Covid-19 News

Thanks Rends . It's striking. Just recently a right wing newscaster who is very famous in the US and an equally well known White House adviser were minimizing the magnitude and risks of the pandemic, even as deaths and cases soared in hot spots throughout the USA. What a CNN host, Don Lemon pointed out was that neither even knew what the virus name stood for or where the name originated. Both of these illustrious people who are close advisers to President Trump though that this was Coronavirus #19 as if the virus types were numbered starting with 1. And the others, they said, were mostly cold viruses so this was just a slightly worse common cold virus. Enormously ignorant nonentities are advising the President of the United States. And they are hugely arrogant and sarcastic as they display their ignorance and lie.

Quote from JedRothwell

People are not idiots. They will not risk that kind of illness.

Too many Americans unfortunately are ignorant idiots and will indeed take the risk, mostly because they are uneducated, either do not read or do not believe reliable sources, and rely for information on bullshit extreme right wing fictional crappola. Did you see the demonstrations in Michigan today designed deliberately to block traffic? Demonstrators were hanging out of car windows were yelling and waving from open car windows inches from other cars. One infuriated hospital worker, blocked for hours from getting to work made a video. I will see if I can find it. It aired on Don Lemon's show on CNN tonight.

Lansing, Michigan today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p17VpYVKCtQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdkauH6NBzE

Talk about idiots and morons. This is the current number of cases (blue) and deaths (orange) in Michigan (click image to enlarge)

One hospital emergency room worker caught in the mess was furious. He did a video from inside his car venting his rage at the stupidity of the demonstrators and noting he could be kept from his work for hours during which people would die in his absence. I couldn't find it but if I run into it again, I will post it.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Thanks Rends . It's striking. Just recently a right wing newscaster who is very famous in the US and an equally well known White House adviser were minimizing the magnitude and risks of the pandemic, even as deaths and cases soared in hot spots throughout the USA. What a CNN host, Don Lemon pointed out was that neither even knew what the virus name stood for or where the name originated. Both of these illustrious people who are close advisers to President Trump though that this was Coronavirus #19 as if the virus types were numbered starting with 1. And the others, they said, were mostly cold viruses so this was just a slightly worse common cold virus. Enormously ignorant nonentities are advising the President of the United States. And they are hugely arrogant and sarcastic as they display their ignorance and lie.

The COVID no 19 trope is a comedy sketch joke in the UK (audience expected to know COVID-2019). I guess it says something about UK vs US sense of humour + knowledge of these advisors that they actually believe it!

Also worth pointing out, although there are some coronavirus strains long circulating as common cold, most of common cold strains are rhinovirus. And, of course, different CVs have very different characteristics: look at SARS and MERS as the other two recent jumped from animals cases of CVs.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

It's striking. Just recently a right wing newscaster who is very famous in the US and an equally well known White House adviser were minimizing the magnitude and risks of the pandemic, even as deaths and cases soared in hot spots throughout the USA. What a CNN host, Don Lemon pointed out was that neither even knew what the virus name stood for or where the name originated. Both of these illustrious people who are close advisers to President Trump though that this was Coronavirus #19 as if the virus types were numbered starting with 1. And the others, they said, were mostly cold viruses so this was just a slightly worse common cold virus. Enormously ignorant nonentities are advising the President of the United States. And they are hugely arrogant and sarcastic as they display their ignorance and lie.

I just called Orson Wells: He told: "In fact I never did shut down the animal farm".

The bats leak source :Originsof2019-NCoV-XiaoB-Res.pdf : of course the paper has been deleted from RG and also the account of the author...

The google query to find material -- The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus "Botao Xiao" --

Well Noam Choms!ky thinks the Corona virus pandemic might put an end to our electing 'sociopathic buffoon leaders.' Might boot out the Chinese and N Korean Emperors too. There's always a silver lining......

Vaccine

..."Fortunately, the most accessible and largest antigenic surface in the S protein consists of the ACE2 binding domain, where the virus can’t exploit glycan shielding or mutational changes to evade host immune response without potentially attenuating viral fitness. The requirement that the virus maintain the integrity of the ACE2 RBD suggests that a vaccine that includes this epitope may be effective, as long as the virus continues to target the same host receptor."

CV taking hold in Russia.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/…sia-spike-cases-1.5533647

Switzerland South actual death rate (mortality) for working class age below 65:

In number cases hospitalized : 0.16% of total 4794 cases.

With minimal figure of 1/3 has symptoms; 0.055% (1/3 has been measured in Germany and Austria in strongly affected towns)

With maximum figure of 1/5 has symptoms; 0.033%

No deaths in the age class below 18 years. This includes all risk groups !!

From a mortality ( worst 0.055%) point of view there is no need to stop industry, business etc..

But out of the 4800 cases there are between 50-60 intense care patients only due to the shut down. Otherwise may be 3..8 times more would need intense care depending on how many do have preconditions.

Thus the real problem - after locking in the old people - are the younger with preconditions. Especially in the US this cannot be tackled with simple measures. In Europe many countries should be able to restart soon like Austria or Italy.

The only way to get out of the mess is to let the younger going through the tunnel!! There after the older can move again.

Quote from Shane D.

https://www.realclearpolitics.…ce_skepticism_142954.html

Excellent research article about how the media has shaped public opinion about the COVID story. Started with a no worry message, then increasing concern, and finally panic/anxiety. Even includes a neat little graphic. Basically, public opinion followed along with each trending news narrative. When the shut downs began, they started playing a major role by enforcing compliance.

