Covid-19 News

Quote from Deleo

Just looking at new cases today, I think we are going to be talking about an R of 1.1 to 1.2 in the U.S. soon

That is the R in Georgia, I regret to say. See the last graph on this screen:

https://www.ajc.com/news/coron…d/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

As you see, cases are at record high, and deaths are approaching the previous high. Hospital occupancy is rising gradually, in the "Current hospital cases" graph. For purely personal reasons, I hope the hospitals are not overwhelmed again in the next few weeks. I am scheduled for elective surgery, which was postponed when the epidemic began.

Georgia is not the worst. The number of cases is increasing faster in Florida, Arizona, Texas, California, Tennessee and North Carolina. Apart from California, these are all southern states. The reason it is increasing in the deep south is obvious to anyone who lives here. The governments in these states are opposed to healthcare measures such as Obamacare and Medicaid expansion. In rural areas, health outcomes such as longevity and infant mortality are at third-world levels. These states have not implemented any steps to reduce the epidemic, such as case tracking. In agriculture and meatpacking counties, there are many illegal immigrants who get no healthcare, and they live in crammed, unhealthy conditions, so they spread the epidemic at the natural rate, around 3%. As you see in the acj website (above), the highest per-capita rates in Georgia are in rural districts. This is unlike New York State, where they are in urban areas.

It is surprising the rates in Georgia are not at the same level as third world countries such as Brazil. They may well be, soon, unless the government takes steps to prevent it. I am not optimistic the state government will do anything before the situation gets out of hand, returning to the R0 level of ~4 that we had in March. The Federal government will not do anything under any circumstances, as we have seen. The president and vice president insist that the pandemic has ended, except for "embers." As far as I know from mass media reports, they have no plans to do anything at all about it.

Quote from JedRothwell

You say it is unlikely

Prove that claim. It is you that keeps saying that. I said I did not.

I only said I had doubts that a long term successful vaccine would soon be available.

Prove that claim or stop making such false attacks. What post? I sure don't find a post from me that says that.

Again you keep on trying to say things that are just not so. It is like a liberal that thinks that if they say a falsehood or accuse someone enough times it becomes truth.

I seriously do not think I said it was unlikely or it can't happen only that I doubt that it would.

Read my post instead of making things up and repeating your made up misquotes.

Find the post or quit attacking and misquoting.

Quote from Deleo

Brazil with 50,000 new cases today is heading into uncharted territory with Covid:

Uncharted for COVID-19. But this is what happened previously with every epidemic in history, such as the 1918 Spanish influenza. This is what must happen when you do not use 21st century methods of tracking, warning and quarantine. The W.H.O. presentations by Alward and others in February warned us this would happen, and showed how the natural curve was reversed in China. Michael Osherholm and some other experts said at the time that these methods cannot work, and trying to stop the epidemic with them is like "trying to stop the wind." It turned out they were wrong. Osherholm still does not admit that, but the experts in Japan and in other countries proved he was wrong.

The leaders in Brazil and in the U.S. Federal government appear to be oblivious to these facts. If we leave it up to them, millions of people will die, just as they have in previous pandemics with these mortality rates (~3% to 4% without intervention; ~2% with the best medical care you can get).

Alward's presentation is here. If only our government had listened, 120,000 people would not have died in vain, and 200,000 more would not be sacrificed now. All in vain! All because of empty, nihilistic stupidity, like the futile frontal attacks in World War I of men against machine guns.

Quote from oldguy

Prove that claim. It is you that keeps saying that. I said I did not.

I only said I had doubts that a long term successful vaccine would soon be available.

Well, you were saying it will not become available at all. But now you say "soon." Define "soon."

The experts at every major healthcare institution, such as the W.H.O., the CDC, and the pharma industry predict it will be in 2021, or maybe a year later. Is that sooner than you predict? If so, why do you believe this? Do you have a reason? Can you point to an authoritative article that backs up your doubts?

no need to continue. It is obvious that you will just try to deflect and set up strawman after strawmanl. I will wait until you show your proof that I said that it was "unlikely" as you claimed. I am so tired of you misquoting me and others.

and your posts are too long

A question for the learned and astute med and bio people here-

Some of the preliminary studies of immunity (small studies) seem to indicate that those who have had COVID19 now lack detectable levels of circulating antibodies to the disease. This is seems especially true where the individual where asymptomatic (some say it seems not to engage the T cells). Some studies show that the levels decrease within months.* Also, some people are apparently getting it a second time.

My question is: If a significant percentage of people do not develop immunity after getting the disease and recover**, what mechanism could a vaccine use that would allow gaining immunity better than the disease itself? Can a vaccine grant more immunity or to greater percentage of individuals than getting the disease itself? It seems to me that it would take a larger “viral load” (weakened or live) and that seems risky.

*Nature Medicine. Antibodies may last only two to three months, especially in people who never showed symptoms while they were infected. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…ronavirus-antibodies.html

**HONG KONG — Humans may never develop immunity against Covid-19, according to new research on antibodies by Chinese and American scientists. https://www.todayonline.com/wo…-new-wuhan-study-suggests

Quote from oldguy

exactly. They are there because you try to twist my saying I have doubts into something else. I get tired of you twisting what I and others say. I never said it can't be done. You still have not said why you think there is 100% chance that it will be done. If there is not 100% chance then there is doubt..... Get a life.

