JedRothwell Verified User
  • Member since Oct 11th 2014
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Posts by JedRothwell

    Imagine the possibilities, if only we had an early treatment, Covid would be a memory !!!

    If 70% or 80% of people would get vaccinated, COVID would be a memory. We don't need early treatment. Early treatment costs hundreds or thousands more than a vaccination, and the patient must often undergo weeks of misery and life threatening illness even with the best early treatment. The cost to society in lost work is also high.

    Rothwell might have a better opinion of the state of affairs with the NASA contract and the bold claims of GEC Forsley, Pamela Boss, F. Gordon et al...

    No, I don't know a thing about it. Everything in your message is new to me. I hear from Pam Boss from time to time, but nothing about this. I think she is largely retired. I say "largely" because in my experience no scientist ever really retires. They keep plugging on until they drop.


    The artist Moses Soyer worked until his last moment. He was at the easel, painting a model. He said to her, "a little smile, please." She smiled, looked over, and he dropped dead. There can be no better way to die!

    What do you call Singapore's large rise in cases, despite an 84 percent double vaccination rate? A coincidence?

    I would say the Chinese sinovac vaccine does not work well against the Delta variant, and it does not work well until after the second dose. That is the main one they are using. That is no coincidence. I would also say that 10 deaths out of 26,000 cases means the vaccine is preventing serious illness.

    I really think you should learn when to quit.

    I really think the notion that we should allow lunatic Death Cult fanatics to dictate to doctors and take over hospital treatments is a BAD IDEA. It will lead to chaos and malpractice lawsuits. I am sure it is against the law. That is what you are advocating. I really think you should think twice. Be careful what you wish for. Are you also going to let random passengers into the cockpit to fly the airplane? Are you in favor of letting amateurs jump into cherry picker trucks to fix downed electric power lines? Are you going to let illiterate faith healers man the poison control hotlines? "Just pray it away" they'll say, as people die from drinking household cleaners.


    You have gone off your rocker if you think we should let these people dictate safety procedures to surgeons! An anti-vaxxer is an ignorant idiot, by definition. Obviously she is not qualified to make any decision about a medical procedure.


    Anyone going in for serious, life-threatening surgery who refuses to abide by the doctors' orders is also an ignorant idiot, by definition. A suicidal lunatic. Let her find some idiot doctor. No properly trained, ethical doctor will do a procedure that he knows is dangerous when the danger can easily be avoided. That is extremely unethical.

    If a doctor were to deny treatment to a drug addict, a gang related shooting victim, AIDS patient or the obese because he disapproved the behaviors that brought them under his care, he would lose his medical license for violating his oath. Then he would have been sued and certainly lose. Yet somehow, it is OK to deny a life saving procedure because of a vaccine and not face the same consequences?

    When a doctor treats a gunshot victim, he does not allow the patient to say: "No you cannot take off my clothes or clean the wound. Just take the bullet out. Local anesthetic only. And I am going to hang on to my pistol. And don't give me any antibiotics. And no blood transfusion!" Patients are not allowed to dictate medical treatment instructions to doctors.


    It is okay to deny a lifesaving procedure if the patient refuses the preparation or treatment. In the case you cite, with the lunatic who refuses a vaccine, they should have the patient sign an AMA (against medical advice) form and go shopping for some other doctor. Some doctor who does not mind endangering patients for no reason, and who is so stupid he will risk a malpractice lawsuit when the patient gets COVID. You can bet that lunatic will sue when she gets the disease the doctors warned her she might get. Being in a post-op hospital room is a dandy opportunity to get COVID.


    COVID can be easily avoided with a vaccine. It would criminally stupid not to insist on this, a few weeks before the procedure. Obviously, if it is an emergency procedure or if the patient cannot get the vaccine for some medically valid reason, they should go ahead. Otherwise, the patient must follow the rules like everyone else.


    Obese patients going in for stomach reduction surgery have to go for a few months beforehand eating less and losing weight, or the doctor will not do the procedure. They have to show some level of psychological preparedness, because even after the surgery they can still overeat.


    Long time, severe alcoholics are denied many transplants because they are not likely to survive long. That is perfectly ethical.

    Those behind the push to pressure the unvaccinated into getting jabbed, are in a race to the bottom. Each seemingly trying to out- do the other in how dehumanizing, and cruel they can be. In this case, going so far as holding a life hostage, and few are even raising an eyebrow about it. This is just getting out of hand, with no bottom in sight.

    You refer here to the doctors who demand their patients get vaccinated. In other words, the doctors who refuse to let patients commit suicide. You call that tyranny. I call it the doctors not setting themselves up to be sued for malpractice. You can be sure that any person so stupid they would not get vaccinated is also the kind of idiot who would sue the hospital for something he did to himself, that the doctors warned him not to do. Like the guy who ignored instructions and ate a meal before going in for a colonoscopy.


