Shanahan has lithium in his bucket
Who doesn't these days? I usually have some in my pocket every time I leave the house!
Shanahan has lithium in his bucket
Who doesn't these days? I usually have some in my pocket every time I leave the house!
He will say this again any time. Ask him!
OK. Hey Shanahan! Did you say and do you think an unattended bucket with no significant "anomalous" heat source inside can evaporate overnight in a deserted indoor laboratory? If so, does it require a large pack of very thirsty escaped rats who are excellent swimmers (for example, having passed the YMCA swimming pool safety certification?) And the absence of the local cat?
Actually we don't "know" each other at all, having never met and having never had a conversation. Posting responses on the internet doesn't allow you to "know" someone in most cases. "Predatory ferocity?" That's hilarious. I worked hard to inspire feelings in you? Seriously? All I've tried to do is to disabuse people of the belief that Defkalion and Rossi really had or have the solution to proving and using LENR. If I am tenacious, it's because I hate harmful and wasteful energy scams, especially when they become so obvious. As with some other skeptics, my interest is mainly in how it is possible that otherwise intelligent, even very bright people, can still believe the con men who prey on them.
I am sure you're a well meaning individual, Axil. And you needn't worry about my getting through your defenses, For the most part, I do not have the faintest idea what you are writing about and I am only rarely addressing comments to you and then usually when you express belief in something I find obviously and transparently phony.
Anyway, best wishes.
Complete, total, abject nonsense.
Well, there are errors in all hot cat reports-- errors of methodology as described mainly by Thomas Clarke who was hounded and derided for the critique. Also reports by Pomp et. al. , TTH, and many others which I have cited ad nauseam before.
The most charitable view of Rossi if it were based on just the Levi report would be that his work is indeterminate. There is not enough information in the report to define accurately the input and output conditions and measurement methods and to rule out errors. But the issue isn't whether there is an obvious error in the paper. That doesn't tell you whether or not the paper is honest. And Rossi's background strongly suggests that he isn't. And Levi would not have to be a party to Rossi's duplicity-- he could simply have been fooled. Like IH was fooled ... for a while anyway. All the materials and methods in Levi's paper which Jed is so fond of citing, were developed initially by Penon, working directly with Rossi. I gave a cite for this before so I won't dig it up again.
Rossi's veracity doesn't hang on the internal consistency of one paper but on the overall picture. And even if the paper did not have obvious errors, it would not mean that the work was properly performed, the results accurately and honestly recorded, and the conclusions were valid. That is where proper "indipendent" replication comes in and when IH tried it, we know how THAT went.
There may not be papers proving errors with McKubre and Miles but that could be because nobody in a position to replicate the work was impressed enough to bother. I strongly suspect this to be the case.
I think we've been through all this before. If a reaction is highly thermogenic, then it should be possible by judicious use of insulation and controlled, forced cooling, to use the heat produced by the reaction to maintain the reaction -- without risking runaway. If someone could make a reactor which can operate in what Rossi quaintly calls "self-sustaining" mode, it would go a long away towards convincing critics. And I am not speaking of Jed's claims. I think most everyone else knows what I mean. It's using small amounts of fuel to run a reactor and keep it hot essentially indefinitely. With only enough input power to operate control devices. And a powerful output. Hopefully Mizuno will be able to do that with his kiloWatt units with the cutsey names. Mizuno's experiment seems to achieve a Pout/Pin of about 2. That should be plenty of excess heat to allow shutting off and leaving off the externally powered heater.
As is patently obvious and was disregarded in evaluation of Rossi's early claims, heat is heat -- whether it comes from a heater or from a reaction.
Now that the Rossi trial is over, the trolls can wet their beaks on the legal travails of new innocents. I expect that there will be many such opportunities to feed the trolls into a rotund ecstasy. But like any flock of vultures, their hunger is insatiable, the hunt goes on incessantly.
The Rossi trial isn't "over." There WAS NO ROSSI TRIAL. There was an OUT OF COURT settlement. No facts were tried. No judge or jury reached a verdict. The rest of what you said doesn't make sense to me. The question was "is there someplace we can read more about people suing Defkalion". You quoted it but what you wrote doesn't not address that issue.
No, I do not. This is projection on your part. Or cognitive dissonance. I resemble Martin Fleischmann in that I am a painfully conventional person. I do insist that it is impossible for a 10-L bucket of water to evaporate in room temperature conditions overnight, but that is common sense. Anyone with an aquarium will know that. Anyone who puts out a bucket can confirm it. Frankly for you or anyone else here to question that is extreme fanaticism. In any other context people would say you are as crazy as a flat-earth society member.
WHat you actually do is to nitpick and misquote what your critics say instead of trying to understand them. You end up chasing straw men like the bucket evaporating overnight anecdote.
