Covid-19 News

    IFR calculation for Italy


    We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old.


    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.04.18.20070912v1


    they are comparing mortality rates with previous years, which should deal with over-counting


    In order to motivate the use of administrative death counts for our infection
    fatality rate estimation, we begin by analysing patterns in overall mortality
    in 2020 and previous years. In particular, on every day between February
    21st (the beginning of the outbreak) and April 4th the difference between
    the number of 2020 deaths and the 2015-2019 average has been computed for
    total population and for different age groups.

    Note that this is in line with the 0.66% IFR for Wuhan because of Italy's very old population.

    Considering the fact that seemingly intelligent people support the theory that 5G masts were designed to spread coronavirus, I expect we'll see the first bleach-injectors death within a week.



    Quote from JulianBianchi

    You seem to be very sure of you. Please provide a single study that shows that the chain of infection between children and adults, and not the other way around, is important.


    Pffft, evidence-based medicine? So outdated.

    That is a no, for the BCG vaccine helps hypothesis.


    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.04.18.20071142v1


    Similarly to prior studies, we find that COVID-19 attributable case and death incidences across countries share a relationship with the BCG vaccination inclusion in the national immunization program of a country when testing is not taken into consideration. However, this relationship vanishes when we add the dimension of testing. We observe that case and death incidences conditional on testing do not get affected by the BCG vaccination inclusion in the national immunization program of a country. Therefore, we show that there is no statistical evidence to support the assertion that inclusion of BCG vaccination in national immunization program (NIP) has any impact of COVID 19 infections (cases) or mortality.

    Not surprising:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.04.22.20072124v1


    Susceptibility to infection such as SARS-CoV-2 may be influenced by host genotype. TwinsUK volunteers (n=2633) completing the C-19 Covid symptom tracker app allowed classical twin studies of covid-19 symptoms including predicted covid-19, a symptom-based algorithm predicting true infection derived in app users tested for SARS-CoV-2. We found heritability for fever = 41 (95% confidence intervals 12-70)%; anosmia 47 (27-67)%; delirium 49 (24-75)%; and predicted covid-19 gave heritability = 50 (29-70)%.

    Quote from Zeus46

    Considering the fact that seemingly intelligent people support the theory that 5G masts were designed to spread coronavirus, I expect we'll see the first bleach-injectors death within a week.




    Pffft, evidence-based medicine? So outdated.

    Baaaaaaah,


    Pay no attention to that scientific, engineering and mathematical mumbo jumbo, you have political rhetoric on your side.

    (Enter Alfred E. Neuman, what me worry).

    • Official Post
    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Susceptibility to infection such as SARS-CoV-2 may be influenced by host genotype.


    This is not unexpected really- it has already been determined that the distribution of blood groups in severely ill patients is not representative of the population as a whole, group 'O' being under-represented. More surprisingly the Chinese have also reported that only 12.5% of severely ill males were smokers, as compared to the 50%+ of the male population in China who smoke.

    you need to get a new and more trustworthy news source.

    He did not say to inject bleach. After the report that light, humidity and disinfectants speed killing of the virus he for clarification from the presenter to check that.-

    "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that,” the president said.


    His remarks about using an unnamed disinfectant to kill the virus came after acting undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security Bill Bryan gave a presentation on research indicating the virus doesn’t survive as long in warm and humid temperatures and could be killed by disinfectants and alcohol on surfaces.


    dilute hydrogen peroxide?

    I'am a bit frustrated. The figured from folhälsomyndigheter indicates a death rate of 0.15% here But new york data indicate 0.75% The big question now with this differences is if correct, why the lower figures in Sweden,


    Assuming somewhat correct figures, differences could be from (please add your ideas to this)


    1. Different genes

    2. Pollution

    3. Obesity

    4. Age distribution

    5. How well risk groups are protected (elderly live with younger people due to powerty in new york)

    6. powerty, bad medicated people that can't afford to treat cronic illness

    7. medical treatment (My ímpression is that the quality in US is top notch)

    8. Stress, Overwhelmed system (5X sweden in new york and in sweden we are at the limit)

    9. Different mutation of corona


    /Stefan

    Quote from stefan

    I'am a bit frustrated. The figured from folhälsomyndigheter indicates a death rate of 0.15% here But new york data indicate 0.75% The big question now with this differences is if correct, why the lower figures in Sweden,


    It is heavily population dependent. Germany & Swiss North is also much lower. Here in Switzerland the death rate for age < 65 is below 0.05%. 97% of all death are older. For younger & children its below 0.01%, what means only a severe precondition might kill a child.


