Covid-19 News

    Quote from JedRothwell

    Sez who? They haven't even started yet! Antibody tests for similar diseases such as seasonal flu are quite reliable.

    This may have been a reference to preliminary antibody tests from China which actually were reported to be of poor quality as well as "home tests" purchased from scammers on eBay. Reputable vendors like medical equipment and professional pharmaceutical supply houses do not have the tests yet so you are correct.

    Jed,


    If you asked the same group of doctors about lifting the stay at home rules on

    December 31st, their response would be the same. “It MAY cause a rebound in February”.


    Now, if this group of doctors said,

    “It WILL cause a rebound and it will be worse than it is now”, we might get a better response.


    But since no one, including

    Group Think Blue or Group Think Red

    knows, many will assume it’s another media made “Crisis”.

    Planet earth simply will not stay homebound for the better part of a year because of a virus strain, it’s not realistic and will not happen.


    Many, if not most, will eventually take to the streets again, (I suspect Monday, May 4th),

    and take their chances. Let’s wait and see.

    Quote from Navid

    We dare you to give a fact based - evidence-based response to this. It won't happen. Your mind is spitting out rationalizations for information that doesn't fit into your current world view.

    For those that don't know yet, the Gates Foundation and others held a pandemic Corona virus simulation event in October 2019. They even gave out corona virus stuffed bears.

    That's un-bear-able. Actually, do you know where I could get one? Sounds cute.

    Quote from RobertBryant

    You won't be prescribing HCQ to the patient anytime soon..

    In fact HCQ is probably in rather short supply in a number of countries


    Maybe you could consult with Didier the lead author of the recent third trial paper..

    He certainly has put HCQ in the spotlight..

    Yes I might be prescribing HCQ+Azi, I ordered 600 doses (one course of therapy is 60 pills) from India which are "in transit by air post" as per excellent India tracking. I also secured 150 more doses from a pharmacy in SoCal for a vulnerable family I know whose members work in an assisted living establishment and I have one course of treatment for me. I also have 180 more pills coming from a Canadian pharmacy. HCQ and Azi are still available if you know where to look. McGuff shipped me 5 more Z-packs three days ago. I will have enough meds for a dozen or more patients. Remember I don't practice as such. I will try to avoid prescribing that treatment or giving out pills. But I may be forced to by circumstances in which case I will look to my experienced clinical colleagues for patient selection and advice.


    As to purported illustrious sources, I think I will just read their papers. But I am please to learn you are on first name terms with Dr. Raoult.

    Remdesivir

    “Of the 53 patients whose data were analyzed, 22 were in the United States, 22 in Europe or Canada, and 9 in Japan,” explains an abstract of the study in the New England Journal of Medicine. “In this cohort of patients hospitalized for severe Covid-19 who were treated with compassionate-use remdesivir, clinical improvement was observed in 36 of 53 patients (68%).”

    https://www.foxnews.com/scienc…ng-early-promise-research

    Quote from Toffoli

    Are you telling that Robert F Kennedy Jr.never said that?


    He probably did say it, but he is a certified nutcase. All vaccine deniers are nutcases, along with flat-earthers and creationists.


    People who deny cold fusion are not all nutcases, but they are all wrong. Most of them are misinformed, not crazy. A few, such as Robert Park, probably know the facts, even though he told me has not read any papers and he refused to look at one by McKubre that I tried to give him. I have a photo of Park eating lunch with two leading cold fusion researchers he has known for a long time. He is looking uncomfortable in the photo. I suppose that is because he knows they are good scientists. Yet publicly, he said that all cold fusion researchers are criminals or lunatics who should be "rooted out and fired," and he never backed off or retracted that. The scientists look pleased with themselves, but Park looks uncomfortable to me. Maybe it is my imagination.


