Covid-19, Your health and that of your community

Quote from Shane D.

True, riots and civil unrest may never happen, but the US is preparing for it now, due the threat COVID poses to the US...just in case. Like everything nowadays, there is a mainstream journal article to back-up what I say. Not that I needed that to know the obvious, but always comes in handy.

Shane,

See the comment directly below your post above.

“Mainstream News” articles can be worth less than 2 dead flies. The authors and masters have agendas and if reporting the truth dots their agenda then they report the truth.

If the truth does not fit their agenda then it is twisted, turned and perverted until it does.

Just sayin,

Quoting a “Mainstream News” article as proof is a crapshoot.

Quote from Wyttenbach

This idea is only half way working: If we once are hit by the same virus kinetics (incubation 14 day spreading before symptoms multiplication rate > 4) but with a death rate of 30% then you need completely different equipment. The only thing that will work is what nature does since 100mio's of years. Create isolated habitats, what means cut any traffic in/out for well defined areas that can sustain living isolated for several months.

As mentioned many times before: Uncontrolled globalization is 100% in contradiction with natures evolution rules. Thus you first have to tease the robot minds of some economic leaders...

some how I would think that having hospital beds , isolation wards, masks, gowns, oxygen monitors, heart/BP monitors, filtered/UV air ducts,…. will always be needed.

Quote from Shane D.

You are King for the next 6 months. King of the world. Whatever you say goes. You have been dealing with the COVID for 3 months now:

Your counsel of medical experts, is recommending months more of social distancing...or however long it takes until the virus is no longer a threat. They estimate *possibly* up to several million deaths world-wide will result, if your shut-down order is lifted too soon.

Your economic counsel is advising you the world will soon be, if not already, in recession, followed by a depression. There will be mass unemployment, industries permanently shut-down, many others so weakened they will be flirting with bankruptcy for years to come. Your Federal Reserve will have to print trillions more; weakening the financial system even more. The longer it takes, the worse it will be.

Your Homeland Security team is warning that if this keeps up much longer, they anticipate riots, social unrest, increased crimes, murders, and general mayhem.

Your counsel of mental health experts, is advising you that there will be a tremendous price to pay in lives lost, and mental health issues resulting from the disruption, and lowered living standards brought on by the economic depression, and social isolation policies.

Then there is the media hounding your every move. Like Chihuahuas constantly nipping at your ankles. They have turned this into a political assault on your leadership. Shaping/framing/distorting and hyping stories, with misleading/false headlines, designed to turn the people against you, so you lose the next election.

So King, what do you do? Who's advice do you follow? How do you lead your people out of this?

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How about this.

Everyone everywhere except necessary emergency personnel, dr. Firemen, truck drivers, grocers, emergency services etc are quarantined.

No debt collections for 90 days, rents,

credit cards, checks, grocery, pharmacy, services, hardware stores etc. people can buy food, meds, get their furnace fixed etc,

By writing a check or using credit card.

At the end of 90 days, the Fed works with banks, credit unions, lenders etc to make them whole.

Lending institutions have much deeper pockets and can probably sustain 0 income for 90 days before it gets painful.

Probably a million holes in this tho

Quote from oldguy

isolation wards, masks, gowns, oxygen monitors, heart/BP monitors, filtered/UV air ducts,…. will always be needed.

All equipment has its own live time. The more electronics /fine micro- mechanics the product contains the shorter it is. Key is to be able to produce a high number of the needed equipment in a short period. This needs deep planning and clear thinking minds like the boss of the Swiss branch of Hamilton, that did buy all needed stuff (for Ventilators priced at some 10'000$) just a after the first infections were known in China. This also means binding capital! = Taking risks.

Quote from Roseland67

No debt collections for 90 days, rents,

Sorry: At the end of the day somebody has to pay! If the state pays --> inflation as you have to pay more for imports etc.. May be you should once have an eye on the US import statistics then you might understand why this will happen.

Quote from Shane D.

So King, what do you do? Who's advice do you follow? How do you lead your people out of this?

No easy solution, but here is what I'd do:

(practical)

(1) tell those highly at risk that they need to be locked up tight for maybe 8 months or risk death.

(2) follow extreme social isolation strategy for a few moths until infection rate goes down and health system is better prepared for mass treatment

(3a) release the extreme lockdown only at time when it is known that although virus will ramp up again, measures are in place to prevent health system saturation.

(3b) delay lockdown release, if needed, until we have decent trial info of the most likely drug treatments and know how best to manage the illness

(4) Put ALL POSSIBLE EFFORT into strengthening ability of health system to cope

That is it. If virus case load becomes too large, first enforce lockdown of those who are vulnerable, then if needed reimpose lockdown on all, but this is undesirable, best to pull out all the stops to increase health system capacity.

