Covid-19, Your health and that of your community

  • A particularly egregious case from SoCal: A run (10K IIRC) was sensibly cancelled because of the corona virus. So what did the organizers do next? They allowed participants to pick up their meet gear (placards, t-shirts and other memorabilia) in a local park from a table staffed with many volunteers with the stuff being handed and handled by many people and passed person to person until it got to the person wanting it. How incredibly ignorant, stupid, and negligent! The average person has no clue what a microbe is or how they spread. The average person knows nothing and cares nothing of science. Their priorities are church, sports, entertainment, and business. This is what will make the pandemic much worse than it would otherwise be. Nobody any more knows how things actually work.

  • Fortunately some of us do......we need antiviral therapy more than ever in the absence of any practical quarantine measures. Give them all a dose of chloroquine and both transmission and subsequent illness should be prevented as is the case in Africa.:)

  • We are perhaps beginning to understand why the coronavirus causes severe leukopenia, but "silence radio" (in french in the text) in the media:



    https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE


    How genes from the AIDS virus are found in a bat virus, giving it not only an affinity for the pulmonary épithelium, normal for a Cov, but also the property of killing monocytes and lymphocytes, it is a deep space mystery. Some ideas ?

  • ......and probably also in China Korea and Japan where they all have the common sense to actually use something shown to work rather than shelving the chloroquine as in the West and waiting for the medical system to catch up with the medical science. How long did it take for penicillin and other antibiotics to be used following their initial discovery using Petri dish experiments? Months or years? I'm afraid we are facing the same institutional constipation prevalent in medicine as in nuclear physics.:)

  • fabrice DAVID - are you inferring the Utopia conspiracy theory that this was an attempt to engineer a virus with the pathological properties of both HIV and the infection spread of a coronavirus i.e. a nightmare corona-HIV. It's a waste of time thinking about it - there is no proof either way because these spike protein mutations can occur naturally, spontaneously. Certainly a profound way of sabotaging Western economies though:).

  • fabrice DAVID

    Quote

    We are perhaps beginning to understand why the coronavirus causes severe leukopenia, but "silence radio" (in french in the text) in the media:

    https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE

    How genes from the AIDS virus are found in a bat virus, giving it not only an affinity for the pulmonary épithelium, normal for a Cov, but also the property of killing monocytes and lymphocytes, it is a deep space mystery. Some ideas ?

    Did you read the expert comments to this paper? Most state it's bullshit and give scholarly reasons and citations why. I know nothing about virus structure and receptors so it's not my opinion. It's from those who seem to know. Apparently, this paper, cited before on this forum, blows up the claims that the COVID-19 virus was somehow engineered using bits of HIV-1: https://www.bioworld.com/articles/433087-article-headline


    Quote

    “From everything I’ve looked at, there is zero evidence for genetic engineering; it looks like normal evolution,” said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who has been using genomes sequences taken from patient samples to track the spread of the virus since Jan. 11.

  • I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire, Dr William Hanage. professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University.


    https://www.theguardian.com/co…nity-coronavirus-covid-19


    Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them.


    When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.


    Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole.

  • Making your own hand sanitizer- an educational video shot an hour ago. I would recommend less glycerine btw, around 200 ml a litre of alcohol- based on using the product. Also it is possible to add hydrogen peroxide to the mix - up to 10% by volume of 12% peroxide is the max.


  • President Emmanuel Marcon tonight ordered a full lockdown in France, telling the public to stay at home and that Schengen borders will be shut from midday tomorrow.

    In a solemn live TV address on Monday evening, the head of state said that people would have to stay at home unless shopping for food or going to a pharmacy, heading for absolutely essential work, or exercising alone.

    Macron, who repeatedly said France was 'at war' with the virus, also announced that the second round of local elections due to be held on March 22 would be postponed.

    The police and army will strictly enforce the new restrictions, with so-far unspecified 'punishments' for those who break them.

    Hotels and other private businesses will meanwhile be requisitioned by the state in order to help treat sufferers of the lethal virus.