    I suppose some vaccine deniers might be victims of anti-vaccine propaganda, rather than nutcases. They might be misinformed. Maybe, but it seems unlikely. I suppose that in grade school everyone learns about the history of medicine and public health. You learn that millions of people used to die from smallpox, polio and other infectious disease. I learned that in grade school, and so did my kids. Perhaps they no longer teach it in some U.S. schools? I wouldn't know. They still teach it in Japan. Perhaps people learned that, but they now think it is a lie. In the U.S., for the last several decades, there has been a growing mistrust of science and authority. I have the impression this began with the Vietnam war, and it has been inflamed by right wing commentators such as Rush Limbaugh and various Fox News commentators, such Trish Regan who until recently claimed that the coronavirus was fake news. (https://www.theguardian.com/me…ucker-carlson-trish-regan)


    I myself have not heard or read anything at Fox News, so I cannot judge. (I have not watched U.S. TV news since Walter Cronkite signed off -- I only see Japanese TV.) But I often read people who deny scientific facts and point to Fox News and similar sources. I cannot imagine why anyone would promote the views that vaccines cause harm or the coronavirus is not real, but people do. I guess they have political reasons, like Regan. I know exactly why some scientists, such as Park, oppose cold fusion. They told me why. They think it is pathological science promoted by criminals and lunatics. They think I am a lunatic or a patsy. I have no reason to doubt their sincerity. They often believe they know of technical reasons to doubt, but in all cases they are making elementary mistakes, such as confusing power and energy, or input power with noise. Again, I am sure they really do confuse these things. I have seen Morrison and others make these elementary mistakes in front of professional audiences at ICCF conferences. He wasn't faking. He wasn't trying to fool the readers.

    We dare you to give a fact based - evidence-based response to this.


    [this- conspiracy theory that Gates caused COVID]


    Gates, as a very rich and powerful person, is better than many because:


    (a) he has put most of his money into a charity benefiting us all

    (b) he listens to what the scientists say and does what any sane philanthropic person would do - he deals with the biggest threats.


    It has been obvious to the scientific community, and anyone with half a brain cell, that a SARS/MERS like respiratory virus is the most likely major threat to our civilisation. Many people have said this. Bill Gates is in good company because 11 people have made similar "it might happen like this" predictions. It has happened before (the WW1 Spanish flu every bit as nasty as COVID). Human actions (high density population, humans in biological contact with large numbers of animals, esp wild animals) have made the emergence of a new nasty virus from an animal reservoir (with a suitable small mutation) much more likely, as SARS and MERS show.


    So we know this because of SARS/MERS. COVID is the next one, entirely predictable. Not as bad is it could be, only 0,66% IFR. Let us hope that after COVID we will be more prepared for the next, perhaps worse, similar disease. I think we will. Genetic sequencing, modelling, and construction, gives us tools we have never had before, and the progress in the last 10 years has been pehnomenal.


    Because of that forewarning we have hope. The work then on preparedness on fast vaccine development means we have a decent chance of getting a vaccine in 18 months, not the 10 years previously.


    The work on related illnesses means we have a better than even chance of finding decent drugs within a few months. REMAP-CAP - very clever and likely to give us the best possible treatment 10X faster than previous methods - will maybe reduce mortality by 2 or 3 or 10 X with a few months. We are much more prepared than we would have been 10 years ago because of the scientists raising the alarm and Bill Gates and other visionaries putting money behind preparedness.


    That right wing Russian backed (sorry for USSR - but these conspiracy theories take me back 60 years) smear of Gates is despicable. Not just wrong, deeply, morally unpleasant and it makes me very sad indeed that anyone would be so misguided as to believe it.


    I would not want to suppress these morally execrable and intellectually incoherent theories. Better let all speak, and those of sound mind can answer and judge. But I am both surprised and sorry that they have a place on this site.

    Quote from Roseland67

    If you asked the same group of doctors about lifting the stay at home rules on

    December 31st, their response would be the same. “It MAY cause a rebound in February”.


    On March 10, epidemiologist Michael Osterholm predicted there may be a rebound in China after they slack off on their lockdown. He is an expert. But so far, he was wrong. See:


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    I think he did not realize the extent to which the Chinese and Koreans are testing and monitoring, with thousands of groups of field workers tracking down every case. They are carefully re-opening factories, first testing every employee. This was described by Alward of the W.H.O. Alward was amazed that these techniques work, but he saw that they did, and he described them in detail.


    The U.S. will also need thousands of fieldworkers to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine can be deployed. I suppose it will need roughly as many field workers gathering data as there used to be U.S. Census takers, decades ago when temporary employees of the Bureau went from house to house. Naturally, this will cost a lot of money. But it will not cost even 1% of the $2 trillion allocated so far to combat the virus.