Makes you appreciate, or fearful of, just how powerful the media has become. That goes for all the news industry.

Shane,

The media shapes public opinion in the US also. The battle lines are clearly drawn, you either believe what you are told to believe from Group Think Blue or Group Think Red,

There is very little research by either group and less common ground.

Mats Lewan evaluates the graphs.

https://matslew.wordpress.com/…n-the-spread-of-covid-19/

Quote from Shane D.

Absent a vaccine, or silver bullet anti-viral, this looks to me the only reasonable way out. Staying sheltered in place until the virus mostly disappears, will wreck the economy, killing many millions more through poverty, mental health issues, drug overdose, suicide, crime, etc. while only delaying our inevitable battle with the virus. T

This is a false dilemma. You are saying we must do one or the other, and there are no other options. That is incorrect. We can do what they did in China, Korea and Japan: testing, monitoring, and quarantining. This will be far cheaper and more effective than the two methods you list. There is no doubt it can be done, because it has been done. Staying sheltered in place without testing and monitoring will never work, because as soon as we end it, the epidemic will come roaring back.

Quote from Shane D.

-“Several rounds of social distancing will be required to get us to ‘herd immunity’ in the absence of vaccination,”

It will also kill 4 million people (2% of 60% of the U.S. population). This is utterly unacceptable in the 21st century. Also, as I have pointed out, people will not risk their lives and their health to "restart" the economy.

Quote from Alan Smith

A nationwide state of emergency has been declared in Japan due to the country’s worsening coronavirus outbreak.The move allows regional governments to urge people to stay inside, but without punitive measures or legal force.

This was done in part because they are about to have a 1-week national holiday, known as "golden week." People were planning to travel or visit their relatives. The government wants them to stay home. After a national holiday last month, infections rose dramatically. They reached a peak and began falling, but it remains to be seen whether they can re-establish control and begin tracing every case again. As I mentioned yesterday, when there are too many cases, and people can be infected by a stranger on the train, it becomes impossible to trace cases. The patient does not know. Perhaps following cell phone tracks might do it.

Quote from JedRothwell

You could not trace or follow 10,000 cases even with cell phone tracking and intense follow-up by 300,000 field workers.

By the way, I did not pull this number of field workers out of my hat. This is an estimate by T. Frieden, a former C.D.C. director, who called this number "an army," but he said that's how many we need. This was described in the New York Times a few days ago, and again today. It seems that Trump is underestimating the number of people who would be needed, thinking it would be "several hundred." Quote:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…pdates.html#link-78c2cb40

Trump expected to call for more contract tracing as he seeks to reopen the country.

President Trump is expected to announce as soon as Thursday evening that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will hire hundreds of people to perform contact tracing in communities around the country as part of the president’s push to allow the country to go back to work and school, a top government official said. . . .

“The president will announce a plan in the works to drastically increase the capacity for state and local health departments to do core public health work like testing people, doing contact tracing,” said the official who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the announcement. . . .

Hiring medical personnel to perform contact tracing is needed, public health experts said. But many have cautioned that hiring several hundred for the entire country will be nowhere near enough to keep track of the virus as it spreads. Thomas R. Frieden, a former C.D.C. director, said there are estimates that the country will need to hire as many as 300,000 such workers.

Democrats on Capitol Hill have called for a $30 billion investment in testing capacity across the country, including hiring people to perform contact tracing once someone tests positive. And states have already begun hiring their own teams of workers for the job.

In Massachusetts, the governor said his state will hire 1,000 people to trace the contacts of infected patients.

That link is to an article about the Massachusetts project:

An Army of Virus Trackers Takes Shape in Massachusetts

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…etts-contact-tracing.html

See also:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/…-army-of-contact-tracers/

Here are more comments by Frieden, from the Stat article:

. . . But bending the curve doesn’t mean transmission will stop. Only a small percentage of the population anywhere will have been infected and presumably immune in the coming months, Frieden noted.

“We are not going to get herd immunity soon,” he said. “It will come back. Even in the worst hot spots, only 5% to 10% of people will have been infected.”

A usable vaccine is likely a year or longer from the market, and groups are only beginning to test potential treatments. “Until we develop a vaccine or viable treatment strategy, ongoing testing, isolation, monitoring, and contact tracing will be a necessary to contain the epidemic and prevent another spike,” Plescia said.

So Frieden and others are pressing for an “army” of public health workers armed with diagnostic tests to track down every case quickly.

“We are going to have to be able to test every patient with pneumonia in the country within minutes or hours,” Frieden said.

“The concept is once you get down to a manageable number of cases and scale up the public health system, then you will be able to pounce on any case or cluster to proactively identify cases, identify contacts, and follow up on those contacts. And when you get those things done, you can prevent the clusters from becoming outbreaks, prevent outbreaks from becoming epidemics, and prevent the epidemics from driving us into our homes again.”

This approach may have helped Hong Kong and South Korea get a quick handle on their epidemics, said David Holtgrave, dean of the School of Public Health at the University at Albany in New York.

“They didn’t do so much of physical distancing by shutting down whole cities and whole regions. They did more in the way of using testing data and contact tracing data to see who should be quarantining themselves or isolating themselves,” Holtgrave said. . . .