Covid-19 News

    Quote from oldguy

    US lockdown bought some time at economic costs but it looks like Fauci just talked and did not use it.


    It wasn't his fault. He tried to establish tracking and other steps, but Trump and others prevented it.


    Quote from Shane D.

    I would argue we already have a fairly effective contact trace program established, and it is run by the hospitals. It works through self interest, in that most people (including the young with little risk) have a fear of the virus, and voluntarily present themselves to the program if they suspect they are infected. No need for armies of government officials.


    That is completely wrong. If that were true, we would have only a few hundred cases a day instead of 70,000. We need hundreds of thousands of case trackers. Whether they are government officials, nurses or librarians makes no difference -- we need them. (Librarians are working as case trackers in several states. They have the right skills for the job, such as knowing how to deal with the public and how to ask and answer questions.)


    Other countries, and some states such as New York have implemented case tracking and quarantine. Their infection rates and death are 100 to 1000 times lower than the U.S. average. That it a dramatic difference. It means hundreds of thousands of Americans will die because we have not implemented case tracking. What you describe is no substitute for it. Obviously it is not! Having 1000 times more infections per day proves it is not. What better proof could there be?

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    There is:

    Dexamethasone (definitely works)

    Blood thinners (still in trial but v promising)

    IL-6 inhibitors and various otheer immune system affective drugs (unclear as yet what works).


    Yes, Dexamethasone seems promising, but for patients in bad shape, if I read correctly. I do not want to get in that position.

    I have not seen where it is used as a prophylaxis or for early on-set treatment. I could be incorrect.


    I am considering preemptive such as my friend's elderly aunt,s, although inadvertent, preemptive treatment. Although as Shane mentions, I may not be able to find a doctor to prescribe thanks to the purely political hit job.


    Blood thinners? Possibly, but not precluded with HCQ use, but again for later stage conditions. Not wise to wait!


    IL-6 and various others.... these do not seem to have the wide spread use from other countries with reports of successful outcomes. One has HCQ with no RCT but wide spread medical support in many countries. IL-6 no RCT and very little support or reports of success from other countries. Which seems the better choice?


    Especially since HCQ + Zinc + Ivermectin have almost no side effect once one gets cardiac clearance and most do. This seems to be the best reported preemptive choice out there... unless one is a liberal and Trump has taken it away from them!


    I already take zinc and am drinking lots of Vit. C juices (natural orange, grapefruit and grape juice) I wear masks but cannot avoid the public. If I can take a harmless (once tested) combination that is inexpensive and has worldwide, observational evidence to be prophylactic, then why would I not?


    Not take it simply because Trump took it and advocates it? :/ That is really scientific! Just the opposite. While I do not agree with a lot of Trump's tweets and personality, he is not retarded. I am sure he had lot's of input from many sources on taking HCQ. He has nothing to gain from the cheap generic drug financially. He took it because he is in a high risk group... older, high stress, publicly exposed, etc. No matter how much one disagrees with his policy, it is logical that he did have some vetting on HCQ before he took it. But then, some will not be able to give any credit at all to him. :rolleyes: Oh well!

    Quote from JedRothwell

    It wasn't his fault. He tried to establish tracking and other steps, but Trump and others prevented it.

    Please give your authoritative sources for where Trump prevented tracking and testing.

    I see no proof of that anywhere.

    Those things are set by the medical people within states who take recommendations and direction from people like Dr. Fauci and the CDC and not the president. Example: States and people like NY governor Cuomo banned the use of HCQ - if it was under presidential control it is likely it would be allowed.

    I think you have been drinking the Kool-Aid on the blame game.


    I have seen little other than press talking by Fauci. No call to research in the first months when needed most, no visits to state legislatures to speed implementation of meds and procedure. And planting early misdirection with his masks are not to be worn by the public.


    PS. If Trump prevented tracking and testing then why do we have any at all. Therefore, I think you are wrong about him preventing tracking and testing.

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    Quote from Shane D.

