Covid-19 News

    Quote from Shane D.

    Our results suggest a very low fatality ratio in those under the age of 20 years.


    In spain a young football trainer (39) died of corona. But the autopsy did show that he had an undetected leukemia! Most younger that die have also at least one precondition where smoking and speed (+ asthma) are the most frequent ones...


    Further, as mentioned weeks ago. The first dose is crucial for the outcome. For aids e.g. one must assume that a single first virus can be deadly in other cases you need dozens or some thousands in one batch!


    Two persons died of bird flue. One did run an infection of a chicken farm without mask... So he may be got millions of virus within one hour.

    Quote from Deleo

    Not a great day for us here in the U.S. numbers wise. Several states now at over 1k new cases per day. It is interesting that California, which is the largest State by far, has managed to have so few cases for its size.


    It is terrible news.


    California may be doing well because the whole state was locked down last week. I hope that is having an effect.

    Lancet

    "This under-ascertainment is the main factor driving the difference between our estimate of the crude case fatality ratio from China (3·67%) and our best estimate of the overall case fatality ratio (1·38%). The case fatality ratio is likely to be strongly influenced by the availability of health-care facilities"


    The Lancet researchers politely accepted both the crude death and crude infected numbers from China at face value.

    They did adjust the infected numbers up a little at Wuhan for censoring..so they could reduce the CFR to 3.6% from the rough 4.1%


    However the censoring that Lancet postulated is minor.. and unintentional.

    It is very possible given the nontransparent/accountable nature of the Chinese power structure

    (which filters the crude numbers) that the Wuhan death/infected numbers were intentionally underrepresented by large factors.,2..3...4.


    In the end it won't matter to the world.. whether it was 10,000 Wuhanese or the stated ~3000 who died

    because a whole lot more are going to die in poor countries such as Indonesia or Nigeria..unfortunately

    where the availability of health-care facilities is low.

    https://www.thejakartapost.com…-spread-in-indonesia.html

    Quote from JedRothwell

    It is terrible news.


    California may be doing well because the whole state was locked down last week. I hope that is having an effect.


    Once there is community transmission the course of the epidemic is unarguable, no speculation needed.


    Without very significant lockdown Ro is so high (much higher typically than flu) that it will increase exponentially until we get herd immunity effects. That is at a level guaranteed to be higher than western health systems can tolerate, and higher than is politically tenable in most places. Maybe the US is more in favour of the "kill the oldies for the good of the country" argument, which is respectable, at least in modified forms where strong support is given to locking down just those most at risk. But the politics is difficult to manage when doctors everywhere show pictures of people being left to die. The one uncertainty - how many people catch it but have very mild symptoms, has now been mostly answered from new data, and the difference between infections and cases is that infections roughly double cases for countries that count all those with typical symptoms as cases. Most don't, if you only count those dying of pneumonia as cases you get a much higher ratio of infections to cases, but also a much higher proportion of cases lead to death.


    With very significant lockdown Ro gets down to around 1, maybe <1. I think we still don't have much evidence about how low, and how this relates to lockdown, because the international field experiments on this are just starting! In any case local factors will vary Ro significantly in all these cases. It is just Ro is so high naturally that without lockdown or else intensive "track and trace" impossible now in UK or US the infection rate will be a positive exponential.


    You might ask why European countries (and the US, though the US has other more obvious reasons due to its current leadership) did not understand this and lockdown very early, with full quarantine for anyone entering the country. That would lead to no health system stress, many fewer deaths, and a much shorter lockdown period.


    I think three things:

    (1) Without population being convinced it is needed, proper lockdown cannot happen, but politically and because people will not obey it

    (2) Even for a short period proper lockdown is an extraordinary and expensive thing. No politician will want to invoke it, you have to be brave and farsighted to do so early, as the NZ prime minister did.

    (3) After such a short lockdown you still need to work out what to do afterwards, and the solutions (maybe S Korea style track and trace) do not sit nicely with Western demoncracies ideas of privacy.


    What this analysis leaves out is things changing. The virus could mutate unpleasantly, though this looks pretty unlikely given a relatively slow mutation rate and the fact that it is in a Darwinian sweet spot at the moment with high virulence. On the other hand treatment for those infected will almost certainly improve, and maybe improve a lot, say reducing mortality to 1/10 of what it is now. That would alter the politics and is the exit strategy I am hoping for.


    THH

    • Official Post

    From a source in Italy (translated).


