Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • The winter break in europe is very strong correlate to the size of the outbreak peak.


    Norway,Denmark,Finland,Germany all with excellent low peaks had their holliday before week 9

    France,Belgium,GB,Sweden,Netherlands all had their winter holliday partly or fully week 9 or 10


    See the trend!


    Finally GB has the same problem as Sweden with a slow downward slope after the peak and if Sweden is 2,5 times as bad as Denmark, GB is about 2,0 times as bad as Denmark whenit comes to the behavior after the peak. So it does not look like it's because of the lock down, more due to the fact that we had a critical mass of people that transmitted the virus so that new clusters continously crop up and delay the recovery. If you look at the media around Sweden, the next time around we will have close down italian style and punish all good people that followed the rule. This is like putting another sticker to a tire ontop of an old one to really make it hold although the tire is leaking elsewhere in a new hole.

  • Let the facts fall where they may, but let those facts be true.


    Everything I listed is a well documented, uncontroversial fact:


    [Poor people] have more pre-existing health problems such as obesity.

    Their jobs often require hands-on physical labor. You cannot do a factory job, or a grocery or warehouse job at home over the internet.

    Many of their jobs, such as meatpacking, are prone to spreading infections. . . .



    And let no man decide that his interpretation of those facts, are no less compassionate than the other.


    Why not? If a person unfairly blames the patients for the disease, surely that is less compassionate.


    You do not blame the patients. Your hypothesis, that the disease is being spread by coming in from Mexico, does not lack compassion. But it seems far-fetched. There is a lot of evidence it is not true, or only marginally true. So you are probably wrong, for the reasons I listed.


    There are some gray areas. It is clear that obese people suffer more from the disease and they die at higher rate. That is a fact. If you say that an obese person is responsible for his weight, then you are saying -- in effect -- they have brought illness and death upon themselves. That is less compassionate than saying: "obese people cannot help being fat" or "the food companies make people fat." It seems less compassionate to me. Less sympathetic. However, I think they are responsible for being overweight, so I guess I am less sympathetic. I would say they are partly responsible, and society, the food companies and the zeitgeist are partly responsible.


    To take another example, is it less compassionate to say: "people who do not wear masks and who go to crowded bars are responsible for getting COVID-19"? I would say yes, they are responsible, and yes, that is less compassionate. I sympathize with them, but I am more sympathetic toward people who do all they can to avoid the disease, wearing masks, not going to bars, social distancing, and yet they still get it.

  • "Det är synd om människan"

  • I had met a couple of persons who tried to convince me of things like CIA faked 9/11 and now also things about FHM is covering up ditt and datt. Crazy ideas where people dig out some weird stuff and put a narrative on them in stead of acknowledge the simple straightforward explanation. Thing is if you dig data around almost any human endeavor you will find things that acknowledge your theory. Here the statistical honesty is important to sieve out what's important and whats fantasy. It's funny how awkward you feel when bombarded with this rubbish as you have two thoughts simultaneously in your mind. Either gosh this one is stupid, or gosh this one tries to fool me. I learnt the hard way to be careful. Last time some smuckhead claimed that FHM cleaned the version control history of their public modelling code and clearly they are hiding something fantastically important. I counted that we never send word files that contains the editing history to customers, pdf's in stead and it is quite natural that you want to avoid public heat from one stupid sexistic joke in the comments that is hidden in the history or what not unimportant thing trolls love to dress you in. And What the macaronas, the new model was fixed and everybody was happy with the quality and it just went 2 days after the bug was found by at least three people in the old published code. Most people are sane though.

  • What in earth is similar in UK and Sweden. This is the million dollar answer that could save lives in autumn. This is the dark matter of epidemiology. It is not lock down. Lock down Italian style where you basically lock people in their flats help certainly. But Belgium with their tough start did splendid in the lock down phase after the initial phase. This rule out effects that has with the scale of the outbreak. Immigrants, perhaps, but how is the mechanism? Belgium has a lot of immigrants too, D-vitamine, no I do not think so. Elderly care, looks similar everywhere. Heavy economized health care? Can that lead to many nurses moving between different care takers spreading the virus around, hitting immigrant hot-spots as many immigrants work in this cares. Or some else activity that is needed to continue in a lock down. Maybe just some genetics that is more manifested in UK and Sweden then Belgium and Denmark. A corona cold that hit Belgium but not Sweden and England. A mystery.

  • I actually have an idea. Belgium was hit really hard and are very densely populated, hardest in Europe. It simply burned out all material in the start phase quite evenly and there where no clusters left to burn. Just simple as that. In stead Sweden and England had regions separated and spared that was ignited by something similar to health care workers that we could not lock in and caused a more slow decay. Also I suspect that with a minor outbreak, the probability for continuing igniting other clusters went down so much that it died out more quickly in Germany,Denmark and Norway. Realizing this was nice as we have implemented better methods to protect nurses in the nurseries. I expect the life expectancy to rise a little due to this after this year.

  • Viral hotspots spread across the United States

    Twenty public-health experts, from clinicians to epidemiologists, historians and sociologists, discuss the situation in the United States, where the coronavirus has left no corner of the country untouched. They say local restrictions need to be tightened, testing must become targeted and masks should not be politicized. People of colour, who will continue to be disproportionately affected by the pandemic, also need to be a target of interventions. “By the time that minority patient sets foot in a hospital, he is already on an unequal footing,” says Elaine Hernandez, a sociologist at Indiana University.

