Interesting to see a jump in cases today in the U.S. It looked like cases were coming down to the 22k-23k per day range. It definitely feels like a time to start looking at the numbers again here in the U.S. We do not seem to be going the way of Spain and Italy which have kept their new cases down.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Deleo
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Posts by Deleo
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/…sessing-covid-19-vaccine/
"Vaccine experts say Moderna didn’t produce data critical to assessing Covid-19 vaccine" <-headline
Yeah, whatever they did, it's still early days. How many drugs and vaccines fail in Phase 2 or 3 clinical trials? A lot.
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There are fewer people during senior hour. It is two days a week starting at 7 am. The grocery store was practically deserted at 7 am this morning. Close to 8 it gets crowded. They limit the total number of people by limiting the number of shopping carts, which is clever.
FWIW - I saw a commentator with a medical b/g on an interview where they said that if Georgia opening back up were to lead to an increase in new cases, we would likely see it happen in the last week of May. That was their estimation of the time it would take for the virus to spread and people to show symptoms, get tested for them and get the results. GA essentially went first with the opening up, so it will be interesting to see what their daily new cases are in about a week.
Spain and Italy seem to be doing pretty well so far.
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Obviously this can be sped up, by spending a lot more money and doing testing and the construction of mass production equipment in parallel. The risk is that the equipment will be the wrong kind and it will have to be modified or scrapped. That would cost money. That's a risk worth taking. This is a dire emergency. People's health, their lives, and the whole economy is in jeopardy.
And more than anything it's about messenger RNA (or mRNA), which is a different kind of vaccine where essentially the vaccine directs the body to make the medicine that protects it from the virus. It's interesting and unproven technology - article below. If Moderna can get it to work (or one of the other groups) they probably will win a Nobel Prize for it. It would speed vaccine development by years.
In terms of the time it takes for approval (here in the U.S.) it's really up to what the FDA is comfortable with. They can approve any drug they want. Moderna will have a test later this summer on a 1,000+ people. The key will be if that test produces antibodies in that larger group, so it's effective with no side effects. If it does (and who knows if it will) then it's just a matter of how long the FDA will wait before giving it the green light. I would think it would be 6 months tops if everything looked ok. So in the early part of 2021. That would be a bit of a miracle in terms of getting a vaccine that quickly.
The issue of making it and distributing it is another story. Getting it to billions of people would be another major accomplishment that would take many months if not years.
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Agreed, but that is not the point.
IF, and it is a big IF, a therapy can be found which will adequately prevent deaths, it needs to be available only for those people who catch the virus, when they catch it, and who have severe symptoms, not the whole population. And it removes the fear and allows activities that would increase the infection rate.
So the number of doses needed initially is 1000s of times less than for a vaccine, and eventually is still maybe 20 times less.
It turns COVID into a medium Flu in terms of its damage.
In addition, compared with a vaccine, efficacy is much more easily established, and safety is less of a problem because it is onbly given to people who need it for their own treatment. Though prophylactic use, also considerrd here, would have a higher safety bar.
No, I agree. If any of these antibody shots were to work, it would be a huge deal. I put them above anything else in terms of something to hope for (besides a vaccine). Based on what I have read I think Regeneron has a good shot at it (which is why Regeneron has basically been the best performing stock in the stock market since this all started).
If they (or anyone else) can get a working antibody therapy it would make a lot of people feel a lot better, even if a vaccine is a ways off. It's the thing to watch for this summer.
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Not much detail...
and yes, the internet / news media is full of false or misreported claims. (Yes, from BOTH sides of the aisle)
However, IF this story is factual and true, it would indeed lead back to "business as usual" it would seem depending on availability and cost.
This is what is truly needed.
https://www.foxnews.com/scienc…rus-antibody-breakthrough.
It is sad however, that some will immediately dismiss this simply because where it is being reported at! (Like THAT frame of mind is really scientific!)
What Sorrento and others have been doing with antibody shots has been reported on extensively since the outbreak. What they and others are trying to do is new technology and science. Regeneron has been doing it for a while by making antibodies to treat cancer.
