anonymous Member
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Posts by anonymous

    Exactly. Other than the little bump shown in one example, the heat just monotonously rises from the start, but goes higher than the calibration. It is like the reaction ‘knows’ it will be anomalous.

    Paradigmnoia & Cipolla: Disagree IF the output was say 50 extra degrees or 250 more watts when temp is calibrated to power than the control because excess heat might be a continuous function of temperature; such that the slope is increased without a bump. There would only be a bump if there was a way to "turn on" the excess heat when already at calibration temperature.


    I am not impressed that we have a definitive demonstration if the excess temperature is only say 10 degrees on a 200 C base, i.e. that could be caused by other variations in the control vs. the active run (especially if the control unit and reactor unit are not literally the same piece of hardware).

    My serious opinion is that Rossi is lying about that. The 23 people do not exist. You may disagree with me, but you have no business saying that is not a "serious opinion," because Rossi has often lied in the past. He has lied repeatedly, extravagantly, even when there was no reason to lie, and no benefit to him. He has lied to me, personally, when he must have been aware I knew the truth. He is, in short, a pathological liar. One who delights in lying for its own sake. He is not unlike certain prominent national politicians in the U.S. and the U.K., who shall remain nameless.


    23 -- it's a prime number. And only two pressed keys on his keyboard.


    There is no information from the fill in the blank questions and answers called "Journal of Nuclear Physics". I'd love to be wrong, but I am afraid the entire "wait till January" presentation will be another puppet show with an absence of meaningful anything. Responding to Rossi on JONP is just feeding his ego.

    You need an SEM to see if the Pd deposited on the Ni, or if the Ni was rubbed off by the Pd.


    You need a lot of other instruments to analyze the results. Fortunately they are not in situ. You can send samples to another lab. Unfortunately, the samples seem to get contaminated in the mail.


    I don't recall that in the instructions. Regardless ...


    Cannot an ordinary 100x optical microscope aid in differentiating transfer of Pd to Ni or Ni to PD -- surely it has a scaled layer effect similar to when a layer delaminates that can be seen with optical inspection and appropriate lighting?

    Quote from Jed: "$500,000 to setup a lab like Mizuno"


    Perhaps 100K would be enough with a bit of serendipity




    To replicate and measure the heat as was done by Mizuno we don't need a SEM nor Gamma spectrometry.


    Rough needs:


    Vacuum turbo pump, rougher pump, vacuum chamber, tubing and valves, reaction mesh, lab grade gas, mass spec or RGA, temperature sensors, air flow calorimeter rig as per Mizuno, and a garage workshop to host it all plus about 6 months of time to put it together. If you have the spare time and the spare workshop space, maybe $20K. Not $100K. Certainly not $500K. You get excess heat or you debug why you don't have excess heat. Assuming it works the experimenter can bring in other scientist to his/her lab to review and then rehost the rig in their lab with all the more specialized equipment.


    This is what makes the Mizuno recipe so valuable -- its relatively cheap and fast to build and it is a completely open recipe (unlike some others whose names will not be mentioned). I would wait until 3 to 5 people have either confirmed or rejected that the recipe works. Looks like we have one confirmation so far in Hokkaido, but the details are sparse, i.e. half the data has not been provided to Jed and hence published. Over time we will get here in public complete confirmations. If we don't get them, then the experimenters' had problems getting positive results.

    Of course he can measure the output! It is right there in the slides I referred you to:

    ...

    You keep repeating this fantasy. Who is it that would do this? Why would they be convinced by 250 W, but not by 108 W? If you know these people, why don't you ask them to visit Saito, who is much better positioned to demonstrate a 150 W reaction. He has better instruments, a better lab, and access to some best surface analysis machines in the world, at Hokkai PEEN, Inc.


    Explain why your imaginary wealthy friends would flock to see a 250 W reaction, yet they will refuse to see a 150 W reaction in a far better equipped lab with a much higher s/n ratio. What sense does that make?


    Jed,


    I don't want to in any way support an argument between either or you or 7/20. You in particular do our LENR community a MAJOR service by communicating the Mizuno results to the world. 7/20 is a critic, but in his criticism it allows us to focus and improve our science. I really don't like to see when you two get in an argument. Please gentlemen.


    I want to point out one concept only:


    The Hokkai experiment has a 500/350 = COP 1.42 output level. However, to calibrate it requires that the airflow calorimeter, which is a complex unit, is calibrated on radiation vs. convection vs. conduction losses on the control run vs. the active run. This is not trivial and takes time to check.


    However a 150 watt in, 450 watt out = COP 3.0 device has just so much less ways for calibration to throw off the result, i.e. we can be 3x times less accurate in our calibration and still have a result that is at the same level of significance.