There is no earthly reason why the scientific establishment would not want a new, dramatically better, cheaper and cleaner power source. And even if it did, that would not influence maverick moguls like Bezos and Musk who already chase after far wilder and crazier idea than LENR with millions and billions of dollars. There has to be another reason why LENR research is not everywhere. And that is probably that the results are mostly disappointing.
Why did Defkalion fold? Why did Rossi have to sue to get paid and then why did he give up without a cent? Why is Swartz not marketing his NANOR system any more? Where are Miley's claimed hundred watt benchtop power plants? How is Zawotny doing with his semi-conductor chips to select promising LENR reactions? Why did NI drop support for Celani? Why is Elforsk no longer writing about LENR? Why can't Hydrofusion deliver reactors? Why can't MFMP duplicate Parkhamov? Celani? ANYONE? Do I really need to go on? I didn't make up all the promises those people made over the past four to six years. And yet, here we are and NOTHING works to provide high power LENR consistently.
From you, I would more expect a bullet-doux.
So, if I understand you right, Alan, after all the evidence presented for the pretrial depositions in Rossi vs IH vs Rossi, etc. etc., you STILL believe that Rossi has a working energy producing device or even that there is an appreciable chance that he does?
Defkalion's other customers are suing them.
Is there some place we can read more about this?
Hey Jed, from the above, it certainly seems as if serious scientific research into the possibility of nuclear fusion using isotopes of hydrogen and various metals -- that this research is alive and well. Let's hope it results in some practical applications though, if I read the abstract right, and it's way out of my field, the effect detected is very small. Thanks, Ahlfors, for sharing this.
Andrea Rossi is not doing cold fusion, as far as I can tell. And I can tell a lot more than you can.
Perhaps so but your ability to discern Rossi's duplicity and lies is comparatively recently acquired. Not too long ago, you were arguing that some of Rossi's experiments were proven on "first principles." And you were just as unpleasant and insulting to Rossi critics then as you are to critics of Mizuno etc. today. And you still argue that there is "nothing wrong" with a hot cat test done by Levi using equipment and methods selected and developed by Rossi and Penon. So I am not convinced you can evaluate Rossi and his work in realistic fashion at all, even today.
I will stick my neck out and forecast there is a better than 50% chance Rossi will come up with a believable demonstration in October.
Believable for whom? The "usual suspects?"
Seriously, how hard is it to win a debate with someone who never reads anything, who makes quantitative mistakes by a factor of 800, and who seriously believes a bucket of water will evaporate in a week? Has this person never seen an aquarium? If I cannot run rings around M.Y. I might as well give up, stop promoting cold fusion, and stop trying to convince anyone of anything.
I hope that diatribe makes you feel better about not being able to come up with a credible experiment that offers 100W of power, long duration, and no power input ALL AT ONCE. Of course, I never said anything about how long it takes a bucket of water to evaporate. All I said was that Shanahan did not claim it happens in a day. Of course I read, but not the reams of disorganized and questionable data you offer as evidence. I don't know about winning debates but you're the one who attended seriously to both Defkalion and Rossi, way beyond the point where it obvious to most serious observers that they were frauds. Oh well... if it makes you feel better to believe that I claimed a bucket of water evaporates in a week and that I never read anything, have at it.
OK, sure. Do it again in properly supervised laboratory circumstances. By someone other than Mizuno. Can't do that, can you? It's much easier to keep repeating and justifying the anecdote with people like me, dumb enough to take the silly bait.
It is a terrible shame that Mizuno did not call in a dozen other scientists to see and feel
the hot cell. I would have set up a 24-hour vigil with graduate students and video cameras to
observe the cell and measure the evaporated water carefully. This is one of history’s
heartbreaking lost opportunities. News of this event, properly documented and attested to by
many people, might have convinced thousands of scientists worldwide that cold fusion is real.
That's YOUR writing, Jed So what stopped Mizuno? What stops anyone from doing this again? Didn't IH attempt some sort of Mizuno replication? Did they not fail even with Mizuno's help? Are you seriously suggesting that the anecdote PROVES something?
I suspect more effort on Mizuno's never repeated evaporating bucket is wasted AND I suppose Shanahan is more than capable to defend himself but looking back, there are some quotes worth repeating because they do not suggest that Shanahan claimed that a bucket of water could evaporate overnight.