It's kind of a horse race to see who can come up with one first. A lot of people are betting on Regeneron. They said they believe they have two treatments that work and are going into Phase 3 clinical testing for them this summer.
The problem is these therapies are difficult to make in large volume. Harder than a vaccine. But more of it can be produced than convalescent plasma. So it's a step in the right direction. But to get rid of Covid we would need billions of doses of vaccine to truly eradicate it.
https://www.wbur.org/hereandno…coronavirus-antibody-drug
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/fe…rd-immunity-wont-save-us/
Well balanced article about everything you ever wanted to know about herd immunity. Why it may work, and why it probably will not. They admit there are may unknowns. Nice interactive graphic to play with.
Below is kind of a grim assessment regarding herd immunity from a researcher at the Univ. of Minnestota.
From a basic public health standpoint you want to think that yout country will win the race against herd immunity in the sense of having a working vaccine or other therapies before the population gets to herd immunity. I still want to think we have a chance at that here in the U.S. with working antivirals in the next 6 months or so, and a vaccine ready to be distributed in the next 18 months or so.
But I think no matter what happens there will be at least several countries on the planet where herd immunity is the end of the road with Covid-19. They just don't have the public health system infrastructure to distribute antivirals or a vaccine before the virus gets to 70% of the population.
In terms of people getting reinfected and even sick again with Covid after producing antibodies, lets hope Covid is like SARS and MERS and not the other 4 coronaviruses that infect humans, all of which produce recurring illness.
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Yet you were critical of those not wearing face masks, strictly maintaining proper social distance, and those getting into other peoples space?
I think we are at a point today where each person has to take on the level of risk they feel comfortable with. I wear a mask to the grocery store, I don’t go to my gym, I won’t eat in a restaurant, and I would not go to a place with a large gathering of people. My temperature is checked by EMT’s every day when I go into work, as are the temperatures of my co-workers. I am relatively young with no major health problems. To the extent that helps.
It’s the new normal where you have to assess your risk factors. Am I concerned about the virus? I definitely am. But I’m trying to balance that against my need to do my job. My State has approximately 50-60 new cases per day right now. I did work from home through the month of April when new cases were higher.
I know the 1.3 multiplier that Jed and others put out there. If my State were to return to that I would probably go back to working from home again. Will that happen in a few weeks because of the reopening? I really don’t know. I hope not but think it’s a real possibility.I think this whole thing has become too much of a cultural war, and that it a shame. It’s just about humans vs the virus. The virus doesn’t care whether people vote Republican or Democrat. It’s just a virus.
Based on what I’ve read the only things that I believe can work against Covid in the next 12 months are remdesivir and ivermectin (although too high of a dose is required so it’s not safe at those levels), and potentially an upcoming drug cocktail by regeneron (which may be a game-changer as an antiviral). But it won’t be until late summer before we know more about that.
I think it will take about 18 months from now to get to an effective vaccine, and another year beyond that to fully distribute it to everyone. Until then we are living in a bit of a crap shoot and I do expect second and third waves of outbreak here in the U.S.
Someone reminded me yesterday that smallpox killed 300 million people in the world. What a crazy number that is. It’s always been a battle between humans and viruses. Some people think that life was only created in evolution because viruses needed a host. That’s another crazy thought.
apologies for the long post, just my two cents -
Just curious; but are you wearing a mask, staying 6' apart, and not getting into "other peoples space"? I notice you are back at work.
I am not wearing a mask, probably would feel socially awkward if I were the only one. But I do try to stay 6 ft away from people.
I think what the calculation comes down to is what the people around you have experienced in terms of people they personally know getting the virus. None of the people around me personally know someone who has had it (or they at least they say they don’t). I think that is a big factor. It’s hard to have people feel anxious about something that hasn’t hit home. I got an antibody test a couple of weeks ago (I wish I had tested positive, even though I didn’t).