This balances economic and personal harm, while minimising personal harm. The only better solution is:

(ideal)

(1) Put all effort into improving test and trace capacity (hire trace teams, add labs, whatever)

(2) Put in place rigorous, well-thought out, lockdown conditions (organised delivery of essentials to all, working social security as needed, freeze on overhead payments so no-one has to go out to survive)

(3) Put in place systems for rigorous quarantine on borders

(4) lock everyone down tight till virus is almost gone

(5) release lock by geographic area known free of virus

(6) use test and trace rigorously to keep opened areas clean and also trace spreaders anywhere who will slow down virus decrease

(7) back to normal when virus free as China, but with all systems on alert and test and trace activated whenever needed to sit on a local outbreak. This needs extensive continuous tracing

The trade-off:

practical: many more people die, however health system can cope and many fewer than if they were getting ill before we had best treatment, or at a rate that health system could not cope with

ideal: minimum number of people die, but country remains on high alert with big resources given to test and trace till we have a vaccine.

Personally, I like ideal. What China has done. It is still maybe the cheapest in the long run. But, if not possible, the pragmatic solution is a decent compromise.

In addition, re the economy:

devalue / engineer inflation so that within 5 years currency is worth 30% what it is now

keep house prices (indirect instruments available) fixed over this period

(1) we are back to sensible asset prices, with housing "tax" no longer unreasonable

(2) net worth of those living on capital reduced 1/3. Those living on earnings do fine.

(3) the mountain of debt we have struggled with since 2008 is reduced to 1/3 - publish and private. The economy can flourish once more.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Personally, I like ideal. What China has done. It is still maybe the cheapest in the long run. But, if not possible, the pragmatic solution is a decent compromise.

I think what they did in Korea and Japan is closer to ideal. They had a big advantage over China: they saw what was coming. They were several weeks behind China. So, they never had to resort to such extreme measures. They did close down some cities, such as Sapporo, but not as tightly or as long as the Chinese closed down Wuhan. If the epidemic had gotten out of control the way it did in Wuhan, Sapporo would have been closed much longer and more tightly.

The Japanese acknowledge that they learned a lot from the Chinese medical establishment, and they followed their lead in many ways. If the U.S. had done the same thing, learning from China, then learning from Japan, we would probably have the virus under control. We learned nothing, and did nothing to prepare.

It reminds me a little of the Battle of the Atlantic in 1942 against German u-Boats. The U.S. Navy made every mistake that the British had made in World War I, and then every mistake the British made in 1940 and 1941. For example, the U.S. did not start convoys until hundreds of ships had been sunk. The U.S. Navy even forgot some important lessons they themselves learned in 1918! Then the U.S. went on to make several more mistakes that no other country would make, such as not ordering East Coast cities to turn off their lights. This backlit up ships far out to sea, making it easy for the u-boats to see them in silhouette. The Germans called this "the happy time" because they sank 609 ships easily, with only 22 u-boat losses. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Happy_Time) Finally, toward the end of 1942, U.S. defenses were organized and they began to stem the losses, but the worst time came in 1943. As Churchill remarked, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else." Tens of thousands of American sailors were killed in 1942 because we ignored what the British learned, and happened before 1942. Hundreds of thousands -- possibly millions -- will now die because we refuse to learn.

Quote from Shane D.

You as King, have to know these things

Oh King, what would your orders be?

why do I think of Kobayashi Maru?

The coronovirus reached Kazakhstan, in Aktau we have 3 infected with a coronovirus, we work on-line, but there are a lot of people walking around, until they understand what awaits us ...

Trump is now relying on anti-virus treatment working. If it doesn't he's scuppered. Hydroxychloroquine or other analogues have to be given to everybody to be used prophylactically in the same way it is used to treat malaria. Then up the dose if fever or cough develop and use antibiotic azithromycin as well with Zn supplements.. Other anti-virus particularly RNA polymerase inhibitors similarly should be used at the first sign of symptoms. Avigen (favilavir from China/Japan) and remdesivir. The protease inhibitors too but these seem less effective. Frontline use of just the Hydroxychloroquine azithromycin Zn combination may be adequate as Dr Vladimir Ze!enko's trial on 350 patients shows. What else? The usual healthy diet supplemented with tonic water, liquorice extract, coconut oil, Echinacea, flavonoids contained in green tea, beans and broccoli,, anthocyanins in blueberries strawberries etc. Gives you a broad range of anti virals in addition to the hard-core drugs. In addition multivits plus Ca and Vit D and I g doses of Vit C a day.