    As far as I know, there is no plan to deploy thousands of fieldworkers, or to track every case, or even to test for active cases or antibodies on a scale large enough to reveal the extent of the epidemic, and warn us of developing hotspots. Perhaps they are working on such plans, but I have not seen anything about them in the mass media. Without these steps, it 100% certain the epidemic will rebound, soon after the stay-at-home rules are lifted. It is unavoidable, because you can never force the virus into extinction with these techniques. It is impossible to eliminate it completely from the U.S. population, and even if we could do that, it would come in the next day from some other country. Without testing, monitoring and quarantining, the disease will definitely come back in a month or two, with the same exponential increase, because at most only a few percent of the population has acquired immunity, and only in a few places such as New York City. We will go right back into a shut-down. We will do that even if no one orders us to. Most people will not go back to work, or back to shopping and a normal life knowing that they will likely get the coronavirus. You might get lucky and have a mild case, but most people end up like Chris Cuomo, with pain, a high fever for a week, waking nightmares and delusions. Many people say it is the worst illness they ever experienced. I have a life threatening case of seasonal flu, which was frightening. This is far worse. At my age, there is about a 5% chance of death. I'll sit tight until they deploy a vaccine. You don't want to put your hope in ventilators, either. 80% of patients put on ventilators die. See:


    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11…s-patient-trnd/index.html


    We simply cannot reopen society and have a normal life until the government uses the techniques developed in China and Korea to suppress the epidemic. It is physically impossible to re-open society. If this were 1918, the epidemic would have spread far and wide, killing millions of people in about 6 weeks, and the survivors would give us herd immunity. We interrupted the epidemic before that happened, with the lockdown. Which is good! Except that it leaves most of us as vulnerable as we were on March 1.


    The techniques were working well in Japan, too, but the PM and ruling party have taken leave of their senses. They apparently want Tokyo to look like New York in a few weeks. Today's new cases are up to 743 but they will not make a decision until Monday, and so far they have suggested "voluntary restraint" and telling restaurants to close at 8 p.m., as if that will stop an epidemic. This is the most idiotic mistake the Japanese government has made since it decided to attack Pearl Harbor.



    The paper already start with wrong assumption what is a bad sign..

    Paper:

    The most typ- ical regimen is 5 days of hydroxychloroquine at daily doses of 400–600 mg, which delivers a cumulative dose comparable to what might be given over 48 hours for chloroquine-sensitive malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum.


    The prescription is clear: Day one based on weight e.g. 4..600 mg following day half !!! 200mg at most.


    Paper:

    Conclusion

    The use of either chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine and azithro- mycin for treatment or prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection is cur- rently supported primarily by in vitro data and weak studies involv- ing humans. Physicians and patients should be aware of several uncommon but potentially life-threatening adverse effects should these drugs be used before better-designed studies determine their benefit, if any, in treating or preventing COVID-19. Harms of treat- ment can be mitigated by careful patient selection and monitoring.


    Answer: The mention of chloroquine is a true sign these folks primarily want to divert the public opinion. Both drugs (hydroxychloroquine and azithro- mycin) have been field-tested by more than 2'000'000'000 people 1/4 of earths population. Compared to most medicaments you take without questions e.g. statins, that fill a 2 meter paper with side effects, both medicaments are extremely harmless.


    But all problems boil down to the high risk group which anyway has tons of problems with side effects as most members in this groups lives on drugs since years or decades, what makes them looking like pre-mortal beings anyway. If possible I would recommend to use the Japanese/Chinese protocol with avigan for this high risk group, but with unknown side effects. Thus juristically nobody can make you responsible...


    I'm happy that I'm not in a situation to make decisions. But at an early state I would no doubt take the hydroxychloroquine and azithro- mycin zinc mixture as I'm free of medication.


    But before that happens I would take (day one!) Sutherlandia the only herb that is able to fight RNA virus e.g. AIDS. But please reserve this for the complicated cases.

    Jed,

    You cannot possibly be that biased, and actually believe that.

    I said ask the same group of doctors,

    You immediately chose to search the internet and cherry pick a contradicting opinion and use it for your argument.


    My theologian brother does the exact same thing.

    He finds a bit of data that supports his opinion and presents it as a broadbrushed

    Proof that he’s right, which isn’t and neither are you, because you didn’t ask, did you?

    Again read what I wrote, exactly, quoted,

    Then Respond, again

    mercy.

