Posts by seven_of_twenty

I am amazed at the amount of stupid attempts at prediction, conspiracy theories and just plain wrong claims posted here, mostly by one or two people. I will note that most of what is posted by robert bryant and JedRothwell seems to me to be well documented and worth reading. Also some other folks are posting good information. You can usually tell the difference between good stuff and garbage by inclusion of links and references in the good stuff and insane theories in the bad. I don't have time any more to refute all the crap.

However, one point is worth discussing. And that is "herd immunity." At the moment, it is not clear that the infection with COVID-19 confers lasting immunity. It is not clear that giving very sick patients convalescent serum helps. So maybe we will herd immunity and maybe not (as per NPR News Brief this morning).

Another interesting issue from NPR today: Mice are excellent for virus studies because they grow relatively quickly and have plenty of offspring. But it is not possible to study coronaviruses in "ordinary" mice because they are not susceptible. There is, however, strains of transgenic mice incorporating human and other DNA were developed to combat the 2004-5 viruses. Sperm from these mice was preserved in LN and is now used to breed a lot of susceptible mice to use for studying both therapeutic agents and the issue of herd immunity. The mice experiments are convenient and quick but of course need to be confirmed, perhaps first in primates (apes and monkeys) and humans.

See for example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140478/ "Development of a transgenic mouse model susceptible to human coronavirus 229E"

sam12 : I note that you booked an April flight. You may wish to reconsider. Is the need to make the trip so critical that it is worth risking a higher probability of infection? (rhetorical)

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@SOT - but it does support the Utopia conspiracy theory that these Top Dogs (the one percent) have already been innoculated against the virus which was engineered to trigger a deep recession which will then be followed by Third World War - one way of reducing global warming with a nuclear winter!

Possibly one of the dumbest conspiracy theories I have read in recent memory.

These people are simply stupid and for the most part, lacking any understanding of epidemiology and microbiology. There were people there who certainly know better like Dr. Fauci. However, I suppose he has decided to take his chances in order to be able to do his job. That also may be true for some of the reporters. With the advance of the number of cases which is almost certain to come, I bet their behaviors will change.

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So why has the epidemic subsided in China?

Where do you get such crap? Due to draconian measures and a total police state, it has been possible to reduce the growth of number of cases and deaths per day. This is not the same as stopping the epidemic. It's simply a response to extreme mitigation measures. The desirable result is spreading out the infection numbers vs time curve so as to decrease the overload on the medical care systems. It is in no way causing the eventual number of infections to "subside." . In the end, the total number of cases may not be different. Deaths will be less because of less stress on hospitals and health care people. Eventual true "subsiding" of the epidemic will probably await effective antivirals and a vaccine. That or a natural process such as summer but that doesn't seem likely.

I am watching a US presidential news conference with disbelief. It is an assembly of industry and political leaders and infectious disease specialists. They are all standing close together, adjusting the same microphone with bare hands, grasping the podium one after the other and using no precautions whatsoever. It is incredibly stupid and a horrible example. The reporters are no smarter. They are passing around a microphone and they all grasp it.

Admittedly the risk is still low because of the still small number of cases in the US but what an example to set for the rest of the country. It is like advocating safe sex from a venue where a vigorous orgy is going on with nobody using condoms.

!!!!

THHuxleynew What you want to accomplish is to suppress the epidemic until *effective* antivirals and vaccines can be developed. It seems likely (but not certain) that they can.

BTW, here is an article on chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine toxicity. People with glaucoma or degeneration of the retina or macula should be especially cautious. However, if you look at the incidence of complications in the eye, it's low.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537086/

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After some very interesting comments on this board I have stopped taking my Lisinopril (only 5mb anyway) and taking vitamin D.

But I do not judge this pandemic as risky enough to take the alternative risk of ordering strong meds online. If the lethality was higher then maybe I would consider the risk worth taking.

Of course there are all sorts of guesses from Fauci and the WHO and the UK on different estimates

If your lisinopril is for high blood pressure, you are ill-advised to stop it. The issue in coronavirus seems to be ACE-II and not ACE. ACE-II is not significantly affected by ACE inhibitors, per what I have read. See prior links and discussions in this string. And of course, always check with your health care provider.

