Quote from Deleo

Interesting to see a jump in cases today in the U.S.

It is most unfortunate. The R0 in Georgia is once again above 1, at 1.1. See the bottom of this page:

https://www.ajc.com/news/coron…d/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

The news from Japan is brighter. Daily new cases range from 30 to 40. 15 of the ones yesterday came from one hospital. That's good in a way, because you know the source of infection and you know everyone who may have been exposed.

In other news from Japan, the high schools are still closed and the recent voluntary "soft" shutdown was softer than expected. Regional healthcare hotlines report there has been a 250% increase in calls from young women, mostly under 20, saying "I think I am pregnant, what should I do?!?"

This is a return to the Japan of my youth. Somehow it restores my faith in the young people of Japan, their mores, and their future. Still, they darn well should be more careful with contraceptives. As they say in Britain: be good, and if you can't be good, be careful.

It looks like Brazil and Mexico are not under control.

Politics Around Hydroxychloroquine Hamper Science

https://www.npr.org/sections/h…hloroquine-hamper-science

Trumps gamechanger comment changed the game..

now Hydroxychloroquine has been democratically designated a dangerous drug,,

""Pretty much everybody said, 'Well that's the drug that's dangerous to your heart,' or, '

I talked to my friends and they said don't take it,' or that 'I saw on TV it's dangerous,' " says Giles."

The jury is tainted in the USA..

Perhaps Senegal or Algeria will give HCQ a fairer trial

https://www.npr.org/sections/h…hloroquine-hamper-science

Algeria using chloroquine with some success..

"Dr. Mohmaed Yousfi,

"“For the past week, we have been witnessing a net decrease in cases, with less pressure on the level of emergency services. In this province, I think we are on the right track, ”he said, emphasizing the effectiveness of the treatment protocol based on Chloroquine.

Dr. Mohamed Yousfi welcomed the fact that patients treated with Covid-19 treated within the establishment reacted positively to this protocol, but he is nevertheless cautious in affirming that "we are not yet out from the hostel ”even if the pandemic situation is currently“ under control ”

http://www.elmoudjahid.com/fr/actualites/153624

RB

Determining HCQ effectiveness is not a PR trial. Nor a question that anecdotes can answer. Unless you think the clinicians doing RCTs are deliberately falsifying evidence (a capital crime in science) then RCTs give you evidence. And they are being done in many places (including UK). The other evidence does not have a high signal, is subject to large errors and therefore can be cherry picked (in good faith) either way, and therefore is unclear.

The AAPS view..of the FDA re HCQ/CQ..

By his own admission, Rick Bright, who is not a physician, knowingly and unilaterally countermanded Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, Admiral Giroir in charge of Public Health Service and the President of the United States,

who had directed BARDA to establish a Nationwide Expanded Access Investigational New Drug (“IND”) protocol for chloroquine, which would provide significantly greater outpatient access for the drug than would an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).

Unlike an EUA, a Nationwide Expanded Access IND protocol would make the drug available for the treatment of COVID-19 outside a hospital setting at physicians’ medical discretion based on patients’ needs.

"His disastrous bureaucratic decision may well be remembered as one of the worst preventable medical tragedies in our time.

Never again should one government employee be allowed unrestrained power without oversight,

and allowed to make a sweeping order interfering with the prescribing authority of front-line physicians trying to save lives."

FDA Bureaucrat Brags He Blocked Physician Prescribing of Hydroxychloroquine in Early COVID-19

https://aapsonline.org/fda-bur…oquine-in-early-covid-19/

Quote from RobertBryant

The AAPS view..of the FDA re HCQ/CQ..

By his own admission, Rick Bright, who is not a physician, knowingly and unilaterally countermanded Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, Admiral Giroir in charge of Public Health Service and the President of the United States,

who had directed BARDA to establish a Nationwide Expanded Access Investigational New Drug (“IND”) protocol for chloroquine, which would provide significantly greater outpatient access for the drug than would an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).

Unlike an EUA, a Nationwide Expanded Access IND protocol would make the drug available for the treatment of COVID-19 outside a hospital setting at physicians’ medical discretion based on patients’ needs.

"His disastrous bureaucratic decision may well be remembered as one of the worst preventable medical tragedies in our time.

