Covid-19 News

Scientists May Be Using the Wrong Cells to Study Covid-19

Quote

The scientists who ran the first, promising laboratory experiments on the drug had used the wrong kind of cells: Instead of testing its effects on human lung cells, they relied on a supply of mass-produced, standardized cells made from a monkey’s kidney. In the end, that poor decision made their findings more or less irrelevant to human health. Worse, it’s possible that further research into novel Covid-19 cures will end up being compromised by the same mistake.

Victoria (red)

Nz /Oz (-VIc) (blue) at the bottom of the Covid Analysis graph.

Low densities and tough quarantines mean that

99% of the populace is not exposed to the virus..

There is no HCQ use in NZ/Oz for Covid

if quarantine fails ,as in Victoria's case, then numbers tend to rise.. now Victoria is in six weeks shutdown.

Without shutdown mortality would rise above 500 d/M...from government models.

it will probably "plateau" at 50-100 with the current lockdown.. in the medium term

https://hcqtrial.com/

Politifact link says "There have been five randomized controlled, placebo controlled trials that do not show any benefit to hydroxychloroquine."

PolitiFact link

So is this the decisive evidence that we need to reach a conclusion?

I am betting that the answer is no!

On the other hand if we take the view that politics has taken HCQ out of the reach of the public in the USA then surely we should be seeing some positive effects from HCQ in India or Brazil.

Or maybe not;

Millions of doses of HCQ sit in storage unused.

But then this second link is from CNN so maybe they are lying. Who knows.

I think UK was so badly hit because UK had their winter break fully week 9, there is only one more country in north west Europe that had the same bad luck and that's Belgium. France and Holland had only partially winter breaks at week 9. Sweden has also only a partial winter break at week 9, but we had the mellody final music event match 7 in Stockholm that essentially spread the infection out to counties that had winter break week 8. So no the bad outcome of UK was probably not due to a delayed lock down but a high C in C exp(kt).

Quote from ZenoOfElea

So is this the decisive evidence that we need to reach a conclusion?

Decisive evidence will be a long time coming..

In the meantime there is a lot of reading

67 studies .. quite a few with positive evidence according to

https://c19study.com/

I've read about twenty..

Here is a report on March 17, 2020 in Science about the S. Korean strategy for dealing with the coronavirus. This tells essentially all you need to know to contain the virus. Of course you need more detail, but this covers the overall strategy. It is exactly in line with the recommendations made by the W.H.O. in February. If the U.S. had followed these recommendations, we would have only a few thousand dead total, and ~200 cases per day and ~10 deaths. That is adjusted for population. (The U.S. population is 6.3 times larger than S. Korea.)

This article describes the S. Korean experience with MERS, which put the fear of God into them.

There were no lock downs or other extreme measures in S. Korea. We would not have needed them either if we has acted promptly and done the steps recommended by the W.H.O.

Trump and others have blamed the W.H.O. for the pandemic. That is a case of shooting the messenger because you don't want to hear the message.

https://www.sciencemag.org/new…-whats-secret-its-success

https://www.worldometers.info/…irus/country/south-korea/

Quote from THHuxleynew

(1) I do not create FUD

Quote from THHuxleynew

Dexamethasone - cheap, safe, reduces mortality by 30%!

Obviously you create FUD and make irrational claims that Ivermectin has only be tested in vivo. As said with your under ground medical understanding you

simply should stop to just posting FUD!

In vivo tests have in fact no meaning when it is not known whether tested drug can migrate in the needed dose to the tissue it should act on!
But you seem to have a handicapped memory and thus I repeat it once more for you. Ivermectin has been many times successfully proved in vivo to have the ability to do so. It is well know how the metabolisms, transfer etc. of Ivermectin in body works and it has been shown to work against CoV-19 with a reduction in death of at least 50% (worst case..)

On the other side the British study is talking of 1 live out of 7 saved by Dexamethasone . May be your math is different.... Further Dexamethasone has severe side effects and thus is only given to people facing the death roll anyway!

Quote from THHuxleynew

Conspiracy theories about COVID are certainly on topic for this thread. The set of conspiracy theory sites in the US politicising COVID, and making inaccurate claims about science (e.g. - COVID is no worse than flu) is certainly on topic for this thread, which is about debating factual info about COVID.

The only person here constantly claiming conspiracy theories at work are you. Together with your simple minded name calling you day after day complete your picture of one of the most ugly (and untalented) spin doctors I know.

