Re HCQ:

It annoys me a bit the way people jump on band wagons - here and elsewhere.

The evidence for HCQ from RCTs is just not there yet. One negative (but arguably not likely to succeed due to conditions). One positive, but small, and with some methodological question marks: the endpoints reported are not those originally stated for the trial, and it seems to have been terminated early (I have not actually checked this, but it has been said of the 31+31 patient RCT that I like. I'm willing to be corrected). But anyway even without question marks, the 31+31 RCT does not in any way settle the clinical utility of HCQ, though it strongly motivates further trials.

The evidence for HCQ from France is profoundly poor. Raoult's papers (all three) are effectively useless because they do not carefully enough characterise the patients used, and Raoult himself has form for poor science.

The evidence for HCQ from the US (there should be a lot of semi-anecdotal) is clearly not obviously good or we would have heard rumours of it by now, everyone is trying HCQ. Zelenko's extremely good sounding results are completely abnegated by the fact that most of his patients come from a town with highly atypical demographics skewed towards youth. Why no other doctors in hospitals with quick anecdotal resounding endorsements if this is very good? The anecdotal evidence is weak negative, because anything as positive as you would hope we would have heard of by now.

However, HCQ might be good, at the margins. And if it even leads to even 10% reduction in mortality it would be a very useful drug, since one of the few that can cheaply and relatively easily be produced in large enough quantities, and with safety profile that is well understood and at least in hospital setting is no problem (I think without those ECGs there might be a problem, especially for patients that have heart problems as side effect of severe COVID).

A good enough RCT to determine if it is good at margins will be reporting within 2 or 3 weeks.

None of this is political. So why on earth do we get all this political rubbish? And panic buying that deprives lupus sufferers of their necessary medicine? personally, I blame Macron and Trump. Politicians should stay out of this stuff.

THH

Quote from Wyttenbach

That is incorrect. With 21st century medical technology, a large fraction of the dead will be elderly people.

@Jed: You just repeat what I said in the post but first say it's incorrect... May be your mind is somewhat troubled...

You need to keep reading what I wrote. You missed the point. If the number of sick people goes too high, most patients will no longer have 21st century medical technology. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and they will have no medical technology at all.

just for a good reference, here is a list of antiviral and vaccine trials compiled in a Reuters article yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/articl…coronavirus-idUSKCN21V1YR

State Department leaked cables renew theories on origin of coronavirus

U.S. Embassy officials warned in January 2018 about inadequate safety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab and passed on information about scientists conducting risky research on coronavirus from bats, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory," the Jan.19, 2018 cable, written by two officials from the embassy's environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists, said.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/…s-origin-chinese-lab-bats

Singapore MOH updated April 14.. on HCQ + other treatments.. for Covid..

Some change since last update.. not much though. https://www.moh.gov.sg/

1.Singapore is giving limited approval for HCQ trial ... with caution.. but not CQ.

"

Locally, in the Interim Treatment Guidelines for COVID-19 Version 1.0, the National Centre for Infectious
Diseases (NCID) has suggested hydroxychloroquine may be considered in patients who are unable to
participate in a remdesivir trial or use lopinavir/ritonavir or interferon due to contraindications.

2. On remdesevir.... Although Singapore has remdesevir trial there is no recommendation for.use

But fierce biotech doesn't say the no-control tests are encouraging..

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/…icacy-remdesivir-covid-19

3.On WHO Solidarity..Slowlidarity?

(SOLIDARITY)13 on the four most promising therapies identified to date to treat COVID-19, including chloroquine.

The primary completion date is March 2021 with findings reported by December 2021.

The equation WHO=CHO

makes the WHO support of live markets "fathomable:

of course the WHO may say it is being culturally sensitive.

Australia's PM says it's 'unfathomable' that WHO supports reopening of wet markets

https://abc14news.com/2020/04/…reopening-of-wet-markets/

Quote from Shane D.

We can take the "COVID may have originated in a Wuhan bio lab" off the conspiracy list, and put it back down as a possibility.

That it might have escaped from a "study" bio lab is not quite the same as "was weaponized" in a bio lab.

