosomes which then are secreted as fully functional new viruses out of the cells. I did mention this before. The research proposes this one action of chloroquine (blocking RNA dependent RNA polymerase) in addition to others - blocking viral entry via surface ACE 2 receptors either by a direct action to block spike protein interaction by competitive binding or secondly by modifying ACE 2 receptors via transferring ribose groups (glycolysation) modifying their activity intracellularly. It's complicated but nicely reviewed just Google it all. There is another mechanism of raising the pH of endosomes/lysosmes/Golgi thereby reducing endosomal fusion & thus secretion again of new viral particles. This I think is now it has a prophylactic action by just taking 500 mg a week before travelling to a malarial region. This is extremely potent because extracellular HCQ is concentrated 1000-fold in intracellular ER and endosomes and has a half - life of 30 days! So therapeutic levels effective against corona virus SERS-2 10 uM as shown in the Wang et.al paper may well persist over a similar timescale. Hence even tonic water 20 uM/litre quinine may be of benefit if taken daily as quinine levels would gradually accumulate within intracellular organelles. This is because once through the plasma membrane it is protonated (increasing pH lowering free H ions) and so once charged cannot pass through the membrane & is effectively trapped inside the cell or endosome. It's not cold fusion its lipid membrane fusion mechanisms involved here!:).

    I do not buy this idea that the economy will go to hell if we all sit around for months. During WWII, most Americans worked for the government making weapons. Making weapons is essentially throwing away materials and labor. The weapons are used up and they vanish. They contribute nothing to material prosperity. Most of the civilian economy was shut down. Every automobile factory was converted to war production. From an economic point of view, it was no different than having the government pay people to sit at home -- which is what we are doing now.


    The government collected a large fraction of income as taxes (especially from rich people) and then turned around and paid that money out to people. This went on for three and half years. Despite this, the economy did well. There were shortages, but also full employment and widespread prosperity.

    But yes dietary Zn is probably enough but maybe Vegans should take extra Zn supplements. Dr Dimitri Zelenko included it in his successful therapy in NY with HCQ and azithromycin. It's all on the net Google or Wikipedia is hotly updating it all. Great work guys!:)

    Quote from JedRothwell

    I do not buy this idea that the economy will go to hell if we all sit around for months. During WWII, most Americans worked for the government making weapons. Making weapons is essentially throwing away materials and labor. The weapons are used up and they vanish. They contribute nothing to material prosperity. Most of the civilian economy was shut down. Every automobile factory was converted to war production. From an economic point of view, it was no different than having the government pay people to sit at home -- which is what we are doing now.


    The government collected a large fraction of income as taxes (especially from rich people) and then turned around and paid that money out to people. This went on for three and half years. Despite this, the economy did well. There were shortages, but also full employment and widespread prosperity.


    The problematic issue is the amount of debt incurred (whether govt or private). Too much debt prevents economies from having growth and is generally a bad thing. After the debt increase in 2008 I doubt more is sustainable. We need world-wide devaluation: just agree to increase all salaries and consumable prices by 100%.

    Quote from JedRothwell

    “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”


    Behind the stage..

    We say .. don't tell the truth .. to protect the public.


    Nurse fired from Illinois hospital for saying not enough masks.


    "

    NYU Langone Health employees received a notice Friday from Kathy Lewis, executive vice president of communications,

    saying that anyone who talked to the media without authorization would be “subject to disciplinary action, including termination.”

    Jim Mandler, a spokesman for NYU Langone Health, said the policy was to protect patient and staff confidentiality.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news…red-if-they-talk-to-press

    • Official Post
    Quote from JedRothwell

    I do not buy this idea that the economy will go to hell if we all sit around for months. During WWII, most Americans worked for the government making weapons. Making weapons is essentially throwing away materials and labor. The weapons are used up and they vanish. They contribute nothing to material prosperity. Most of the civilian economy was shut down. Every automobile factory was converted to war production. From an economic point of view, it was no different than having the government pay people to sit at home -- which is what we are doing now.


    My father, who was a cabinet-maker and too old for the army, worked on the Lancaster bomber production line in WW2, and later on in prototyping Mosquito heavy fighters. He never complained about the wages, in fact war production raised wage levels, and the shortage of non-essential goods in the UK (almost everything except food which was rationed but generally enough was available) meant that any other business with something to sell survived.


    The difference this time is that there is no war work, no wages, and no handouts for the next few months. No pubs, restaurants, cinemas, hairdressers, builders, gardeners, window cleaners. taxis, a very long list. And those people will have no money very soon. That never happened in WW2.

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