Quote from Wyttenbach

one of the most ugly (and untalented) spin doctors

There are few beauty queens on LF AFAIK except for one or two propositioners

I have a beautiful blue censor which helps to reduce some of the FUD on this Covid thread

I have applied it to only two posters ... the other one was MaryYugo

Quote from JedRothwell

Here is a report on March 17, 2020 in Science about the S. Korean strategy for dealing with the coronavirus. This tells essentially all you need to know to contain the virus. Of course you need more detail, but this covers the overall strategy. It is exactly in line with the recommendations made by the W.H.O. in February. If the U.S. had followed these recommendations, we would have only a few thousand dead total, and ~200 cases per day and ~10 deaths. That is adjusted for population. (The U.S. population is 6.3 times larger than S. Korea.)

This article describes the S. Korean experience with MERS, which put the fear of God into them.

There were no lock downs or other extreme measures in S. Korea. We would not have needed them either if we has acted promptly and done the steps recommended by the W.H.O.

Trump and others have blamed the W.H.O. for the pandemic. That is a case of shooting the messenger because you don't want to hear the message.

https://www.sciencemag.org/new…-whats-secret-its-success

https://www.worldometers.info/…irus/country/south-korea/

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Jed do the calculation, Sweden had around 30000 new cases a day of infected, that's 150 000 with South koreas population and they maxed out with maybe 2400 new cases a day. We got everything on the same day basically and it took around 2 weeks before it was known we had cases - this is a lag of 2 weeks, we maxed out after about 3 weeks. We could have tested 1 million people or 5 million if Sweden was korea coming home from vacation to catch it earlier perhaps. I do think that we need more case trackers, but we really need to be able to say stop to travelling when there is a contagious deadly virus out on the run. So I think we need to be able to ground air traffic more easily and have processes ready to do this in an international coop. But that will not happen. Had we grounded the airflights around week 8,9,10 we would have a completely different outcome. With a total economical loss of peanuts compared to what we have now.

Quote from Wyttenbach

Further Dexamethasone has severe side effects

Richtig!

Pharma 101..simplified

Corticosteroids suppress the immune system.

In some cases .. inflammatory disease.. this suppression is beneficial .... otherwise mostly this is detrimental

the weakest CS is hydrocortisone.. used for skin rashs

the most common CS is prednisone used for asthma exacerbations and many inflammatory disease like lupus

it is based on a natural hormone in the body... cortisol... which is controlled tightly by the endocrine system

Dexamethasone is the strongest CS

Potency hydrocortisone (cortisol)= 1....... prednisone =~ 4 Dexa = ~25

For lupus longterm , dexamethasone is NOT used.... and hydrochloroquine is preferred to prednisone.

Reason: adverse side effects of CS... strongest in potent Dexa

• Acne
• Development of round/moon-shaped face (sometimes called “Cushing’s syndrome” after the physician who first described it)
• Weight gain due to increased appetite
• Redistribution of fat, leading to swollen face and abdomen, but thin arms and legs
• Increased skin fragility, leading to easy bruising

• Psychological problems Irritability Agitation, psychosis /euphoria (mood swings) Insomnia

• Increased susceptibility to infections
• Stomach irritation, peptic ulceration
• Irregular menses (periods)
• Potassium deficiency
• Aggravation of the following preexisting conditions:
  • Diabetes
  • Glaucoma
  • High blood pressure
• Increase in:
  • Cholesterol
  • Triglycerides
• May suppress growth in children
• Long term side effects:
  • Avascular necrosis of bone (death of bone tissue due to lack of blood supply):
    • Usually associated with high doses of prednisone taken over long periods of time.
    • Produces pain, including night pain. Pain relief usually requires either a core bone biopsy or total surgical joint replacement.
    • Occurs most often in hip, but can also affect shoulders, knees, and other joints.
  • Osteoporosis
    • Thinning of the bones.
    • Can lead to bone fractures, especially compression fractures of vertebrae with severe back pain.
  • Cataracts
  • Glaucoma
  • Muscle weakness
  • Premature atherosclerosis – narrowing of the blood vessels by cholesterol (fat) deposits.

Quote from stefan

Jed do the calculation, Sweden had around 30000 new cases a day of infected, that's 150 000 with South koreas population and they maxed out with maybe 2400 new cases a day.

I believe you have the numbers mixed up. Sweden maxed out at 1,800 cases on June 24. The 7-day average was 1,105. S. Korea maxed out at 851 cases. The S. Korean population is 5 times Sweden, so 1,800 cases is equivalent to about 9,000 cases. That is not an impossible burden to test for. Tracking might be difficult.