As I recall doing the calculations about 15 years ago now, I used a much lower humidity because it was winter and as I recall there was supposedly snow on the ground. Likewise, one point I made back there was the lack of knowledge of ventilation. What Jed fails to mention is that the bucket was put in a hood in an abandoned lab. Even without the holes in the windows, what do you think the air flow over the bucket would be in a hood, even with no blower fan to suck air in? Your assumptions above are made to minimize the effect so you can claim "Aha! It must have been cold fusion!" I did the opposite, I investigated what it might take to conclude "It was just evaporation." To further complicate the issue, we really have no idea what temp the bucket was at. The reason Mizuno trotted across campus was that he thought the cell was going into thermal runaway. I always suspected thermocouple problems. I'm not even sure Mizuno was in Sapporo at the time? This is the problem with anecdotal stories, you never have any _confirmed_ information to base interpretations upon.
BTW, Jed likes to claim that I ignored the issues he brings up. I did not. Jed just likes to make stuff up so that he can paint his 'crackpot' label on m
Yeah, you failed to grasp the limitations back of spf. That's when, instead of trying to batter down your illogic, I just suggested Mizuno hadn't accounted for the mice drinking from the bucket. You of course then calculated how much that might be and decided that the idea wouldn't work. I didn't have the heart then to remind you of the cats that chased the mice, and of the rats, and the dogs chasing the cats (very thirsty after all that running), and the dog catchers chasing the dogs. And then there's the birds coming in through the holes in the windows that you mentioned. And the extra cats you have to add in that were chasing the birds, and the extra dogs, etc. etc.
For the rest of you, a synopsis. Mizuno is a Japanese prof who did a CF experiment and decided mid-stream it might blow up. So he put it in a bucket of water and carried it across the campus to an abandoned building, where he put it in an abandoned lab hood. he then periodically checked on it and found the water was disappearing. I believe he also measured an elevated temperature for some time on it with the internal TC. He wrote about this in a book.
When this was initially posted to sci.physics.fusion, I looked up water evaporation from swimming pools and got the equations to preduict water loss. It involves time, temperature, humidity, wind, etc. My scribbling around with the equations suggested
the water loss noted might well be to evaporation, and I posted that. Jed rejected the idea without thought. So I then made my silly suggestion about the mice and was amazed to see Jed try to calculate that out. I was really ROFL.
Morale of the story: Anecdotes aren't science.
So basically, a combination of poopooing an anecdote and joking at Jed's expense. Jed claimed Shanahan said a bucket of water could evaporate overnight. But he did not write what Jed claimed and what he wrote is not crackpot material. I am tiring of this topic. I just cited the above in the interest of clarity and to highlight the misquoting.
OK-- here is an example of an item I copied to put into a new post -- the indents and bullets are not in the original which is from here: Debate: Does LENR needs a good theory, or good lab-rat
BTW, Jed likes to claim that I ignored the issues he brings up. I did not. Jed just likes to make stuff up so that he can paint his 'crackpot' label on me.
Mills has learned a thing or two from the hot fusion industry. They are always "20 years from market", so Mills lopped off a 0 from that and is always 2 years from market. Hey, whatever works.
What TTH said. The whole light generation/photovoltaic converter idea is idiotic when a simple heater using little or no fuel would generate an incalculable amount of income. Trillions. That has always been the "tell" in various schemes of free energy scams -- they act as if they don't know how simple it would be to monitize them. Rossi is the poster child for this observation.
The difference between Mills and the hot fusion "industry" is that the hot fusion advocates report their progress accurately, in the open and with lots of peer reviewed papers in reputable publications. Mills's stuff is vague and makes no sense. The very idea that one would design a high energy reaction so that the way to extract the energy involved a bright light and photocells is absurd. For many reasons, the hydrino theory is absurd. Mills lessons recently probably came mostly from the likes of Rossi. I am sure Rossi shook Mills up by demonstrating how easy it is to fleece the rich with very dumb scams. There is no need to write 600 page books and involve dozens of scientists. All you need is a silly kludge and a few gullible low level professors.
If Mills is scamming, and he doesn't give enough info so anyone can prove it either way, he is going about it the hard way.
There have been many refutations of the hydrino theory-- I know little about it -- one brief version is found here: https://physics.stackexchange.…been-replicated-elsewhere
If it were indeed possible to get energy out of a ground state atom, then by definition, that atom would not be in the ground state. In other words, claiming that you can get energy out of ground state atoms is, in fact, a claim that what look like ordinary hydrogen atoms at rest are actually atoms in some kind of meta-stable excited state. What are the odds that after 13 billion years, ALL of the hydrogen in the universe is still in this 'false' ground state? Surely there would be enough of the 'true' ground state material floating around that someone would already have noticed it? There would have to be some obvious clues.
When I try to [COPY] and paste into a post, the software inserts a bunch of gratuitous <li> and </li> tags causing unwanted indents and bullets in the quote. I have to remove them with the HTML option. What gives with that? And no, I don't use the built in QUOTE option because I am uncertain about what exactly it does. I prefer to COPY, PASTE and the use QUOTE from the command bar. That's when I get said <li> tags. <ul> also if memory serves. Why does the editor think a COPY/PASTE operation means I am trying to write a table? With bullets? Thanks. Oh... and it's not entirely reproducible. It's intermittent.
