There is now two clear camp, and seldom lukewarmers.
It seems the opinion are established, and others argument don't convince.
So maybe is it time to sit an wait for the judge.
There is now two clear camp, and seldom lukewarmers.
It seems the opinion are established, and others argument don't convince.
So maybe is it time to sit an wait for the judge.
Time to understand the problem:
The intuition for what I shall term the "Mutually Assured Delusion" (MAD) principle is simple. If others' blindness to bad news leads them to act in a way that is better for an agent than if they were well informed ; it makes those news not as bad, thus reducing his own incentive to engage in denial. But if their avoidance of reality makes things worse than if they reacted appropriately to the true state of affairs ; future prospects become even more ominous, increasing the incentive to look the other way and take refuge in wishful thinking. In the first case, individual's ways of thinking are strategic substitutes, in the latter they are strategic complements. It is worth emphasizing that this "psychological multiplier", less than 1 in the first case and greater in the second, arises even though agents' payoffs are separable and there is no scope for social learning.
The types of enterprises most prone to collective delusions are thus:
(a) Those involving new and complex technologies or products that combine a generally profitable upside with a lower-probability but potentially disastrous downside - a "black swan" event. High-powered incentives, such as performance bonuses affected by common market uncertainty, have similar effects, as do highly leveraged investments that put the
firm at risk of bankruptcy.
(b) Those in which participants have only limited exit options and, consequently, a lot riding on the soundness or folly of other's judgements. Such dependence typically arises from irreversible or illiquid sunk investments: specific human capital, company pension plan, professional reputation, etc. Alternatively, it could reflect the large-scale public good
nature of the problem: state of the economy, quality of the government or other society-wide institutions which a single individual has little power to affect, global warming, etc.
Not very clear or definitive...
Anyway you can explain much more by hearing the client.
the link seems dead, but I found the article
and an old post of David with the russian version
If confirmed it can change many things.
A theory paper
Péter Kálmán and Tamás Keszthelyi
Budapest University of Technology and Economics,
Institute of Physics,
Low energy nuclear processes that are strongly hindered by Coulomb repulsion between the reacting
nuclei, are investigated in solid environment. It is shown that the hindering effect may be
significantly weakened (practically it diappears) if one takes into account the Coulomb interaction
of one of the reacting particles with the surroundings. It is obtained that if the modification of the
wave function due to Coulomb interaction with charged constituents of the environment is taken into
account applying standard perturbation calculation of quantum mechanics then wave components
of high momentum with small amplitude are mixed to the initial wave of small momentum. To these
partial waves of high momentum much higher Coulomb factor can be attached that can drastically
increase the cross section. The mechanism (called recoil assistance) opens the door to a great variety
of nuclear processes that so far have been thought to have negligible rate at low energies. The recoil
assisted nuclear pd reaction is investigated like a sample reaction numerically. Low energy nuclear
reactions allowed by recoil assistance and leading to nuclear transmutations are partly overviewed.
Critical analysis of Fleischmann-Pons type low energy nuclear reaction experiments is presented too.
One technical point, about people "insulting each others"...
there are some way to use dirty words that kids should not use, and this is insults. It is forbidden here. POINT. thanks for those who stay clean.
Now when people disagree deeply on a subject, build theory about the other people to explain the disagreement, their opinion can be felt as insulting.
For example if you say Defkalion is genuine technology, you are insulting Luca Gamberale.
If you say Luca is right, you are insulting Defkalion's staff.
In fact it is not insult, it is deep critics, accusations, opinion having huge consequences.
If someone says I am paid by IH to spread FUD, I could interpret it as an insult... Or I can be sad because some one is so stuck to his beliefs in Rossi that to solve the cognitive dissonance he have to abandon past trust in my honesty...
So, don't feel insulted if someone say you are paid by alien lizard to destroy humanity... accept you hare facing someone building a theory, forced to consider you are paid by alien lizard. Accept also you may be wrong, and accept facts when evidences are shown... I know it s painful.
Don't hope you can convince the other camp. Best is to state your ideas clearly, calmly, so the lukewarmers get cooled.
I follow the ECW forum, and i see there are mostly supporters talking... But i know that lurkers have grown.
Only physicist try to convince the other in a debate.
You have to talk to the lurkers.
Talk to the 4th wall as we say on stage.
Is there something about who is the client?