By June 24, Sweden probably had enough reagents and test kits to test for 1,800 cases. The totals began to fall rapidly after that, so I expect they did extensive testing, tracking and quarantine. If they had not, the cases would not have fallen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Quote from stefan

We got everything on the same day basically and it took around 2 weeks before it was known we had cases - this is a lag of 2 weeks, we maxed out after about 3 weeks.

June 24 was 11 weeks after the first cases in Sweden, and by that time, everyone in the world knew there was a pandemic. Also it was not "the same day" -- as you see in the curve. It was readily predictable.

Quote from stefan

We could have tested 1 million people or 5 million if Sweden was korea

It is not necessary to test 1 million people to control an epidemic with 1,800 cases a day. You test those who feel they may be ill, and anyone who has come in contact with a patient. You track the cases, and quarantine. Massive numbers of tests are not needed for these methods. The per capita number of tests in countries that have successfully controlled the virus are much lower than countries that have not controlled it, especially the U.S. Tests alone are useless without tracking and quarantine. In the U.S. tests results often take a week or more to be reported. That is utterly useless.

Quote from stefan

Had we grounded the airflights around week 8,9,10 we would have a completely different outcome.

By the second week that could not possibly have made any difference. Local sources of infection far outnumbered people coming in by airplane. However, it would have been a good idea to test and quarantine all incoming passengers.

Quote from JedRothwell

I believe you have the numbers mixed up. Sweden maxed out at 1,800 cases on June 24. The 7-day average was 1,105. S. Korea maxed out at 851 cases. The S. Korean population is 5 times Sweden, so 1,800 cases is equivalent to about 9,000 cases. That is not an impossible burden to test for. Tracking might be difficult.

By June 24, Sweden probably had enough reagents and test kits to test for 1,800 cases. The totals began to fall rapidly after that, so I expect they did extensive testing, tracking and quarantine. If they had not, the cases would not have fallen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

June 24 was 11 weeks after the first cases in Sweden, and by that time, everyone in the world knew there was a pandemic. Also it was not "the same day" -- as you see in the curve. It was readily predictable.

It is not necessary to test 1 million people to control an epidemic with 1,800 cases a day. You test those who feel they may be ill, and anyone who has come in contact with a patient. You track the cases, and quarantine. Massive numbers of tests are not needed for these methods. The per capita number of tests in countries that have successfully controlled the virus are much lower than countries that have not controlled it, especially the U.S. Tests alone are useless without tracking and quarantine. In the U.S. tests results often take a week or more to be reported. That is utterly useless.

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I used death rate and IFR South Korea tested extreamely

Quote from JedRothwell

I believe you have the numbers mixed up. Sweden maxed out at 1,800 cases on June 24. The 7-day average was 1,105. S. Korea maxed out at 851 cases. The S. Korean population is 5 times Sweden, so 1,800 cases is equivalent to about 9,000 cases. That is not an impossible burden to test for. Tracking might be difficult.

By June 24, Sweden probably had enough reagents and test kits to test for 1,800 cases. The totals began to fall rapidly after that, so I expect they did extensive testing, tracking and quarantine. If they had not, the cases would not have fallen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

June 24 was 11 weeks after the first cases in Sweden, and by that time, everyone in the world knew there was a pandemic. Also it was not "the same day" -- as you see in the curve. It was readily predictable.

It is not necessary to test 1 million people to control an epidemic with 1,800 cases a day. You test those who feel they may be ill, and anyone who has come in contact with a patient. You track the cases, and quarantine. Massive numbers of tests are not needed for these methods. The per capita number of tests in countries that have successfully controlled the virus are much lower than countries that have not controlled it, especially the U.S. Tests alone are useless without tracking and quarantine. In the U.S. tests results often take a week or more to be reported. That is utterly useless.

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There are trackable cases, and we had control on people from china and Itally. This was then people from outside of the known started to show up, prettu much everything came in week 9.

Quote from stefan

I used death rate and IFR South Korea tested extreamely

I do not understand what you mean by this. You said "Sweden had around 30000 new cases a day of infected." The correct number is 1,800. Where did 30,000 come from?

Quote from JedRothwell

I believe you have the numbers mixed up. Sweden maxed out at 1,800 cases on June 24. The 7-day average was 1,105. S. Korea maxed out at 851 cases. The S. Korean population is 5 times Sweden, so 1,800 cases is equivalent to about 9,000 cases. That is not an impossible burden to test for. Tracking might be difficult.