    I would argue we already have a fairly effective contact trace program established, and it is run by the hospitals. It works through self interest, in that most people (including the young with little risk) have a fear of the virus, and voluntarily present themselves to the program if they suspect they are infected. No need for armies of government officials. This is how it works:


    A little update on my end. Instead of a six day wait for test results (which many have reported in Toronto), my son got his result in two days. Fabulous! That was two days ago. He had to look up his results online. They only call you if you are positive. My son and his three friends all tested negative. They had been together in the same smallish room for a few hours - and sharing a gaming controller - with a friend who was tested three days later and who turned out to be positive.

    The thing is : the infected (asymptomatic) friend, as soon as he tested positive, called up all all his friends he had been in contact with recently, to let them know. He was not even directed by the hospital to do so. So although the state government or the hospitals may implement tracing or provide direction, an informed and conscientious citizenry can also do the work.

    Quote from oldguy

    Please give your authoritative sources for where Trump prevented tracking and testing.

    I see no proof of that anywhere.


    I said "tracking and other steps." I did not say "testing." Other steps include warning people who have been exposed, recommending quarantine, and providing safe quarantine for people who live in crowded houses, for example. We do have testing, but nowhere near enough for our caseload. And as you know, Trump says he asked his people to "slow down the testing." His spokeswoman said he was joking, but the next morning he confirmed that he was not joking, and that is what he meant.


    The proof that he prevented tracking is right before your eyes. Trump is in charge. He is the president. We have no tracking at the national level. There are no plans for tracking. If Trump ordered it, we would have it. I believe it was in April the Congress allocated more than a billion dollars for tracking and other steps. According to news reports the administration has not spent any of that money. So, obviously, Trump does not want to. He decides what the administration does or does not do. Fauci and others do not decide.

    Quote from Alan Smith

    My friends in Tokyo tell me that cases are past 200/day for the last 2 days, they fear a second wave has begun there, since for a while they were managing 10 or less cases/day.


    Yup. 206 today, which is down a little, but still way too much. And yet they are going to allow sports stadiums to have live audiences again. That's crazy. I think most of the cases are coming from places like nightclubs and live music joints. It seems crazy to allow them to stay open. These numbers could easily get out of hand.


    The curve seems to have leveled off, but that may be temporary. They need to take strong action, immediately.


    Here is the data:


    https://covid19japan.com/

    Quote from Shane D.

    https://www.biospace.com/artic…nown-and-unknown-viruses/


    "Its a revolution in vaccine technology in that nearly all vaccines to date =antibody based vaccines.

    what is said:

    After injecting the ‘angry’ living AlloStim® cells under the skin, the cells produce high levels of inflammatory molecules (such as IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha) and express CD40L on their surface.


    May be not really what you like to have under certain (CoV-19) conditions... But in case of cancer - all or nothing - no problem. I would wait some years to see good-naturedness of this approach!

    Quote from Bob#2

    I already take zinc and am drinking lots of Vit. C juices (natural orange, grapefruit and grape juice) I wear masks but cannot avoid the public. If I can take a harmless (once tested) combination that is inexpensive and has worldwide, observational evidence to be prophylactic, then why would I not?


    Bob - I'd never want to stop you from doing what you think is right, and placebo effect has some validiy (though how much is debatable). Certainly the immune system response interacts with feelings in a complex way.


    Similiarly, my family take Chinese medicine. There are some anti-viral agents in there of course, and active substances with a variety of effects. Do I think it works? No idea.


    HCQ has become a cause celebre because of its politicisation and because early on it looked a plausible "get us out of this" possible.


    I'm not exactly against it, because it may have some efficacy, but I am against the way people here continue to promote it as obviously a magic bullet on such poor evidence.


    I am quite balanced. I'd worry about Remdesivir because of bad side effects much more than HCQ, but I'd only be given it if at death's door.


    Could HCQ, or something else, provide good prophylaxis? Sure. But there is no evidence. Trump trumpeting it does not affect me either way, he is an essentially worthless source of scientific information, so what he does has no relationship to what is true.