    What is with you, anyway? Do you think a patient can magically change the laws of biology, wave his hand, and make a new set of rules? Ignore the last 200 years of medical science? Because the germ theory holds us a life hostage!! Unfair! I want you to do surgery without cutting me!! This is getting out of hand, but not the way you think. People who think they can just ignore medical science and wing it are lunatics. You don't want to live? Fine! Don't go to the hospital. Don't get surgery. If you want surgery, do as the surgeons tell you.

    Vaccinated accounted for 82% of Covid-19 deaths, 69% of hospitalisations & 54% of cases in September according to official figures

    but U.S. Hospitals are now refusing to operate on individuals who are NOT vaccinated

    Good for them. If you want an operation, you have be vaccinated. It makes no sense to allow surgery on an unvaccinated person. It is too dangerous. If they are infected post-op they will likely die. It takes only two minutes to be vaccinated, and it is the safest vaccine in history, so there is no reason why any patient should refuse it. Surgery on an unvaccinated person is barbaric, like operating with dirty hands and street clothes, or without anesthetic.


    If you want medical treatment, you have to follow the doctors' orders. you can't dictate how they do their job, any more than you can tell a commercial airline pilot what route he should follow. You don't get to choose how surgery is done, or what health measure they say you must take beforehand. Last summer, someone I know was in for a colonoscopy. Another patient in the other room came in having eaten a full meal that morning. They had to send him home, of course. He was complaining, but what did he expect? Did he think they could do the procedure if he did not follow instructions? Magically see around the stuff in his gut? Demanding an operation if you are not vaccinated is demanding the doctors commit malpractice.

    The data is not looking good for those who want to believe and promote the idea that getting vaccinated is stopping the spread of the virus. A

    Except in the U.S., Japan and every other country in the world. What do you call a reduction down to 3% of the previous high in Japan, in a few months? A coincidence?

    Steve Kirsch: Pfizer vaccines kill 2 people for every 1 saved . He transparently documented his calculations in presentation slides providing further details in a white paper co-authored by his collaborators Jessica Rose and Mathew Crawford.

    The Kirsch paper is garbage. It is about the worst garbage I have ever seen in an academic paper, and that is saying a lot, because the cold fusion literature is chock full of garbage. Kirsch et al. are first class certified idiots, right up there Gary Taubes, the dumbest person in cold fusion. See:


    Are the mRNA vaccines really safe? Evaluating claims by Steven Kirsch on danger of spike proteins
    There are a number of individuals on social media confidently claiming the mRNA vaccines are dangerous and killing people, and implying the vaccine…
    www.covid-datascience.com

    Thus, on VAERS, the antivax stories miss out key context:

    The difference between reporting on a new vaccine and reporting on an old, known safe, vaccine
    The fact that VAERS must record all (or at least) most serious background events because they might be vaccine side efefcts, and the background event level is quite high

    Plus, the COVID vaccines are being given to most of the population in one year. Most vaccines are for children. They are given once or twice to small children, which is roughly 1/70th of the population per year. So, for COVID there is a lot more data coming in from many more vaccinations.

    Results

    The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 39. In individuals aged greater than 40, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

    It is mainly the base rate fallacy. It is not possible elderly vaccinated people really are more likely to be infected than unvaccinated people. That would overthrow all of medical knowledge going back 200 years. It would be like demonstrating a magnet motor perpetual motion machine. It ain't going to happen.

    Maybe the unvaccinated just made a mistake! Do you forgive them?

    I might forgive them, but nature does not. The virus does not care about your motivation or your politics. Without the vaccine it is much more likely you will get sick or die. Many unvaccinated people did make a mistake. Many were fooled by antivaxxer lies, such as this poor soul:


    Lorine Carol Kaylor, 48, Huntington, WV. Cashier at McDonalds. Unvaxxed, dead from COVID.
    UPDATE (10/12/21 5am): Added to the bottom of the story. According to this obituary Lori died on October 6 from COVID. She leaves behind Harold A. Kaylor, her…
    www.sorryantivaxxer.com

    Do they take your phone bill at the grocery store when buying beer?

    Seriously, I do not know what they take for proof of age when people do not have licenses. When the law was first implemented, years ago, cashiers were allowed to push a button on the screen for "customer looks old." Lately, they have to ask every time, even when it is obvious you are over 21.


    I suppose a utility bill is reasonable proof that you live in a certain address and you are named John Smith, but it is not proof that you are over 21. I think utility bills are the most commonly used form of ID for voting for people without licenses. Everyone has electricity, but not everyone has a telephone or an expired military ID.


