Quote from Navid

Now you are telling me that the people who get polio is from the people who didn't get vaccinated...hmm...you are in a logical blackhole. They state:

Hence, the problem is not with the vaccine itself, but low vaccination coverage. If a population is fully immunized, they will be protected against both vaccine-derived and wild polioviruses.

Yes, polio vaccine coverage is over 90% in India, but having herd immunity does't magically confer immunity on the unvaccinated, it just means the virus will quickly die out, thanks to its R0 having been pushed beneath 1.

And its not me telling you its the unvaccinated people who get polio, its the World Health Organisation!!!

Oh sorry, what was I thinking! I forget they are part of a shady cabal of plutocrats trying to control the population. Or even just cull a sizeable chunk. Along with the CDC and FEMA, right?

And that Nazi, Bill Gates, of course. Warren Buffet too. Probably Soros as well, he has that nefarious look about him (y'know the one). And all those NGOs, and the scientists, and all the other world governments.

And it is noted that you have the cheek to proclaim myself as trapped in a "logical black hole", when your only response was to offer untestable circular argument, AKA, a conspiracy theory. The irony is immense.

Quote from Zeus46

And its not me telling you its the unvaccinated people who get polio, its the World Health Organisation!!!

From this article:

Puliyel says the increase in non-polio AFP was noticed only because of excellent surveillance and meticulous recording of data by government agencies. “The 491,000 additional cases of paralysis would not, otherwise, have been noticed.”

The study suggests that OPV were responsible for inducing paralysis and speculates that "repeated doses of the live virus vaccine delivered to the intestine may colonise the gut and alter the viral microbiome of the intestine".

Looks like a vaccine related injury. What is the suggestion? That there is a big cohort of silent polio transmission and those people are breeding new viruses, which then cause new strains, and then when some baby gets the OPV they get injured from this new strain mixing with the OPV? What is it? Spell it out.

You can quote the WHO, but if it defies logic we must refuse it on the basis of common-sense.

Again, it is up to you to prove not just me, but India is wrong.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Unfortunately, there is currently absolutely no way at all to "protect the old and infirm." Do you know of one?

Yet a lockdown will?

My opinion is that a lockdown is certain to fail as the general public will not adhere to it.

The government leaders will not have the will to enforce it

It is unsure if the constitution as stands, allows total, forced lockdowns.

Data, such as from New York, indicated that 80% of new cases was from people observing the lockdown! And New York has had more cases than any other country!

So if a lock down is not going to work, harping about it gains nothing. You can exhalt it all you want, but it is just like other health harmful habits.

You can say NO to drugs all you want, but if the government keeps opening pot shops, frees drug traffickers and people keep using drugs, saying NO is going to do squat.

Obesity is a major issue in the US. You can promote diets, healthly life styles, etc. etc. But if people won't follow that advice, something else will have to be done.

I have high blood pressure. Not once did my doctor say... let's try getting more cardio-exericise, lose 25 pounds and reduce salt intake. He simply prescribed Amolodipine and Carvedilol. (I took it on myself to start significant cardio exercise and lose weight. I am now off of Amolodipine and hope to be off all meds in a year of so, if I continue to shed a few pounds, eat better and keep exercising. Only with doctors approval of course) When asked why he did not push diet and exercise, he stated " I used to.... but nobody succeeded in weight control and diet. Just go straight to the medicine now".

So my point is that it is a LOT easier to quarantine the elderly and pre-existing condition people than force the entire country to lock down. I actually do not think it possible to force the entire country to lock down. Why cannot one quaratine a much smaller segment of the population and yet you think we can the entire country? Also, if a quaratine is given to high risk people and they break it, then they are taking their own risk.

I believe protection can be offered to the high risk and allow 90% of the rest of the country get back to partial normalcy, using practical safe guards such as hygiene, masks, etc. And you help alleviate to a large degree, the economic collapse that a full lockdown has and will bring.

Quote

Hamster tests show masks reduce coronavirus spread: scientists

https://medicalxpress.com/news…ronavirus-scientists.html

The research by the University of Hong Kong is some of the first to specifically investigate whether masks can stop symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers from infecting others.

Led by Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, one of the world's top coronavirus experts, the team placed hamsters that were artificially infected with the disease next to healthy animals.

Surgical masks were placed between the two cages with air flow travelling from the infected animals to the healthy ones.

The researchers found non-contact transmission of the virus could be reduced by more than 60 percent when the masks were used.

Two thirds of the healthy hamsters were infected within a week if no masks were applied.

The infection rate plunged to just over 15 percent when surgical masks were put on the cage of the infected animals and by about 35 percent when placed on the cage with the healthy hamsters.

Those that did become infected were also found to have less of the virus within their bodies than those infected without a mask.

"It's very clear that the effect of masking the infected, especially when they are asymptomatic—or symptomatic—it's much more important than anything else," Yuen told reporters Sunday.