One of today's Chemrxiv preprints calls into question the theory that Covid-19 attacks red blood cells ---

"Flawed methods in “COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism”"

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/…Heme_Metabolism_/12120912

Another new interesting Chemrxiv preprint --

"Evaluation of Traditional Ayurvedic Preparation for Prevention and Management of the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Using Molecular Docking Approach"

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/…Docking_Approach/12110214

-- presents (Table 1) a detailed list of natural molecules and their binding energies to Covid-19 main protease, SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, Human ACE2, Human Furin. Possibly useful for preparing an anti-Covid-19 polyphenol cocktail.

How Greece is winning.

https://www.theguardian.com/wo…-despite-a-decade-of-debt

Quote from Shane D.

did not know until today we have wet markets in the US.

We have them in Sydney... live prawns .. for the barbie ( the animal cruelty people are upset about it).. but no bats pangolins snakes dogs.. mammals..

I am sure the WHO will not allow bats in Wuhan.. just as they are banned for sale in Gotham.New Jersey..

Shane D. - just as well there are a few doctors left like our scoundrel Vladimir Zelenko who is more concerned about saving lives than worrying about being embarrassed - I think he just has a common sense basic approach using the best evidence (biochemical and clinical) to treat patients who would probably have otherwise ended up intubated on ventilators in ICU with a 50% chance of survivlal. The other major scoundrel Didier Raoult if proved totally wrong would be risking his job and reputation if he were faking his data - not a gamble such a flamboyant extrovert sociopath would risk, surely? I trust the biochemical data

anyway over the clinical data any day.

Quote from Shane D.

Wuhan bio lab" off the conspiracy list

Personally (just my gut feeling) it was not done purposely as a weapon. It was just sloppiness. My degree is in molecular biophysics, but I left that when I saw what the labs were really like. I did not want to be a part of that- big pharm directed and suppressed work, sloppy lab safety, unskilled untrained people doing things that make for bad dreams...…. not conspiracy, just plain old incompetence- it is everywhere.

sam12 The other interpretation of Greece's success in beating the pandemic is that during the decade of debt/despair there was a widespread outbreak of malaria especially in poorer rural regions. Which led to widespread prescribing of anti malarial drugs like chloroquine which are still taken today, as they are taken in Sub-Saharan Africa for any old fever (like for example fevers caused by flu virus, West Nile Virus (also spread by mosquitos) or SARS Cov-2. I don"t think they were any more careful in trying to limit the pandemic than any other EU state - and they've just ordered another five tons of chloroquine! must have some confidence in this drug!

Coronavirus: Five Tons of Chloroquine Sent to Greece from ...

greece.greekreporter.com › Greek news
26 Mar 2020 - Five tons of the malaria-fighting medication called chloroquine was sent recently from India to Greece, after the Greek government managed to ...

Quote from oldguy

Personally (just my gut feeling) it was not done purposely as a weapon. It was just sloppiness. My degree is in molecular biophysics, but I left that when I saw what the labs were really like. I did not want to be a part of that- big pharm directed and suppressed work, sloppy lab safety, unskilled untrained people doing things that make for bad dreams...…. not conspiracy, just plain old incompetence- it is everywhere.

Perhaps the scientists in China near Wuhan who went into the caves to retrieve the bats that likely contained COVID-19 could have been doing it with good intentions. They wanted to study them for beneficial reasons. But their sloppiness caused it to pass to humans in the lab. There are also stories that labs in China who study bats go on to sell them to wet markets for consumption once they are done experimenting with them. I don’t know if that’s true.

Bats contain many coronaviruses that don’t pass to humans (see article below), and they also have ones that infect people but don’t cause illness. Some scientists believe that Covid-19 passed from a bat to a human years ago, but it was only noticed recently because it mutated to a strain that caused people to get sick.

https://www.livescience.com/6-…naviruses-found-bats.html

Maybe these people messing around with bat poo in religious festivals and the like become immune to SARS Cov-2 by previous exposure to its much milder cousins in Myanmar? Only 64 cases and 4 deaths so far. Like cowpox immunized for smallpox? And I thought it was the malaria! Each bat coronavirus should be isolated and tested for vaccine potential, start a new Bat Biotech Corp. BBC

Quote from Alan Fletcher

That it might have escaped from a "study" bio lab is not quite the same as "was weaponized" in a bio lab.

If they weren’t going to “weaponize” it,

Why did they build it to study it?

Make no mistake, “IF”, this was purpose engineered and built, it was most probably

done so to cause political and economic chaos in the west.