    A new route used by the Sars-Cov-2 virus to enter the human cell has been discovered, in addition to the one already known from the Ace2 receptor: it is the sialic acid receptor, present in the tissues of the upper respiratory tract and used for the same purpose also by the virus Once entered, to replicate it uses different proteins including some in common with the HIV virus. Two studies by the Italian Institute of Technology on Arxiv indicate this. The discovery opens up new hypotheses about its contagiousness and possible drugs to use. The Sapienza University of Rome has collaborated in the studies, which have not yet passed the scrutiny of the scientific community.


    "We have developed a new predictive model to understand how proteins on the surface of the virus interact with human receptors," explains Giancarlo Ruocco, director of the IIT center in Rome. Here the researchers analyzed the interactions of the Spike protein, with which the virus locks on the Ace2 receptor (the same one targeted by sartan and anti-hypertensive drugs), and compared its ability to remain linked to it. Surprisingly, this ability was much lower than that of the Sars virus.


    Hence the idea of looking for a second receptor involved. "We have thus discovered that to enter the cell - continues Ruocco - the Sars-Cov-2 virus also uses sialic acid, present in the upper respiratory tract and also used by the coronavirus responsible for MERS". Now we will have to understand if the different mortality and infectivity of Covid-19 can depend on these two ways of entry. "This could clarify - he notes - why there are so many asymptomatic cases, but this is only a hypothesis that needs to be confirmed, as well as the results of the study".



    The other research, coordinated by Gian Gaetano Tartaglia of the IIT of Genoa, found that the part of the Spike protein that interacts with the sialic acid receptor changes a lot between the various virus strains, which could explain the great differences of Virus behavior observed in different populations. He also studied how the virus acts once inside the cell to reproduce. "We have thus seen that in addition to using some proteins already known and in common with other viruses, there are other specific ones. Of the latter, a dozen are shared with the HIV virus," explains Tartaglia. The suggestion of the researchers is therefore "to try to use, among the antivirals developed in recent years for HIV, those that act in a targeted way on these proteins - he concludes - Also in this case the data must be confirmed, and we hope that this our publication is a scientific word of mouth and sends us useful comments to understand ".

    --

    They believed Raoult's results! Maybe we will kave it here soon. My brother is helping in a double blind clinical trial in Newcastle:)


    3L34ymFb_bigger.jpg

    The Duran

    @TheDuran_com

    France Sanctions Chloroquine After 78 Of 80 Patients COMPLETELY Recover From COVID-19 Within Five Days - https://theduran.com/france-sanctions-chloroquine-after-78-of-80-patients-completely-recover-from-covid-19-within-five-days/… Image 8:38 AM · Mar 30, 2020·TheDuran

    • Official Post

    Wondering what out forum pundits will suggest in order to block new entrance way? Echinacea, molibdenium , imodium?

    • Official Post

    https://wwmt.com/news/local/mi…linical-trials-are-needed


    "Marcus Zervos, infectious disease doctor for Henry Ford Health System, said they had seen success with hydroxychloroquine therapy in a number of COVID-19 patients. He said those given the drug were able to get off a ventilator and out of the hospital faster."


    "Zervos said it typically took patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between two and four weeks to recover. He said hydroxychloroquine therapy was reducing that recovery time."

    Singapore Success Story.


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    • Official Post

    Reports are starting to come in from US Hospitals using HCQ. None say it does not work/ineffective, but neither do any say it is a silver bullet...yet. Some are admitting they have been using it a month, or a few weeks, and that the combo is now their protocol, or standard of care for COVID.


    IMO, incorporating it into their protocols is a very good sign these hospitals/doctors on the front lines, like what they are seeing. They are still too afraid to say this is a game changer until trial data backs them up, but their actions are speaking volumes. Something else in support of that, are the reports of doctors hoarding the medicine for their families/themselves.


    Almost all comments from the doctors at this time, are general in nature. Something like "it get's the patients off the ventilator, and out the hospital faster", "patients on HCQ have fewer complications, and decreased likelihood of viral progression", "it lowers the viral load". Not very scientific of course...as one would expect before the more careful studies are completed, but very promising under the circumstances.

    Good news, but once hospitalised the lung damage due to high viral load is probably slow to recover from. HCQ could only act a a silver bullet before this occurs, on the first sign of fever or cough developing. So GP's or pharmacies should make it freely available as it was before for treating malaria in the same way. Or has everybody forgotten that? You could buy chloroquine over the counter in pharmacies before the corona virus outbreak for travelling abroad. Now, when it really is needed, you can't. By order of HM government. What madness is this?

    Well,

    It seems to me that the case load stateside is coming DOWN, rather good, no?


    100,000 on Friday midnight and expected to double every 3 days. Should have been 200,000 on Monday midnight, but here it is Wednesday, 8:30 am: in Chicago and there is 188,000+, and new daily cases nationally are currently closer to 170.


