Posts by JulianBianchi

    JedRothwell again and again, you base your numbers on the RT-PCR and serological tests whereas it is now proven that the latter miss most cases exposed to the virus. Two independent studies (wonderful studies by the way) both show that the number of people who are exposed to the virus and do not develop any specific anti-SARS-COV-2 antibodies are about 4 times more than those who do:

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1

    And note this number is not about the number of undetected cases that you mention because no RT-PCR or serological test was carried out, it is just that these tests miss most cases because they cannot capture the complexity of how the human body stops the virus. Furthermore, there are still other means to stop the virus than those assessed in these two studies and direct neutralization tests carried out in my lab suggest that this factor of 4-5 may actually be underestimated. So no: Korea and China don't know how many cases they missed. Nobody knows exactly. What is known is that the official RT-PCR and serological numbers grossly underestimate the percentage of people exposed to the virus. Something I already alluded to in March but without any strong evidence at that time.


    Wyttenbach and stefan are right on this one: the exposure and immunity are significantly higher than what is suggested by the numbers that you provided. Which is good news from a public health perspective.

    THHuxleynew your eyes see what they want to see. The average would be 0.52%, not 0.66% as you state. Your eyes missed a zero in the first value of 0.0005.


    Navid is right in the fact that the "overall" value of 0.004 doesn't properly match the age distribution. Their calculation also proves that the age distribution of symptomatic cases does not match the age distribution of the whole population.

    Number of deaths from Jan 1st to today May 15 worldwide, according to Worldmeter, with WHO, Unicef, CDC as sources:

    - total deaths: 21'789'632

    - communicable diseases: 4'809'252

    - coronavirus: 303'407 (1.3 % of total, 6.3% of communicable)

    - seasonal flu: 180'350

    - HIV/AIDS: 622'781

    - cancer: 3'042'645

    - malaria: 363'389

    - deaths of children under 5y: 2'815'940

    - deaths caused by smoking: 1'852'002

    - deaths caused by alcohol: 926'589

    - suicides: 397'277

    - road traffic: 500'104


    If 300k is a high toll and requires a full shutdown, following this logic, should we ban cigarettes, alcohol, close all the roads and...?

    It is a very good point that ultra-dense hydrogen can't have lower energy state than ground state hydrogen, otherwise it would become the new ground state.

    However: if a metastable state catalyzes nuclear reactions (e.g. fusion), then the energy comes from the nucleus and not from the electron arrangement.

    The evidence that Dark Matter is made of hydrogen at its ground state has increased these last 2 years from so-called 21-centimeter cosmology, see here for example:

    https://www.intechopen.com/onl…in-its-lower-ground-state


    Interestingly, UDH as main component of DM does still better fulfill current observational constraints on DM, especially the one on cosmic dawn cosmic microwave background (CMB) decoupling, see e.g. this excellent study

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06698v1

    It is a very good point that ultra-dense hydrogen can't have lower energy state than ground state hydrogen, otherwise it would become the new ground state.

    However: if a metastable state catalyzes nuclear reactions (e.g. fusion), then the energy comes from the nucleus and not from the electron arrangement.

    The evidence that Dark Matter is made of hydrogen at its ground state has increased these last 2 years from so-called 21-centimeter cosmology, see here for example:

    https://www.intechopen.com/onl…in-its-lower-ground-state


    Interestingly, UDH as main component of DM does still better fulfill current observational constraints on DM, especially the one on cosmic dawn cosmic microwave background (CMB) decoupling, see e.g. this excellent study

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06698v1

    In a nutshell, rather than using a styrene catalyst such as a K doped iron oxide with excited atomic H/D created at its surface somewhat indirectly, Lenr-Cars is using a more direct way through the desorption of atomic H/D from the bulk of a metal or metal oxide into a low pressure cavity. The desorption energy is increased either by a rapid increase of temperature in a dry cell or by electrolytic means in a wet cell. The latter step is required because the natural desorption of H/D from all metal hydrides/deuterides is never energetic enough to lead to excited enough atoms of H/D to form Rydberg matter. This method makes the link between most LENR/CF work (F&P, Storms, Mizuno, etc ...) and the seminal work of Holmlid.

    If there were no antibodies, the patient would be dead. He or she would not have recovered. The body can only rid itself of a virus with an antibody response.

    Nonsense. Have you ever heard of the innate immune system that is an antigen-independent defense mechanism with no immunological memory? Of Pattern Recognition Receptors (PPRs) to detect and respond rapidly to a virus infection (in minutes not days)?


    In the case of coronaviruses, type 1 interferons provide an early control of viral replication with many cells (macrophage, natural killers, dendritic cells, etc...) eradicating the virus without the need of an antigen-specific response.


    In summary, no the body doesn't necessarily need to develop specific anti-SARS-COV-2 antibodies to get rid of a new virus. Many do not. Actually more and more evidence suggest that most asymptomatic people did not though the exact proportion remains unknown because of the lack of widespread testing.

    No. That's completely wrong. Deaths in children are comparatively rare but they are especially tragic and they most emphatically do occur. And infected children bring the virus back home to infect parents and grandparents.

    You seem to be very sure of you. Please provide a single study that shows that the chain of infection between children and adults, and not the other way around, is important. After I will do the opposite and provide multiple articles that show that it is NOT the case.

    Quote

    Sweden is nuts and the rising curve of cases proves it.

    Most deaths in Sweden happened in care homes from adult to adult transmission. Mark U is right that transmission from children to adults is limited. And look at Taiwan: best management of Covid-19 of all countries with very low level of cases and deaths with, guess what, all schools that remained open even during the peak of the pandemic.

