A month ago it was all but settled for you, that we have to close down civilization for vaccines.
I never said anything remotely like that. I said we should close down briefly, organize a response with case tracking, and then reopen quickly. That is what they did in Japan, and it worked. They never closed down in Korea. It was not necessary.
You should not distort what other people say, or claim we said the opposite of what we actually said. You are being obnoxious.
Painting with a pretty broad brush there Jed
My wife gets a flu vaccine and I don’t,
Neither of us have had the flu in over 15 years.
I’m not stupid, I’m an engineer, most people think I’m a pretty sharp guy.
You are not sharp, you are lucky. Also, you are married to a person with more sense than you have, who will not infect you. The most common source of infectious disease is from a family member. You are lucky to be living in the modern era, when influenza is less common than it used to be. In the 1970 pandemics, elderly people died from it "like flies" as one nurse told me at the time. You benefit from herd immunity. That is to say, you benefit other people acting socially responsible, even though you yourself are irresponsible.
I believe that 1.4% IFR only applies to New York, which is one of the hardest hit areas in the world. Everywhere else, the IFR is lower
Yes, it says that was computed for New York. The title is:
But not everywhere else has a lower rate. Places with third-world standards of healthcare such as India, South American, south Georgia and small towns in Alabama have a higher rate. New York is one of the hardest hit areas, along with Wuhan, but it also has good healthcare in most neighborhoods, for everyone but illegal immigrants, so the mortality rate is low. Illegal immigrants in New York avoid hospitals, for fear of being deported. NHK interviewed some of them, and that is what they said.
If they (CDC) would have included the ~35% asymptomatic cases they excluded for some reason
I think it is extremely unlikely 35% of cases are asymtomatic. If that were true, there is no way the Japanese case trackers could have reduced daily infections from 600 down to 30 in a few weeks, leaving practically no unknown sources of infection today. If there were an extra 210 invisible cases during the peak, there would have been asymtomatic people inadvertently infecting others. There may be very mild cases, but those people know they are sick. They may not know they have coronavirus, but they know they are not feeling well. In Japan, people nearly always go to the doctor today if they suspect coronavirus, because it costs nothing to visit a doctor, and the government urges people to go and be tested. They have administered 278,642 tests. Only 5% were positive. That is much lower than the U.S. positive test rate, which is around 11%. So they are doing more tests than they need to do. That's okay. It reassures people they are not sick.
It is ironic that Sec. of HHS and others have criticised Japan for not doing enough tests, and claimed that Japan may have undiscovered cases because they have not done enough tests. That's ridiculous. The U.S. has 20,000 new cases a day. They have 20. Obviously, we need a thousand times more tests than they do! The absolute number of tests is meaningless. Even the per capita number is not very meaningful. For that matter, tests themselves do no good if you do not act on the data, and take steps to trace cases and quarantine people. You might as well not test if you are going to sit on the data and do nothing to control the outbreak. In the U.S., and especially in Georgia, the government does nothing. Individual people acting on their own have contained the outbreak. The daily cases have not increased much since the shut-down was ended, but I think that is because people are wearing masks, most gyms are still closed, restaurant traffic is off 80% (which is more than Japan during their "soft" shut-down), and so on. In other words, the state has only partially reopened. The infection rate R0 has not returned to the high levels seen before the shut-down, thank goodness. It was already falling before the shut-down. See the last graph on this page:
https://www.ajc.com/news/coron…d/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/
Since the state has only partially reopened, the economic catastrophe continues, and unemployment rates are still as high as they were during the worst of the great depression. The economic situations in Japan and Korea are bad, but nowhere near as bad as the U.S. This shows the folly of doing nothing to contain the virus. Compared to the cost of treating 20,000 cases and thousands of deaths per day, and the cost of having people too frightened to go to restaurants and go back to work, the cost of case tracking and quarantining would be trivial. A few percent at most. Despite that, federal and Georgia government leaders do nothing, and let the epidemic, the deaths, and the economic disaster rampage on. For no reason! I have never seen such stupid people in my life. (Okay, except for the opponents of cold fusion.) They are no better than the World War I generals who sent thousands of soldiers to their deaths every day, without thinking about it or even trying any alternative methods, even after other generals showed how to drastically reduce casualties.