Never again should one government employee be allowed unrestrained power without oversight,

and allowed to make a sweeping order interfering with the prescribing authority of front-line physicians trying to save lives."

FDA Bureaucrat Brags He Blocked Physician Prescribing of Hydroxychloroquine in Early COVID-19

https://aapsonline.org/fda-bur…oquine-in-early-covid-19/

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Whatever the US politics, perhaps some sanity can come from looking at the reaction on UK doctors:

(1) interested in HCQ, doing tests (and the recent test of it as prophylactic - which based on lab results seems best bet for positive results)

(2) unable to say it is effective based on current data (and that applies to a lot of other drugs, so nothing special there)

(3) would not prescribe outside of well monitored hospital setting for obvious reasons.

I don't see this attitude is contentious, or political. Therefore if you look for who has an unbiassed reaction from the US it would be those who are cautious, would not prescribe to population outside hospital, would be very interested in more data from hospital but not at the moment see evidence of effectiveness.

It is most regrettable this matter has been politicised. Equally regrettable is the idea that medic trying to preserve what would be their own proper attitude (caution - no evidence of effectiveness but worth trying clinical trials in hospital setting) get overruled by high profile politicians publicly contradicting best scientific advice. Ironic that this politicisation then makes running tests more difficult.

No doctor worth his salt could possibly do other than emphasise the real dangers after the POTUS says (with very high news coverage) that there are no dangers and it is worth taking HCQ. If he had just said "!well, I think it is worthwhile but I am checked daily by my physician to make sure it is safe" there would have been a very different reaction.

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.05.18.20102509v1

salt as prophylactic for COVID?

The point is, there are so many different possible interactions that we still just don't know which of these many potential biochemical effects might be of therapeutic benefit.

Many will get complacent, and for whatever reason stop being safe and smart about their surroundings.

I fully expect wave #2 to begin shortly.

Social distancing, masks and gloves remain the order of the day in Roseland67 world.

We only go to the grocery store and for walks outside around the golf course.

Everyone, even our children stay 6’ away.

So far, we have been lucky.

Quote from Roseland67

Many will get complacent, and for whatever reason stop being safe and smart about their surroundings.

I fully expect wave #2 to begin shortly.

Social distancing, masks and gloves remain the order of the day in Roseland67 world.

We only go to the grocery store and for walks outside around the golf course.

Everyone, even our children stay 6’ away.

So far, we have been lucky.

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I live near a "tourist town". I have started to see out of state tags. They should (law) self quarantine for 14 days but they don't. There is a restriction of vacation rentals but they don't. There is a restriction of 25% hotel use but they don't. They should use masks in public but they don't. I expect to see a wave hit here in 2 to 4 weeks.

Quote from Shane D.

It is not the job of media, and politicians to practice medicine, but they decided to do just that.

I really want to know something, in honesty - do you think Anderson Cooper has meetings with Don Lemon, and they whiteboard out the stories they will run against hydroxycholoroquine because they've read the primary research and have read the Results sections comprehensively and don't like the evidence?

If not, who is writing the stories? Is it Nancy Pelosi holding sessions with other democrats and doing an evidence-cased review, and after a solid look at the evidence they mount a campaign against it?

What does the average person think is going on?

Quote from Navid

I really want to know something, in honesty - do you think Anderson Cooper has meetings with Don Lemon, and they whiteboard out the stories they will run against hydroxycholoroquine because they've read the primary research and have read the Results sections comprehensively and don't like the evidence?

If not, who is writing the stories? Is it Nancy Pelosi holding sessions with other democrats and doing an evidence-cased review, and after a solid look at the evidence they mount a campaign against it?

What does the average person think is going on?

Navid, perhaps you could make your point a bit more clearly and explicitly? preferably identifying any embedded COVID conspiracy theories that are necessary for your argument to work. I'm happy for you to do this, and argue for what you believe. It is just that indirect slur and innuendo is not really an argument. I can't work out what you mean from the above.

Control measures working for Flu.

https://www.nature.com/article…39373-1adfc8e604-45096494

Quote from THHuxleynew

It is just that indirect slur and innuendo is not really an argument.

There was no slur. There was no innuendo.