Vitamins are pretty safe but may not do much. It is interesting that there is a lot of literature suggesting that high doses (>5000 IU of D3) could be an anti-viral. However, there is literature that says it is no better than placebo. So the role of vitamin D is unclear. Moderate amounts are safe. Huge amounts, maybe not so much. Same with large amounts for long periods. The problem is that D affects calcium metabolism and may cause calcium deposits in organs like blood vessels including those in the heart (coronary arteries). One thing for sure, you do not want to be deficient in vitamins and vitamin D synthesis in people requires skin sunlight exposure. So taking moderate amounts makes good sense.

As for zinc, it probably has been chose to work against rhinovirus which causes common colds. I don't know how similar to coronavirus it is. And the only good studies I know of involve a specific preparation and strength -- around 10-15 mg of zinc gluconate glycine in a lozenge. Good idea to take one at bed time. Long story but some studies suggest aspiration at night of upper tract cells containing virus may be how the lower lung gets infected, which is what kills. Once again, much more data are required!

Here is an early study of zinc and common colds: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8678384

Study on best compound of zinc

Here are all the classical references on zinc gluconate glycine (Cold Eeze lozenges in the US) . https://www.coldeeze.com/en/our-proven-clinical-studies

Note this is for *oral* lozenges with zinc gluconate glycine, not any other compound of zinc. Particularly avoid any nasal spray containing zinc as it can damage or destroy your sense of smell.

$12M lawsuit againt Zicam: click here- link is too long to show

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So as soon as I have the first symptoms of dry cough and sore throat with fever I'll find out how quickly the symptoms disappear with 100 mg hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine combined with 5 mg losartan and a gram or two of fresh organic coconut oil! Anyone else interested in surviving the epidemic?

Hopefully, you are not going to get it. First line of defense is hygiene and protection to avoid exposure. Be aware that at least one young person (in his thirties) in China was treated with everything: intubation, respirator, even ECMO, chloroquine and remdesivir, two other antivirals, convalescent serum from recovered patients, standard antibiotics, and "traditional" Chinese medicine and died rapidly anyway from pneumonia. I misplaced the link (sorry). It was one of the doctors who got sick.

Chloroquine could work but caution, it is an immune inhibitor so whether or not taking it before infection is wise is unclear. If you're thinking using Losartan because it is an ACE receptor blocker (ARB), this is apparently a bad premise. The virus attachment point is an ACE-II receptor and ACE-II receptors are, one can read, not significantly blocked by ARB's. Bummer. A lot of stuff is being tried and hopefully we'll eventually know what works, just as we eventually learned what could help with Ebola.

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but you know that no authorities will recommend it [chloroquine] publicly

You do, do you? Must be omniscient.

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For those interested, Travelpharm in the UK has Cloroquinone 20x250 mg for £20.00 delivered. Dose is 2 tabs a week, suitable for use as anti-malarial in SE Asia only.

Is a prescription required? Also, if someone is exposed to COVID-19, you may want to consider a larger "loading dose." As much as 1 gram. Check with your health provider.

robert bryant

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Very prudent. Sartans vs prils is a complex issue... even for the BMJ editors.

Yup. I under-estimated it so thanks for that article. Disregard what I wrote before. Neither ARB's nor ACE inhibitors seem indicated. Too bad.

from robert bryant

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"The notion that angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) like Losartan can prevent COVID-2019 infection has started to circulate,

and in some cases we also witnessed its prescription for this reason, although no basis of evidence is available to date."

...the practice of prescribing ARBs or ACE-inhibitors for the prevention of COVID-2019 infection should be discouraged.

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m406/rr-11

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If I recall, the chloroquine is (hopefully) effective because it serves as a cell membrane gateway and allows zinc ions into the human cell, and it is the zinc +2 ion which inhibits viral RNA polymerase from working (to produce more virus.) So, if chloroquine medicine does not have zinc as an additive (I have no idea), it presumably would be good to get zinc supplement as well. Zinc is critical for cell functioning and its quantity is of course regulated by the cell, but I suppose having more zinc hurts and viral mechanism more than the cell's own mechanisms

Perhaps. If zinc is useful, there is a commercially available over the counter lozenge in the US called Cold Eeze. It is zinc glycinate and the formulation has been tested for absorption into mucous membranes. In some old double blind studies, Cold Eeze alone suppressed rhinovirus "common colds." I read this result was not solid. It does seem to given good subjective relief. I have used it. In moderate doses there is no toxicity.