Sorry JedRothwell , We don't need calorimetry.
I did not know that solar spots were linked to flu epidemia, but it is a long time knowledge that solar spot were linked with wheat price in England.
Explanation is simple, it is climate. I imagine flu is also related to cold weather like are high wheat price.
Lack of interest in a subject may be detected by lack of replication or publication, but delay can be explained by failures to replicate.
What I know from Galileo, is that even if he have good ideas, his evidences were quite weak , and he have many problems to explain. His instruments was very hard to use. Finally he was a very ideological activist and was attacked mostly for that.
Attack to LENR can be explained by many facts, from pathetic errors, experimental difficulties, wrong category of experimentator used as references, patent wars, budget fights, theoretical groupthink, incoherent answers to theoretical questions, awful communication, community battles, politicians involvement, journalist prides...
The "Biggest Question"?
As much as I enjoy your very intelligent comments on many blogs, I think you, (like many, many others on many blogs), are clearly losing focus.
None of this crap matters, not the pipe diameter, the exhaust fans, the emmisivity charts, the metallic sponge process, etc
The only thing that matters, the "Biggest Question" is:
Does Ecat produce Energy Out > Energy In?
Do you, Alainco, believe it does?
Just a simple Yes or no please, yes or no.
The answer to that question is absolutely linked to the question of the client being real, doing a real business.
If you don't know already the answer, you won't care of my opinion.
Don't trust my opinion, trust the evidences.
Biggest question is about the "client" and it's activity.
Best calorimetry is real business done.
If you make steam cakes for money, you can sure differentiate 20kW from 1MW.
About Utah, I know Cold Fusion and Novell netware.
Note that Fleischmann was a refugee in UK. and latter an academic refugee from Utah to France.
Jobs was the son of a Syrian refugee.
Einstein a refugee.
Mohamed Altrad, the creator of the biggest building tools company in France, is the fruit-of-rape son of a Syrian bedouin teen mother, who after fleeing to go to school, fled to France.
Opposition to trump in US is fortifying the resistance... For me he is the worst enemy of the ideas he defend... for what can be considered as an idea, and not a rant.
He is doing what Obama did quietly, so crazily that one day people will stop doing it.
Depending on the subject it can be good or bad.
About Science, my fear is that his call for minority report and dismissal of dominant consensus in science, will lead to an even more absolutist academic dogma, circling the wagon as they say, making 15th century catholic church looking as liberal.
Doing the same is not the best way to show your superiority.
Anyway, he beats you on papers about He4/Heat correlation.
There are gems in the mud, but not much in your's. this is where selective blindness to mudspray is an advantage.
You can do better I'm sure.
See no Evil, hear no evil, say no evil.
Check this out!!!
2016 BREAKTHROUGH PROPULSION WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS
Interesting and a bit exotic conference...
The proceedings is not dedicated to EmDrive but there are interesting article.
I've found articles by Paul March, Tajmar, and and appendix by JJA Rodal (F/P related to Q and sqrt(L) ) ...
I just remind that the worst danger is not technology but conservationism.
The link remind the difference between tradition (always recent and evolving) and fundamentalism (mythic).
If someone can save humanity from the delirium of some crazy conservationist, it will be CRISPR.
I know my position is not consensual.
Just to say LENR will be on their kill-list, like autonomous cars are already.
n NZ they are discussing using it to extinguish the house mouse by modifying DNA to create only males.
As I remember the Australian are also responsible of the disease, mixomatosis, that extinguishedthe rabbit in France (temporarilly, some resisted - anyway it was food bonus for many poor people there and thus a tragedy).
It seems the worst bio-warfare are caused by people trying to remove foreign species from their mythic ecosystem, whether it is mouse or rabbit. I'm afraid the cannon are targetted to the wrong side, if not by the trouble-makers themselves to the one who can solve it.
Big problem in any solution where coulomb barrier is lowered, like D2+ or my naive ideas, is the snap effect which release the 24MeV brutally...
I imagined it could be slowed down, like when I prevent two magnet to snap by putting my fingers between, but strong force magnet are much more strong than electric field fingers.
the core of strong froce is indeen at 0.7fm, but would it be possible a tiny lobe of quark wavefunction block penetration...
anyway to be near the nucleus at less than 10fm is already a miracle, but less than not emitting energetic particles.
The key is in the slowness of the fusion, not in the barrier breaking.
