Quote from oldguy

I guess the Chinese think they have it all under control now

I think they are playing with fire.

The Japanese have been playing with fire for weeks, with half-measures and voluntary stay-at-home on weekends-only suggestions. Suggestions, not rules. Maybe they should issue a suggestion addressed to the virus. Finally, yesterday, the Prime Minister issued some kind of declaration of emergency. I don't know the details, but I hope it means they will be closing the live-music clubs and bars that young people have been crowding into. Tokyo, in particular, is getting out of hand. One-tenth of the population lives there, so if they lose that battle, they lose the war.

Most of the politicians there are gutless wonders, unwilling to take responsibility for unpopular acts. The public even now does not seen to realize what is at stake. I will say for the politicians, they have not downplayed the dangers, the way many American politicians did. But P.M. Abe kept saying "it is isn't time for a lockdown yet." By the time you think it is time, it is too late!

Some encouraging news:

The state of Washington returned 400 ventilators to the national stockpile. They are no longer needed. At the moment, New York does not need additional ventilators.

QUOTES from the New York Times:

Virus Toll in N.Y. Region Shows Signs of Leveling Off . . .

Data from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut suggested that steps to control the coronavirus’s spread might be working. . . .

Mr. Cuomo said the data suggested that the spread of the virus in New York was nearing its apex, but he emphasized that the state remained in a dire, unsustainable state of emergency. “If we are plateauing, we are plateauing at a very high level and there is tremendous stress on the health care system,” he said. . . .

Mr. Cuomo asserted that New York had done all it could to prevent the loss of lives that could have been saved.

“Have we saved everyone?” he said. “No. But have we lost anyone because we didn’t have a bed or we didn’t have a ventilator, or we didn’t have health care staff? No.”

In a notable shift from previous weeks, when he pleaded for more ventilators from the federal government and other states, he said New York was now adequately stocked.

“We don’t need any additional ventilators right now,” he said. . . .

Coronavirus: More ‘striking’ evidence BCG vaccine might protect against Covid-19

https://www.irishtimes.com/new…gainst-covid-19-1.4222110

"Over the 15 days, incidence of Covid-19 was 38 per million in countries with BCG vaccination

whereas the incidence of Covid-19 was 358 per million in the absence of such a programme.

The death rate was 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes and 40 per million in countries without such a programme,”.."

https://www.urotoday.com/video…ned-immune-responses.html

good luck all.

Fouci and other experts agree that testing and monitoring must be in place before the lockdown ends. Other countries implemented these things quickly, so the U.S. could do it before the end of the month. Two kinds of tests are essential: the test to see if you have the coronavirus now; and a test to see if you had it and recovered, and you are now immune. Both are needed for the person being tested and for the public health officials. Without widespread testing and analysis it is not possible to judge whether a community is safe to reopen. Without testing and monitoring, we will have to remain in lockdown for months, waiting for infections to fall to zero. This is what people did centuries ago.

Here is an article by a doctor about this:

The Real Tragedy of Not Having Enough Covid-19 Tests

How can we know when to reopen society without testing many more people?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…/coronavirus-testing.html

The size of the error bars in this graph show why we must have more data:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

We are stumbling around in the dark when the estimate of peak deaths per day range from 1,264 to 8,046, with 1,264 as the likely number. That's the same as saying, "who knows?!?" And this is an authoritative model, not some amateur guesswork. I am not blaming the people who made this model for having such gigantic error margins. They are doing the best they can with inadequate data. The only way to narrow the error margin and determine how safe we are is to conduct thousands of field tests on randomly selected people. It would be best if the tests could be self-administered to keep costs down, as I gather the antibody tests may be. They should include some sort of internet-based reporting. They give you a test, you give back the results. Some number of people will lie about the results, but you can make a reasonable estimate of how many liars there are.

My late mother, who was an expert at spotting lies in the Census Bureau data, had a dear old eccentric friend who never married. Her friend used to fill in the census form claiming to have 6 children and 3 husbands. A different set of answers every 10 years. My mother thought it was hilarious and told her: "Go ahead! You're not fooling anyone." They know how to spot anomalous data caused by lies or people accidentally filling in the forms incorrectly, such as putting their age where it supposed to be the number of family members. Along the same lines, the fact that the statistics today leave out many cases and some deaths does not mean the data is worthless. It still shows trends, and concentrations of cases in hot spots. With additional data from random sampling, it will be possible to extrapolate from what we have now to the full numbers. There will be a margin of error. There always is. For that matter there will always be false positive and false negative test results.

Actually, come to think of it, perhaps the best way to do the antibody tests might be to self administer the test in a pharmacy, get the result for yourself, and then hand over the test gadget to the pharmacist. Or show the pharmacist the result and have her tally it.