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(And see my earlier post about universal masking ... )

Quote from Alan Fletcher

(And see my earlier post about universal masking ... )

But masks may mean people with weak symptoms will go out in the wild to a higher degree. It is not a clear case at least

in Sweden where you dont loose monney by sheltering at home.

Quote from Navid

From this article:

Puliyel says the increase in non-polio AFP was noticed only because of excellent surveillance and meticulous recording of data by government agencies. “The 491,000 additional cases of paralysis would not, otherwise, have been noticed.”

The study suggests that OPV were responsible for inducing paralysis and speculates that "repeated doses of the live virus vaccine delivered to the intestine may colonise the gut and alter the viral microbiome of the intestine".

They got their data for that study by correlating the number of paralysis cases with the timing of vaccine drives.

They find a correlation, and speculate that its the kids getting vaccinated who are being paralysed. But because they aren't checking the victims vaccination history and comparing with a control set, they have no real basis to state that.

Quote from Navid

Looks like a vaccine related injury. What is the suggestion? That there is a big cohort of silent polio transmission and those people are breeding new viruses, which then cause new strains, and then when some baby gets the OPV they get injured from this new strain mixing with the OPV? What is it? Spell it out.

Looks like you didn't bother to read that WHO article properly, otherwise you'd have better idea of the infection mechanism:

https://www.who.int/news-room/…-is-vaccine-derived-polio

And why should I prove anything to India? They aren't labouring under the same misunderstandings, surely.

Quote from Zeus46

They got their data for that study by correlating the number of paralysis cases with the timing of vaccine drives.

They find a correlation, and speculate that its the kids getting vaccinated who are being paralysed. But because they aren't checking the victims vaccination history and comparing with a control set, they have no real basis to state that.

Looks like you didn't bother to read that WHO article properly, otherwise you'd have better idea of the infection mechanism:

https://www.who.int/news-room/…-is-vaccine-derived-polio

And why should I prove anything to India? They aren't labouring under the same misunderstandings, surely.

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whoops the fraction of vaccinated are low, let's start a vaccine program ,,, and children get's more sick due to low level of immunity. Correlation needs consideration.

Quote from RobertBryant

Don't take your non DTP vaccinated kids near any under 6 months non vaccinated kids

I appreciate your concern.

My wife is a physician, my father was a Professor of Medicine, I am in touch with physicians from around the US who work at Mayo and other clinics, and I designed much of the medical imaging equipment in the world (meaning I have worked with elite physicians). Sometimes it helps to know who you are talking to. My specific skill is in innovation - I understand that people usually have over-confidence in the data and underestimate novels observation. Most breakthroughs are made from human observation, and here with vaccines these observations are showing that we actually don't know what is going on here.

There are many videos ....by tens of physicians speaking out. You really need to pay attention to the datapoints. Watch 7-8min - is this an antivaxxer, foaming at the mouth like a zombie? Now, I guarantee if you watch 10 of these physicians speak your stance will soften.

Quote from Navid

My wife is a physician, my father was a Professor of Medicine

My father was dockworker..and my grandfather was subsistence farmer

Just don't bring your non DTP vaccinated kids near my grandchildren..in Sydney

they will be OK in Mullumbimby

https://www.smh.com.au/lifesty…alia-20190603-p51txe.html

as I have said the DTP vaccination is irrelevant to the hoped for Covid-19 vaccine..

Vaccine appears to be successful for the RNA virus HepVA but not for HepVC

( which has a high prevalence in Mullimbimby) due to non vaccine injections...

but even this is not very relevant

Quote from RobertBryant

My father was dockworker..and my grandfather was subsistence farmer

Just don't bring your non DTP vaccinated kids near my grandchildren..in Sydney

they will be OK in Mullumbimby

Enough Robert. The vaccine status of my kids hasn't been disclosed. And you have side-tracked a conversation about Covid vaccine (go read the original post)

Bangladesh ..Doxycycline +ivermectin

We have got astounding results,” head of medicine of private Bangladesh Medical College Hospital (BMCH) Professor Dr Md Tarek Alam said adding

out of his 60 COVID-19 patients, all recovered as the combination of the two drugs were applied,

He said a frequently used antiprotozoal medicine called Ivermectin in a single dose with Doxycycline, an antibiotic,

yielded virtually the near miraculous result in curing his patients with COVID-19.

https://www.expresspharma.in/c…o-cure-covid-19-patients/

Gosh I was right about doxycycline! That was a shot in the dark, it's cardio and renal protective unlike azithromycin, so much better to give with ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine too. When I have time I'll write this all up as a table etc with a complete formulation of Anti Bat.

Quote from Navid

There are many videos ....by tens of physicians speaking out. You really need to pay attention to the datapoints.

