Display MoreWell that is depressing I agree.
- Maybe the demographics pushes it up a bit though.
- And maybe lack of working health care does the same.
- 25% of tested population positive does not mean total infection rate is positive since tests are done over long period of time, so that can be pushed up too!
- Finally there was some rumour of Italian all cause deaths being classified as COVID, which again could push it up.
So I'm still going to hope for < 0.5% in a more average population.
- Iceland does not count because of v low infection rate and complete shielding of those most at risk.
- California serology doe snot count for reasons previously posted
We will get more info from serology as time progresses.
I agree on your points except 4. Only the tested cases were classified as Covid-19. This on the contrary left out of the statistics many deaths for which there were no means nor time to test.
Lack of working healthcare yes, in spite of Lombardy being the best equipped region in Italy. But the spread was so exponentially fast that they had to prioritize who would get cured and sacrificed the elderly and those with little chance of survival. I am afraid the same applied to NYC and it definitely was the case in Wuhan.
Finally yes, serology tests are key. Many kits are proving reliable, fast and very low cost, and massive testing will be the real weapon to understand and control the problem