    Signal to noise is essentially proportional to COP * Power/Power_Measurement_Error; and because to be incontrovertible, assuming noise is normally distributed, a signal to noise ratio of 3 is 3 sigma = 0.13% single tail = 99.87% probability of disproving the null hypothesis. This is near certainty. That is the major reason why higher power and higher COP makes the test easier for more casual observers to be convinced of the effect -- better signal to noise so near certainty of a positive result.

    In my own work, I'm finding the vacuum integrity of the cell and related plumbing to be the biggest challenge. After replacing all the valves and much of the plumbing, the required level of vacuum (E-5 Torr) can be initially reached. However, as I commented previously, holding this level of vacuum with the pump off and valves closed is much more difficult. My system shows a leak-down at room temperature of ~0.5 Pa per hour, not great but close to acceptable. However, when the cell is heated to 160°C this degrades by several orders of magnitude, as shown by the attached chart.


    Note that the extended bake-out did not appreciably change the leak-down behavior as would be expected if it was from adsorbed water vapor. My conclusion is that there are flaws in the welding of my locally fabricated cell and thermal expansion opens them to allow entry of air. I've ordered a new cell from a vacuum fabricator who tests for leaks with He prior to shipping. I suppose this kind of requirement would be assumed from the start by someone skilled in the art of high vacuum.

    How long did you bake out? I see it is at 150C which should be high enough, but remember that the volatiles can include oils at have higher boiling points than water. It looks like you baked for about 3000 seconds, i.e. about 40 minutes. Normal bakeout would be around 12 to 24 hours. And you have to bake everything that is within the sealed to vacuum pump section, i.e. including the lines right up to the valve and the vacuum gage. This implies heater elements around additional components. This can present a problem in that the heat might damage the vacuum gage and depending on your metal vacuum line lengths, they may also transfer heat to your vacuum pump, potentially damaging it.


    My suggestion is to bake for 24 hours, come back in, turn the heater off, let the pump pump down to the maximum vacuum (minimum pressure), and then seal the lines off and do the times vacuum rise test.


    Then, repeat with another 24 hours bake, heater off, pump down, valve off, and other vacuum rise test.


    1) Is your minimum pressure lower after the second bakeoff. If so, this proves you have removed some volatile elements from the rig during the additional bakeoff and you may have to continue for more time.


    2) the rate of rise indicates the amount of volatiles or gas entering the vacuum chamber from either the walls or a leak. Changes in the maximum vacuum or rate or rise between bakeout cycles are indicative of whether you have an actual leak or have volatiles or absorbed gas coming out of the metal walls. You can curve fit this equation on excel for example and thus calibrate the parameters of your system to see how it is performing.


    3) Remember that exposing the walls of your apparatus to air to change components will bring you back to the pre-bakeout stage.


    It's tedious, but in some ways fun. Enjoy.

    anonymous


    The main problem talking about Rossi is that he brings out strong emotions for and against. Understandably, as there are those public court documents for all to see, his JONP as a constant reminder of his (lack of) character, weighed against him possibly having something that could save the planet. Not much in between, hence we fight, and emotions run raw.


    That can distract from the main purpose of this forum, which is as you say for "a societal good purpose" of discussing, promoting, and hopefully advancing LENR. Not all are like you, and while we have very healthy membership ranks, and many more Guest followers, there are many who are so turned off to the mud slinging they stay away.


    The main problem is lack of courtesy in civil discourse. Polite disagreement is fine. Impolite ad hominem attacks are unacceptable. We are discussing science and if each poster would abide by the self-imposed rule of making certain their on topic response is to the observed facts and not embellished to be aggravating to other readers, it would both increase the signal to noise ratio and would allow us the bandwidth to discuss the technical merits and flaws in the science (and the experiments) we review.


    Ad hominem attacks here are like terrorism -- they spoil for all the ability of the institution (in this case the forum) to function for all. Unfortunately this requires good forum moderation (to remove these flame bombs) of which I am greatly appreciative of your collective efforts as moderators. Thank you.

    Shane,


    I am a scientist, i.e. I believe in the scientific method of proving or disproving hypotheses. I come to LENR Forum for the open views on both sides (supporters or skeptics) of the "LENR" (or cold fusion, or whatever model we want to call this excess energy phenomena). Here LENR Forum serves a societal good purpose as it is 1) concentrated on the topic of each device/experiment; and 2) open for those who follow each device/experiment with greater time investment or contacts then other people (like me) have. It spreads information. It is up for the reader to digest the information and draw their own inferences. In general I find the quality of the commentary, on both sides (supporting or skeptical) of very high quality, and better than a competing forum that appears to only favor one side.


    Please keep a Rossi thread open so that the news and commentary on his experiment can be transmitted to the rest of us.