    When you present a license, utility bill, or whatever ID you have, they look you up in a voter registration database to confirm that John Smith lives at that address. So, it isn't as if they need to have full confidence the utility bill is actually yours. Plus you have to sign the register. (Or write an "X" if you are illiterate.) They have your signature on file. In other words, there are multiple safeguards in place other than the ID.

    And yet it was FDA approved. So how was the FDA fooled into saying that it's an easy and effective treatment ?

    I can explain that. The FDA is staffed by people. Not omniscient Gods. People make mistakes. Even the most talented, smartest, most skilled professionals sometimes make mistakes.


    That's all there is to it.

    Finally we get the true number of vaccines deaths. Maine has a population of 1.3 mio. So this would give some 200'000 vaccine deaths for USA in the potus high load month only...

    And yet there is no sign of this in the excess deaths. Not in the U.S. or any other country. How strange! How did they manage to hide 200,000 deaths in the U.S.? One of W.'s fellow Death Cult fanatics claims that 225,000 to 1.4 million people have died in the U.S. this year from vaccines. Yet there is no trace of these dead people in any statistic! See:


    Evaluating claim in "peer reviewed" Toxicology Reports article vaccines kill 5 for every 1 save
    There a paper published in Toxicology Reports that included an analysis purporting to estimate causal vaccine deaths in the US claiming between 227,792 and…
    www.covid-datascience.com


    QUOTE:


    Could the winter 2020 spike be caused by misattributed vaccine deaths as [the Death Cult] might claim? Well, this spike in excess deaths started increasing precipitously in November 2020 and reached its peak in early January, when vaccinations had just started, and then sharply declined in January and February as vaccinations of seniors and other vulnerable members of society were ramping up. And then this lull of the lowest weekly excess death numbers of the pandemic kicked in from March through July, the time period during which most vaccinated USA residents received their inoculations, before increasing again in late July and early August as the Delta surge kicked in (also a time with very low daily inoculation rates).


    Where would all these hundreds of thousands or millions of purported vaccine-induced deaths be hiding?

    I agree jed, but now to throw you a curve ball, why would the Democratic party not want I'd,s for voting? Confusion rules???

    Confusion only rules if you do not read the news. All states require IDs for voting, as far as I know. Georgia and other southern states do. No one objects to that. The Democrats are fully in favor of IDs. However, the problem in Georgia is that the Republicans want to require IDs that many poor people and elderly people do not have, and cannot get. Up until now, Georgia voting allowed things like utility or phone bills, or tax bills addressed to the voter. They allowed student IDs, ex-military IDs and expired licenses. Everyone other than homeless people have these. Now, the Republicans want people to present state issued, up-to-date driver's licenses only (or so-called non-driver's licenses). They want people to xerox licenses to vote by mail. A surprising number of people in Georgia do not have cars and never had one. Most of them live far from any office that can provide one. They include blind people, for example. They do not have birth certificates or passports. They have no internet access. No credit card or bank account. No access to a xerox machine except at a public library in the next county. It may seem strange to cosmopolitan people, but I know some elderly people who have never touched a computer.


    The Republicans want to impose several other rules that will make it difficult for poor, elderly, rural, minority people to vote.


    The Brennan Center described the problem with IDs:

    • Nearly 500,000 eligible voters do not have access to a vehicle and live more than 10 miles from the nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. Many of them live in rural areas with dwindling public transportation options.
    • More than 10 million eligible voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week.
    • 1.2 million eligible black voters and 500,000 eligible Hispanic voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. People of color are more likely to be disenfranchised by these laws since they are less likely to have photo ID than the general population.
    • Many ID-issuing offices maintain limited business hours. For example, the office in Sauk City, Wisconsin is open only on the fifth Wednesday of any month. But only four months in 2012 — February, May, August, and October — have five Wednesdays. In other states — Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas — many part-time ID-issuing offices are in the rural regions with the highest concentrations of people of color and people in poverty.

    The Challenge of Obtaining Voter Identification
    Ten states now have unprecedented restrictive voter ID laws, which require citizens to produce specific types of government-issued photo identification before…
    www.brennancenter.org

    Let's go back to January 20th, 1960 in Eisenhower farewell address he warned of the military industrial complex which in todays terms relate to big pharma. Which also involves the NIH, and the FDA.

    That's farfetched! Frankly, that's ridiculous. There is a lot wrong with big pharma, but the situation does not resemble weapons manufacturing in 1960. Weapons makers influenced U.S. national defense policy. Eisenhower talked about "the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex." The influence of big pharma, and small pharma, and pharmaceutical research at national labs and universities is entirely warranted. It is rightfully sought. Who else is going to influence policy? Who else is qualified? Saying that the pharmaceutical industry should not influence healthcare is like saying that Intel should not influence computing, or Boeing should have no say in aviation. Or that automakers should play no role in developing self-driving cars.


