Posts by seven_of_twenty

Quote from Navid

I talked to a Intensivist in Michigan. He didnt say much about HCQ but did say something about "Trump thinks he's a doctor and a engineer" -- but what was notable that he said "everyone is going to get this disease, and anyone who thinks vaccine has no idea....most vaccines are at most 15% effective"

FOS, as usual: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4802703/

"In industrialised countries, several infectious diseases have been controlled and, in some cases, eliminated through routine vaccination. The generally high level of vaccination coverage has led to a dramatic decline in the reported incidence of many vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (Fig. 1) (7). A comparison between the period prior to the implementation of national vaccination recommendations in the United States and 2006 showed a greater than 99% decline in the number of cases of diphtheria (100%), measles (99.9%), paralytic poliomyelitis (100%), and rubella (99.9%). A greater than 92% decline in cases and a 99% or greater decline in deaths were shown for mumps, pertussis, and tetanus (8, 9). In 2013, it was estimated that 103 million cases of childhood disease in the United States had been prevented by the use of vaccines since 1924, of which 26 million cases in the past decade alone (10). A similar trend has been observed in Europe (Table 1) (9, 11). In France, diphtheria, tetanus and polio, BCG (tuberculosis), and pertussis vaccines were estimated to be responsible for saving more than 400,000 years of life (4)."

BTW, for smallpox: 100% eradicated by vaccine. Polio would be also except for the abject morons who misrepresent the risks so that some people won't use it. Note that "common" influenza vaccine is 67% effective in preventing influenza A (H1N1) which is a pandemic strain which in the past killed millions and caused the 1918 world wide disastrous pandemic. Now, it's mostly prevented by herd immunity conferred by mass vaccination. And if someone gets it, it can be treated effectively with antiviral meds.

and ... in the specific case of influenza: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5815489/

"VE was estimated to be 25% (CI = 13% to 36%) against illness caused by influenza A(H3N2) virus, 67% (CI = 54%–76%) against A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, and 42% (CI = 25%–56%) against influenza B viruses. ... "

But beyond that, when vaccinated individuals do get sick with the illness, they are less sick and recover faster and there are fewer deaths and hospitalizations.

Obviously, vaccines vary. What the efficiency (VE) will be for a coronavirus vaccine is yet to be determined. And even if a vaccine to confer useful lasting immunity is impossible or takes a very long time, related research into natural and synthetic (monoclonal) antibodies may result in an effective treatment even before a vaccine and from a related technology.

I will defer insulting the surprisingly consistent (consistently wrong) poster, though it is very tempting, out of concern for moderators. However there should be an award for those are most wrong most of the time. Maybe a contest. And a Pigasus award perhaps. With an invitation to submit a paper to the Journal of Irreproducible Results.

Just FYI -- news on COVID-19 via Market Watch -- new outbreaks reported in states planning to reopen soon as Trump says testing is overrated (5/15/2020)

https://www.marketwatch.com/st…ting-overrated-2020-05-15

Quote from Lou Pagnucco

NIH designs a defective HCQ trial (despite good intentions, of course)

Do you mind providing a printed reference for that? A lot of us don't have time for Youtube videos, especially rambling ones from Fox News (or any other) talking heads. I really want to read if NIH's design is bad but I don't want Laura Ingraham or someone similar on Fox's payroll, explaining it to me, thank you very much.

Quote

I do suspect that what she is saying about the use of HCQ being heavily influenced by a fear and intimidation campaign, is correct. The evidence is right there in plain sight. It is politicized as the media set out to do.

Never should have come to that. A new low for the advocacy media. As even you have said, this should be just another drug to be tried. If it works it works, if not, go on to the next one.

If HCQ does prove effective, I would like to think they will be held accountable for their role in suppressing its use, but that will never happen. They will just move on to the next thing to get Trump

Nobody suppressed anything. Nobody is precluded from doing research on virtually any therapy they want and there are a whole lot being done on HCQ, AZI +/- zinc. .... Poiitical commntary removed. Alan...Having said that, I am disappointed in CNN and it's medical consultants. They did go out of their way to point out only the studies on the drugs that yielded bad results and did a terrible job of critical thinking about how and why those results were obtained. Same of course, with the Fox network pushing the meds. Obviously, the correct answer for now is we simply don't know because there is not one solitary single study which is correctly done.

Quote from Navid

Fear is an infection. You have it (or you are paid).

