Posts by Max Nozin

Quote from Shane D.

So far this season, between 12,000 and 30,000 US citizens have died from the flu. 2 winters ago, 80,000 died. That is nothing to sneeze at. Were the media so inclined, they could turn those numbers into a frenzy, and make it a crisis. Yes, there are differences between influenza, and COVID19, but there are similarities also. Enough similarities I would think, that it is reasonable for any normal, red blooded, silly wabbit, to ask why they are reported on so differently?

Sure, you can point out the corona mortality rates are higher, maybe a little bit more contagious, and the "possibility" it would, if we do not take all these economy killing measures, kill off half the planet...but if you do, does that not make you heartless for downplaying the dangers of the flu? I think so. It is discriminatory to treat one killer disease, differently than the other.

The reason why we all freaked out was that mortality still is unknown and can be x20 of flu. The infection rate is unknown and could be higher than flu.

Quote from Dr Richard

No miracle but C21 medical science. Of course it can all be refined to be more effective but at some point you have to just get on with it and save as many lives as possible. You never questioned why even in China, African nationals never caught the coronavirus?

because of the same reason Martians haven't. 21 centuries of pure speculations

Quote from Shane D.

Well, tell me what do you think the consequences of shutting down the developed worlds economies, as we are in the process of doing, will be, as compared to fighting COVID19, as we fight the flu? Which exacts the most damage, which the least? Which will cause more hardships, more deaths, and misery?

Obviously, if you feel this lock-down will be the less harmful than the world recession it will cause, you will think a politician urging people to "get out to restaurants" should be run out of office. If not, then someone advocating normalcy, getting about ones business, while taking safety precautions, than that politician will be viewed as a leader with vision...and a lot of balls!

if humans were acting based on pure economical benefit considerations we would be living in Reich right now. I am looking at loosing my job but still thing that measures to isolate are a right way to do even though myself I am not in a risk group.

Quote from zorud

This is quite a good site to get an overview...unfortunately very dynamic numbers frequently updated based on feedback from local sources...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis…740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I am comparing to this https://www.statista.com/chart/21099/coronavirus-in-italy/ (based on John Hopkins)

According to this one, yesterday was a drop. Two days consecutive drop can set a trend. But the dashboard says 18K new confirmed yesterday vs 3k in Hopkins data. Total is the same.

Indexes are up 2.5% so far https://www.rainews.it/dl/rain…53-8e2f-70d7489d4ce9.html has kids singing Toto.

what is the total # new cases in Italy for today?

Shane D. I have always been against overreacting but the behaviors of politicians on both sides to of the pond in conservatives strongholds is astonishing. What do you think of a politician calling to get out to restaurants in a mids of what we already experiencing first hand as a worst pandemic in decade?

Quote from Dr Richard

Max Nozin How does our Russian expert account for the in vitro data showing a direct action of chloroquine blocking coronavirus at uM concentrations? It does have an immunosuppressive action, hence it's use for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus but this is not it's sole action.

There are few explanations. One he is not up-to-date on recent research. Second he does not consider wip research as a proof.

Should I stock up on Valeum?

I can not stand watching mongering of pangolins for a dose of keratin also found in fingernails. So much to do the n education front.

All sports leagues, city gyms and pools are closing on Monday in Ottawa

Here in Ottawa we had a walk in assessment centre open. 300 showed up on the first day. 150 something were denied the test right away. Around 250 were tested. No word on the result. On that day we got 2 new travel related cases but they won't say whether it was the result of testing.

The testing itself destroyed my theory about the virus already been dormant in the wide population.

btw if you consider taking malaria drug as a precaution, check with your doctor first. Russian expert saying that it is effective in lowering body's autoimmune response and not targeting the virus. So it is useless unless you are unable critical condition.

Quote from JedRothwell

The trend in the U.S. continues. The exponent is 1.3, unchanged since March 2.

Date	Total cases	Exponent	New Cases	Predicted
12	1697	1.30	396
13	2247	1.32	550
14	2943	1.31	696	2921

At this rate, by March 31 it will be:

31

254582

1.30

58750

That is, ~255,000 cases, ~59,000 new cases per day.

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Exponent or multiplier?

Quote from oldguy

but it also increases the infection rate proportionally. The number of dead remains the same.

Mortality rate = # dead/# infected no?

Quote from oldguy

I do not understand the people that think that identifying more active cases does anything to change the total death numbers. … so there is a smaller percentage of deaths per cases, but more cases. The number of dead remains the same.

it reduces mortality rate which is currently 10-20 times of that of a flu

Quote from LeBob

Wasn't stating facts lol just hypothetical realistic causations. Quite far fetched ones at that.

I didn't realize you are keen on 'hypothetical realidsm' - not my forte

RobertBryant they had an incremental advance in recent months. At some point reactor exploded. Those a re the guys who relentlessly trying for years now.

They still could not replicate what was claimed thought. I.e. quite hissing discharge in SSM converting up to 40 percent of water into powder while generating kilowatts of excess electricity.

JedRothwell btw did stats account to the fact that testing also grows exponentially?

JedRothwell everyone's worst case prediction is 70-80 percent of population exposed. The question nobody knows is how many are asymptomatic. This can drive mortality rate significantly down. You would say that blanket tests found noting I would argue how Canada's PM wife contracted virus on short UK visit.

Quote from JedRothwell

It means the natural trend with the same infection rate is continuing. Nothing has slowed it. The shape of epidemics is well known. You don't need to be an expert; just read the New York Times or any other mass media. Look at the graphs from the Times I uploaded today.

Like many natural processes it is Gaussian.