The latest figure I found was about $9 trillion. Today it’s probably quite a bit more. Our IP advisors are some of the best people on the planet. We are going to distribute working reactors. Patents are filed but not published yet. I don’t worry about clean planet or other competitors as I think competition is a good thing for all.
Mizuno style reactors WITHOUT precious metals...by Nickec
-
-
While nothing ever goes as fast as it could or should things are moving now. Our first nextgen prototypes should be ready within September. If the initial tests go well, with any luck we can start distributing them by the end of the year.
-
I’ll start to share designs of the calorimeters we are building later this month or early September
-
In the plot of steady-state temperature vs input power on slide 6 of your presentation, I see little indication that the LENR reaction is temperature dependent. The temperature difference between the active and control reactors appears almost the same from 350C up to 600C whereas I would have expected this difference to increase dramatically with rising temperature.
How do you see this? Is this plot consistent with the exponential dependence of reaction rate on temperature that you have measured elsewhere?
Yes Bruce you are correct. The exponential equation was found in our own lab. The data on slide 6, was from an outside validation experiment. The reactors they had were previous generation. Let’s see how the latest data pans out.
-
Yes Bruce you are correct. The exponential equation was found in our own lab. The data on slide 6, was from an outside validation experiment. The reactors they had were previous generation. Let’s see how the latest data pans out.
To be clear. By reactors that are "previous generation" do you mean ones that use Pd on Ni as described in the several papers by Mizuno and Rothwell?
Note added in edit. I ask the above so as to draw a distinction between the new generation reactors which purportedly do not need precious metals and the previous generation ones that do. This is useful because I gather that the details of the new generation reactors cannot be disclosed whereas the details of the previous generation ones, a la Mizuno and Rothwell, can be discussed.
-
JedRothwell This is older, yet answers this question better. How much does the world pay for energy used in a year?
https://www.enerdata.net › world-en...World Energy Expenditures - Enerdata
Nov 28, 2011 — More than US$6,000bn1 -10% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is spent each year in the world for energy purposes.
Ah, that's good. I searched many databases I assume are authoritative, such as EIA.gov, IEA.org, https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/ (for the U.S.). I came up with an estimate of $6.7 trillion per year. I think that estimate avoids double counting, such as including the cost of natural gas used to generate electricity, and then also including the cost of natural gas in the cost of electricity.
$6.7 trillion is what I used in the video "Cold fusion will lower the cost of energy." It is an approximation.
I also estimated the approximate cost of making cold fusion generators, and the average power consumption of a household in the U.S. or Europe. These are not guesses. Apart from the cold fusion cell itself, we can be confident we know the cost of the heat engine and generator portion of a cold fusion co-generator. We can estimate this based on the cost of small generators today. We can also be confident that the average household needs 20 kW of capacity. This is the most common size of a standby generator for a house. There are various web sites where you configure a stand-by generator. Configure it for an average U.S. house and it adds up to around 20 kW.
I estimated we need 170 million generators, water heaters and pumps worldwide based on today's generation capacity (7.1 TW), and the number of people, and the number of houses and apartments in the world. These are approximations.
You cannot take 7.1 TW of capacity and multiply it by hours per year to determine electric power output. Baseline generators such as nukes are run nearly every hour of the year at close to full power, but most other types are turned down, or turned off at night. Wind and solar are variable, of course. You cannot take the nameplate capacity (nominal capacity) of a wind turbine and multiply by hours per year. It is probably ~30% of that on land, or ~40% offshore. People do not erect wind turbines in places where they get less than 30% of nameplate.
With my plan, worldwide generator capacity would increase from 7 TW to 51 TW, but overall costs would fall by a factor of 20. With cold fusion it would be much cheaper to install many small generators with no grid and no power company, even though total generation capacity is 7 times greater. Installing 51 TW of today's conventional grid-connected generator capacity would be a crazy waste of money.
-
The latest figure I found was about $9 trillion.
Where? What are your sources? I would like to follow up on that, for a paper I am writing with Dave Nagel, and for the formal version of "Cold fusion will lower the cost of energy and equipment."
-
I will check my source but one of my staff found this when I was writing the MTI business plan
-
Where? What are your sources? I would like to follow up on that, for a paper I am writing with Dave Nagel, and for the formal version of "Cold fusion will lower the cost of energy and equipment."
Jed I think our previous source over estimated global energy. It was a Japanese source that converted everything to MTOE and then applied an average price.
Global Energy Consumption - Market Summary, Competitive Analysis and Forecast to 2025Global Energy Consumption - Market Summary, Competitive Analysis and Forecast to 2025www.researchandmarkets.comThe actual figure is probably closer to $5T as outlined in the above reference which is about 5.3% of global GDP. Suffice it to say it’s a very big number. One of the world’s most valued companies is Saudi Aramco which is worth about $2.35T and trades at a PE ratio of around 21. That means that Aramco makes “only” about $100b. If a hypothetical CF company is able to sell energy as a service at 50% margins and reach 20% market share, we are looking at $1T in revenue and $0.5T in earnings. PE of 20 would give about $10T in valuation.
There is a lot of “ifs” in these numbers but after analyzing this dozens of ways we just like to say the market is “very large”. Hard to argue with that!
-
I think there are about 1b people without electricity today and about 3x that without clean cooking fuel. I would hope that CF would help bring these people out of the poverty trap and start a long trend of growth that will immediately stop population growth and then we can focus on factor four or factor ten type resource efficiencies. Energy will substitute for many resources at the right price point.
