Covid-19, Your health and that of your community

  • Switzerland is now world leader of infections/Million of population. But we do 6000 tests/day. So UK should do 50000 or the US 240'000 to get the same figures...


    A Swiss antibody test (needs blood sample) is now in a test phase. I hope it's cheap & reliable.

  • Switzerland is now world leader of infections/Million of population. But we do 6000 tests/day. So UK should do 50000 or the US 240'000 to get the same figures...


    A Swiss antibody test (needs blood sample) is now in a test phase. I hope it's cheap & reliable.

    The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths is very similar between Switzerland and South Korea. Death rate about 1.3

    The Czechs have the lowest death rate at .22, followed by Israel and Australia. I'm supposing the virus strain type is factoring into this.

    https://www.statista.com/stati…us-death-rates-worldwide/

  • To go back on a serious way, what this picture learns us, we maintly have to better check hubs as airports to avoid deseases penetration.

    Since 11 sept 2001, more controls are made however we should add temperature control and establish a quarantime even for classic deseases for the future, i suggest.

    Better to be an US farmer ( middle west :):):))

  • A few of our engineers here passed along a saying: "time to shoot the engineers, and get the product to market". Same with this virus; at some point we have to shoot the doctors/scientists, and get the economy rolling again. If left up to them, we will be back to being hunter-gatherers, and subsistence farmers, before they say it is OK to get back to work.

  • A few of our engineers here passed along a saying: "time to shoot the engineers, and get the product to market". Same with this virus; at some point we have to shoot the doctors/scientists, and get the economy rolling again. If left up to them, we will be back to being hunter-gatherers, and subsistence farmers, before they say it is OK to get back to work.


    We see to effects now:


    There are many big pharma companies (Europe,USA) that behind the scene try to block the usage of hydroxychloroquine because this blocks their 1000$ shots they would like to see in the treatment of severe cases. The blocking induced by cheap medication is twofold:


    1: Most people don't even get to the severe state anymore.

    2: Even severe cases profit more than of expensive antiviral drugs as these do not work as expected in younger people.

    3: The main profit base of big pharma (90% of their income), the older people with preconditions, will die anyway because they are tested to late.

    4: There is no replacement for them if the younger do no longer get lung damage...


    Now the social problem:


    We learned to protect the weak as every live has a high value.

    (Nevertheless this is 100% opposing evolution)

    Who wants to see its older relatives to die?

    (I would do everything to protect them)


    The reality:

    - Big pharma e.g. in US prevented testing by hoping they can make money with a new one - failed. Orchestrated by corrupt CDC

    - In the mean time explosive growth of infections that only kills the old with preconditions (at least in Europe) .

    - Soon even medium severe cases will have lower chance to survive unless the cheap medication will be allowed and given early enough.


    The cynical question: Why should the people that did live the right way give up the country for unteachable smokers, cocaine addict bankers, or obese "burger-monsters" with diabetes and high blood pressure medication?


    Death rate among young and healthy is below 0.01% !!


    This all is very explosive and the prediction I will make here.


    If e.g. the USA - as expected, will fail to contain the virus within 3-4 weeks, then things go the natural evolution way (killing the weak) and knock out our civilization rules.


    Thus follow the rules as long and as good as possible!

  • https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.09320


    The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

    Cereda D, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Barone A, Magoni M, Deandrea S, Diurno G, Lombardo M, Faccini M, Pan A, Bruno R, Pariani E, Grasselli G, Piatti A, Gramegna M, Baldanti F, Melegaro A, Merler S

    (Submitted on 20 Mar 2020)