    Borders with other European countries will also be closed, although French nationals will be allowed to 'return home'.

    The measures will start at 12 midday on Tuesday, and go on for 'at least two weeks', said Mr Macron.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne…people-ignore-advice.html

  • A little update: Canada's covid19 count has now broken 400, with every province reporting an infection. Several days ago our prime minister's wife Sophie was diagnosed with covid19.

    Our death count has risen to four. All four were seniors from the same nursing home in British Columbia.


    Dropped into our local no name grocery store today. Maybe about 1 in 20 people wearing masks now. No pasta, no flour, no tissue paper, no toilet paper left in the store. All gone. Expanses of shelves just empty. A little surreal.


    Our car has been experiencing engine oil issues, and I have to bring it into our dealership every 1000 km for an oil top up and monitoring. I was there about 10 days ago and was talking with my favourite mechanic Chuck, who had just returned from holidays (don't know where). Well today I go back to the dealership for another oil monitoring and hear that Chuck had been sick and is in isolation for 14 days. Oh oh. About five mornings ago I woke up with some phlegm in my throat, something usual for me, unusual enough for me to jot it down on our family calendar hanging on the wall.


    Anyway. While I'm waiting for the car in the garage and reading a book in the lounge, I enter into a conversation about covid19 with a couple of guys nearby. One of the them asks if I know who Sylvia Browne was. I answered "wasn't she that psychic?" He then shows me his phone with the following picture on it, extracted from Browne's 2008 book:


    https://static.independent.co.…3-15-at-14.29.22.png?w660


    Not perfect, buy hey not bad! Got me thinking anyway. Good news is, now we know covid19 will end as suddenly as it appeared. :o :o


    Finishing this post, I hear my father in law in the next room watching TV, and he's just done about 10 seconds of an uncharacteristic dry hacking cough. Oh geez...

  • More papers about lymphopenia. It is very unlikely that natural evolution spontaneously integrated parts of the HIV GAG and GP 120 genes into a bat virus.



    https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE




    It will be up to the investigators to determine how and where such genetic construction came to be.



    In the meantime, this observation gives meaning to the strange symptoms caused by the coronavirus, notably severe lymphopenia: if the Wuhan Coronavirus carries proteins derived from HIV and targeting receptors present on lymphocytes, such as HIV, it is normal that it causes the disappearance of these blood cells, in addition to targeting and destroying bronchial epithelial cells, like other SARS-type coronaviruses.



    Rather than the term "Cov pneumonia" or Cov-19, it would be more appropriate to speak of airborne leukopenia or Airborne Immunodeficiency Syndrome or "Lymphopenic community acquired pneumonia" as some authors do.



    Of course, immunodeficiency in the strict sense has not been described, for one simple reason: patients who suffer from it die quickly. But they probably die from multi-organ failures related to blasting secondary infections, either in the lungs or in the digestive tract. A syndrome like "septic shock" with blockage of the kidneys by toxins. It is a real "acute and contagious AIDS" that our government has allowed to sweep over France.



    Two months ago, the stopping of flights from China would have killed the epidemic in the bud, leaving time to develop a vaccine, (admitting that it is possible to develop a vaccine against a virus targeting the immune system, and we’ve seen since thirty years that it’s not an easy task)



    Today, no one knows what the future will be like, and it is not the wiping out of the second round of municipal elections that will change anything.


    References :


    J Infect. 2020 Mar 4. pii: S0163-4453 (20) 30110-9. doi: 10.1016 / j.jinf.2020.02.029. [Epub ahead of print]

    Lymphopenic community acquired pneumonia as signature of severe COVID-19 infection: Lymphopenia in severe COVID-19 infection.

    Bermejo-Martin JF1, Almansa R2, Menéndez R3, Mendez R4, Kelvin DJ5, Torres A6.




    Lymphopenia predicts disease severity of COVID-19: a descriptive and predictive study


    Li Tan, Qi Wang, Duanyang Zhang, Jinya Ding, Qianchuan Huang, Yi-Quan Tang, Qiongshu Wang, Hongming Miao

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029074


    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…03.01.20029074v1.full.pdf




    absissa : % of lymphocytes.