Unfortunately not the same can be said for chloroquine. See : "Chloroquine And Hydroxychloroquine Toxicity" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537086/

If you already have glaucoma or various diseases of the retina, macular degeneration, etc. caution is advised. I only browsed the article but it seems the toxicity happens only after some time, like maybe a year. I suppose if you are at risk of COVID-19 due to a known or likely exposure, it is probably worth it. If you are low risk, I'd keep it around but not use it until it is needed. Be sure to read a lot about any pharmaceutical you plan to use and only use those purchased without prescription on the internet as a last resort.

------------------------------------------ different issue related to COVID-19:

Sorry if this was already posted-- the virus attaches to a type of ACE (angiotensin converting enzyme) receptor. Many people take ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure. Drugs like enalapril (others ending in -pril). If you take these, you may want to use a different family of drugs. Some have very difficult to control high blood pressure and need to decrease the amount of angiotensin and therefore the amount of ACE in their blood. For them, there is another choice, an angiotensin receptor blocker or ARB. ARB's have the added potential benefit of somewhat blocking the virus whereas ACE inhibitors theoretically could make it worse. ARB's have not been shown as effective as ACE inhibitors in preventing heart disease and strokes (CVA's). ARB's are drugs like Losartan and others ending in -sartan. The potential effects of ACE inhibitors and ARB's on virus infection with COVID-19, far as I know, are purely theory at this point. But I did not look for studies yet. It would seem prudent to switch to ARB's but check with your physician first.

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I just found this article, I really don’t know if this source is really trustable, but certainly the idea that China has been saving people from death with lungs extracted from political prisoners, is spine chilling.

First, what JedRothwell - you can't do major surgery on a critically ill patient, not to mention immune suppression required for organ transplants, without most likely killing them. Second, what is to stop the virus from infecting and destroying the new lung, especially in the environment of immune suppression? Maybe some sadistic weirdo somewhere actually tried it but it would almost certainly be futile.

Breitbar, the source, is the origin of some of the most fragrant, steamy, dreadful, made up, conspiracy bullpucky in the entire world. Lies are their speciality and they relish false stories that seem spectacular. They are to be despised.

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Why are these people being allowed to die when we now have cheap effective treatments? ACE receptor inhibitors, chloroquine and monolaurin? Oh, I forgot there's no profit to be made out of these treatments. Medics seem to be unwilling to try anything new even with known, relatively safe drugs used for other conditions. So how many deaths before WHO approval?Possibly

The first commandment of medicine is "primum non nocere." (first, do no harm). Do you know of any studies demonstrating the efficacy and safety of "ARB's" (ACE receptor blockers), chloroquine or monolaurin (I have no idea what that is). Profits? Nonsense. Treating physicians don't give a shit about profits. They will use anything that is proven to work and that can't make things worse. ARB's and chloroquine aren't being suppressed. They are readily available, in the US and on the internet from India, with a prescription. Actually from India, you may not need the prescription. Brand name ARB's can be quite profitable for the pharma industry -- $3 - $5 each pill. "Medics" (whatever that means) simply want to treat their patients to the best of their ability *without* harming them. BTW, Remdesivir with or without Chloroquine has promise as well but again, the efficacy and safety are just beginning to be studied. And as a potential SARS vaccine showed when tested in mice, it is not difficult to cause more harm than good.

BTW, nobody is "being allowed to die" - here anyway and also in China. The problem is that patients die in spite of combinations of remdesivir, chloroquine, plasma or serum from recovered patients, a variety of antibiotics and anti-HIV antivirals, supportive measures including "ECMO" (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation), steroids and many other things. Some, even younger patients, have received essentially all of the above and still died. Here is some additional information:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news…ates-200310235816410.html

80 clinical trials in the works: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00444-3

https://www.wired.com/story/ch…trials-aimed-at-covid-19/

To revisit briefly the issue of gloves which JedRothwell already addressed well: Surgeons scrub their hands thoroughly with brushes and germicidal soap for a prescribed duration and elaborate method prior to doing surgery. Then they also wear tested, sterilized, surgical gloves. Why bother with the gloves? They wash their hands, don't they? It's because while hand washing, even the lengthy and compulsive pre-surgery style, does not remove all germs. That's why the gloves. Why the washing before putting on the gloves? In case a glove gets a hole, maybe one you can't even see, or breaks, then the clean hands are a backup. Of course, the gloves protect the surgeon as well as the patient.

