Influenza is an important cause of mortality in temperate countries, but there is substantial controversy as to the total direct and indirect mortality burden imposed by influenza viruses. The authors have extracted multiple-cause death data from public-use data files for the United States from 1979 to 2001. The current research reevaluates attribution of deaths to influenza, by use of an annualized regression approach: comparing measures of excess deaths with measures of influenza virus prevalence by subtype over entire influenza seasons and attributing deaths to influenza by a regression model. This approach is more conservative in its assumptions than is earlier work, which used weekly regression models, or models based on fitting baselines, but it produces results consistent with these other methods, supporting the conclusion that influenza is an important cause of seasonal excess deaths. The regression model attributes an annual average of 41,400 (95% confidence interval: 27,100, 55,700) deaths to influenza over the period 1979–2001. The study also uses regional death data to investigate the effects of cold weather on annualized excess deaths.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/163/2/181/95820

= 116 deaths / day

The US is currently running at about 1000 COVID deaths/day. Flat, as with cases, but with signs of increasing, and no sign at the moment that it will reduce. This is not a winter-only virus, as is Flu.

So that makes a reasonable comparison with Flu, about 10X worse. The only proviso is that we assume that without lockdown there will be good enough track and trace to keep the disease in check, perhaps with local lockdowns as needed. unlike Flu we cannot count on immunity to limit deaths.

Those who believe that massive undetected infection and subsequent immunity will save this should be expecting the new infection level to reduce in those places where reported infections are highest.

THH

Quote from THHuxleynew

unlike Flu we cannot count on immunity to limit deaths.

This is a critical point. There are two kinds of immunity: with a vaccine, and naturally acquired.

The first vaccines were developed in the mid-1930s, but as I recall, they were not common until the 1980s. See:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/

Since there is no vaccine for COVID-19, and since ~40% of the U.S. population gets the flu vaccine, the impact of COVID-19 is potentially much worse.

Before there was a vaccine, I think that people who had influenza one year were often somewhat immune to it next year, even though the virus changed rapidly. Often, but not always. The 1918 Spanish flu caused severe illness in many people. I am not sure, but I believe exposure to previous strains reduces the severity because aboriginal isolated groups of people who have never been exposed to any influenza often have severe cases and high mortality. I also believe this because even when the vaccination fails somewhat, because it does not cover a particular strain, the illness is often mild.

I have a simple question: Where did this virus get its polybasic furin cleavage site?

The Case Is Building That COVID-19 Had a Lab Origin

https://www.independentscience…ovid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

Quote from Mathieu

I have a simple question: Where did this virus get its polybasic furin cleavage site?

The Case Is Building That COVID-19 Had a Lab Origin

https://www.independentscience…ovid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

No, it's not made by humans, unless we are talking about state sponsored multi billion project to kill a good part of the world including your own people. The carrier is mutated as well which excludes human construction as this would only be done in an extreamly advanced cover up of a human construction. see Potholer

Quote from Mathieu

I have a simple question: Where did this virus get its polybasic furin cleavage site?

The Case Is Building That COVID-19 Had a Lab Origin

https://www.independentscience…ovid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

And here is your answer: from RmYN02 - a virus newly isolated from bats

https://www.virology.ws/2020/0…arginine)%20amino%20acids.

Not as much fun as "those careless Chinese lab techs did it" - I know. But much more plausible.

”

Quote from Mathieu

I have a simple question:

No simple answer... even after a long read..

"

it is currently impossible to prove
or disprove the other theories of its origin
described here. However, since we observed
all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including
the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage
site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we
do not believe that any type of laboratorybased scenario is plausible.

https://www.sefertilidad.net/docs/covid19/SARS.pdf

Quote from THHuxleynew

Those who believe that massive undetected infection and subsequent immunity will save this should be expecting the new infection level to reduce in those places where reported infections are highest.

Yes. With the caveat that there doesn't have to be 'massive undetected infection' for there to be 'susequent immunity'. A population with robust T cell immunity and/or prior exposure to a particular corona virus may be enough for immunity.

Quote from RobertBryant

”

No simple answer... even after a long read..

Neither the bat betacoronaviruses nor the
pangolin betacoronaviruses sampled thus
far have polybasic cleavage sites

No longer true? As my last post. A relatively short read.

Quote from THHuxleynew

rry looking at more uptodate links?

Uptodate Conclusion? as abvve

"t is currently impossible to prove

or disprove the other theories of its origin

described here. However, since we observed

all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including

the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage

site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we

do not believe that any type of laboratorybased scenario is plausible.

https://www.sciencealert.com/r…ive-of-sars-cov-2-in-bats

more on RmYN02 - the missing link.

It is a bit weird that the original (discredited) paper claiming lab origin is now being recirculated in the popular press, after revision, but somehow missing the relevant recent work finding bat viruses.

One might almost suspect politics was at play.