-
Jed I think the consensus is about 160k TWh per year for all energy sources which gives an instantaneous power of about 18.26TW as an average power consumption rate. That’s the equivalent of about a billion 20kW generators at a capacity factor of 100%. Again this is a massive oversimplification but the result is the same. The market is still “very big”
-
If a hypothetical CF company is able to sell energy as a service at 50% margins and reach 20% market share, we are looking at $1T in revenue and $0.5T in earnings. PE of 20 would give about $10T in valuation.
Not to nitpick, but a 50% net margin seems very optimistic. Especially in the context of utility companies, which have regulated returns on equity capital.
-
Jed I think our previous source over estimated global energy. It was a Japanese source that converted everything to MTOE and then applied an average price.
That's a gorblimey method. Average price of what? Oil, coal, uranium, wind? Some energy sources are much more expensive than others.
The document you referenced says:
- The global energy consumption sector had total revenues of $4,479.5bn in 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2016 and 2020.
I wonder if that is for fuel only, not including things like new and replacement generator construction. That would explain why this estimate is ~$4.5 trillion and others are more like ~$6.7 trillion.
Why did you say "$9 trillion" in your message above? Typo? This says $4.6 billion in 2020, as noted.
The actual figure is probably closer to $5T as outlined in the above reference which is about 5.3% of global GDP. Suffice it to say it’s a very big number.
A very big number, and surprisingly difficult to estimate. Different people use different methods of estimating, and different criteria as to what to include or exclude.
Comparing present day energy costs to cold fusion is an apples-to-oranges comparison. A decentralized system has a very different cost structure. A completely different set of vendors, winners and losers. Your local HVAC installer would be a winner, along with the company that manufactures the equipment. Your electric power company would be a loser. ExxonMobil would be nonexistent. The market for oil as feedstock is large, but I expect synthetic products made with cold fusion and organic waste or carbon and water will completely replace it. That seems safer, cheaper and easier.
For several years, cold fusion co-generators may cost a lot of money per unit. Maybe $20,000? Much more than the furnace they replace. A gas fired home furnace costs $2,200 to $4,000. I have been going over the numbers with Dave Nagel. I came up with the following for today's energy sources and equipment:
ENERGY
Average residential energy costs are:
$115/month electricity, $1380/year
Average monthly electricity bill for U.S. residential customers declined in 2019
~$100/month gas, $1200/year
(Various sources)
Electricity and gas total: $2580/year
These numbers almost exactly match what we pay at our house. We keep track of utility costs for tax purposes. Electricity costs per year $1,164, natural gas $1,333.
EQUIPMENT
Average home furnace cost $3,900
Average water heater cost $1,200
(Average air conditioner $5,651, but an early model co-generator would not replace it)
Total $5,100
They last about 15 years, so annual cost is $340/year
Today's annual cost of energy plus equipment: $2,920/year
Most people cannot afford a $20,000 co-generator. A smart HVAC company would offer one on the installment plan, with a 10 year loan term. I gather interest rates on a consumer loan are 5.95%. This online calculator tells me a $20,000 loan for 10 years would cost $2,664 per year, which is less than the $2,920 you pay now. Not that much, but after paying off the loan you would still have about 5 years left in the equipment, which would be 5 years of zero cost electricity and zero cost space heating and water heating.
Personal Loan Calculator | BankrateUse Bankrate's personal loan calculator to find out your total payment on any loan.www.bankrate.com -
(Average air conditioner $5,651, but an early model co-generator would not replace it)
In the distant future, thermal air conditioning with cold fusion, or with a cold fusion cogenerator waste heat, might be possible. The waste heat will heat the house in winter. In summer it will be dumped out, so perhaps it can be used to run an air conditioner. I think this might be cheaper than today's air conditioners, but I am not sure. So, for now I will leave the $5,651 as is. I will assume it is powered by the cogenerator. Air conditioners draw 2 to 4 kW. With thermal air conditioning, you might get by with a smaller cogenerator.
Air Conditioning Using Waste Heat and Solar Energy with Phase Change MaterialsEnergy is an important phenomenon in today's hectic world. A lot of researchers are doing research in this field due to its wide importance and also d…www.sciencedirect.com -
I think there are about 1b people without electricity today
That's what I said to Frank Gordon There are 1Bn people who depend on kerosene lamps. a 3W LEC lantern would transform their lives.
-
It’s debatable whether is cheaper and easier to just make electricity and use normal a/c or to use dangerous ammonia for absorption or LiBr adsorption chillers. In commercial settings it’s almost always cheaper to use efficient chillers. Since fuel cost is negligible this changes equation from using every bit of energy and more towards capex and safety.
-
Daniel,
Does your experiment "rule out" hydrogen or deuterium diffusing or leaking through the reactor surface to chemically react slowly with the oxygen in the oven air?
One method is to seal the H2 or D2 in the reactor and then run it for long enough that the excess energy produced exceeds what is in the reactor.
There is a similar but smaller effect due to the iron or nickel in the reactor walls oxidizing -- again can be ruled out by total joules greater than the enthalpy of combustion of the reactor components.
Good luck on the project. My personal suggestion would be to both file the patent AND compete for the X-Prize -- you can use the proceeds for the next phase of your commercialization.
-
That's what I said to Frank Gordon There are 1Bn people who depend on kerosene lamps. a 3W LEC lantern would transform their lives.
That is true. Add a USB port for cell charging....
-
OK, so where is the reliable open Mizuno protocol for heat generation? If memory serves me well, he recommends to cover nickel mesh mechanically by rubbing with palladium rod and (after multiple washes with acetone and thorough outgassing) to expose it to deuterium at elevated temperatures. Which replacement of palladium prof. Mizuno recommends?
-
Hello Zephir,
I believe that the replacement is confidential at this time. But I think that there are multiple different techniques that could be utilized to create the surface modifications that are probably generated by the palladium. I think Storm's new method of melting and implanted inert particles and/or exposure to ions from a plasma could both work.