Here we go with the paranoid bullshit again. Hey, Navid: nobody here is paid. No one pays people to write on low volume specialized forums. You can make money on the internet by posting but it had better be stuff that gets millions of hits.

Quote from Shane D.

-has had "phenomenal success" treating her patients aged 30-55

-her fellow doctors are afraid to use it

-the pharmacists have been ordered not to fill HCQ prescriptions without a diagnosis, so she is telling other doctors to lie and list something other than COVID

-she is working with Texas politicians to make it more freely available

You can start at 5:45, or if you can handle her championing Trump listen from the start:

Unless I see the words "large, controlled, blinded, matched trial, performed by reputable researchers" I am not wasting my time on a video! Were those words there, please?

BTW, I don't know the medical board rules in TX but in CA, the physician does not need to provide a diagnosis to prescribe. But lying on a professional issue can cause an investigation and loss of license. Bad idea.

Quote from Wyttenbach

I informed my contact in South Africa that Sutherlandia/Sceletium works fine to treat corona and they should stop to ship it out of the country and use it locally for the poor ones.

Quote

The knowledge is from private therapies of strongly infected people...

And we all know how important private therapies (whatever that is) are in scientific research.

No, seriously, BS like this can kill people-- some will actually believe it.

axil: Good find, thank you. Very interesting. Still awaiting the big double blind controlled and matched studies. I hope someone does them right including zinc.

The US Airforce Thunderbird exhibition flight team flies over San Diego hospitals to acknowledge the "medical heroes" of the pandemic. From CBS 8

and from a flight enthusiast channel on Youtube, the view from the aircraft:

Quote from Shane D.

Nothing new in their results compared to the rest of the world. The young are relatively unscathed, and the older take the brunt. Women fare well as compared to men, and the obese suffer more. The black, and poor, or as they describe it " role of ethnicity", fare about as well as in the US.

Missing the point as usual. The young are not "relatively unscathed" whatever that means. Fewer have symptoms but there is no evidence they have more resistance to infection. Infection means they will spread the disease and they are even more dangerous to others if they are asymptomatic. Of course, some, many more than you think, will get a more severe form of the disease and may suffer misery with or without end organ damage. Death rate will be low with the exception of those who have severe pre-existing conditions. Young people with congenital heart disease, those post chemo or radiation for cancer, those with congenital "errors of metabolism" and everyone with diabetes whether type I or II will have an appreciable death rate, regardless of age. So will those with HIV, probably in any stage of treatment. It is amazing how facile you are in writing off serious permanent injury or death which do happen even in the young. And there is a step increase at around 45 years of age and again at 65 and over 75. But it affects all age groups. One of the few people I know personally who had test-proven COVID-19 is a 28 year old, not very smart, construction worker. He worked several days sick thinking he had a bad cold. The next day, he woke up in bad condition, hardly able to get out of bed. He did recover but may have both liver and kidney damage (he did drink heavily at times but how many people do that?)

Dream on Shane. But outside your dreaming, be careful please.

I noticed antibodies, presumably synthetic monoclonal antibodies, mention and in context with cancer. While rarely profound results in terms of tumor regression and over all remission can be achieved with these, usually they buy the patient only a few weeks or months. Valuable but hardly up to the hype they get. Even oncolytic viruses, often genetically re-engineered, are used to treat brain cancer: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3632333/

MAB's against coronavirus are just starting to be developed. Some which block cytokine storm already exist. What effects these will eventually have on the COVID-19 disease is unknown as of yet. Here is a typical sample article, so far only in tissue culture:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y

Quote from Bob#2

More people die every year of starvation than Covid19

Not in the US. I couldn't even find reports of people starving to death in the US. One would make headlines. In the undeveloped world, of course, but not the US. Please keep the comparisons reasonable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunger_in_the_United_States

The other point is that the coronavirus which causes COVID-19 is far from done in the USA. Way far, unfortunately.

Like Jed, I am very sympathetic to people whose businesses and incomes have disappeared or greatly diminished. He has accurately fixed the blame. The only thing we can do is rely on intelligent policies to bring testing and contact tracing into universal use including antibody testing so we can intelligently allow those who are relatively safe to work as soon as possible. Unfortunately the idiot yoyo's who insist on prancing around without masks or social distancing, and those who clump together at parties, churches and other events (most of which have no economic value anyway), widely spreading the disease, make it impossible for the reasonable people to get back to work without the risk of maiming or killing themselves or someone else they come into contact with while asymptomatic. So whose fault is that?