I had another crazy idea.
To implement my idea of slow fusion, one possibility could be that the strong force potential be "comb"-shaped, because the the wavefunction comb-shaped.
even possible that the two protons show the same respective comb, that interacts.
Non-regular comb potential which interact , maybe far away
having a comb-shaped potential is not uncommon in material science, but protons are so far naturally, so small, and electrons so annoyingly different that it seems crazy...
alternative is to follow the Takahashi's ideas, which are not incompatible with Storms method...
After all, Storms only conclude the NAE is where the reaction happens, is exceptional, near surface.
Storms proposes hydroton in crack because it seems the simplest possibility for a metallurgist point of view..
Another key in Takahashi's idea is that, if hydroton-like structure exists, it can only be explained by huge interaction with the metallic context of the crack.
Takahashi also remind that electrons cannot be dense near the nucleus because they have long wavelength compared to nuclei. Few more "it's impossible" on the list.
IH owns licens to use E-cat technology in half of the world economic space.
IH have huge incentive to stay lawful to expect being able to use the technology, if real. At worst if they did not recieve the IP they need they have to call the help of law to be delivered.
Rossi as you say have a huge incentive to be lawful if he have a techn
If E-cat is real what is happening is irrational.
Your reasoning seems unavoidable.
The "snap effect" prevent a slow fusion in a two body mode. If a snap happen, the energy will be released brutally.
Alan push an alternative, nuclei are delocalized, at least some quarks are...
Digging in conjectures...
Only way to avoid the snap effect is to have a very local opposing force (usually with magnets it is my fingers who play the counter potential).
Strong force can be opposing... In some article I don't understand much, I've read that the core potential tower of strong force is due to W boson exchanges... Can electrons screening ineract with nuclei, to make the core potential stronger ?
Opposing force may come from positivey charged particle orbiting near the nucleus... crazy.
Maybe a strange lobe of nucleus wave...
if you think in 1D constrained system, the lobe may be very local...
Funny how all seems impossible.
Again experiments are needed to clear out the impossible and orient to feasible ideas matching reality.
One big question for LENR is if direct conversion is possible...
One direct conversion from nuclear energy to electricity is betavoltaic.
I've just heard of that work in 2016 by Moscow University of science and technology "MISiS"...
I've found a paper, that seems related
I've heard of similar work in US/EU zone.
oh lala ... I don't catch all...
I won't claim I know what is LENR, at best report experimental results, and discuss inside hypothesis.
Note that my idea of coulomb barrier is that it cannot fall brutally. It would cause hot fusion, point, with 24MeV energy dissipated quickly ... Some propose a dissipation or screening method, but I propose that once 24MeV are out, they make noise. Same for neutrons...
Inside that hypothesis, proposing that smaller keV quantum come from potential energy of fusion, I propose the barrier fall slowly, like a chinese torture...
My remarks is that it is not easy to explain...
Of course to have the (probably electronic) screening slowly grow, probably imply some collective effect. No few body effect can explain that.
Each time the screening grow, nuclei get nearer, strong force free some energy... nearly nothing below 10fm, and then much faster around 1fm...
I see those steps as permutation in a box, like elastic quantum ball in a compressed box... like doped semiconductors where hole propagate, meet...
I know my Stormian hypothesis put huge constraints...
Energy come from the strong force accumulated in d-d nuclei, but not in one step.... in thousands of steps! Slow fusion, Chinese torture, the longer the better...
The idea that palladium helps because it is heavier, is great, but I cannot imagine the details...
the importance of metallic electrons (conduction band) is probably a key, but deep orbits of palladium, or DDL of deuterium, may give a trick.
Interesting family of ideas...
Problem is I cannot follow complex mechanism... Just macro-ideas...
collective story of electrons, especially in "metals" , and once you know PdDx (x>0.9) is superconductor, seems a good direction.
To understand how impossible are my naive ideas I've look at Strong force theory...
I found the Yukawa potential, some numbers, and some curves...
as I understand the Yukawa radius is about 1.5fm, and below 0.8 some interaction is repulsive ...
max negative potential is 100MeV at 0.8fm, but at 1.5fM it is about 25MeV
potential is of shape
if one follow my idea, that lowering coulomb screening allows strong force to pull the remote nucleon,
the first transition from 0 to -50keV is around 8fm
this is incredibly near and assume a huge coulomb screening...
even worse, for the last transition to -24MeV, to avoid radiating more than 50keV last move is of 1/1000 of R0, which mean a small step down of 1/1000th of the coulomb barrier...
if the step is the same in term of coulomb potential, this mean 5000 steps, from 7fm to 1.5fm with the first transition being much below the keV...