    Still not good news by any means, but from a macro view, r0 appears to be trending lower stateside.


    Still critical to know:


    1. If once infected, are you then immune?

    2. Once your body is producing antibodies

    can you still spread the infection?


         




    • Official Post
    Quote from Dr Richard

    Good news, but once hospitalised the lung damage due to high viral load is probably slow to recover from. HCQ could only act a a silver bullet before this occurs, on the first sign of fever or cough developing. So GP's or pharmacies should make it freely available as it was before for treating malaria in the same way. Or has everybody forgotten that? You could buy chloroquine over the counter in pharmacies before the corona virus outbreak for travelling abroad. Now, when it really is needed, you can't. By order of HM government. What madness is this?


    I think just getting them to try it in a controlled, prescription only, hospital setting is a good first step. The health care system is normally very slow to adopt these new treatments, so we should be thankful this got into the system so fast. By the time these patients need hospital care, they are in bad shape. Still though, they are seeing positive results in these most sick of patients, so that is another good sign. One can only imagine what effect it would have on the situation, if/when the drugs are administered more freely.

    Yes that's all well and good but just think of all the lives that could have been saved if these drugs had not been restricted. Another 563 died yesterday here in the UK. Did the same restrictions on the sale of anti - malarial drugs happen in the US too, or have they simply run out because of stockpiling? You can't blame health professionals buying it up for themselves and their families. But to restrict it and ban all exports? What did the powers that be hope to achieve by doing that? Not surely because they were worried about the side-effects. If that were the case chloroquine would never have been available over the counter. Which leaves..........(all sorts of conspiracy theories which I won't go into because it will be banned for political reasons)........ gross incompetence?

    Quote from Dr Richard

    think of all the lives that could have been saved if these drugs

    Remember when the liberal media attacked Trump from even mentioning chloroquine?

    And before when he limited travel from China?

    Thousands have died due to their hate and political reasons.


    I know I bought my chloroquine back at the first week of Feb. Why as it taken so long?


    The side effect of having the virus and being in the ICU is death.

    • Official Post
    Quote from Dr Richard

    Yes that's all well and good but just think of all the lives that could have been saved if these drugs had not been restricted. Another 563 died yesterday here in the UK. Did the same restrictions on the sale of anti - malarial drugs happen in the US too, or have they simply run out because of stockpiling? You can't blame health professionals buying it up for themselves and their families. But to restrict it and ban all exports? What did the powers that be hope to achieve by doing that? Not surely because they were worried about the side-effects. If that were the case chloroquine would never have been available over the counter. Which leaves..........(all sorts of conspiracy theories which I won't go into because it will be banned for political reasons)........ gross incompetence?


    As I understand it, the main reason for the shut downs, is to stretch out the timeline so the hospitals are not swamped, and people die for lack of beds, ventilators, etc. It is not to stop the virus. I keep hearing we need to get 60-70% of the "Herd", or population, immunized either through infection, or if we can wait so long... a vaccine. When we get there, the virus will not be able to proliferate when it returns.


    This HCQ would seem the perfect strategy to accomplish that in a controlled way...if the restrictions are totally lifted like you say. Or at least, free doctors to prescribe it for whomever they want. As a prophylactic it could prevent many from getting so sick they need to be hospitalized. And for those who are more advanced, it could prevent their dying, and get them out the hospital quicker.


    It would work politically also, as the governments will have some cover to justify lifting the shut downs. The optics could be turned around on the media, now pumping out 24/7, pieces on the dying, dead, death counts, everything negative, to more positive stories of recoveries, and protection from the virus. Then we could all get back to work.

    Quote from Shane D.

    The optics could be turned around on the media, now pumping out 24/7, pieces on the dying, dead, death counts, everything negative, to more positive stories of recoveries, and protection from the virus. Then we could all get back to work.

    yes, the media is a problem.

    notice the CBS using pictures of Italian hospitals and saying they were NYC.

    I don't understand why they want to do things like that. I prefer the news about people sewing masks, donating food, neighbors volunteering to bring groceries to the elderly,.....

    • Official Post
    Quote from oldguy

    yes, the media is a problem.

    notice the CBS using pictures of Italian hospitals and saying they were NYC.

    I don't understand why they want to do things like that. I prefer the news about people sewing masks, donating food, neighbors volunteering to bring groceries to the elderly,.....


    They have been absolutely horrendous! All of them, even the few conservative news sites. I check headlines on all the majors just to try and spot trends...then get off as quickly as I can. So depressing, and morbid. The worse IMO, is the Daily Mail. So bad, it is almost funny, but they keep bringing back with those celebrity bikini shots. They know me all too well...the SOBs. :)

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