    To be sure, companies other than automakers, such as Google, have tremendous AI knowledge. They may play a big role in the development of self-driving cars. DARPA played a decisive role already. They started the whole field with a prize for the first successful self-driving car. Many different companies and research organizations might contribute to self-driving cars, and they are all welcome. Many different companies might contribute to vaccine technology, and they are also welcome. Breakthroughs may come from outside established big pharma companies. Nothing prevents that. Many of the key developments in mRNA technology came from government sponsored research at universities. That's all good. There is no monopoly, and there is no unwarranted influence. On the contrary, Pfizer in particular did a magnificent job developing their vaccine. It was one of the most warranted R&D projects in history. It could not have been done without previous research paid for by Uncle Sam, but it broke a lot of new ground. There is nothing to complain about it. It will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars.


    Furthermore, the NIH and the FDA are only monopolies in the U.S. Other countries have national public health agencies which are alternatives or competitors to the NIH. Naturally, they also cooperate with one another, more than rival industrial corporations do. Although corporations cooperate more than you might think, for example in establishing industrial standards. Standards for self-driving cars are already being established by government agencies and automakers. Such standards are essential.

    More importantly for me (the AR vs RR distinction is semantics that Ron Brown uses becaue it makes risks sound smaller, it is not a real thing) we have a better way to determine whole population risk reduction. we can look at the change in IFR for a country such as the UK or Japan between when the population is wholly vaccinated and when it is not.

    As I have said a few times already, the risk reduction of the vaccine for one individual is not the same as the risk reduction for the entire population. The latter can be much higher thanks to an exponential feedback loop. The vaccine can reduce infections so much that the rate of transmission falls below 1. That lowers cases, which lowers transmission, which lowers cases.


    My late mother, a demographer, said that the "rhythm method" of birth control is unreliable for any particular couple. They might easily end up with 2 or 3 children. * But for the population as a whole, it is a surefire way to reduce population growth. An unreliable or marginal medical intervention can have decisive results on the population as a whole. Wearing masks probably falls into that category. Masks, handwashing and other precautions can reduce transmission below 1, which should extinguish the pandemic. It almost did that in Japan in 2020. Unfortunately, infections seem to asymptotically approach zero without getting to zero. I do not know why. The pandemic seems to "smoulder" at a low rate. As soon as you relax precautions, it springs back up. That is when the overall population has had few infections per capita and there is no herd immunity. That was the situation in Japan in 2020.



    * This method is advocated by the Catholic church which leads some cynics to call it "the Vatican roulette."

    In Canada they are having individuals do enforcement, thereby having them break several laws to implement vaccine passports. I went into the Police station today and asked them about this. The officer at the front was unsure of this new information. She was nice, but green.


    Facts:

    Every individual enforcing entry into an establishment by asking for vaccine verification is acting as a Public Officer (not a Police Officer).

    That is silly. In U.S. bars, they have to ask a young person for a driver's license to prove you are old enough to drink. In Atlanta grocery stores, they ask for driver's license before selling you any wine or beer. Even when you are old they have have to see the license. Are they acting as a Public Officer? Of course not!

    The thing you have to bear in mind regarding the graphs from Japan is that those peaks are small compared to other countries. The Delta peak on August 27 was 22,000 infections. The population of the U.S. is 2.6 times that of Japan, so that is the equivalent of 57,000 cases per day in the U.S. Nearly every day from July 2020 to the present, the U.S. has had far more cases than that. In other words, the worst day of the pandemic in Japan is about the same as an ordinary day in the U.S. The U.S. peaked at 250,000 cases in one day in January, and 190,000 in the Delta peak of September 1. It is presently at 89,000 per day. If you graphed Japan and the U.S. on the same scale per capita, there would be hardly any "peaks" in Japan. Just a few minor increases that were quickly squelched. In other words, it looks like things are under control.


    The events that caused those previous peaks were all known, as I said. Not just known; they were hotly debated in the mass media. The biggest controversy was the Olympics. Many protesters asked: "Do we really need this?" People said the Olympics were contributing to the Delta spike. There was no audience allowed into the stadiums during the games, but the protesters and the mass media claimed that people were gathering in bars and houses and watching the Olympics on TV. That seemed a little strange to me. Who would do that? No one I personally know. But anyway, part of the spike was blamed on that. Everyone knew that the main cause was Delta. While this was happening, I thought public health officials seemed a little too confident. Almost sanguine. "Nothing to see here, folks. We have this under control." It turns out they did have it under control. I have to hand it to them. Deaths stayed low, and the vaccine rollout went into high gear. The curve began to fall rapidly, as you see.