    Quote from Mark U

    A little update on my end. Instead of a six day wait for test results (which many have reported in Toronto), my son got his result in two days. Fabulous! That was two days ago. He had to look up his results online. They only call you if you are positive. My son and his three friends all tested negative. They had been together in the same smallish room for a few hours - and sharing a gaming controller - with a friend who was tested three days later and who turned out to be positive.

    The thing is : the infected (asymptomatic) friend, as soon as he tested positive, called up all all his friends he had been in contact with recently, to let them know. He was not even directed by the hospital to do so. So although the state government or the hospitals may implement tracing or provide direction, an informed and conscientious citizenry can also do the work.


    Yes, the tests are a blunt tool, especially because (in the Uk) the false negative rate is around 30%, so if you test negative it does not mean you don't have it and in fact you are still required to self-isolate.


    However, without the tests, would people take self-isolation so seriously? We now know that 70% - 80% of those who are tested have not ever had symptoms (and many never have symptoms). Without some ground truth, even if a bit unreliable, you can't catch the asymptomatic spread.


    PS - the virus is just as deadly if caught from someone not at all affected by it! The jury is out on how much less infectious such people are.

    Quote from Mark U

    The thing is : the infected (asymptomatic) friend, as soon as he tested positive, called up all all his friends he had been in contact with recently, to let them know. He was not even directed by the hospital to do so. So although the state government or the hospitals may implement tracing or provide direction, an informed and conscientious citizenry can also do the work.


    They can. They should, and they often do. But not often enough. Most Americans are responsible and will do this. Most Italians are as well. Yet the situation in Italy was out of control in March, and our daily cases are even more out of control today.


    If we leave this up to individual people, even though many will be responsible, others will not, and still others will be ignorant or unknowing. We will soon have 100,000 cases a day, and then 200,000, and then 400,000 cases and ~10,000 deaths every day. That is not a possibility. That is certain to happen, because that is what happened in every epidemic in history with this mortality rate. It is a law of nature. If you take no effective steps to prevent it, it must happen. You can see that by comparing infection rate curves for Italy, Japan or New York state compared to Florida or Georgia. It is obvious -- it is indisputable -- that places where the government does not implement tracking, quarantine and other steps will suffer catastrophic deaths and debilities such as strokes, amputations, and lifelong problems breathing. Our economy will be plunged into the worst disaster since 1932. Millions of Americans will die or have their lives ruined. Because Trump and state governors in Georgia and elsewhere refuse to take the necessary steps. (The governor of Georgia is fighting big city mayors to stop them from saving lives.) That is the price you pay for ignoring science.


    I'm more interested in Ivermectin than HCQ because it has been investigated much less, so although it has minimal reliable positive evidence it has no counterweighting negative evidence. Of particular relevance is the dosage given - because in vitro studies show effectiveness at dosages much higher than those typically given to humans - although high dose safety studies have been pretty positive.

    Quote from Mark U

    My son and his three friends all tested negative. They had been together in the same smallish room for a few hours - and sharing a gaming controller - with a friend who was tested three days later and who turned out to be positive.

    Sorry to say: Such tests must be repeated after 3 days. It takes some time to express measurable amounts of the virus as the friend possible did show any infection when they met.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    I'd worry about Remdesivir because of bad side effects much more than HCQ, but I'd only be given it if at death's door.


    That's exactly the place where it won't help. Just take 2x dose Ivermectin if you are at death's door - even better take it some days earlier...

    You still owe us the in-vitro results of the Gilead shit Remdesivir. I guess 0 anti viral activity - as it has other effects like suppressing the inflammation.

    Quote from JedRothwell

    Other steps include warning people who have been exposed, recommending quarantine, and providing safe quarantine for people who live in crowded houses, for example. We do have testing, but nowhere near enough for our caseload

    so you are claiming he "prevented" those steps. So you therefore say has been no warning to those expose (sure sees like people are getting results of test and it sure seems like he warned people daily for a while. Again, things like quarantine is a state item not a national item. I personally know of people that were quarantined and states that mandate 14 day quarantines when entering. I do not see that they were "prevented" as you claim. again show your sources that things like quarantines are "prevented".


    as someone who tries to do scientific editing of others, you should know the meaning of such words that you select to use like "prevented". I think you might really mean "hindered" and not what you claim here.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    We now know that 70% - 80% of those who are tested have not ever had symptoms (and many never have symptoms).