    In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed the first 5,830 laboratory-confirmed cases to provide the first epidemiological characterization of a COVID-19 outbreak in a Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews of confirmed cases and their close contacts. We collected demographic backgrounds, dates of symptom onset, clinical features, respiratory tract specimen results, hospitalization, contact tracing. We provide estimates of the reproduction number and serial interval. The epidemic in Italy started much earlier than February 20, 2020. At the time of detection of the first COVID-19 case, the epidemic had already spread in most municipalities of Southern-Lombardy. The median age for of cases is 69 years (range, 1 month to 101 years). 47% of positive subjects were hospitalized. Among these, 18% required intensive care. The mean serial interval is estimated to be 6.6 days (95% CI, 0.7 to 19). We estimate the basic reproduction number at 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.2). We estimated a decreasing trend in the net reproduction number starting around February 20, 2020. We did not observe significantly different viral loads in nasal swabs between symptomatic and asymptomatic. The transmission potential of COVID-19 is very high and the number of critical cases may become largely unsustainable for the healthcare system in a very short-time horizon. We observed a slight decrease of the reproduction number, possibly connected with an increased population awareness and early effect of interventions. Aggressive containment strategies are required to control COVID-19 spread and catastrophic outcomes for the healthcare system.

  • Gov. Cuomo of New York gave another excellent presentation. Among other things, he discussed how to get people back to work, and get the economy working, even before the pandemic ends. He has a commonsense plan to do this. He thinks that many people have already had the virus. Some of them may not even realize they were sick. They will be immune. He wants to test for antibodies. Anyone who had the virus and has recovered should be cleared to go back to work.


    He probably realizes that some recovered patients may not be immune. He has been talking to experts everywhere. Dr. Brilliant said that just about any infectious disease can sometimes re-infect a person, but it happens rarely so we shouldn't worry about it.


    Cuomo's presentation video is part of this article:


    https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-bo…on-in-new-york-is-spiking

  • Death rate among young and healthy is below 0.01% !!


    I think you mean 0.1%. It is actually 0.2%, but only with good medical care. If the hospitals are overwhelmed it will be higher. No one knows how high, but there is no doubt it will be higher, because many young people who get the disease have to be hospitalized. If there is no room in the hospitals, many more than 0.2% will die.


    https://www.worldometers.info/…rus-age-sex-demographics/


    See also:


    "Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.


    New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people"


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…navirus-young-people.html

  • 0.1% is influenza. COVID-19 is between 1% and 10% (Italy). Percent of infected individuals of course, not of entire population.


    This was in a community forum in Southern California where I also saw three of my neighbors having an animated conversation less than a foot apart in the parking lot. People simply have no education about microbiology. They need to be taught simply what microbes are!



    Quote

    PLEASE, leave your kids home

    I'm an Amazon manager, working at Whole Foods Market, running the grocery delivery service for Prime Now. I'm appalled at how many parents are dragging their kids, in number, to the grocery store. What about "stay home" aren't people understanding?!?! These workers are putting their lives and health at risk so people can bring all their kids grocery shopping like it's any other day! You are exposing these workers to exponentially MORE people just because the kids are bored. PLEASE, I beg you, come in alone, do your shopping for the week and leave. Don't hang out, don't bring all your relatives, make it quick and go! Thank You! Stay safe and help us do the same :)


  • I think more people are giving thought to how society will open back up in a month or so. Several leading epidemiologists here in the U.S. seem to be in relative agreement that the peak of this spike is about 2-3 weeks away from now. Nothing is certain, and they said the spread of the virus can behave in all sorts of unpredictable ways, but at least we have an idea.


    1. It will be interesting to watch Wuhan, they are a couple of months ahead of everyone else. So are they able to stay open and keep the virus to under a hundred new cases per day?


    2. How will people feel psychologically about being back out in public places? There will still be new cases, and people will still be losing their lives from the virus, but there will also be an attempt to have some kind of normalcy at the same time.


    3. How will people talk and plan for the next potential spike? Will there be a sense of dread about it?


    First we just need to get through the next few weeks. NY has really gotten hit hard. Will that continue to be the hotspot or will new ones in the U.S. emerge? A lot of questions.