Quote from Shane D.

I see absolutely NO "balance" here between the economy, and minimizing personal harm. None. Just the 8 months alone would destroy your kingdom.

Here in the real world, there is no need to destroy our economy. No trade off is needed. The Chinese and Japanese have not destroyed their economies. Even though we botched our response to the pandemic, and we are likely to have hundreds of thousands of deaths, and possibly millions, there is still no need to go to stage two and destroy our economy as well. We can do what Cuomo and others advocate, opening up the economy one step at a time, as more and more people recover and have natural immunity. We just need to protect old people. Once we bring down the numbers so there are enough hospital beds and ventilators, we can treat the 20% of young people who need to be hospitalized.

The economy was not ruined in 1918. Why should it be now? It was paralyzed and shut down for months, just as it will be now. As long as essential services and food are available, and the government doles out money, we will be okay. They should take the money from wealthy corporations and wealthy people, including me.

Granted, the administration might end up destroying the economy anyway, even though there is no need to do that. There was no need to let the pandemic get out of control and kill hundreds of thousands either, but they went ahead and did that, by blundering and innaction. It wouldn't surprise me if we enter a deep depression because of this, but it can be avoided.

People who say we should restart the economy today cannot suggest a way to do that. They have no actual plan. This is not a real option -- because it cannot be done! A conservative columnist wrote today that "nonessential" businesses such as bars, restaurants, hotels and malls must be reopened because they are "indispensable sources of income for millions of Americans." Who does he think will go back to a mall?!? Who will take part in this re-opened economy? If thousands of people are dying every day, no sane person would go to a restaurant or mall! Even a young person would know that he has a ~10% chance of dying in hospital parking lot two weeks later, with no medical help. It is like playing Russian Roulette. Would you risk that just so you can go to a mall? They could give away goods in the mall, or hand out airplane tickets for free. No one would take them when they come with a side-order of pneumonia in a city where there are a hundred critically ill people for every hospital bed.

I think what they did in Korea and Japan is closer to ideal. They had a big advantage over China: they saw what was coming.

I agree - but we were asked what would we do (in UK, US). Who saw what was coming but did not respond in that way initially, so are in a different position.

I see absolutely NO "balance" here between the economy, and minimizing personal harm. None. Just the 8 months alone would destroy your kingdom. Your subjects would have been storming the Castle, with the proverbial pitchforks. and torches in hand long ago.

Shane: pay attention to details. In my "pragmatic" plan those locked up are those most at risk. Nearly all of pensionable age. The rest of the economy is not locked up for 8 months, merely for a brief time as is needed to prepare the health services for the larege number of patients to come.

Quote from Alan Smith

Tokyo is in lockdown now. Since Sakura (the cherry blossom holiday) when plenty of people were out on the streets the infection rate ticked up sharply.

Not really. On Wednesday the governor suggested that people should not go out this weekend. It is two-day voluntary semi-lockdown. She coordinated with mayors * of the suburban cities, who asked everyone to refrain from going to Tokyo this weekend. The lockdown ends on Monday.

The infection rate did not uptick sharply. There were 80 cases yesterday, 40 more than most recent days, but I believe all were investigated and accounted for. Most came from overseas and were immediately hospitalized and quarantined. No one has died in recent days. There are 57 cases in intensive care, in the whole country.

The cherry blossom holiday was cancelled, nationwide. The TV showed empty parks. There was a 3-day vacation last week, which usually leads to packed trains, but everyone stayed home.

* Tokyo has a governor, like a prefecture. The surrounding suburban cities are part of prefectures, so they have mayors. The governor of Tokyo is Yuriko Koike, a conservative.

Taiwan CECC

CECC confirms 15 more imported COVID-19 cases; most cases linked to traveling abroad

These patients entered Taiwan between March 15 and March 25 and displayed symptoms between March 8 and March 25.

Most of these patients had traveled to the United Kingdom (seven patients) and the United States (six patients)

before the onset of disease. The patients went overseas mainly for work (eight patients) or study (five patients).

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bull…WgSjCCOQa9X6fQ?typeid=158"

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/File/Get/HAJOlEJfo0pu57Wcl7QedA

Quote from JedRothwell

On Wednesday the governor suggested that people should not go out this weekend. It is two-day voluntary semi-lockdown. She coordinated with mayors * of the suburban cities, who asked everyone to refrain from going to Tokyo this weekend.

See:

https://www.nippon.com/en/japa…-japan-by-prefecture.html

Mr Lee..at the Istana ..Singapore

Not just a rainy day..

https://www.channelnewsasia.co…conomy-save-jobs-12583084