By June 24, Sweden probably had enough reagents and test kits to test for 1,800 cases. The totals began to fall rapidly after that, so I expect they did extensive testing, tracking and quarantine. If they had not, the cases would not have fallen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

June 24 was 11 weeks after the first cases in Sweden, and by that time, everyone in the world knew there was a pandemic. Also it was not "the same day" -- as you see in the curve. It was readily predictable.

It is not necessary to test 1 million people to control an epidemic with 1,800 cases a day. You test those who feel they may be ill, and anyone who has come in contact with a patient. You track the cases, and quarantine. Massive numbers of tests are not needed for these methods. The per capita number of tests in countries that have successfully controlled the virus are much lower than countries that have not controlled it, especially the U.S. Tests alone are useless without tracking and quarantine. In the U.S. tests results often take a week or more to be reported. That is utterly useless.

By the second week that could not possibly have made any difference. Local sources of infection far outnumbered people coming in by airplane. However, it would have been a good idea to test and quarantine all incoming passengers.

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A problem is that it takes 2 weeks of brewing before cases to be known a lag of two weeks could be cut down if we tested more. My point is that we then must test 1 million people. Also I believe that when cases start to climb people becomes very caustious, the time to max is amazingly constant among many countries in Noth West Europe

Quote from JedRothwell

I do not understand what you mean by this. You said "Sweden had around 30000 new cases a day of infected." The correct number is 1,800. Where did 30,000 come from?

IFR = ~ 0.0025-0.0033 = 1/300 - 1/400, max number of deaths / day ~ 100 => 30 000 - 40 000 cases a day for the number of deaths

Quote from stefan

IFR = ~ 0.0025-0.0033 = 1/300 - 1/400, max number of deaths / day ~ 100 => 30 000 - 40 000 cases a day for the number of deaths

ANother better meassure is to conclude there is a 5x difference in CFR between S. Korea and Sweden in the beginning of the spread. So

thats 1800*5 ~ 10 000 cases if we tested as much as south Korea or 50.000 cases a day If S. Korea had the Swedish outbreak.

Quote from JedRothwell

I believe you have the numbers mixed up. Sweden maxed out at 1,800 cases on June 24. The 7-day average was 1,105. S. Korea maxed out at 851 cases. The S. Korean population is 5 times Sweden, so 1,800 cases is equivalent to about 9,000 cases. That is not an impossible burden to test for. Tracking might be difficult.

By June 24, Sweden probably had enough reagents and test kits to test for 1,800 cases. The totals began to fall rapidly after that, so I expect they did extensive testing, tracking and quarantine. If they had not, the cases would not have fallen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

June 24 was 11 weeks after the first cases in Sweden, and by that time, everyone in the world knew there was a pandemic. Also it was not "the same day" -- as you see in the curve. It was readily predictable.

It is not necessary to test 1 million people to control an epidemic with 1,800 cases a day. You test those who feel they may be ill, and anyone who has come in contact with a patient. You track the cases, and quarantine. Massive numbers of tests are not needed for these methods. The per capita number of tests in countries that have successfully controlled the virus are much lower than countries that have not controlled it, especially the U.S. Tests alone are useless without tracking and quarantine. In the U.S. tests results often take a week or more to be reported. That is utterly useless.

By the second week that could not possibly have made any difference. Local sources of infection far outnumbered people coming in by airplane. However, it would have been a good idea to test and quarantine all incoming passengers.

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You are right one need to work pro actively. week 9 is basically empty of cases in sweden, they start to show up in statistics in Stockholm around 2 weeks from end of week 9.

Actually the peak number of cases is the peak in cases related to the peak in deaths. the peak in cases is due to a hughe number of more tests. so 2500 x 5 e.g. 12500 cases a day for the swedish outbreak in s. korea.

Quote from stefan

IFR = ~ 0.0025-0.0033

I think you are off by an order of magnitude. It is closer to 0.03. I realize there are reports of undetected illness, but I do not think they are valid in places like Korea and Japan. They would never have brought the pandemic under control if there were 10 times more cases than they knew about. In these places, at the peak of the infection, there were at most 2 or 3 times the known cases. Now there are practically none. But they still lose around 3% of patients. In Japan they lose a smaller percent before because nearly all patients are young people, whereas before there were more elderly people.

No doubt there are many undetected cases in the U.S. because our testing is so bad, but the death rate is higher too, and I expect there are many deaths ascribed to other causes.