    We have found that some exposed to the virus do not develop any antibodies. A publication is on the way. These persons are asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic. Many children in this group. Probably the innate immune system that provides a natural barrier against the virus. We don't know how many though. And don't know yet how to estimate this number, this is complex. Any idea? What is sure is that this group has a non-negligible size and that in turn the IFR is lower than most believe.


    Should Zinc Be Added To Treatment Protocols For Covid-19 Patients?


    220 mg Zinc adjunct with HCQ protocol giving good results

    We have just finished the analysis of a large panel of minerals in patients with COVID-19 and found that the serum levels of Zn were crazy low. Not only all patients were deficient but also the levels were up to several times less than the levels measured in a control group. Levels of Fe, Se and Cu were also found to be different. All other minerals (Na, K, Ca, Mg, I...) had similar levels in both groups.


    There is plenty of things that we still do not understand with this virus.

    This has been a debate here in Italy, mostly out of envy for the low mortality in Germany where we all thought initially that Germany was covering up deaths or discounting comorbidities. No way. Germany simply used well its time advantage and started testing intensively, roughly at the same rate as Italy and the same time as Italy (both have a 1.5% population tested now) but the difference is that it was late for us and early for them. They could identify and isolate people positive without symptoms, focusing at first on people who had traveled to China and Northern Italy, and traced their contacts to propagate the testing.

    It is more complicated than that. Here in Switzerland we are testing at a higher frequency than Germany, we started high frequency testing in late January already, in all regions of Switzerland, our tracing system involved more trained people per capita than e.g. South Korea, and see what happened, the wave that came at the end of February was too big to be contained by just testing and tracing, and interestingly enough, the Italian speaking region of Switzerland is now showing death statistics similar to the North of Italy, the German speaking region of Switzerland similar to Germany and the French speaking similar to France. All of this with the same testing and healthcare system. This makes me think that the cultural aspects should not be underestimated, in particular the structure of the social relations such as how the elderly is mixing with the active population.

    Sure we already know. The Chinese CDC is discharging from confinement/quarantine all subjects who tested positive to immunoglobulin IgG, this from February already. With success.

    Interestingly enough, the membrane protein ACE2, known as the main entry point of SARS-COV-2, is a Zn metalloprotein that acts as a ionophore of Zn itself, with quercetin and luteolin shown to bind to the exact same location on ACE2 as the spike protein of SARS-COV-2, with a better binding affinity than e.g. chloroquine. These flavonoids have also a much better safety profile than chloroquine, with a potentially harmful dose as much as 3-4 orders of magnitude higher than the assumed effective dose. I personally take a supplement of quercetin and luteolin since the beginning of February.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news…eaningless-123550415.html

    "Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is an ‘Almost Meaningless’ Metric …….“The numbers are almost meaningless,” says Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University......What should we be watching instead? One possibility is hospitalizations.....They argue that rate of increase in hospitalizations could reflect the growth of the disease without being distorted by changes in the testing rate......Measuring death rates can eventually track the speed with which Covid-19 is spreading — as deaths represent a fraction of cases. But there’s a lag of some three weeks between infection and death......Random sampling would help too"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opin…almost-meaningless-metric

    Indeed. Almost meaningless. "Confirmed Coronavirus cases" is more a metric of the testing frequency than anything else. A better metric (but still not necessarily good) is the number of deaths in a village or region in comparison with the previous years. For example in the north of Italy, a village has already had 158 deaths from Jan 1st 2020 while the average of the previous years at the same time of the year is 35, with small year-to-year variations around that average. Therefore we can safely conclude that about 120 deaths can be attributed directly or indirectly to the pandemic in that village. (Not saying that the official number of deaths caused by COVID-19 was only 31 for that village...). The takeaway message is that all official stats should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Switzerlands starts a large patient antibody test (blood sample) today. Let's hope it does work.

    Some don't but some do, that's good news. At my lab in Geneva we already tested many patients using various antibodies assays. Rapid tests are crap but some ELISA are good.


    The prevalence remains low. Most surprising is that the immune system is reacting fast with IgG already elevated only a few days after symptoms onset. Which is also good news.

    Note the numbers used in the article are bogus, at least for Switzerland, where the number shown is closer to the number of tests per day, not to the total number of tests carried until now, which is 50-100 times higher, even at the date the article was published. Here in Switzerland we do about 2000 tests a day, for a population of 8-9 mios. Also we started testing relatively early thanks to the rapid availability of the Roche RT-PCR test.


    This high number of tests may look impressive at first sight, probably the world highest per resident, however since last Friday the number of people with symptoms exceed by far our capacity not to test but to collect samples. The challenge is not about the analytical capacity (as in other countries) but about the collection capacity because collection by qualified personnel takes time with important safety precautions, not saying some pressure on the availability of nasal swabs. The reason why I'm now recommending the switch to at home self blood tests, this at least to know when people under quarantine should be discharged. China is again doing right with now using the IgG and IgM antibodies test as the main tool to discharge patients regardless if they tested positive or not to the RT-PCR test.


    This does not change though the overall message of the article that yes the mortality rate numbers do depend on the testing strategy and that current estimate by WHO at 3.4% is most likely too high given the high number of asymptomatic subjects.

    Many close relations positive around me. Nevertheless no chloroquine here. Because of its bad safety profile. But some quercetin, luteolin, melatonin and Vit C. And most importantly I test myself.