Covid-19 News

    Quote from Dr Richard

    Navid I think I saw a couple of your nameless ones today outside a church in Sennen, Cornwall. So you may be right after all. The police have been informed, two weird individuals wearing black hoodies in a fast red expensive car (Tarantino assassination squad style) I was alone saying a prayer for my wife, saw them, jumped back in my car then stuck two fighters up at them Doesn't scare me if they,'re looking for trouble they will get it from me. I am expert in martial arts, trained by the best samurai in Japan.


    I think these guys sound like front-line workers --- I meant the people who setup-and-play how mega-events like this unfold, to advantage. I mean old-old-money. Those who ensure they are always in a positive light, or create controversies about themselves as a form of perceived opposition to themselves. They are game-players extraordinaire.


    BTW, pretty cool you are an expert in martial arts from an actual Japanese Samurai -- something I wish I'd learned when I was younger.

    I found this elsewhere. I think it is interesting. If someone has interest I'd be curious to know your take on the data:



    For 2020 the USA has an "excess death" rate about 5.5% (50,331) higher than the previous 4 year average for weeks 1 to 16. As a comparison I checked the first 16 weeks of 2018 compared to the previous 4 year average and it was 7.2% (63,260).

    The script and all related files are here if you want to kick the tires:

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fh9…OtOMqiY_R9qqG6YccCRa?dl=0

    As of 2020-05-22 the CDC data has North Carolina missing week 16 for 2020. The rest of the states are complete.

    Shaky Islands first Covid report for 3 days delayed by 3hours

    due to Earthquake that came hours before the scheduled meeting

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/o…gton-20200525-p54w0m.html



    NZ is one of shakier members of the Early Movers.. Denmark, Norway, Israel.Czechia Singapore Oz..


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    Re ivermectin:


    That ivermectin + HCQ + AZT + Zn anecdote is useless, hence I liked SOT's post.


    If you count it as positive (small evidence level only) it says nothing as to which of the drugs is doing this.


    The issue with ivermectin is that the level of the drug that kills COVID (IC50 = 2uM) is some 35X higher than that it which it is normally used killing parasite. It is very safe, and has safety studies in humans at 10X this level. But we are still 4X away from the IC50 in vitro level.


    That does not mean it cannot work. Maybe it is concentrated in some way where needed. Maybe it has some other synergistic effect, apart from its direct antiviral activity.


    But we already have some mild positive evidence. We do not need more useless anecdotes, we need definite evidence from trials, or else more insightful analysis into the mechanism. I hope for one or the other, but no anecdotes please!


    From the Monash paper:


    Ivermectin has an established safety profile for human use (Gonzalez Canga et al., 2008; Jans et al., 2019; Buonfrate et al., 2019), and is FDA-approved for a number of parasitic infections (Gonzalez Canga et al., 2008; Buonfrate et al., 2019). Importantly, recent reviews and meta-analysis indicate that high dose ivermectin has comparable safety as the standard low-dose treatment, although there is not enough evidence to make conclusions about the safety profile in pregnancy (Navarro et al., 2020; Nicolas et al., 2020). The critical next step in further evaluation for possible benefit in COVID-19 patients will be to examine a multiple addition dosing regimen that mimics the current approved usage of ivermectin in humans. As noted, ivermectin was the focus of a recent phase III clinical trial in dengue patients in Thailand, in which a single daily dose was found to be safe but did not produce any clinical benefit. However, the investigators noted that an improved dosing regimen might be developed, based on pharmacokinetic data (Yamasmith et al., 2018). Although DENV is clearly very different to SARS-CoV-2, this trial design should inform future work going forward. Altogether the current report, combined with a known-safety profile, demonstrates that ivermectin is worthy of further consideration as a possible SARS-CoV-2 antiviral.


    Most insightful discussion I've read so far (but you need to read all of the comments)


    THH


    The excess death data is highly interesting but it needs a lot of care in analysis because so many other factors affect it.


    In "bad" EU countries - higher COVID death rates - the COVID signal is very strong and 5X higher than the typical winter flu uptick. Interestingly, in lockdown, excess deaths in younger age groups appear to have dropped, presumably because of lockdown. Though most people think that the long term health effects of the lockdown will be negative in the UK (people not going to hospital when they should, undiagnosed cancers, etc). Those don't appear till quite some time later.


    The real issue for the US is what level of population infection (and therefore 0.4% or whatever death) does the country accept, and what curtailment of those inalienable liberties will people put up with to keep infections lower.


    I am not here talking about the economic damage. That is enormous and tragic. The US does not have as good protection for business as many European countries, though maybe it has the capacity to recover and move on. But, as Jed eloquently and interminably argues, the issue is not lockdown versus death. It is lockdown versus changed behaviour + testing versus death. My worry from the US is that with politicisation and such a distrust of science changed behaviour, without lockdown, may be difficult to achieve.


    I guess though for this that the US counts as not one place but many. Local governance and populations are different, as is local demography.

    Quote from Zeus46

    Half of Fox News viewers believe Bill Gates is trying to use the virus outbreak to inject you with a microchip:

    https://www.cnet.com/news/over…es-to-implant-microchips/


    I was interested to see if I could find the first ever instance from where this meme originated. In the end it only took a minute or two. Mainly because I had a sneaking suspicion it came from the same place most of this kind of BS comes from...


    Yep, thats right, Alex Jones... A man so full of inane shit that even Twitter booted him off their platform. The same guy who had to pay out $250,000 to the families of Sandy Hook victims, claims Michele Obama is secretly a man, and says the US government puts chemicals in the water supply to make people gay.