    The New York Times | 17 min read

  • One of my statistical black magic tools that I use from time to time is sign and sign rank tests. Very powerful when you have few data points and really need a feeling if something you see is significant or not. Here is an example. I first analyzed the Nordic countries and saw that travelling before week 9 was safe and after was unsafe. AND it looked like a big outbreak was correlated to this. Now claimig this I was very often answered that this was wishful thinking. Now the Null hypothesis it is not correlated and the finding was just luck or unluck, so adding the rest of northewest of Europe we see that France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, UK all 5 followed the correlation that is in our H1. Is this by chance? we get +,+,+,+,+. The P value for the test is P(sum signs >= 5) = 0.5^5 which is significant indeed so it do look like this finding have bearing and is not with quite high probability a matter of luck. Of cause this is not perfect science as one can question how inidependent those are but pretty stong proof for a non cherrypicking statistical truth.

  • "Four Ukrainian soldiers die after coronavirus vaccine tests"..

    https://news.ru/amp/incidents/…skoj-vakciny-ot-covid-19/

    Hard to know if this is 0 or 100% true...mainstream media not buying it

    but I was wondering how much Moderna paid Ukraine for trials..

    fake propaganda, be careful with russia and neighbours. Thats troll territories and information war is present. fake news russian style It is quite easy to debunk though you would expect people to get ill but very few die, All did die acording to this fake news

  • Google uncensors Todaro HCQ paper after 4 months


    https://t.co/gCgJDxhAjV?amp=1

    "

    An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

    Presented by: James M. Todaro, MD (Columbia MD, [email protected]) and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq. ([email protected])

    In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

    March 13, 2020


    note the fake Twitter warning

    HCQ info could be"potentially spammy or unsafe, "



  • Thanks for posting this. A good reminder that HCQ/CQ was not just pulled out of thin air as a possible remedy for COVID. The Chinese and South Koreans had good reason to try it early on against COVID. Successfully also. From the now uncensored Todaro HCQ paper:

    "According to research by the US CDC, chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS coronavirus, both prophylactically and therapeutically. SARS coronavirus has significant similarities to COVID-19. Specifically, the CDC research was completed in primate cells using chloroquine’s well known function of elevating endosomal pH. The results show that “We have identified chloroquine as an effective antiviral agent for SARS-CoV in cell culture conditions, as evidenced by its inhibitory effect when the drug was added prior to infection or after the initiation and establishment of infection. The fact that chloroquine exerts an antiviral effect during pre- and post-infection conditions suggest that it is likely to have both prophylactic and therapeutic advantages.”


    While reading, I kept asking myself "why would Google censor a perfectly legitimate paper like this?" Scary.

  • While reading, I kept asking myself "why would Google censor a perfectly legitimate paper like this?" Scary.


    Scary is the fact that people can't put a few loose threads together and see this is a coordinated effort by a well connected group more powerful than the media, the scientists, and the pharma companies.


    Otherwise, nothing makes sense.


    Does Anderson Cooper wake up one day understanding how toxic Hydroxycholoroquine is? Or is in it an interconnected network?


    Does Google's CEO Pindar realize that Hydroxchloroquine research is flawed based on their Physician experts? Or is it an interconnected network?


    Does NIH/Fauci ignore Hydroxycholorquine like he never heard of it or is he part of an interconnected network?


    If Google's best medical experts really believe these papers are dangerous to public health why uncensor things while they are in front of congress?  Why not stand by that conviction in a public forum? If they rely on fact-checkers (vs actual data from Fauci's on Virology journal in 2005!) then why not stand behind those fact-checkers when the storm comes?


    But spin doctors pivot from truth, avoid logic, and can only blurt out one thing "conspiracy theorist", "conspiracy theorist". How terribly pathetic as their existence is meant sewing discord!

  • We did post here a reference that the HCQ safety profile is better than that of aspirin.

    More than 6 million Americans take aspirin daily without physician's recommendation

    . Nearly half of Americans more than 70 years of age without cardiovascular disease, an estimate of nearly 10 million people, take aspirin daily -- despite current guidelines against this practice.Jul 22, 2019

    "

    Hydroxychloroquine is a relatively well tolerated medicine. The most common adverse reactions
    reported are stomach pain, nausea, vomiting, and headache. .. Hydroxychloroquine may also cause itching in some people.

    CDC has no limits on the use of hydroxychloroquine for the prevention of malaria.


    https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/re…OP30lNVtTLvWCxZT5dcbB4MuM

    The low toxicity shown by the recent analysis of 3 RCTs https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…07.16.20155531v1.full.pdf

    was hardly a surprise to the CDC... its been known for years


    however it might have been an inconvenient truth for many (Trump=HCQ) fake journos...


  • I think, RB, that is because it is well established that it DOES prevent malaria - which kills.

    Yeah with corona if HCQ + X does not work but all are using them you get the kills because of corona + the kills because of non-functioning treatment so first establish that it work with RCT, then apply the roll out. To allow it for doctors who want to use it at their will, probably I would allow that but it is not an easy choice. I would however make sure to have my books clear about what science says and what proofs is out there and then shift the responsibility to those doctors.