Do I think there is a chance that there could be an outbreak at my office and that we are not especially immune? I definitely do. But I work in what is deemed an essential business. So we all keep on plugging away. -
This is certainly an interesting time. New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are down in most places that had major outbreaks a few weeks ago. The question is so what’s next?
Of course there is an opening back up process happening. It’s certainly happening in my State. I’m back in my office. No one is wearing masks. Most people don’t stay 6 ft apart, and someone commented that they ate out at a restaurant last night and it was crowded with no one wearing masks. While there aren’t major public gatherings people are getting into each other’s spaces again. FYI - I wasn’t in a State with a major outbreak.
There were two things that were supposed to happen (widespread testing and contact tracing) before reopening society. Some more testing is happening (wouldn’t call it widespread), and the even more importantly tracing is only happening in a few areas.
Just mark your calendars. Italy and Spain seem to be hanging in there. But how will the U.S. and UK do? Time will tell. Let’s look at the numbers in 2-3 weeks (early-mid June) to see how this risky experiment plays out. -
I really would try Ivermectin/Heparin. Both are available as creme(s) and nobody will notice your action... But you highly likely will save many lives.
I believe some of the early antiviral cocktails for HIV were on the order of 20 pills per day. Looking forward to some studies with combos of these drugs - specifically Ivermectin and Remdesivir together.
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Attached is the White House CDC coronavirus projection that was leaked to the press yesterday.
Figure 10 shows the number of daily cases increasing from 30,000 on May 7, to 200,000 on June 1. That's about 21 days, doubling every 3.2 days. In other words, the projection is that we will return to the catastrophic rate of increase we had before the state lock-down policies were put in place. This is entirely predictable. It is inevitable. Nothing has been done to prevent it. There is still not sufficient testing of present cases or antibodies. There is still no monitoring, case checking, or warning people they have been in contact with a sick person. There is still not enough medical equipment. The administration apparently has no plans fix any of these problems. They have left them all to individual states. Without these steps, nothing prevents the rate from returning to the previous level. This estimate may be a little high because New York and other states plan to implement case checking on their own. However, there are no border restrictions in the U.S., so states cannot prevent sick people from entering or leaving, and the vast majority of the U.S. population in places like Georgia will not be tested or monitored.
It appears that in the U.S. we are about to go from Social Distancing to Social Distancing Lite. So we are down to basic social distancing (based on my observations 20-30% of people don't do any of that at all) and prohibiting large gatherings (movie theaters, concerts, sports etc). Other activities like flying, or eating in restaurants, will be things that most people will still avoid by choice.
There are the two sides to this argument, one being that this is a bad idea, and the other that we can tolerate Social Distancing Lite and we should give it a shot to see what happens over the next couple of months. I think this latter argument will likely win the day over the next 30 days. So Governors are going to open up in phases and people are going to go out again, and we are going to see what happens.
I am just hoping that we all mark the date and time that this experiment starts. So when we get to mid-June we can look back over these 6 weeks to see what the affect of Social Distancing Lite was. It's a big science experiment with a good deal of risk attached to it.
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Proof that people close to the president are in a deep-state war. More HCQ coverage.
https://www.palmerfoundation.c…s-as-it-happens-timeline/
President Trump is flooded with information. If you think he just gets up an rants about an unproven drug.
I think he's a loudmouth and attention seeking. But there is a real positive force pushing him to fight the deep state.
Most Americans don't get the war that's in happening in their own country.
The war in our country is between Fox News and CNN/MSNBC. Half the country watches one network and the other half watches one of the other two. Our country is split in two tribes. The divide is so deep that literally everything runs through this lens. There was a time when it wasn’t this way. But it was a long time ago.
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So - I just checked the worldometer stats again and it still looks like we are seeing the same steady number of daily deaths in the UK and US with no reduction in active cases. So this is the 'control' case with no effective antiviral treatment and all social distancing and quarantine measures is doing is slightly reducing the number of cases, so the same high rate of new deaths will probably carry on for another week. The rest of Europe stats if they are combined show a clear reduction in active cases and new daily deaths and should reduce even further over the next week in comparison. Which is the 'test' case of actually effectively using antivirals to fight this pandemic. When is the UK going to start using them and the US start using them effectively?