    First mention of the ID2020/chip implant conspiracy theory:

    https://www.infowars.com/repor…crochips/#inline-comments

    From 23th Oct 2019.


    Of course, just like the rest of his articles, it contains zero proof of this assertion, or even the slightest hint of any corroborating evidence. Not that it stops certain types of people from believing him and parroting his weird ideas. From the POTUS down, it would seem.


    "It is surreal to talk about issues here on air, and then word-for-word hear Trump say it two days later."

    Alex 'I will eat your ass' Jones



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    Quote from THHuxleynew

    That ivermectin + HCQ + AZT + Zn anecdote is useless, hence I liked SOT's post.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    The issue with ivermectin is that the level of the drug that kills COVID (IC50 = 2uM) is some 35X higher than that it which it is normally used killing parasite. It is very safe, and has safety studies in humans at 10X this level. But we are still 4X away from the IC50 in vitro level.


    The paper you linked has a very low rating and they already corrected the title - read the end of the story. The best US evidence (New York I remember) is with intravenous Ivermectin. Most doctors do not use high doses as it works excellent because it stays long time in body!! Further the main action is not what you claim - killing/binding the virus like HCQ and others - its man action is inhibition of the virus replication path. For this the standard doses is enough.


    Your conclusion is just based on very limited pharmacological knowledge. For direct virus inhibition Heparin and even HCQ are better, but once the virus is in the cell only Ivermectin is helping.


    In vitro tests sometimes are helpful. But 9 out of 10 substances that show such an effect do not work in a human body. Here we had the inverse situation because doctors (world wide) could see that it works they did ask for an explanation why it works.


    Quote from seven_of_twenty

    It's an anecdote. Story telling. It proves nothing. It could (and probably is) observation and reasoning errors. Ah, some people never learn. Correcting them is wasted time.


    If you are curious then I would just call my fellow in Miami and ask what he did.

    As said above: It's not a single story and the Japanese made a broad report about Ivermectin 3 weeks ago. You can also find plenty of evidence in Africa with "endemic use" of Ivermectin.

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    The paper you linked has a very low rating and they already corrected the title - read the end of the story. The best US evidence (New York I remember) is with intravenous Ivermectin. Most doctors do not use high doses as it works excellent because it stays long time in body!! Further the main action is not what you claim - killing/binding the virus like HCQ and others - its man action is inhibition of the virus replication path. For this the standard doses is enough.


    Yes, I know the blog had a mistake initially - that is why I said you needed to read all the comments.


    As always the problem is safety. It may be safe above previously established limits but can't easily be widely used like that, and it takes a long time to establish safety.


    I take your point that the action is inhibiting replication path but that does not alter things, as far as i can see.


    Anyway, we need good data on this one showing success within known safe limits. Let us hope we get it.


    THH

    THHuxleynew I do have the knowledge and know what will be effective but perhaps we should change the name to Covid cure? I do not like being disrespectfull to any animal species, bat, pangolin or otherwise. Especially since research on bats may lead to a vaccination type cure. Just read the Wang et al paper and Gordon et al Nature paper again with close analysis, you can find the answer there. Tou are such a pessimist.:)

    Quote from Dr Richard

    THHuxleynew I do have the knowledge and know what will be effective but perhaps we should change the name to Covid cure? I do not like being disrespectfull to any animal species, bat, pangolin or otherwise. Especially since research on bats may lead to a vaccination type cure. Just read the Wang et al paper and Gordon et al Nature paper again with close analysis, you can find the answer there. Tou are such a pessimist.:)


    It is at the moment really difficult for me to know.


    HCQ: in some circumstances appears to do harm overall, in some circumstances appears to help overall. Neither of those indications is yet reliable. Nor is it clear to me exactly under what circumstances it is best given, should it be administered with AZT, etc. (I think i'd give Zn as well because AFAIK there is no downside to that, and plausible biochemical upside, but a doctor might have reason to disagree).


    ivermectin. I'm hopeful but the evidence at the moment is very small, and the lab results evidence is interesting but not convincing


    Other things? Mostly, as with TCM, there is no obvious downside. But all those GRAS compounds are biochemically active so downside can't be ruled out, and upside more likely than downside is a matter of opinion.


    Have I missed something with good evidence?

    its remarkably simple with the combo of anti virals they act synergistically. ie ivermectin at low dose 10mg will potentiate the effect of 200 mg hydroxychloroquine, add in doxycycline to act as anti viral and antibiotic too in cases of parallel pneumococci infection 200mg zinc sulphate, 200 mg Avigan all at once at the beginning of the infection will sort it. Or dont you understand plain english? The other herbal supplements. Sutherlandia, Angelica, Echinacea, Nigella, Sceletium can be given safely too. I have contacted an FRS who is up for organising a clinical trial to hopefully eradicate this virus for now. Quercitin, licorice, high Vitamin C, 100 microgam D3, N- acetyl cysteine can be given too. A shotgun approach to blow this virus away. Does anyone want to add anything else I might have forgotten?

    A small dose would certainly do no harm just like taking an aspirin for a headache. Add a bit if gin or absinthe to cheer the spirits, alcohol itself is medicinal, but not in vast quantities as Swartz proposed. Contact will sterilize the throat. If you are a smoker then cutter's choice is the best, low tar etc, and of course plant lectins in marijuana may well be beneficial. Or if you are not a smoker, nicotine patches, sativex, or canabindiol with the THC removed if you dont want to trip out of your heads.:)

    Just to try and approach Dr. R's optimism, my list of GRAS active compounds that might possibly help and would not do any obvious harm would be:


    quercetin

    artemisia annua (sweet wormwood) / artemisinin


    Anything else? (I don't at all rate the evidence for nicotine, and it is highly addictive)

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