22passi feature a document about the impact of breakthrough energy
http://22passi.blogspot.fr/201…s-of-breakthrough_14.html
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ABSTRACT
The history of energy technologies developed and deployed from the onset of the industrial revolution is marked by strong discontinuities where socio-economic systems based on the dominance of an energy source and related energy conversion technologies embark in paths of relatively swift transformation driven by the invention and deployment of new energy technologies. Historical precedents suggest that the hypothetical development of breakthrough energy technologies in this century should be considered at least one among the various future technological scenarios of humanity. This article analyzes the strategic implications of the deployment of a non-fossil breakthrough energy technology in this century. The impacts on the energy industry will likely consist in a profound transformation of the incumbent system based on the extraction and conversion of fossil fuels. In a long-term scenario, a BET deployment in the electricity sector could well mean the end of conventional nuclear and coal as options for generating electricity. The growing diffusion of a non-fossil distributed breakthrough energy technology would make less compelling the extension, operation, and protection of the energy infrastructure for the international supply of hydrocarbons. The implications for environmental security would be significant as well. Such technology revolution has the potential to be a geopolitical game changer by affecting significantly the ability of sovereign states to pursue their strategic objectives.
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CONCLUSION
The deployment and diffusion of a breakthrough energy technology has the potential to produce profound economic changes and to be a geopolitical game-changer in the 21st century. The geopolitical and geo-economic standing of the ‘technology winners’ can increase significantly. The financial and strategic clout of fossil-fuel (coal, natural gas, and oil) exporters is likely to decline, although the net impacts for some of these countries might not be necessarily negative in the long run. In fact, chances are that the rift between geopolitical winners and losers of a new energy revolution should gradually get narrower over time. In light of the risks that the global environmental challenges pose to the continuity of the technological civilization, it is more likely that the benefits that a new energy transition driven by a transformational energy technology will have on international security will far outweigh the negative impacts.