How did they come up with the 0.4% number and what value is there in it? (I know you said the # of cases was involved - where is that data?)
They have not included that in the table. However, their number is plausible given what we know about demographics of cases.
You don't expect a summary sheet like that one to include all raw data. Do you?
... their number is plausible given what we know about demographics of cases.
You are staking your argument on something you don't even understand. I gave you the benefit of the doubt, my mistake!
AFAIK they summed the data which gets to 0.004. Makes no sense. Scaling by #cases makes no sense either.
THHuxleynew The same way ivermectin potentiates HCQ? Or what is the evidence for Remdesivir being potentiated anyway?
Here is something else that has risks. When you go on the internet and post unscientific lies and bullshit, you might persuade people not to get vaccinations and other essential steps to preserve health. You are spreading ill health and misery with these lies. You and the rest of the anti-vax idiots should stop doing that. You should be very thankful you live in an age when flu vaccines are available. They have saved millions of lives, and prevented billions of miserable illnesses.
BBC Corona Virus the Human Cost
"We thought the government was using it to distract us," says Brian Lee Hitchens, "or it was to do with 5G. So we didn't follow the rules or seek help sooner."
Brian, 46, is talking by phone from his hospital bed in Florida. His wife is critically ill - sedated, on a ventilator in an adjacent ward.
"The battle that they've been having is with her lungs," he says, voice wobbling. "They're inflamed. Her body just is not responding."
After reading online conspiracy theories, they thought the disease was a hoax - or, at the very least, no worse than flu. But then in early May, the couple caught Covid-19.
Please use the prescription i recommended. Please please please to save her life. HCQ, ivermectin, doxycycline, avigan, Zn So4,C, D3 or remdesivir. Only need 10 mg ivermectin.
Only need 10 mg ivermectin
ivermectin
BBC Corona Virus the Human Cost
Thanks. That's a good article. Note that the full title is:
Coronavirus: The human cost of virus misinformation
The above link cut off "misinformation."
Lede:
A BBC team tracking coronavirus misinformation has found links to assaults, arsons and deaths. And experts say the potential for indirect harm caused by rumours, conspiracy theories and bad health information could be much bigger.
This is horrible. I would add: Ignorance has multiplied the cost in illness, death, and destruction by a factor of 1,000. Literally, 1,000! We have 20,000 new cases, while in Japan and Korea they have 20. Ignorance and a misplaced sense of cultural superiority. Hundreds of thousands of people are dying because Trump, Gov. Kemp and Bolsonaro are blithering idiots. This could have been prevented. We should have known it was coming, and we should have stopped it, or controlled it with Korean methods.
Nassim Taleb is incensed that people call this a "black swan" event. He said it is a white swan. A wholly predictable event that could easily have been prevented.
https://www.newyorker.com/news…ore-fragile-global-system
QUOTE:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is “irritated,” he told Bloomberg Television on March 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a “black swan,” the term he coined for an unpredictable, rare, catastrophic event, in his best-selling 2007 book of that title. “The Black Swan” was meant to explain why, in a networked world, we need to change business practices and social norms—not, as he recently told me, to provide “a cliché for any bad thing that surprises us.” Besides, the pandemic was wholly predictable—he, like Bill Gates, Laurie Garrett, and others, had predicted it—a white swan if ever there was one. “We issued our warning that, effectively, you should kill it in the egg,” Taleb told Bloomberg. Governments “did not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend trillions.”
curious Jed, How often did the dockers ask if the volunteering recipient of a flu shot if they are seriously allergic to yolk before they stuck them.. back in the day..
just imagine what they will fail to mention in this day and age.~
Amen to this --
The one vital message of nearing 100,000 US deaths
On this somber Memorial Day weekend, America is approaching the grim milestone of 100,000 Covid-19 deaths in a population of 330 million. Six Asia-Pacific nations -- Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam -- have just over 1,200 coronavirus deaths in a combined population almost the same as the US, 328 million. On May 23, the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracker shows that America recorded 1,208 new deaths, while the six Asia-Pacific countries recorded just 13 deaths: 12 in Japan, 1 in Australia, and 0 in the others.