We still do not know how a bicycle works, but we have been building them for 200 years.
NONSENSE! What in the world do you think is mysterious about how bicycles "work"?
That is not to say his moving the product launch date back 2 years is not disappointing, because it is.
And it does rightfully raise suspicions, especially in light of his 26 year history of broken promises.
Uhhun. He's been moving back 2 years every two years for 26 years, as you say. And why are we still even listening to him?
To admin: is there some string to discuss the forum software itself? The editor is doing all sorts of things I did not ask it to do. And it is a PITA to correct it in HTML.
Your link leads to this:
- OK, so I looked this over. Nothing in it to contradict anything important in my description. Lots of details that were posted to spf are not included, like the posts describing the broken windows and the use of a lab hood in an abandoned building...
But the key point is that Jed writes: "A bucket left by itself for 10 days in a university laboratory will not lose any measurable level of water to evaporation. "
That is nothing but an assumption based on wishful thinking. Anything other that that occurring invalidates the use of water loss as a useful measure. Of course, that was the point of my first post on this topic on spf. My examination of evaporation rate equations put out by DOE for swimming pools led me to believe that it might be possible if the ventilation and humidity characteristics were correct. As an anecdotal story, we don't have those numbers, so I choose to find the event unconvincing. It's an anecdote, so you can choose to believe what you like about it.
And I also assume a good chance of thermocouple problems as well, even though we were assured that it had been checked. Jed's writeup simply confirms that Mizuno confirmed a reading with another meter, but not that he used an independent measure. If the TC was malfunctioning, the second meter would still produce an erroneous reading, since a malfunctioning TC wouldn't care what meter was used to read it. Again we have insufficient information to truly make a decision.
See anything in here which says a bucket will evaporate OVERNIGHT? What am I missing here? He is saying a bucket of water left ten days will evaporate to some degree, the amount determined by conditions and could be quite a lot. What do you see?
Currently, fusion reactions are carried out in a device known as a tokamak
Major steps forward in this direction were taken recently here and in the U.K. In the U.S., researchers increased the efficiency of the process by adding a third element – in this case, helium-3 ions. The research was published last summer in Nature Physics
Meanwhile, in the U.K., a private company known as Tokamak Energy built a machine with a smaller donut hole, which in 2015 sustained a plasma reaction for a record-breaking 29 hours. Their latest model, the ST40
There is still a long road ahead and many problems to be solved before sustainable nuclear fusion becomes economically feasible – but recent breakthroughs are promising to break Big Oil’s stranglehold over the planet within our lifetimes.
and ... https://www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/
(sorry for the weird fonts and links-- this editor is unpredictable and inconsistent and I have no time to screw with the HTML or strip the original)
The key word in Jed's quote is OVERNIGHT. Nobody claimed that the bucket would go dry overnight. That this was claimed is Jed's fantasy. Jed attends to often to such misquotes of people and it also extends to misunderstanding of people's purpose, diligence, and intentions. This habit does not improve his credibility in other matters about LENR. In fact, a bucket left for 10 days in a room may, under many conditions, lose appreciable contents to evaporation but it will probably not go dry. Unless, as Shanahan pointed out, there is a source of heat in it. Not necessarily LENR heat. More likely, chemical heat and stored heat.
As always you misquoted. And your response is tangential to the question I asked.
I want to know where Shanahan says that a bucket of water can evaporate completely overnight without anomalous causes. WHERE DOES HE WRITE THAT? Not a link to a discussion -- a specific quote and the link to that specific quote. If you make accusations like you just did, you should be prepared to back them up SPECIFICALLY if you wish to get any respect.
crackpots such as Shanahan who think that a bucket of water can vanish overnight.
Link or it didn't happen. Of course it didn't. Like many other things you claim, you simply made it up. NOBODY wrote that but you in typical fashion of misquoting people and mis-attributing intent.
While I may have had a little influence in the development of investments in Rossi and especially for sure in Defkalion, I have absolutely no influence in LENR in general. Neither do most other internet skeptics. You made that up too. It's not politics that held back LENR. It's lack of clarity, lack of competence, lack of definitive and reproducible experiments and data, and crooks like Defkalion and Rossi and possibly others. Specious claims that don't bear out when examined, even from decent scholars and honest scientists -- those things don't help a whole lot either.
That is categorically nothing like investing in LENR. Only 2% max of Woodford's PCT is invested in IH.
So? If LENR is real, it's worth trillions. It's virtually incalculable how much virtually free energy is worth. So even Woodford's small share would be ... what's the expression currently? "YUGE"!