  • Worldmeters shows only 30 new cases in France today. Perhaps the numbers are wrong? If it is true, it is excellent news, because yesterday there were 808.


    Alain: can you verify 30 new cases?

    We nearly don't test. only severe cases. There are great controversy about the Korean strategy to test, test, test... and then isolate and cure (this latest point is by Pr Raoult who relicated the results by Chinese, follwing thei guidelins used also by South Korea, now India, Iran, Saudi a=Arabia - to use chloroquine and some other antivial ... NB: don't use it, the Chinese doctors themselves explan how it is dansgerous and must be monitored daily, eyae, electrocardiograms...)


    my estimate is that about half a million french are contaminated. our governement was late like the Italians, but not using their experience... Germans are better because they test much more and stored test month before the shock...

    To compute the million Frenc... 150 dead, 0.5% letality on SK, thus 30000 infected people , and it takes about 2 week to die after the infection, thus they were 30k 2 weeks ago.... depending on numbers there is a growth from 4x to 10x per week... thus between 500k infected today to 3Mn infected...

    from 1 to 5% of the population


    probably not far in UK... count your dead, multiply by 200, then by your growth factor, from 16 to 100...


    our ICU are under panic... not sure they will have a respirator for me if I'm sick. Above 50, I don't know if they will not prefer to give it to a 20yo bastard who get to a disco last night.

  • Quote

    Anyway. While I'm waiting for the car in the garage and reading a book in the lounge, I enter into a conversation about covid19 with a couple of guys nearby. One of the them asks if I know who Sylvia Browne was. I answered "wasn't she that psychic?" He then shows me his phone with the following picture on it, extracted from Browne's 2008 book:


    https://static.independent.co.…3-15-at-14.29.22.png?w660


    Not perfect, buy hey not bad! Got me thinking anyway. Good news is, now we know covid19 will end as suddenly as it appeared. :o :o

    Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh. This is a case of the monkeys with infinite time paradox. Sylvia Browne was a greedy, slimy, stupid, lying woman who profiteered in the millions of dollars a year by bamboozling and abusing grieving people for money. Of course, the great psychic never saw her own end coming.


    Naturally, I wish you and yours a speedy recovery. It is useful to remember that common colds are common and at the moment, even influenza caused by influenza A and B viruses is still more common and kills more people than COVID-19. Of course, that probably will change but absent testing or a large cluster of nearby cases, give a thought to the possibility of having something else.


    ETA and OTC briefly:

    Quote

    Sylvia Celeste Browne (née Shoemaker; October 19, 1936 – November 20, 2013)[1] was an American author who claimed to be a medium with psychic abilities. She appeared regularly on television and radio, including on The Montel Williams Show and Larry King Live, and hosted an hour-long online radio show on Hay House Radio. Browne was frequently discredited and faced criticism for making pronouncements that were later found to be false, including those related to missing persons. She was also a convicted criminal, having faced theft charges in 1992.


    Quote

    On Larry King Live in 2003, Browne predicted she would die at age 88. She died in 2013, at age 77

    ROTFWL!

  • I just returned from what used to be a routine trip to the bank, in this case, to cash a check. I decided to wear a mask (I was the only person there with one). At least, they recognized me and didn't think the mask was so I could rob them! In order to get in and out of the restricted parking lot and complete this simple transaction, I needed to touch probably 8 - 10 separate items, some more than once, all of which had been touched by dozens or even hundreds of people between cleanings if they even were ever cleaned. I used hand sanitizer liberally and the bank, to its credit also had some laid out but it was 20 feet away from the teller window on a shelf! Why? Returning to my car, I removed the mask and got its straps tangled in my glasses. It will take practice to improve safety just for a trip to the bank. I wonder how long I have to leave the cash in a warm and dry environment before it's actually safe to handle without gloves. The world has indeed, at least for now, changed.