In the instance of preventing catching a virus, it is much more reliable to wear a nitrile, polyurethane or latex glove and then remove it (using the correct method which you can look up) than it is to simply wash your hands. It is also easier to clean a glove with alcohol while it is in use than it is to reliable clean your hand. If the exposure is potentially severe, do both-- wear gloves and after removing the gloves, wash your hands.

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I have a limited supply of gloves but a nurse told me I can toss them into the washing machine and reuse them.

Costco has excellent nitrile disposable gloves which are inexpensive. If they are momentarily out of stock, they will have them again. If you wash surgical gloves in a machine (I didn't know you could do that) then test them by inflation (like one would test a condom) before use.

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If they do not successfully implement the changes ordered by the government yesterday, they will see a catastrophic, exponential increase. So will the U.S.

Without successful intervention, an exponential growth phase is virtually inevitable. This is both from theory and from the history of many past epidemics with various highly infectious agents.

Parenthetically, politicians are at high risk because they go into large crowds and interact directly with their audience. And most are old white men, the exact target demographic. Selfie anyone?

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There is still a lot we don't understand about transmission in Western countries with population exercising good hygiene and selective closures and lock-downs. I think good hygiene might be achievable in UK, not so sure it will be in US where it seems half the population does not believe scientists, and political leaderships just says no-one should worry.

I'm not sure what you mean by "good hygiene." I just returned from a grocery store. I picked up a dozen items that were handled first by other people, some probably recently. I was in a line very close to other people. I used a point of sale terminal. I was able to pay with non-contact ApplePay but had to slide a membership card through a reader requiring me to grab the reader because it was on a swivel mount. Then I got fuel and had to input zip code data via a touch panel that is used by everyone and is never cleaned. At the bank, I had to enter my PIN on a touch panel, despite having ApplePay for ID. And this is just the beginning. Think of standing in a pharmacy line to pick up prescriptions. What did the persons before me at that counter have?

I now carry an 0.5 ounce container of sanitizer in my pocket... but what happens when I go to put it in or take it out? How do I get into my car without touching anything before I sanitize my hands?

Our society is less set up to prevent transmission than a primitive one. Industrial design has never considered microbiology of infection. Humans have relied largely on natural or acquired (vaccine or previous exposure) immunity. That pretty much fails entirely with coronavirus COVID-19.

Wyttenbach

Serological assays (antibody tests) for COVID-19 do exist. They are not used in the USA... that I know of yet. Here are two citations:

https://globalbiodefense.com/h…outbreak-contact-tracing/

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Researchers at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore have used antibody testing to demonstrate a link between two separate clusters of infections, and in patients who had cleared their symptoms at the time they were given the antibody test. Meanwhile, researchers in Taiwan are also working to identify a SARS-CoV-2 antibody that could be used for diagnostic testing, and they say such a test could deliver a result in a matter of minutes rather than hours.

https://www.the-scientist.com/…ovid-19-diagnostics-67210

Testing for antibody is not intended for diagnosis. It is used for infection tracing in patients who have recovered and are no longer shedding virus from their respiratory tract and nose. Their real time PCR test for virus would be negative but antibodies remain in the blood for a long time and can be detected.

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I think it's probably worth just sticking to tonic water which will only possibly give you a slight edge against the virus - any slight advantage could be the difference between life and death

Complete nonsense. The amount of quinine in modern tonic water, if that is what you are thinking of, is negligible to zero. Look it up. Some has only quinine flavor and no quinine at all.

I suggest drinking rum. It does nothing against coronavirus but it does allay anxiety, albeit very termporarily. And if it is over 120 proof (60% ethanol) it can be used in a pinch, to clean surfaces and hands. Smells good too.

The outer packaging return address label for the chloroquine and amantadine I received was:

Combitic Global Caplet Pvt. Ltd.

Address: 2027, 7, Bazar Sangatrashan,

Chuna Mandi, Paharganj, New Delhi, Delhi 110055, India

per Google: Pharmaceutical company in New Delhi, India

They were clearly shipped from India directly. I think all this this makes a counterfeit unlikely unless it is an extremely elaborate one which they rarely are.