Quote from Roseland67

can I use that sot?

Be my guest, at my customary royalty rate of course. Remember, I am paid to write on forums!

Shane D.

Quote

Since you on your high horse today, maybe you could tell us the precautions you are taking, that separate you from those "fools running loose"

Social distancing, hygiene, cleaning including stuff coming in, mostly shopping by mail and deliveries, masks (good ones, ASTM rated and US made when possible), gloves and no socializing for entertainment except with masks and at a respectful distance. I plan to do that until effect treatment or prevention are developed. Are you a fool running loose by any chance?

Quote from Wyttenbach

Less that 1% needs hospitalization

Oh joy! Even if true, which is, at best, not verified, in the US, that would be >3 million people if everyone became infected or 2 million hospitalizations to reach herd immunity, if herd immunity even applies to COVID-19 which also isn't known. And if you put the death rate at the lowest conceivable level of 0.1%, then >300,000 deaths would result. It would probably be many more because even now, we are rapidly approaching the 100,000 death mark *without* completely letting people run loose like fools.

Better late than never, I guess: https://www.nih.gov/news-event…ithromycin-treat-covid-19

2000 people with proper matching and controls, one would hope. These will be mildly to moderately sick. The article doesn't say the precise requirements and what testing will take place. EKG's? This would all be covered in the actual study proposal which is linked in the article. Treatment time is 6 days. How long it will take to amass 2000 patients and analyze results is hard to predict. Hopefully, academics move faster than courts of law. I am guessing at least several months but not a year to obtain a hopefully clear and credible (and completely non-political) result.

Quote from Navid

I hope someone pays you to wax on in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Oh (fill in whatever deity you prefer)! I have long wished someone would pay me to debunk all manner of bullshit. The supply is endless so anyone finding such a gig could become a billionaire. Someone to pay me? Please Please Please... who? I will make you my agent and pay you the usual commission if you can deliver on your implicit promise.

Quote from Wyttenbach

The subcutaneous injections are safe!! Patients (after deep surgery) in Switzerland are sent home with 2-3 weeks pre-filled injections they have to daily apply themselves.

Again you are confused about a medical issue. You are referring to low molecular weight heparin (Lovenox or enoxaparin in the US) and even it is not complication free. But this formulation is not known to prevent or treat COVID-19 when given subcutaneously. The heparin proposed against COVID-19 is the traditional short acting formulation and it must be given continuously by IV. Trust me, from personal experience administering it, it is most emphatically not safe and should never be used in the outpatient setting - that type and by that route.

Here is a search to examine: https://scholar.google.com/sch…q=bleeding+heparin+&btnG= If that doesn't cause you considerable concern, then maybe you too got your M.D. degree from Trump University. And remember, complications of heparin are most common in people with organ damage-- just what happens with COVID-19. Bon appetit.

Quote from Alan Smith

An interesting cultural difference here between the UK and the USA. Perhaps because of slightly better job security and social welfare networks in the UK than in America, in the USA when politicians suggest 'get America back to work' people go out and demonstrate against lockdown restrictions. In the UK when the politicians suggest going back to work, a lot of people say 'no thanks', it isn't safe.'

Yes. Also, I read but did not have the time to check, that the UK is one of the worst affected first world countries in terms of both number of cases and also number of deaths.

Quote from Wyttenbach

Do you understand that the active people (age < 65) want to work and in fact most of them are not at risk?

Nonsense. You are confusing a *relatively* low risk of death with a) the possibility of being maimed and permanently injured or disabled and b) the very real chance of bringing the virus to a loved one, young or old, who may end up seriously hurt or killed. But no worries. There are so many stupid people in the US, the experiment is being done and they are the "controls." We're rapidly coming up on 100.000 deaths and uncounted injuries and misery. And it will get much much higher because of stupid and poorly considered statements like yours.

Quote from JedRothwell

This Ingraham person has a screw loose. She has no idea what she is talking about:

Laura Ingraham is flagrantly ignorant on many subjects which never stops her from waxing eloquent and pretending to know about them. She's basically a fetid gas bag.

Quote from Navid

This isn't about Covid folks. It is about the biggest thing, control and power. They have the world locked in their homes, think about that.

What a moronic statement! The virus, not politicians or subjects of conspiracy theories have the world by the gonads. And the world is not locked in their homes at all, not even the USA, not by far. But if cautions by reputable scientists are not heeded, a total lockdown may happen.

So I call: