Covid-19, Your health and that of your community

  • Compassion is only being measured by how long a period you are advocating the shut-down last. The longer you argue for the social distancing to last, supposedly the more compassionate you are. But there should be compassion for those who will die, and for the 100's of million's of disrupted lives, as a result of these policies.

    Lives will be disrupted for as long as the pandemic rages. Nature will decide this, not us. As long as patients are dying in large numbers, people will be afraid to go out. You cannot end the shut-down while thousands of people get sick and die every day. No government order -- or suggestion, or $2 trillion spending package -- will persuade people to go back to work, or back to the mall, or restaurant, when doing that may well kill you.

    Read what is happening in Italy, and what life is like there:…avirus-italy-bergamo.html

    It isn't just old people. People in their 30s and 40s are dying, because the hospitals are overwhelmed. In a week or two, that is how life will be in U.S. There will be thousand or tens of thousands of people dying. Every morgue will be overflowing. You would have to be crazy to try to go back to normal life in these circumstances. No president, king, mayor or movie star could convince anyone to stop "social distancing" when this many people are dying. Any sane person will be frightened to go out of the door.

    How long this will last, no one can say. Ironically, the longer it lasts, the fewer people will die, because more hospital beds will be available. If it happens in the space of 6 or 8 weeks, like the peak of the 1918 epidemic, it is likely millions will die. Say it is 2 million, which is low estimate for the catastrophic 6-week scenario. That's 48,000 deaths a day. That's 6 times more than World War I at its height, which was the most savage time in human history. People in every city and town will be paralyzed with fear. Young people die at only 0.1% today in countries with an intact healthcare system, but 20% of them are seriously ill, and have to be hospitalized. But there will be no room in the hospitals. Many, many more young people will die than in China, Japan or Korea where the 0.1% statistic came from. The deaths must increase at the same 1.3 rate as the new cases. If the rate does not change, the deaths go from 268 yesterday to 344, 448, 582 . . . and by Easter, 22,000 a day. This is a law of nature. It is how epidemics work in nature. Unless humans do something to prevent it, and change the natural progression, this is what must happen. Any biologist will tell you. We are doing nothing to change it. It is obvious we are doing nothing, because the rate is not changing. It is actually getting worse.

    That is what we are confronting. Our only hope of moderating it is social distancing. We can't avoid the epidemic now, but perhaps we can make it less horrible. Do you seriously think we should stop doing this, at the cost of millions of lives? As for the economic cost . . . Do you think I would not give every dollar I have to save the lives of my children? "The cost" you say! Disrupted lives??? Have you any idea what it is like losing your children? Yes, mostly old people will die, but millions of parents will lose their children, and that's worse than dying. It is an unthinkable price to pay, even compared to a second Great Depression. No economic disruption compares to it. You can always print money. You can always go back to work. You can rebuild a house that burns down. But you never, ever, "get over" losing a child.

    This is real life, not some science fiction novel. We really are looking at hundreds of thousands of lives lost at a minimum, and millions if we stop social distancing. Every epidemiologist agrees. Every model shows that. Events in Italy and Spain bear it out. We had a chance to stop this, weeks ago. Or at least to prepare for it. We did nothing. The government, and the president, did nothing. Now we will all pay a fearsome price for that stupidity.

  • I'm going to offer this without comment. I saw and recorded the videos first hand.

    1) About a month ago, US White House Chief of Staff Mulvaney said to a meeting of conservative politicians that coronavirus was a hoax generated by the opposing party to block re-election of the president. At the time, Mulvaney had already been tested for COVID-19 and was fully aware of the risk of a pandemic. At the meeting were at least three people who, soon after, tested positive.

    2) The Prime Minister of England bragged about shaking hands with COVID-19 patients. He now has the infection. Hopefully, he will recover but he might not or his health may be permanently impaired.

    3) At a ceremony today celebrating the signing of a 2 trillion dollar bill to help the US economy, the President and his advisors not only completely ignored social isolation, standing inches from each other, but also passed celebratory pens around, sometimes pens touched and held by several people. It doesn't matter what their politics are. This is not about politics. It is about abject stupidity and a horrible example for the world at large.

    This is a screen shot from about one hour ago:


  • There were 80 cases yesterday, 40 more than most recent days, but I believe all were investigated and accounted for. Most came from overseas and were immediately hospitalized and quarantined. No one has died in recent days.

    Correction: 2 people died yesterday, and 2 more today. Yesterday's total was 81. Today it is 80. This has scared the bejeezus out of people, as well it should. If it starts increasing they may have hidden cases, and they may be in trouble.

    80 is still a manageable number. There have been about ~100 per day in Korea for weeks. They are keeping a lid on it, with massive testing, both drive-in and walk-in. They have not had to resort to shutting down cities. As I said, Tokyo is in a pretend shut down this weekend. People there tell me things don't look any different. If the numbers start increasing above 80, they will soon have a honest-to-goodness shutdown.

    Meanwhile, in Georgia, with over 358 new cases today, the governor says it is not yet time to shut things down. Apparently he wants to wait until shutting down will no longer prevent a catastrophe. People still do not understand what "exponential growth" means. Unfortunately, even governors and presidents do not understand this concept. I guess it seems unreal, or unbelievable. You look at 268 people dying today, and the rate of increase, and you can be sure that if the rate does not change in few weeks there will be 10,000 people dying every day. This is what happened countless times throughout history, most recently in 1918. Yet people cannot bring themselves to believe it. I believe it, because I have read history, and I am old enough to have heard first person accounts, and because I lived in Japan 25 years after WWII. During that war, 3 million people were killed, mainly in bombing raids. Every middle-aged adult remembered that vividly. They knew horrible things can happen to you. It was the unspoken background to every life story, every decision, every investment, every marriage.

  • Don’t know how you can just say that Shane

    It will be down but not “trashed”

    No one is unemployed, they are simply furloughed until business begins to ramp up again, (hopefully in 90 days).

    Unemployment $$$ gets you they full then,

    Remember, your not gettin billed for anything. Your income $$ is strictly food, meds and services if needed.

    One thing is for sure, is this beast isn’t stomped out, and assuming it could start up again what options do you really have?

  • Oh brother. All I can think of, is that you feel protected from the consequences of shutting down the economy. Those in that category, will surely have a different perspective on the best solution to get us out of this mess.

    But maybe you are vulnerable, and speaking form the heart. I just do not know. Before saying more, can you tell me your situation?

  • Australia has quite a few casualworkers in the service sector

    who have been "let go"

    The government's compensation package has been slow to unwrap..

    Hopefully, those in the video waiting for their assistance, take comfort in knowing that their government handlers will never miss a days salary. Or ever have the worry of a pay cut, or reduction in their lucrative retirement package.

  • The governor of New York has proposed establishing corona-virus-only hospitals. Here's an improvement on that. Staff those hospitals with medical people who have recovered from the corona virus.

    Or with younger doctors and nurses. At the Presbyterian Hosp. in New York they had a staff meeting a few weeks ago, and decided to do that. Because young people die at a lower rate than old people.

    In the UK and in New York, they are asking retired doctors and nurses to return to practice. I think they are waiving license requirements for the emergency. I hope these old doctors are being assigned to non-coronavirus facilities, to treat other illnesses, accidents and so on.

    The gov. of New York is keen to restart the economy with people who have recovered from the coronavirus. He wants to start a large program testing for antibodies. If they show you had the disease, you are cleared to go back to work. Maybe they will issue bracelets? Or hats? I do not know if the antibody test is available yet, but reports say it soon will be.

  • Oh brother. All I can think of, is that you feel protected from the consequences of shutting down the economy. Those in that category, will surely have a different perspective on the best solution to get us out of this mess.

    But maybe you are vulnerable, and speaking form the heart. I just do not know. Before saying more, can you tell me your situation?


    Retired engineer, now musician,

    husband of 40+ years, father, son, brother etc, 20 miles due west of chicago,

    it’s getting ugly here, expect uglier soon.

    Wife just got furloughed, medical benefits are going to be a question soon.

    Our retirement account, like most, has been crushed.

    We are homebound as our kids demanded.

    I didn’t say it was a solution, you asked,

    so I gave you an opinion as King Roseland67

  • Piazza di Spagna webcam...…oma/piazza-di-spagna.html

    And a recipe email from a friend in N Italy.

    "I found these simple instructions in my vintage 1962 copy of – Cuba Missile Crisis Deluxe Edition – (U.S. Dept. of Defense Publications).

    Quarantini Daredevil French Toast—A Sunday Breakfast Special. (Also known as "Oeufs à la Roulette Russe")


    1. Rusty can of Maple Syrup from back of cabinet.
    2. Plumber’s vise grip
    3. 2 expired eggs (check out date stamped on egg)
    4. 1 residue slice of bread from old loaf in back of fridge
    5. Any left-over frying media: butter, marge, crisco, any vegetable oil, grease, old drippings from last Sunday’s roast beef.

    Open Maple Syrup with vise grip. Whip one egg slightly and fry with slice of toast in buttered/greased pan. Serve with maple syrup. Simple as that!

    After breakfast, take second egg and immerse in 1 quart of water. If egg sinks, you win😀. If egg floats, you probably got food poisoning, you lose!
    Don’t call 911, they’ve got other problems.

    Have a lovely Sunday!

  • Think I’ll stick to coffee and a few cookies,

    Thanks though.