THH

I now a lot of people that have had very similar symptoms (medical people) as for corona, but with no antiboddies. There is a suspicion that other corona viruses has enabled some people to get mild symptoms and no antibodies. This is all an unknown in this. Also if nicotine can prevent corona you would have something like 20% of the population not getting the sickness. Also children seam to not develop antibodies and participate much in the spreading in all this means that there is a lot of unkonwns about the fraction of the population that enables herd immunity. 40000 deaths is the estimate in sweden regarding deaths if all get it. we are at 4500 today and we are getting fewer and fewer with a curve and data that indicates that some kind of immunity are at play but with the remarkable fact that the number of infected is only 10%. It's common to take the flue shot in sweden still about 1000 is taken away due to the flue tough years. Also my impression is that in other countries that was hit hard by corona, the lockdown was constant during a long period of time and I am wondering about what evidences we have that the calming of it was only due to the lockdown. I have not looked at this but my feeling is that some kind of effect as of a immunity happend. Not sure but the 5% antibody fraction in Spain looks suspicious.

Quote from Alan Smith

There is a credible suggestion that there are enough similarities between covid-19 and a common cold coronavirus already in circulation for quite a high proportion of the population to be immune or act as asymptomatic carriers. This is the so-called 'dark immunity' - very difficult to prove using standard tests btw - that helps to explain why there are such striking differences in death rates for different counties -where the 'cold corona' has circulated before it, C-19 infection rate and consequently mortality is lower.

Well, it could be. If it could be proven we could just all go catch a cold.

Quote from THHuxleynew

we could just all go catch a cold.

But which cold? adenovirus,, or six or more other varieties.

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and…-guide/common_cold_causes

Maybe drink corona beer?

Quote from stefan

I now a lot of people that have had very similar symptoms (medical people) as for corona, but with no antiboddies. There is a suspicion that other corona viruses has enabled some people to get mild symptoms and no antibodies. This is all an unknown in this. Also if nicotine can prevent corona you would have something like 20% of the population not getting the sickness. Also children seam to not develop antibodies and participate much in the spreading in all this means that there is a lot of unkonwns about the fraction of the population that enables herd immunity. 40000 deaths is the estimate in sweden regarding deaths if all get it. we are at 4500 today and we are getting fewer and fewer with a curve and data that indicates that some kind of immunity are at play but with the remarkable fact that the number of infected is only 10%. It's common to take the flue shot in sweden still about 1000 is taken away due to the flue tough years. Also my impression is that in other countries that was hit hard by corona, the lockdown was constant during a long period of time and I am wondering about what evidences we have that the calming of it was only due to the lockdown. I have not looked at this but my feeling is that some kind of effect as of a immunity happend. Not sure but the 5% antibody fraction in Spain looks suspicious.

Where you have a very heterogeneous population (in terms of contact numbers) you can get localised immunity from an overall small number of people, with large parts of the population protected because R was naturally not much higher than 1, a little bit of social distancing then works. My suggestion is that this applies more to some countries than others - and does not apply to the big cities hardest hit. Death rates there depend on effectiveness of shielding - again I expect Sweden to do that well.

Not claiming this is the only factor - just that it is one possible factor and we don't know the answer.

https://www.sciencealert.com/h…-was-made-in-a-lab-rumour

anti-Chinese sentiment makes the "escaped from Chinese lab" hypothesis popular, and it is difficult to disprove. But it does not seem likely.

Whereas the "genetically engineered in a Chinese lab" hypothesis is very highly unlikely - and has got more so as more bat viruses have been investigated.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Where you have a very heterogeneous population (in terms of contact numbers) you can get localised immunity from an overall small number of people, with large parts of the population protected because R was naturally not much higher than 1, a little bit of social distancing then works. My suggestion is that this applies more to some countries than others - and does not apply to the big cities hardest hit. Death rates there depend on effectiveness of shielding - again I expect Sweden to do that well.

Not claiming this is the only factor - just that it is one possible factor and we don't know the answer.

In Sweden people are laxer and laxer about following the rules still it slows down and do not go up and not only this

the meassured iR0 decreases but should increase in stead. Perhaps we have a small fraction of the population that

are very social and all of them have gotten it by now.

Lancet retracts...WHO would have thought?

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

facepalm moment for the editor..

but its not over

"Today, three of the authors of the paper, "Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis", have retracted their study. They were unable to complete an independent audit"

Quote from THHuxleynew

https://www.sciencealert.com/h…-was-made-in-a-lab-rumour

anti-Chinese sentiment makes the "escaped from Chinese lab" hypothesis popular, and it is difficult to disprove. But it does not seem likely.

Whereas the "genetically engineered in a Chinese lab" hypothesis is very highly unlikely - and has got more so as more bat viruses have been investigated.

Also new sicknesses starting in China is common. Most likely it is just the same natural conditions playing it again, this time we just had more bad luck. Perhaps this is a wake-up call to try remove those natural conditions.

What about this study of HCQ