Omicron's Fall Has Plateaued in UK What Should We Do Now?
BBC report on Omicron in UK and why numbers are not going down faster after the peak.
The Omicron variant and vaccinations have changed the game.
Omicron is too infectious for lockdowns to be effective but vaccinations and new treatments, such as Paxlovid mean the burden on the health service can be managed as similar to a bad flu season.
This is now being acknowledged by even the strongest advocates of lockdowns.
So as some here are saying, lockdowns are no longer useful.
However, for those saying the pandemic is now "over" I would say that may be true in some parts of the world but in many other parts that do not have the access to medical treatments that the USA and Europe have then Covid is still a significant threat and there remains the likelyhood of further variants arising.
Covid cases have been falling in the UK since early January - but that decline has now come to a halt.
For more than a week, the daily number of positive tests being reported has been averaging just above 90,000. That's well above the peak of last winter. But how concerning is this?
As people have returned to work and school, contacts will have increased, giving the virus more opportunity to spread. Particularly high levels are now being detected in children and this seems to be translating to an increase in cases in their parents' age group.
Another factor that will come into play is waning immunity - by 10 weeks that initial protection against infection has started to wane quite significantly. Cases are now going to "stay high until the spring" and continue to disrupt our daily lives, Zoe Covid symptom-tracking app lead scientist Prof Tim Spector believes.
The good news, Prof Spector says, is most infections in the vaccinated are "mild", which should keep the numbers ending up in hospital and dying low. That's because while protection against infection wanes, protection against serious illness is much more durable.
It explains why there has been a huge drop in the death rate. And, even with such high levels of Covid in recent weeks, deaths appear to have peaked at a level - a bit below 300 a day - similar to that seen during a bad flu season.
Prof Colbourn says short of a stringent lockdown it is going to be hard to stop the virus spreading now. "Those calling for continued suppression are not thinking it through," he says. "Countries trying this have still seen cases go up - Omicron is just too infectious."
France, with its stringent vaccine requirements to enter bars and restaurants, and Spain, with its strict mask mandates - which apply outdoors and to pupils aged six and over in schools - have both seen cases rise higher than in the UK.
The Netherlands has as well - despite imposing some of the toughest restrictions in Europe by closing hospitality settings, including bars, restaurants and museums, from mid-December until this week.
And this combination of the virus becoming almost unstoppable but also less severe means even those who once advocated a Zero-Covid approach, such as Edinburgh University's Prof Devi Sridhar, accept it is time to change tactics.