America has failed to control the epidemic while many other countries, and not just the six in the Asia-Pacific, have succeeded.
The American political system has not been focused on how to end the epidemic. Our political debates from the first days of the epidemic have taken the bait of Donald Trump's nonsensical Twitter feed: chloroquine, Clorox, China pro and con, WHO pro and con, filling church pews by Easter, the liberation of states, the bailout of the post office, the loyalty of Fox News, and whether or not to wear a face mask at the Ford Motor plant. This is not the politics of problem solving; it is the politics of distraction. . . .
. . . Six months into the epidemic and around 100,000 deaths later we still do not have systematic contact tracing across the country. Neither the President nor Congress has focused on the topic even though it is the key to keeping Americans alive and restoring the economy. . . .
. . . Six months into the epidemic and around 100,000 deaths later we still do not have systematic contact tracing across the country. Neither the President nor Congress has focused on the topic even though it is the key to keeping Americans alive and restoring the economy. . . .
Don't feel too bad about it. The UKs inept politicians have screwed the pooch on this one too and will seek to blame the patsy scientists..
Display MoreBBC Corona Virus the Human Cost
"We thought the government was using it to distract us," says Brian Lee Hitchens, "or it was to do with 5G. So we didn't follow the rules or seek help sooner."
Brian, 46, is talking by phone from his hospital bed in Florida. His wife is critically ill - sedated, on a ventilator in an adjacent ward.
"The battle that they've been having is with her lungs," he says, voice wobbling. "They're inflamed. Her body just is not responding."
After reading online conspiracy theories, they thought the disease was a hoax - or, at the very least, no worse than flu. But then in early May, the couple caught Covid-19.
FTR; the couple (Gary and Wanda) in the article who drank pool cleaner...supposedly because Trump touted HCQ, has a little twist the BBC seems to have missed. Gary the engineer died of course, and poor innocent Wanda was hospitalized and suffered terribly "all because of Trump".
But a few weeks later, the police opened a murder investigation on Wanda for poisoning Gary. It also turns out Wanda was a left wing activist, and what better way to cover a murder than blame it on Trump?
So at least on this one big part of their story, the BBC was right...misinformation has been a big problem during the pandemic.
. Hundreds of thousands of people are dying because Trump, Gov. Kemp and Bolsonaro are blithering idiots. This could have been prevented.
That would sound less partisan, if you added New York's Governor Cuomo, and New Jersey's Murphy to the list. Their states account for the bulk of the US deaths, and much of that resulted from their ill advised decision to send infected elderly patients to nursing homes. Many other bad moves on their part, that even the doting media is having a hard time sweeping under the rug.
You are staking your argument on something you don't even understand. I gave you the benefit of the doubt, my mistake!
AFAIK they summed the data which gets to 0.004. Makes no sense. Scaling by #cases makes no sense either.
Navid. please provide complete rational argument, not rhetoric.
The average of those figures is 0.52% which is not 0.4%
True, they do not provide all the raw data, so no-one can be sure they have done what would be correct, which is to weight the age cohort figures by case numbers. However, your hypoythesis above that they are incompetent and have averages those figures is provably wrong. If you persist in not understanding this would it help to consider the other columns in the same table, where you will find that they have not taken a straight average?
So let me correct you. you do not know what they have done, and appear not to understand what would be correct, because you question their figures for no reason.
I do understand what would be correct here, and have no reason not to think their figures are correct.
In any case, these figures do not show 0.1% IFR as you have repeatedly claimed. They show 0.4% SCFR or 0.3% including an estimated (unusually large) 35% asymptomatic cases. Neither figure is exactly IFR, the 0.3% is closest.