    Thank you,


    Anonymous


    P.S. I am a Rossi skeptic but that doesn't mean I don't want to hear from both people who think he "has it" and people who think he has nothing. I always keep an open mind until something is proven (using the scientific method) beyond any reasonable doubt.

    If you have the $$ you might just want to get a TMP system such as the Leybold Turbolab so that it has all the connections, roughing pump, controller, systems to turn off the TMP until the roughing pump pulls a fair vac, and so on. https://www.idealvac.com/Turbo…ms-NEW/pl/1363-44-232-414


    Waste of money. You simply run the rougher through the turbopump until you get to about 2 Torr or better, then flip the switch on the turbopump to pump it down. After it has stabilized you then turn the baking heat on to outgas the water and volatiles.

    THHuxley and Robert Bryant,


    You're both word fighting/arguing over how much excess heat R20 makes when you both agree that R20 makes the output air hotter by 13C vs 3C for the control on the same 50 Watts input from the presented data in figure 5.


    Irregardless, it is an astounding result that will likely soon be replicated by multiple parties. Hotter MUST be excess power from the reaction (assuming the thermal characteristics of the control vs. the active reactor in the calorimeter are substantially similar). Sustained for sufficient time, it must be non-chemical excess energy. That is a revolutionary result. Only excess power makes things HOTTER if the other thermal characteristics are the same. It must be non-chemical, i.e. LENR.


    A better calorimeter can and will be built later by other scientists and engineers looking to exactly quantify the LENR effect. Arguing over the first calorimeter's accuracy/inaccuracy when the results is clearly HOTTER is like not seeing the forest for the weeds.


    If you continue investing your time in this technical disagreement, can you both please tone it down and make it less personal. (I.e. eliminate personal and personal possessive pronouns when critiquing the other's work.) Thank you.


    Got it. You are saying we really can't know what the emissivity is on the inside and that it changes depending on the hypothesized Ni metal hydride (actually deuteride) on the inside.

    The emissivity of the stainless sheath increases with temperature .. the available data suggests ..

    so an estimated sheath temperature of 700 C for a reactor inner surface T of 370C and

    RT emissivity of 0.2 may be excessive



    Robert,


    Please link the reference to the variance in polished 316 stainless steel (i.e. unoxidized) emissivity vs. temperature. This is very useful if true. But, it is in disagreement with this reference with when compared to unoxidized gold or platinum. If the surface doesn't oxidize (as in gold or platinum). See:


    http://www-eng.lbl.gov/~dw/pro…culations/emissivity2.pdf


    It is also in disagreement with the polished stainless steel numbers (0.075) in this table or 0.16 in the table above:


    https://www.engineeringtoolbox…y-coefficients-d_447.html.


    If your source is better please cite it so I can use that data.


    Thank you.


    Suggest you try it unless you have funds for the turbopump. Price is right compared to turbopump + backer pump setup. If two stage Alcatel gets you to the 10^-4 Torr level, it does. If not, you can trade it in or use it for a backer pump. If you don't replicate, perhaps because of insufficient vacuum, you can re-evaluate at the time to decide if you want to pay for the more expensive equipment. By then other replicators should be getting results.

    The basic Reactor Vessel is constructed as follows:

    Take a piece of 24” Stainless Steel tubing with a 4” diameter and place two Bored Conflat Flanges, CF 6”, Bored 4”, tapped holes. Weld them in place.

    Standard practice is to polish all the welds and then pickle such fabrications in (most recently) strong and hot citric acid, rinse them off with deionized water and check for leaks at the designed operating temperature.


    Source of 24" x 4" stainless steel pipe:

    pipingnow.com/4-Seamless-pipe-schedule-10s-stainless-steel-304-304l-astm-a312-asme-sa312/


    Why 304 stainless instead of 316? Does it matter? What did Mizuno use?

    Continuation of Post 1161:


    The fit is MUCH better over the Figure 4 calibration data (from Mizuno ICCF22 preprint) using the V = A * exp(Wb/w) + B regression than using the V = Vmax(1 - exp(Wb/w) regression.


    I took the data from Figure 4 and ran the regression. The model using my rough data input from figure 4 came out:


    B = 7.7081

    A = -6.5602

    w = 6.0603


    vs the regression from fitting the data in post 1111 provided by Jed:


    B = 7.53828

    A = -6.38828

    w = 5.78291


    Thus, I come to the conclusion that


    1) Mizuno et al used the calibration data to generate the factors A, B, and w in the spreadsheet; and


    2) the data provided in post 1111 is then using the above model from blower power to derive airspeed.


    I believe that the calibration is reasonable and that the airspeed values are reasonable.