It was a question - a very straightforward question. The argument, if you will, is for others to make- how does the stories and perspectives get decided on - is the question.

Quote from Navid

There was no slur. There was no innuendo.

It was a question - a very straightforward question. The argument, if you will, is for others to make- how does the stories and perspectives get decided on - is the question.

No - only a conspiracy theorist would think stories and perspectives get decided on in some concerted way. And in finding answers would develop one or another conspiracy theory.

I will admit this is a questionable source but...……..

https://www.nukepro.net/2020/0…vaccine-test-vaccine.html

Moderna

There Will Be No Vaccine -- Test Vaccine on 15 Humans Put 20% of Those In The Hospital Within Weeks
And only half derived antibodies.....

Three of the 15 human guinea pigs in the high dose cohort (250 mcg) suffered a “serious adverse event” within 43 days of receiving Moderna’s jab. ….

three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention. “ Moderna allowed only exceptionally healthy volunteers to participate in the study.

https://www.thelancet.com/jour…-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

This pretty well ends the bullsh*t about hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin being effective. 96,000 patients reviewed. Across several levels of severity. vs non-treated controls. Results suggest the drugs may make things worse and have no overall benefit.

Having invested almost $1000 to obtain plenty of HCQ and Azi from the US, Canada and India, I am not happy to see this. Does anyone seriously think this study appearing in the highly prestigious Lancet (for more than a century one of the best medical journals in the world) does anyone think this is political? If so, get a life. Summary conclusions:

"96 032 patients (mean age 53·8 years, 46·3% women) with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 14 888 patients were in the treatment groups (1868 received chloroquine, 3783 received chloroquine with a macrolide, 3016 received hydroxychloroquine, and 6221 received hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide) and 81 144 patients were in the control group. 10 698 (11·1%) patients died in hospital. After controlling for multiple confounding factors (age, sex, race or ethnicity, body-mass index, underlying cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, diabetes, underlying lung disease, smoking, immunosuppressed condition, and baseline disease severity), when compared with mortality in the control group (9·3%), hydroxychloroquine (18·0%; hazard ratio 1·335, 95% CI 1·223–1·457), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (23·8%; 1·447, 1·368–1·531), chloroquine (16·4%; 1·365, 1·218–1·531), and chloroquine with a macrolide (22·2%; 1·368, 1·273–1·469) were each independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Compared with the control group (0·3%), hydroxychloroquine (6·1%; 2·369, 1·935–2·900), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (8·1%; 5·106, 4·106–5·983), chloroquine (4·3%; 3·561, 2·760–4·596), and chloroquine with a macrolide (6·5%; 4·011, 3·344–4·812) were independently associated with an increased risk of de-novo ventricular arrhythmia during hospitalisation."

My note: it is hard to argue against the finding that the drugs, if they helped at all, did not help much. You could claim that maybe the sickest patients got HCQ and AZI so the controls are invalid. That is improbable but you can't rule it out without *prospective* (not like this one retrospective) randomized double blind controlled studies with prematched experimental and control groups. You can bet a lot of such studies are now ongoing and will be reported soon. What is very clear from this is that any benefit of HCQ and AZI, if it exists, if certainly not, as many claimed, "ground breaking." This is very disappointing. I wonder what Dr. Strangelove (also known as Raoult) has to say about it.

Quote from oldguy

I will admit this is a questionable source but...……..

https://www.nukepro.net/2020/0…vaccine-test-vaccine.html

Moderna

There Will Be No Vaccine -- Test Vaccine on 15 Humans Put 20% of Those In The Hospital Within Weeks
And only half derived antibodies.....

Three of the 15 human guinea pigs in the high dose cohort (250 mcg) suffered a “serious adverse event” within 43 days of receiving Moderna’s jab. ….

three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention. “ Moderna allowed only exceptionally healthy volunteers to participate in the study.

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Yeah, I am not sure about this article. Dr. Fauci was interviewed this morning and he said he has seen a much more complete set of data on the Moderna trial than what is publicly out there and he likes what he sees so far. He said it shows that the vaccine is creating neutralizing antibodies at a normal dose.

Moderna definitely jumpled the gun with their press release. They need to put out the full set of data from their trial for peer review. Fauci said that should happen in the next 2 weeks.