    It's all about protection of the vulnerable. From the data it is now clear that 99.95% of all death did have preconditions. Even 100 so called younger deaths (section done in Hamburg Germany) with no known preconditions did all show multiple precondition during a section.


    These younger on the surface healthy people are the most emotional cases as nobody can understand what happened.


    USA has a mixed culture. E.g. some parts of New York have third world status regarding access to health. But the more wealthy white live in fully climates filtered air with no smog and dust. May be we once get the full insight into this social tragedy.


    The official death rate for Sweden is 12.25% what is pretty high. But the real case number is at least 5x higher may be even 20x. Unless you don't know this ratio you must lucky to live in a save place.


    Link how the 0.15% was estimated. There are problems with all these estimates and maybe it is just wrong.


    Or, it could be because Sweden is shielding their older population. If they have the capacity to do this really well, then those catching the disease will all be from a much younger population where 0.15% is very typical.


    The official death rate in sweden is high because of low testing. new figures say that one out of 75 infected becomes a statistic, which gives 0.15%

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Link how the 0.15% was estimated. There are problems with all these estimates and maybe it is just wrong.


    Or, it could be because Sweden is shielding their older population. If they have the capacity to do this really well, then those catching the disease will all be from a much younger population where 0.15% is very typical.

    the report this comes form is as you know in swedish which is unfourtunate. But they are open with it and a flaw was corrected by multilple outsiders that checked the calculations. It is unfourtunate that it is in Swedish because I think you would have liked the approach. Any way the calibration comes from a study


    Another swedish pdf

    Quote from stefan

    please add your ideas to this

    smoking


    A French study found that only 4.4% of 350 coronavirus patients hospitalized were regular smokers and 5.3% of 130 homebound patients smokedThis pales in comparison with at least 25% of the French population that smokes A French study found that only 4.4% of 350 coronavirus patients hospitalized were regular smokers and 5.3% of 130 homebound patients smokedThis pales in comparison with at least 25% of the French population that smokes

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Link how the 0.15% was estimated. There are problems with all these estimates and maybe it is just wrong.


    Or, it could be because Sweden is shielding their older population. If they have the capacity to do this really well, then those catching the disease will all be from a much younger population where 0.15% is very typical.

    In Sweden people 60,70,80 lives by they own and typically we do not meet with them unless e.g. outside I think that this group is well protected and that typically the spread, that spread like wild fire) is in the younger part of the population. Among 86-100 that typically live in the nurseries we have a big problem

    as we have not been able to shield the young care givers form the old care takers. I think this is a common problem in the world.

    Quote from stefan

    In Sweden people 60,70,80 lives by they own and typically we do not meet with them unless e.g. outside I think that this group is well protected and that typically the spread, that spread like wild fire) is in the younger part of the population. Among 86-100 that typically live in the nurseries we have a big problem

    as we have not been able to shield the young care givers form the old care takers. I think this is a common problem in the world.

    Well atm under the current recommendations from the state we do not meet too closely

    Quote from oldguy

    smoking


    A French study found that only 4.4% of 350 coronavirus patients hospitalized were regular smokers and 5.3% of 130 homebound patients smokedThis pales in comparison with at least 25% of the French population that smokes A French study found that only 4.4% of 350 coronavirus patients hospitalized were regular smokers and 5.3% of 130 homebound patients smokedThis pales in comparison with at least 25% of the French population that smokes

    Hmm, wondering if older people smoke much less than young ones and perhaps this is a confounding between age and smoking

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