Posts by andrea.s

    Even when angry, THH is unable to be unpolite. The stupid argument that he is a troll is somewhat caused by the fact that he feels the compulsive need to debunk every single idiocy written here, which requires such an exceptional patience that it ends up being suspect. And a huge workload!

    All Hells Angels are joining in this but the British army with their machine guns is invited to join us too, Windsor chapter, the shout goes out. Diana's death was no accident, they put her down, the royal family is also enslaved by these spin doctors.Stand up and fight these wankers.

    Doc, are you OK? Another side effect of HCQ?

    Didn't anyone else see through the gobbledygook of the registry analysis in the Lancet report? This study was so large that any positive effects would be lost in the statistical analysis, becoming completely divorced from the reality of individual cases. Even if HCQ was completely 100℅ effective in half the cases (the other half dying due to it being given too late) such an effect would be lost in the background noise of the analysis. Sorry, this study is totally misleading, a RCT double blind trial of say 100 or so cases followed closely in the same clinical setting would be far more convincing either way. It is as effective as remdesivir, get over it pharma!

    I am an engineer with no qualification whatsoever in pharmacology and medicine. However let me ask. How can a trial over 100 people be conclusive in analyzing effectiveness of a drug over a disease that has a 1% death rate or IFR. Don't you need at least an order of magnitude larger sample? This was the obvious flaw in the original study by Raoult, bragging for the alleged 100% success of the cure over little above 20 people. It was a gamble to say "covid-19 game over", that even he retracted by adding a question mark at the end.

    This is brilliant. A conspiracy theory about THH (the various THHs) based on him (them) allegedly accusing others of believing conspiracy theories.

    If you die from cancer, and the government tallies every person who has a shred of DNA that signals a PCR-test positive, you are not a Covid death. A person who dies of what looks like respiratory failure due to covid while having cancer, now that would be a Covid death.


    The collectivizing of death into covid death -> we in fact call that fraud. Mass fraud is normal - > aluminum bodies can't penetrate thick steel beams.


    A test does not determine the cause of death, the doctor does. If you really investigate the PCR test isnt' even testing for the disease accurately, but that is another matter. To this there is no debate. A PCR test is not a bullet to the head I hope we can agree on this.

    With the desperate shortage of test reagents, what makes you think a test would be wasted on a dead cancer patient unless he showed Covid-19 symptoms leading to his death?


    The argument by Wyttenbach that statistics should not include people with a residual life expectancy of 3 months is a very personal viewpoint. Maybe valid in estimating impact on the yearly mortality. It is flawed if you look at weekly or monthly mortality. You can extract what you wish from data but hiding data and cherry picking are both unethical.

    [...] 2.7 million is plausible.

    We have now significant evidence that 0.5 to 0.7% IFR is plausible (NY state, Lombardy in Italy, Iceland).

    The US population being at 330 million, and assuming herd immunity is reached when 70% is immune, I world rather say 1.1 to 1.5 million. This is a number that could be reached asymptotically unless an effective cure and vaccine arrive. We can only slow it down.

    Doubt it. They count every death with a positive PCR test as a Covid death. Stage 4 cancer death + test -> Covid death. There are whistleblowers talking about this but hard to find. [most of you are scared to death on here because of fraudlent excel data - would you speak out if you could be fired because of it! No.]. I can't verify this guy, but he indicates in his facility any respiratory failure was Covid. Heart failure + Breathing problems -> Covid.


    People die folks. Manipulation is rampant.

    Come on Navid.

    "Stage 4 cancer death + test -> Covid death."

    Yes this is perfectly legitimate.

    If you shoot in the head a man with stage 4 cancer it is homicide and you get a death sentence (life sentence in civilized countries).

    If you drive with a passenger who has stage 4 cancer and you smash your car into a wall you both count equally as a road accident death.

    The few years or months of life expectancy left to a person with stage 4 cancer matter to them and their loved ones.

    In that case you are doubly blessed. It calls to mind a piece of English vernacular speech, where splitting the bill between diners in a restaurant is called 'going Dutch'.


    Oh. We say "facciamo alla Romana", i.e. "we do as the Romans do". I never interpreted that as a flattery, rather as pointing out that nobody offers you a free lunch in Rome.

    I agree on your points except 4. Only the tested cases were classified as Covid-19. This on the contrary left out of the statistics many deaths for which there were no means nor time to test.


    Lack of working healthcare yes, in spite of Lombardy being the best equipped region in Italy. But the spread was so exponentially fast that they had to prioritize who would get cured and sacrificed the elderly and those with little chance of survival. I am afraid the same applied to NYC and it definitely was the case in Wuhan.


    Finally yes, serology tests are key. Many kits are proving reliable, fast and very low cost, and massive testing will be the real weapon to understand and control the problem


    Iceland tested 12% of their population so they cannot be underestimating the positive cases that much. Their death rate is 0.5% over the tested positive. [...]. Let us say that they are underestimating cases by a factor 5: you end up with 0.1% mortality. If you can slow down the contagion to a constant rate and reach herd immunity in one year, it is < 0.1% population dying in 1 year on top of the 1.2% normal rate. In Italy it would be a toll of 60000 including 22000 already dead. [...]

    Please forgive my self quote. It is to say that 0.1% IFR is already contradicted by Lombardy region in Italy. Lombardy has 10M inhabitants and already 12,000 Covid-19 deaths. Extrapolations show the toll will reach 15,000 by end May. Positive cases are 66,000 out of 264,000 tests so far, i.e. 25% of the tested population. Let us suppose it would stay at 25% if all 10M were tested. At best (from the standpoint of IFR) we can imagine that there will be 15,000 casualties over 2.5M infections, i.e. IFR is not below 0.6%.


    Source

    http://m.statistichecovid19.it (I maintain this microsite) and therein recalled http://www.salute.gov.it/porta…ovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto

    [...] seems likely Trump will have his own way and open up the US to exponential pandemic growth.:)

    it seems to me that his spin doctors advised him to let the governors do as they deem right (because the right thing is painful) and rather bark and protest, as the laymen do. It will gain him a lot of credit.

    ... "The gamble is on the real mortality figures [post lock-down in Italy - quality matters]"

    Always a pleasure to read from my multilayered mathematician friend. Yes quality and discipline matter. And preparedness. In Italy we may use the third parameter as our excuse