However, if you accept small dose of high energy X-rays (when nuclei are near), but majority below 50keV it is more compatible...
This is kid calculus, but it shows that this kind of ideas are not easy to bolt...
In my idea, something is moving the coulomb screen step by step, and maybe the noise of that moving can be heard.
maybe is it the RF noise.
Maybe the step is the adoption of new electrons in the collectivity... or something crazy like that.
To test my ideas, one would need to measure the X-ray spectrum, eventually some anisotropy of X-rays (colimated, coherent)...
RF/THz maybe correlated with X-rays pulses, if the RF is linked to screen change ?
My ideas are maybe broken, but it gives things to measure.
I understand more and more why new physics or denial are much more comfortable, than theory-conservatism and experimental-realism.
About hints that X-rays could give about the size of the reacting zone,
Hagelstein in JCMNS vol 22 remind us the Karabut experiment, glow discharge LENR and observation of collimated 1.5keV X-rays.
Karabut and his coworkers at the Luch Institute reported the observation of excess heat and other anomalies in glow
discharge experiments in the early 1990s . In subsequent experiments Karabut noticed that soft X-rays near 1.5 keV
were emitted, and that they were collimated upward in his experiment normal to the cathode surface . This effect
was studied for more than a decade [3–10], and was found to be independent of the cathode metal (the effect was
seen with Al, and with other metals through W), also to be independent of which discharge gas was used (collimated
emission was seen with H2, D2, He, Ne, Ar and Xe).
The comments of Hagelstein, who is an expert in X-ray LASER, start by the usual depressing warnings...
He then propose an alternative to LASER effect, phased array emission...
As I understand he does not talk of LENR but suspect 201Hg is the emitter ...
New ideas to analyse, new "its impossible"... Possible mechanism?
NB: 1.5keV is quite large wave, about 8 angstroem...
anyway, beside Karabut, is there évidences of collimated X-rays in LENR experiments?
I think Ed is calling for that tests.
Looking for paper on RF emission I found this 2016 paper
from JCMNS vol19...
I don't think it was discussed here
There is a small literature on the combination of low energy nuclear reactions (LENR) experiments and radiofrequencies (RF).
The papers are worth attention in case they can teach anything about the mechanisms behind LENR. Application of RF to LENR
electrochemical cells in the mid-1990s clearly showed increases in the production of excess power. More recently, RF have been
measured in LENR cells. However, it is still possible that those data are artifacts of the operation of the system, and not indicative of
LENR. It has been suggested that the appearance of RF in LENR experiments is the cause of LENR, and not merely a manifestation
of such reactions. That possibility has significant implications. In the present paper, we summarize and analyze the results obtained
by different research groups concerning the application and emission of RF in the kHz to GHz range associated with heat production
during electrochemical loading of deuterium into palladium
The citations may be of high interest too.
In the same vein I found this 2015 paper from NRL.
Palladium foil cathodes were electrochemically loaded with deuterium from alkaline solutions of heavy water in specially designed closed calorimeter cells. Here, one cell is described that showed low levels of constant heat (1-7 mW) and radio frequency (RF) emanations, but the RF was not correlated with the heat produc-tion. This cell is compared with Pd90Rh10 alloy cath-odes that showed excess energy bursts of 2.4-44.3 kJ. In these cells, RF coincident with the bursts was observed peaking at different frequencies from about 450 kHz and extending into the MHz range. Some of the excess energy production in LENR may be in the MHz RF range, which has no conventional explana-tion in electrochemistry.
As usual many interesting papers.
A team in ukraine (Savrasov,Prokopenko,Andreev) reproduced CR39 experiment popularized by SPAWAR (in fact it is a child of GALILEO project)
There have succes and failures, but they interpret the failures as evidence it is not background. A point to keep in mind when interpreting failures.
Jacques RUER publish an extended English version based on his presentation in RNBE2016 (published in JCMNS vol 21), with new section added, explaining concepts like COP, gain, the various kind of reactors mode, control problems, and proposal of architecture. He then propose some configuration, various mode of cooling, and of conversion like LENR+Ericsson/Stirling-engine, +Brayton/Rankine turbine.