Well I think the effective use of antivirals plays out more in the number of hospitalizations and deaths than active cases. Maybe that’s not the way to look at it - not sure. I imagine the Governments of both the U.S. and UK would say that the reason daily new cases aren’t decreasing is because more people are being tested. In fact members of both the Trump and Johnson Administrations have said just that.
There is anecdotal reporting in both countries say that the number of new patients being admitted into the hospital is down, but is that true? Not sure.
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this is a good read on the state of vaccine development. Not sure why it was written as an opinion piece. It’s pretty straightforward:
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Looking at the numbers I’m thinking about what kind of progress has been made here in the U.S. over the past couple of weeks. There is more testing occurring, and anecdotally we hear that hospitalizations are down. But on the face of it, today we had over 30k new cases, and over 2k people died. Based on those numbers we are essentially in the same place.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/And this article states that China, Spain and Germany are fighting off second waves and spikes in local areas. So they are not out of the woods yet.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/7…any-japan-china-lockdown/South Korea is one Country that’s knocking it out of the park. They need to give the rest of the world a tutorial on exactly what they are doing, step by step. And every Country needs to replicate it, even if it as great costs. Fortunately the South Koreans are attempting to write an instruction manual. They just published a study that’s now on the CDC website below about how they contained a single Covid outbreak at one office building in Seoul. It’s an intense process that they undertake to do it. But every Country should work on replicating what they have done because it works.
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Is there a reason I have missed at he jump in US deaths today?
2,470 today, 1,384 yesterday.
Seems like a substantial jump.
What is going on?
The increase is likely due to the high number of new cases about 2-3 weeks ago. Those days saw well over 30k new cases per day. So people who showed symptoms then are still passing away in large numbers.
Even though we have seen new cases dip here in the U.S. below 30k new cases per day, we still saw 25.4k new cases today. That’s still way too high to open back up for business (I know you disagree Shane). But we need 2-3 million people tested per week, and we need new cases below 10k per day for effective contact tracing. Anything less than that and the cases will just go back to where they were, and we will have lost all of the benefits that social distancing has brought us up to this point.If people need to open back up for business and there is no way to stop it, then please tell everyone to wear a mask. Not just for themselves, but also because they care about those around them.
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A very hopeful story below about scientists at Oxford believing that they are on a path to a potential vaccine. One of the scientists thinks they might even have something by the end of the year. As soon as a vaccine is tested and shown to be safe and effective it will then be one of the greatest undertakings in human history to try to manufacture and distribute billions of doses of it. It will be like nothing we have ever seen before.
A person I know who has knowledge about vaccines said one way to do it would be to take over beer producing plants around the world. They apparently have the types of containers that could make large volumes of vaccine. -
This immunity stuff is complicated..it needs close reading,,
The article says the 10 of the 175 patients that recovered had no detectable antibodies..
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Notably, there were
ten recovered patients whose NAb titers were very low, under the detectable level of
this study (ID50: <40), suggesting that other immune responses, including T cells or
4 cytokines, may contribute to the recovery of these patients. Whether these patients were
at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies.This virus is challenging common assumptions about immunity..such as that it is due to B cell antibodies..
Hopefully they are immune... but how much would you need to pay these 10 patients to check that..?
This article is food for thought about the length of immunity that people may receive after having Covid. Warning, you may not feel better after reading it. I sure didn’t.
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CFR?
OK perhaps there are lot of people out there not counted as cases and some dead not counted as deaths but....
just raw numbers 988,928 US cases, 55,461 deaths (with 15000+ in serious condition)
gives 5.6% CFR. I don't here anyone talking about that.
If there are 50 uncounted per documented cases, that is one thing but if it is only 5 uncounted it is another.
I think the numbers (especially early on) are probably difficult to pin down. Below is an article on something I’ve been curious about, which is how many people died in February/March vs an average year. This article says over 15k excess deaths occurred during that time. It appears that there were likely many people who passed away from the virus but were simply never tested for it.