    Quote from JedRothwell

    As far as I know, there is no plan to deploy thousands of fieldworkers, or to track every case, or even to test for active cases or antibodies on a scale large enough to reveal the extent of the epidemic, and warn us of developing hotspots.


    However, I should add that Fauci and other experts are saying these things must be done before the country can reopen.


    (None of these are my ideas. I am just reporting what experts in the U.S. and Japan say.)

    Quote from Roseland67

    You cannot possibly be that biased, and actually believe that.


    You misunderstand.



    Quote from Roseland67

    I said ask the same group of doctors,

    You immediately chose to search the internet and cherry pick a contradicting opinion and use it for your argument.


    I am agreeing with you! You wrote:


    "If you asked the same group of doctors about lifting the stay at home rules on

    December 31st, their response would be the same. 'It MAY cause a rebound in February'."


    Yes, any group of doctors or epidemiologists would say that, because it is true. It is common knowledge. Or, I should say, every expert thought it was true until January of this year. Up until the 21st century a rebound was inevitable. Like the 1919 rebound from the 1918 Spanish flu. The only way you could avoid it was to have ~60% of the population get sick and then recover, with acquired immunity. The only choice was how soon that much immunity would be acquired: quickly, in a catastrophe, or slowly in a more manageable flat curve. As Osterholm said, trying to contain an epidemic without a vaccine is like trying to stop the wind.


    However, in January 2020, the Chinese demonstrated that with modern internet based big data technology, you can control an epidemic. You can stop it before it runs its natural course, infecting 60%. This was a revelation to the experts. I am no expert, but it astounded me. It is excellent news. Based on what he said in the interview, Osterholm did not yet know the full details yet. They only came out about the time of that interview. He expressed doubt that the Chinese techniques would work after they reopened Wuhan. It is still early, and there might a rebound there, but so far things are holding up. If they start to have a rebound, their big data approach now in place should warn them, and they can close down the hotspot immediately.


    This is also excellent financial news. The Koreans used the internet big data, test and monitor technique, and they managed to avoid shutting down the country. The Japanese almost pulled that off, but I think now they will have to close down Tokyo and other major cities. The U.S. ignored the technique, did nothing, and now it will cost us thousands or millions of times more than the internet big data method would have cost. It is terrible shame. But still, we must close down and stay closed down. The alternative is to have hundreds of thousands or millions of people die. No sane modern nation can allow that. It is unthinkable. However many trillions of dollars it cost -- even $20 trillion (the gross domestic product) -- we must avoid that. It did not need to cost even $1 trillion. If the government had an ounce of sense it would not have.

    Quote from RobertBryant

    The Chinese propaganda machine will attempt delay news of any rebound...


    Maybe, but not for long. The propaganda machine ran out of steam a few weeks into the epidemic. If there is a rebound, and the Chinese government once again starts to lie in a big way, that news will be everywhere in China, and it will reach the rest of the world. This not Mao's China any more. It is a fascist, communist dictatorship, but there are degrees of badness in such things. The Soviet Union under Khrushchev was a far better place to live than under Stalin! Worlds better.


    There have been minor cover-ups in the EU and the U.S., and right here in Georgia. In both France and Georgia, deaths in nursing homes were not included in the totals. That's the petty bureaucratic mind at work. International agencies told France and Georgia to get real, and the numbers were added to the totals in one day. Georgia jumped up something like 200 in one day.


    In China, for a while they were not including people who tested positive but showed no symptoms. Which is ridiculous. The W.H.O. told them "get real; give us a break!" and those numbers were added to the official totals.

    I know I worry too much, but I am worried about India. Does anyone have projections for India.

    So far the cases (6/M) and deaths (only 0.2/M) are relatively low ( I hope it stays that way) but it looks like they may be just starting exponential growth.

    It sounds like their hospital system is not "robust". https://finance.yahoo.com/news…ives-virus-005002038.html

    “Government hospitals will run out of beds in rural India even if only 0.03% of the rural population is hit by the virus,”..."Almost 60% of government hospitals had 100 or fewer PPEs, some of them had none. Some hospitals didn’t even have aprons in stock."


    any one here have a bright side to help me out of my worry?

    A bright side would be that once you test positive for covid and die from whatever cause (heart attack, stroke) many times they count it as a corona fatality so the numbers should have wiggle room to actually appear lower.

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