Very interesting to understand some claims of COP (like Brillouin gain=/= COP), or expectation for applications, of difficulties...
There is a theoretical paper with researshers of indonesia and Ukraine. I think is was presneted earlier here...
there is a paper on NANOR by Swartz.
He apply some magnetic pulse. ( This is not new, and I remember such test with Dennis letts, and later with Violante ) and analys the "small to significant increase gain in activity", but in some condition 4x to 10x better. He notice remnant effects...
Quite uncommon in JCMNS, Verner,Swarts, and Hagelstein wrote a paper about how tomake a LENR course like their IAP Cold Fusion 101... Education is a subject.
there is a theory paper by hagelstein about Karabut experimeng, and observed Colimated 1.5keV X-rays.
I'l just add a point that scratch me.
In my vision, energy is emitted before the fusion.
It is probably because the coulomb barrier is weakening and some nuclei feel beneficial (gibbs energy) to get to a new state, and release an x-ray. I naively see that only possible if the coulomb barrier is pinched and strong force start to pull the nucleus a little ...
how far can it be for 10-50keV energy release ? it must be very near ?
then the process have to continue by small steps, until the 24MeV are consumed?
LENR is impossible
You reasoning seems rational.
if Coulomb barier is broken ther will be huge energy release, not even the 24MeV, but even just the barrier backyard...
With my image of "leaking", the coulomb force may have some cracks, because of resonance ?
letting the nucleus leak some of their fingers (wavefunction lobe)...
how can the wavefunction spread so far, even with resonance (but what interaction can resonate?)... or can they be so near to slightly react ? without Coulomb opposing...
Some tricks to find... coherence? non linearities like Dubinko LAV....
let us imagine nucleus
* nucleus are behaving collectively, dancing in same rhythm, because no choice/no freedom, and all dissenting/individualist modes decayed already
* why not some unusual pseudo particle associating nucleus and electron, but not an atom (a 1D atom or something crazy like that)... emerging like a cooper pair, from the lattice constraints.
* locked geometrically, having few freedom to move
* coulomb barrier weakened at some angle, because of subtle resonance, maybe part of the time only
* some tunneling, slightly allow some strong/weak interaction, not much (keV), but some (is it impossible to have strong force interaction of keV? unless something strange happens... pseudo particle?)
* stimulated transitions triggered onto many other nucleus (is it possible? does LASER stimulated emission increase probability of transition... I don't know LASER seriously)... why not 24MeV emitted among many transitions... eg 1000x24keV
* non radiative transition from a collective state to a fused classical state (is it possible?) of same energy
tons of "if", and of improbable ...
I suspect there is a dozen of reason why it is impossible.
I cannot imagine Coulomb barrier is reduced if not because of collective effect.
I cannot imagine keV radiation are not emitted because of a collective effect
But how does the collective outcome of previous phase end in a classical He4 state ?
just for those who are more competent...
Imagine you have 1000 deuterium in something like an hydroton...
now imagine that they ALL decay in LASER mode with 1000 12keV photons pairs, each, producing ttal 24GeV and 1000 He4... how would react the lattice to that energy released in femto/nano-seconds? what would be detected ?
Ed have talk about detected colimated X-rays as evidences...
Could it explains the RF 80GHz observed by ENEA ?
maze of impossibility and crazy guess.
anyway something is happening.
The lack of PDF is probably only because a delay to upload the documents on their servers...
It was missing the morning of the date of publication, and it was there the afternoon.
I appreciate the habits of US to make public documents free to read.
This is a very bad habit in France to paywall the public documents (like standards, registers...), hopefully declining.
I am so surprised by your answer
My quick computation for wavelength of 50keV Xrays is 1/4 of angstroem (25pm),
but it is not clear if 50keV is the hard limit. it may be lower
The lattice constant of beta phase is said to be just above 4 angstroem (>410pm), while the d nucleus is above 2 femtometer
If I follow your reasoning, the reaction zone is thus big compared to the nucleus, but one order below the atom size, the lattice parameter...
It was not working this morning, but it is fine now.
Maybe it can be replicated, but it seems to requires good lab technology for vaccuum.
Radioactive ingredients should be avoided to ease the test, and the test should be repurposed...