    I do not have a fluid dynamics physics reason why the model (V = A * exp(Wb/w) + B) works empirically, but it does work (residual standard error 0.03). It works better than a linear model (RSE=0.10), or a two factor exponential model (V=Vmax(1-exp(-Wb/b), RSE=0.15).


    (A possible hypothesis is that the zero blower power airspeed B - A, could be from natural convection if the reactor is heated. An even hotter reactor would have a tendency to increase this natural convection effect so that the estimate of airspeed from blower power would be underestimated at higher temperatures, and thus the calorimeter output mass airflow heat removed would be underestimated at higher temperatures. If true, this is conservative at higher temperatures than the calibration, i.e. the reactor is making even more heat. I would prefer again to calibrate under identical conditions with identical emissivity tubes, but the error would mean the experiment is creating more heat than measured.)


    Note that if Jed supplies us with the 6 decimal points of data that Mizuno used to generate the calibration (the underlying data in Figure 4), we will likely get the same exact values.

    The problem is that spreadsheets are all more precise than than 5 decimal places, and this one shows different answers than yours. So you got the wrong answer. If the function you wrote here gave the right answer, it would agree with Mizuno's numbers to more than 5 decimal places.


    1) I fit the original 49 points (post 1076) to all the precision you gave us, (4 decimals to the right of the decimal point). You subsequently gave me 45 points (post 1111) or which points 16 to 45 are entirely new, but all to six decimals to the right of the decimal points. The new linear fit to the NEW DATA matches to 5 decimal points. This is because it appears (without seeing the formula in your spreadsheet and the parameters) that you generated airspeed from blower power using an exponential of the form


    V = A * exp(Wb/w) + B.


    The first derivative of V with resepct to Wb, i.e. dV/dWb is exactly the slope of the linear regression fit that I came up with. It fits, but it is not the formula that you used.


    Could you please provide us with that formula and the used parameters for A, B and Wb?


    2) Using Figure 4 from your Mizuno et al ICCF-22 preprint, I agree that for wider ranges, an exponential function would fit better. Is there any data at the zero point of the graph. Can you provide us with the table of Center V velocities vs. Blower power?


    3) Do you have any airspeed (i.e. non-zero) measured at zero blower power from convection. What temperature was the control reactor cylinder at when that airspeed was measured, or was it zero? If the airspeed is zero then this equation would fit better: V = Vmax(1 - exp(Wb/w)) so that at zero blower power you get zero V.


    4) I am almost certain that after calibration airspeed used for the calorimetry was derived from blower power rather than a live anemometer in the rig. Can you confirm that is the case?

    [See my continuation of this analysis in post #1163 below]


    Entirely agree Ascoli.


    We know that the wind speeds and the power did not come from independent measurements in Jed's provided data, because they exactly match.


    The equation V = A exp(-Wb/w) + B


    is suspect, because the airspeed is non-zero at zero input power to the blower because the exponent goes to 1 as Wb goes to zero making V0 = A - B.

    [Subsequent Edit: this equation fits empirically better]


    At infinite power V goes to Vmax = B.


    Are we suppose to believe that V0 is some kind of "convection" bias? Maybe. [Subsequent edit: probably but not certain that is why this equation fits better] But then it is surely based on the difference between reactor or control tube temperature and room temperature. See as it appears that both the blower and the output conduit are on the top of the calorimeter box, am having a problem believing that the V = 0.3 m/s for the 2017 experiment, or using your calibrations (or mine) 1.1 m/s. I suggest that B = A and by having a different B != A (!= does not equal) suggests an extra emperical degree of freedom in the power vs. airspeed formula to make it fit better which is undoubtedly contained somewhere but not shown to us.


    I suggest that it makes more sense to fit real world


    V = Vmax * (1 - exp(Wb/w)


    where Vmax is a limit of wind speed due to turbulence effects and fan inefficiency at high back pressures.

    [Subsequent edit: this equation doesn't work as well as the V = A exp(-Wb/w) + B -- see my subsequent numerical investigation in the following posts]


    Of note it that the above equation when fit (you can use solver if you only have excel) gives Vmax = 5.9766382 and w = 3.0938366 for standard error of 1.43e-6 and a worst error of 0.000003. Therefore, I suggest at least for these data the use of the third factor B is unnecessary as we are overfitting.


    To do this right, we need real calibration data for blower power and airspeed at input powers between 0 and 7 watts as the spreadsheet snippet is way too small. Mizuno et al has this in Figure 4 of the most recent pre-print data.


    Agreed Ascoli. I ran this non-linear regression and got slightly different answers:

    A = 6.38827916

    w= 5.78290823

    B= 7.53828388


    My results also agree to Jed's to the 6th digit to the right of the decimal point, having a residual standard error of 2.1e-7.