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Navid, I think you need to pay attention to datapoints other than those that appear on your facebook feed, and do a little more more research on the ones that do pop up.

Case in point: The video you posted above shows Dr James Neuenschwander, who was sanctioned for professional negligence by the state of Michigan, not being a rabid anti-vaxxer, but for giving contraindicated drugs to a cancer patient, whilst encouraging her to ignore the recommendations of her oncologist.

He also tells the families of autistic kids that he can completely cure their autism (which he tells them was caused by vaccines*) using a homeopathic treatment called CEASE, that even the Homeopathic Society and Naturopathic Society call bullshit on.

* Sounds a lot like a rabid anti-vaxxer to me...

Quote from Zeus46

datapoints other than those that appear on your facebook feed, and do a little more more research on the ones that do pop up.

You're ability to process all of this hasn't been strong. Those reading you may be cheerleading thinking you have a point, when I still see you made a logic error - saying that the vaccine caused paralysis in newly vaccinated because of the unvaccinated in a country with high vaccination rates. That argument doesn't fly.

Skipping that, you introduced this idea on the basis of no evidence:

They got their data for that study by correlating the number of paralysis cases with the timing of vaccine drives.

They find a correlation, and speculate that its the kids getting vaccinated who are being paralysed. But because they aren't checking the victims vaccination history and comparing with a control set, they have no real basis to state that.

So you are claiming this is all correlation and we don't know anything. Even the WHO doesn't agree with you.

Here are tidbits from one article:

Indian Professors say danger with OPV

John challenged the current policy saying the government has continued with OPV because “it’s easy and commercially more viable”. “For the sake of convenience, ethical issues have been ignored by several poor countries like India; the existing programme needs to be reviewed,” added John, an emeritus professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore. He has published the analysis jointly with Mumbai-based paediatrician Dhanya Dharmpalan in the Indian Journal of Ethical Issues. John has pointed out that in nearly 40 countries, governments had long stopped OPV due to risk of polio associated with it.

Indian Health Officials

Top officials in the health ministry, however, said the benefits attached with OPV far outweighed the risks. “..we [are] following WHO guidelines on polio eradication programme and do not have the technical expertise to go beyond its recommendation.”

VAPP is real - and it has nothing to do with vaccine strains - it is from the vaccine itself. If you do the research you will find the WHO even admits this. Do you stand by what you originally said?

Quote from Shane D.

The study did make me wonder though, what did the Lancet mean by "susceptible"...to the virus?

I think the distinction they are trying to make here is between susceptible to being infected, and susceptible to having a serious case, or even dying. A group of people with certain charactoristics may be more likely to get sick, but that does not mean they are likely to have a terrible case. I know people who get colds often, but the colds are seldom so bad they feel like staying in bed all day.

I have the impression that young people have infected by the coronavirus as often as elderly people. Maybe even more often. I think I saw that in the Chinese statistics. Perhaps it is because young people took fewer precautions. Whatever the reason, they seem to be infected often, but the case is less often serious. They do not need hospitalization as often.

Quote from THHuxleynew

I think the paradox is that for example Jed - and I mostly agree, reckons that test, track and trace is the only sane way out. BUT, for that to do the job without lockdown we need a starting point which has low enough infection rates for every one (or at least most) to be tracked. We can only get there with lockdown to reduce infection rates.

Some experts have said we need low enough rates. Of course that would make it easier. It would mean there is less work for the people doing the tracing. More important, it would mean a person is less likely to be infected by a stranger on the train, making the case untraceable. But other experts now say that may not be as necessary as originally thought. There are now examples from Korea, China and some other places where high absolute numbers and exponential growth were reduced by tracing. In the U.S., other than New York city, most cities such as Atlanta are showing 500 to 1000 cases a day. That is high. But it is not so high that a team of several hundred people could not track down most cases. They could reduce the R0 considerably, hopefully below 1.

At the peak of the infection in Japan, there were ~500 cases a day, most of them in Tokyo, pop. 9 million. The epidemic was controlled with a "mild" lockdown, but mainly with case tracing. About half the cases were of unknown origin at the peak, meaning they did know who infected who. Now that the numbers are back down to ~50 per day, they can trace just about every case. So, if people begin aggressive tracking in Atlanta, it may not work well at first with daily new cases at ~500, but it will help.

Incidentally, although Japan had only a "mild" lockdown, their national economy has taken a large blow. Not as bad as the U.S., but serious. So, the lockdown is not the only source of economic woe. See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…ecession-coronavirus.html

Japan Falls Into Recession, and Worse Lies Ahead

Here are two interesting descriptions of what it is like to do contact tracing. It sounds like they are doing a good job training these people in California. It seems the technique is working well in Alaska. All good news.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry…_5ebd9dc1c5b66e2790db1035

https://www.ajc.com/news/opini…d/TsEdy6VN4fT55gIVoBZpRJ/