  • A few of our engineers here passed along a saying: "time to shoot the engineers, and get the product to market". Same with this virus; at some point we have to shoot the doctors/scientists, and get the economy rolling again. If left up to them, we will be back to being hunter-gatherers, and subsistence farmers, before they say it is OK to get back to work.


    Shane: that is crass and not worthy of you. I don't often get angry here but you are pushing all the buttons for this.


    The doctors don't want to be playing God deciding which 10% of an overloaded patient list gets the available ventilators. If you shoot them then who gets to make this decision? You? Good luck.


    Scientists are not making political decisions, just doing their best to make accurate predictions, as they should. And while they will not be perfect a decent prediction based on evidence is better than a conflicting, changing from day to day, gut or PR determined sound bite. Out of respect for non-political nature of this site I will not give examples to prove that such bizaare behaviour actual happens, but most here will think of examples.


    It is then politicians who decide what to do: not scientists. And we can see where that has got us. The most successful political response (and best for the economy too) has been in China.

  • The most successful political response (and best for the economy too)has been in China.


    Republic of China response..

    https://mynorthwest.com/178507…plete-taiwan-coronavirus/


    "A WIRED article speculates Taiwan’s success is the result of many things, including transparency

    — the government kept citizens informed early on —

    and they implemented everything they learned from SARS and swine flu outbreaks in 2002 and 2009.

    Not to mention, Taiwan’s vice president is a trained epidemiologist.

  • I think you mean 0.1%. It is actually 0.2%, but only with good medical care. If the hospitals are overwhelmed it will be higher. No one knows how high, but there is no doubt it will be higher, because many young people who get the disease have to be hospitalized. If there is no room in the hospitals, many more than 0.2% will die.


    As I mentioned already. USA will be different and New York even more. 1/3 of the bankers are cocaine addicts and thus a high risk group. Second factors are overweight diabetes even among younger people.


    Among the first 3000 deaths in Italy there were no young people - may be they are tougher or have to fight longer until they die.


    The numbers of infections in USA are skyrocketing and its easy to predict that it will end like WWII with 100'000's of deaths. Now India has cut the ties, but India is the most important supplier of generics for the USA...


    Lets talk again in half a year, when we will see what the Harvard business school of mind - profit over all! - did do to the no longer existing US base industry. I hope Germany and France or Japan can jump in!


    (Trump will never ask China...)


  • That is not meant literally! It is an engineer saying mentioned here a few times, that I applied to this virus situation. It is not meant to disparage engineers, or doctors/scientists, or wish them harm.


    The meaning is that; just as an engineer will never want to stop tinkering to make something better, same goes for doctors/scientists wanting this shut-it-down-strategy to stay in place for much too long. Leave it up to them, and we could be shut down for months. By then the economy will be totally tanked, and with that comes all kinds of nasty things that far outweigh the nasty things we are experiencing now.


    So, as with the engineers, and getting the product to market, at some point you just have to push the scientists/doctors aside, and get on with it.

  • That is not meant literally! It is an engineer saying mentioned here a few times, that I applied to this virus situation. It is not meant to disparage engineers, or doctors/scientists, or wish them harm.


    The meaning is that; just as an engineer will never want to stop tinkering to make something better, same goes for doctors/scientists wanting this shut-it-down-strategy to stay in place for much too long. Leave it up to them, and we could be shut down for months. By then the economy will be totally tanked, and with that comes all kinds of nasty things that far outweigh the nasty things we are experiencing now.


    So, as with the engineers, and getting the product to market, at some point you just have to push the scientists/doctors aside, and get on with it.


    Shane, glad you did not mean it literally.


    You are still avoiding the issue. Rather as certain politicians are doing.


    I agree there is a strong case for allowing 100,000 extra elderly people deaths (and much smaller number of younger people excess deaths) in order to preserve the economy.


    That is a political choice. We'd hope it is made transparently and honestly.


    What has that got to do with pushing the scientsists (who estimate how many deaths particular actions will result in) aside?


    This is weird talk. The only reason to push the scientists aside is if you are trying to cover up the expected number of deaths.