Quote from JedRothwell

The Japanese have been playing with fire for weeks, with half-measures and voluntary stay-at-home on weekends-only suggestions. Suggestions, not rules. Maybe they should issue a suggestion addressed to the virus. Finally, yesterday, the Prime Minister issued some kind of declaration of emergency. I don't know the details, but I hope it means they will be closing the live-music clubs and bars that young people have been crowding into. Tokyo, in particular, is getting out of hand. One-tenth of the population lives there, so if they lose that battle, they lose the war.

Most of the politicians there are gutless wonders, unwilling to take responsibility for unpopular acts. The public even now does not seen to realize what is at stake. I will say for the politicians, they have not downplayed the dangers, the way many American politicians did. But P.M. Abe kept saying "it is isn't time for a lockdown yet." By the time you think it is time, it is too late!

US Military Bases Near Tokyo Declare 30-Day Public Health Emergency

https://www.newsmax.com/us/vir…ity/2020/04/06/id/961633/

…….The move comes hours after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a national state of emergency over the growing coronavirus epidemic in the country...…..Tokyo has exceeded 1,000 COVID-19 infections, doubling its cases in less than a week. So far, Japan has 85 confirmed deaths....

U.S. new cases seem to have moderated. The rate of increase a few days ago would have led to a catastrophe, but it seems to have moderated. Gov. Cuomo said things are stabilizing. Two days are not long enough to be sure of a trend, but at least we are not headed off a cliff in the near term. Here is the graph including today's totals, 30,302, which may be revised.

Interesting videos analyzing the Chloroquine and Hydroxy-Chloroquine supply in the U.S. --

Is there REALLY a shortage of Hydroxychloroquine?

Is there REALLY a shortage of Hydroxychloroquine? Part 2

When we finally have double blind clinical proof that HCQ works for COVD-19 treatment how will all these unnecessary deaths be justified? Will the beurocrats and health ministers responsible for restricting its use and availability within the government, NHS and WHO be brought to trial for negligence? I have been saying this since the Wang at al paper came out with the first biochemical evidence . Letting patients die unnecessarily. Another 5000 before any action is taken?NO NEW DEATHS IN CHINA TODAY! They have been using it since February 20 if not before. Trump has made India release its stockpile after they stopped exports. PROGRESS is JUST too SLOW!

This is the overview link for all Swiss sub-states and their detailed corona reporting.

https://www.web.statistik.zh.c…19_dashboard/index.html#/ most sites have few info

The Swiss data repository : https://github.com/openZH/covi…9_Fallzahlen_CH_total.csv

ZH - biggest state - repository: https://github.com/openZH/covi…ahlen_Kanton_ZH_total.csv

Here you can exactly see that almost all victims are older than 65 years etc.

Very good is this French part side : https://www.vd.ch/toutes-les-a…e-dans-le-canton-de-vaud/

Some info of Zurich: https://gd.zh.ch/internet/gesu…h_corona_lagebulletin.pdf

Valais: https://www.vs.ch/documents/6756452/7008787/2020%2004%2006%20Sit%20Epid%20-%20État%20Stand

The RA guys have not found, from their data, any protective effect of HCQ - but this must be taken with caution since not an RCT.

Note that Trump's claim about lupus patient not getting COVID was wrong.

https://twitter.com/rheum_covid

Long term use of HCQ in treating lupus and rheumatoid arthritis used 200 mg doses once or twice a day ie 2.5 -5 mg/Kg, half the average dose for malaria treatment 10 mg/Kg. Works by suppression of immune system, suppressing Lupus and RA symptoms so long term use over periods of years would make patients more susceptible generally to viral and other infections. Dr Ban found yes they do get COVID-19 it has no prophylactic effect when used long term. Unlikely to be useful prophylactically then but used acutely during the initial phase of infection is more likely to be effective by competitive inhibitory action on ACE-2 binding of corona virus spike proteins preventing virus entry. Needs high extracellular 10 uM concentration hence 10 mg/Kg or 500 mg doses for several days only.

Re Dr Oz, According to Wikipedia, he’s a quack thanks to his support for homeopathy, and his belief in psychic communication with dead people.

But at least he’s a real doctor, unlike that fat bald clown with the suntan.

Dr Phil, that is.

Longer term HCQ use would have negative effects on the immune system but this would be offset by co-administration of antibiotics azithromycin., additional therapy with Avigan and remdesivir should be co-administered ideally with trace Zn so we'll eventually work out the ideal anti bat virus therapy and hopefully save a lot of lives and Boris too! Some news he's getting better.

predictions of the peaks for individual states of the USA

Pandemic's Peak – Here's The Date for Your State

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfr…ate/2020/04/07/id/961754/