    I wouldn't know about that. I have seen those numbers disputed. Apparently the experts disagree. However, here is something else. Many patients said they suffered only mild symptoms months ago. The infection apparently cleared up. But the symptoms did not. They were mild, then not so mild. These people report recurring fever, coughing up blood, disorientation, inability to think straight or plan, and many other serious problems. I have read many accounts of this. Doctors say there may be thousands, or there may eventually be hundreds of thousands of people with these problems. At present they have no idea how long it will take for the problems to clear up. Maybe never. The effects on cognition may be caused by minor strokes, in which case they may last a lifetime.


    So, having a mild case may only be the beginning of your troubles.


    This is why preventing infection is far, FAR better than curing it. A week or so ago in Texas, the governor or some high official said, "Be calm. People should know we are ready for this. We now have enough masks and PPE." If I had been a reporter I would have asked: "Do you have enough coffins?" And: "Do you have enough long term nursing homes for people in their twenties who suffer strokes and can never walk or talk again?" Having enough ICU beds, masks and PPE is not winning. It is a disastrous defeat.


    As it turned out, they do not have enough masks and PPE in Texas.

    Quote from oldguy

    so you are claiming he "prevented" those steps.


    Do you see any news reports of the Federal government implementing any of these things? As far as I know, it is not happening. Unless you have show me some information to the contrary, I assume it is not happening. Trump decides what happens. Trump prevented it. He decided not to spend the money the Congress allocated for this. Several members of Congress are upset by that, according to the New York Times.


    Quote from oldguy

    So you therefore say has been no warning to those expose (sure sees like people are getting results of test and it sure seems like he warned people daily for a while.


    There may have been warnings, but not from any Federal organization.


    People in New York, New Jersey, Massachusettes, Alaska and other states are warned by case trackers employed by those states. The trackers are not state officials. They are people such as librarians, ministers, retired nurses and doctors, social workers, police detectives and so on. They have been trained by experts from Johns Hopkins. People in Texas, Florida and Georgia have not been warned by anyone in our state governments, because we have no one doing this. (As far as I know, anyway. There are supposedly 250 people doing this in Georgia, but with our caseload, we need 15,000 to 30,000.) There is a stark difference in the outcomes. You can see that thousands more people will get sick and die in states that have no tracking. Here:




    Florida is now higher than New York was at the peak, and Florida continues to increase exponentially. Without tracking, quarantine and other measures, it can only increase at about the same rate. If the government continues to take no action, there are only two ways this can end:


    1. People become so frightened they take steps on their own, destroying what is left of the economy.


    2. ~13 million people in Florida are infected, giving the population herd immunity. If that happens, 300,000 of them will die, and another million or so have their health and their lives destroyed. Actually, more than 300,000 would probably die, given the elderly population in Florida.

    Quote from oldguy

    as someone who tries to do scientific editing of others, you should know the meaning of such words that you select to use like "prevented". I think you might really mean "hindered" and not what you claim here.


    No, I mean that Trump prevented it. As far as I know it is not happening. (Perhaps it is happening but I have not heard. Can you point me to a news article describing a Federal tracking program?)


    There is no doubt Trump is preventing it. He is in charge. If he were to tell his staff "make it happen," it would happen in a week. It is not difficult to set up tracking and quarantine programs. They did it in Japan, New York, Massachusettes and other places in a week or so. Of course they have improved since they started, but the initial effort took only about a week.


    In Alaska they have been case tracking for decades. They didn't have to start. They just added coronavirus to the list of infectious diseases they track and warn people about. That is one of the reasons Alaska has had so few cases. I gather infectious disease spreads easily in Alaska, for the same reason it does in Sapporo. Because people spend all winter inside.

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