Why do you want to try to twist what I say?

When people are so politically indoctrinated

This is what they do.

Twist, turn and pervert bits and pieces and parts of facts, figures and quotes to fit the political ideology.

Group Think Blue has just a strong a hold of their constituents as Group Think Red.

Quote from oldguy

no need to continue. It is obvious that you will just try to deflect and set up strawman after strawmanl.

In other words, you now deny saying what you said. You have no evidence for any of it.

Quote from JedRothwell

In other words, you now deny saying what you said. You have no evidence for any of it.

again you make up what you want and seem to admit you lied about me saying "Unlikely".

Quote from JedRothwell

You and some other people here have said that a vaccine is unlikely. Do you have a reason?

Of course, coronavirus may mutate in similar way, like other flu viruses like 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 - so it may require vaccination with new vaccine each year. The already reported cases of re-infection seem to support these worries.

Quote from oldguy

Some of the preliminary studies of immunity (small studies) seem to indicate that those who have had COVID19 now lack detectable levels of circulating antibodies to the disease.

As mentioned some posts ago: A large part of the population has a partial protection from old corona cold infects. Such people will not express a new antibody if the old did work fine. They may express some new ones depending on the initial virus load but as said the old will primarily be replicated. This fact makes the dealing with CoV-19 really painful as you have no total coverage with an active virus + antibody/antibody IG test. This means that checking everybody for antibodies is more or less a useless task. May be they should extend the coverage with a classic corona antibody test.

I myself had the strong feeling that I recently got it (or plain corona ..) the second time as I noted again weak symptoms - partial loss of taste. I'm protected by old corona infects nothing severe will happen.

Switzerland is astonishingly stable what only can be explained by the old corona induced herd immunity. But the idea to get it again every third month is not fancy as e.g. one contagious person inside a train may easily spread it two 200 others. Be aware that almost all infections so far did happen indoor.

May be the better solution is to get it once real and then take early medication.

Quote from Zephir_AWT

Of course, coronavirus may mutate in similar way, like other flu viruses like 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 - so it may require vaccination with new vaccine each year.

Perhaps it might, but every expert has said that is unlikely. Do you think they are wrong? Or are you saying that any event, however unlikely, might happen after all? That's not a useful observation.

Quote from Zephir_AWT

The already reported cases of re-infection seem to support these worries.

I read that these cases indicate that some people, especially older people, have an unusually weak antibody response to COVID-19. Not that the virus is mutating. Doctors in Japan reported that patients who suffered a relapse probably had viruses in their system the whole time. It was not a re-infection from outside the body.

Quote from Zephir_AWT

Of course, coronavirus may mutate in similar way, like other flu viruses like 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 - so it may require vaccination with new vaccine each year. The already reported cases of re-infection seem to support these worries.

That is not very likely because its mutation rate has been measured and is around half of Influenza rate. That means, most likely, a new vaccine every 2 years. This is not surprising, it is a very different beast from flu virus (twice the size).

Quote from THHuxleynew

That is not very likely because its mutation rate has been measured and is around half of Influenza rate. That means, most likely, a new vaccine every 2 years. This is not surprising, it is a very different beast from flu virus (twice the size).

Although appealing on the surface, I don't think that you conclusion is supported by the measurement. I doubt that twice as many mutations yields twice as many viable viruses (virii?). It may happen to be the case, but I can easily imagine that mutations on this virus are less likely to be viable than those of a simpler virus. Also, what matters from a vaccination perspective is whether the mutation makes the virus less recognizable by existing antibodies, and that may also be different for this virus vs. influenza.

Quote from ccooper

Although appealing on the surface, I don't think that you conclusion is supported by the measurement. I doubt that twice as many mutations yields twice as many viable viruses (virii?). It may happen to be the case, but I can easily imagine that mutations on this virus are less likely to be viable than those of a simpler virus. Also, what matters from a vaccination perspective is whether the mutation makes the virus less recognizable by existing antibodies, and that may also be different for this virus vs. influenza.

I'm only going by what others say, since not an expert

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html

Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus.

(My comment: it has error correction! Always amazes me that biology can do that)

Quote from THHuxleynew

I'm only going by what others say, since not an expert

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html

Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus.

(My comment: it has error correction! Always amazes me that biology can do that)

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Your own cite says 4 times as fast. But it is careful not to jump to the implication of a new vaccine required every two years. My suggestion is that you should not jump to the conclusion on your own.

Quote from ccooper

Your own cite says 4 times as fast. But it is careful not to jump to the implication of a new vaccine required every two years. My suggestion is that you should not jump to the conclusion on your own.

I did not jump, I said this was more likely, which is different. The 2 X comes from twice as large but 4 X lower mutation rate.

Nothing about COVID is certain, we do not yet know any vaccine candidates actually work, but things are a lot more well understood now than they would have been 10 years ago. We have had SARS, MERS, a of lot genome sequencing and study of related viruses. We have had studies of mutation rate of critical conserved sequence vaccine targets in COVID.

The N. Y. Times reports that case tracking is not going well in New York state.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…/nyc-contact-tracing.html