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AlainCo Tech-watcher, admin
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  • from Villejuif
  • Member since Feb 9th 2014

Posts by AlainCo

    The claims seems quite simple


    A metallic hydride irradiated by microwave to melt the metal...

    What is happening is a pain to me, but I hope it will end soon... maybe...


    When I was kid, I have been raised in green momentum, educated about the Minamata tragedy (much more real than Fukushima), the Redsludge risk, dangerous chemical in food... Much work have been done in the 70s for a safer world. I am conscious of all the good work, which make my air , the river I can now bath in, the sea I can fish in, much cleaner than in the 1960s, and of course in the 1900s.
    And as one founder of Greenpeace said, like we see in many religion, in the 90s (with Berlin Wall fall?) the organizations quickly radicalized toward Luddite and Malthusian philosophy.*
    All that way of mind is contaminating public organizations, like UNO, media, politicians, and let's laugh even the terrorists.


    Cold fusion may, but it is not sure, have the capability to change that depressive mood.


    First, cold fusion, for the best and I'm afraid the worst too, will challenge the consensus, the "science is settled", the "trusts us"... But I'ma afraid that the rats will take advantage more quickly than the cows. That pseudo-science, conspiracy theories, will grow quicker than the mainstream conspiracy theories and pseudo-science will be fixed.


    Second, cold fusion will give more comfort, first to the emerging countries. This will make a huge shock of positivism. I imagine that since the Luddites and the Malthusians control the West, the will not take advantage quickly of LENR... Letting the Asian, African and Latin American emerging countries, take the lead on global economics.
    Those countries are more positive. I can observe the elites there , the local bourgeoisie, is very much contaminated by Western Malthusian depression (less by Luddites), but those countries can pass over their elite, creating innovation from the bottom.


    So my bet is that LENR will pust to the top the Asian, then African economies, making them the new "America", a dynamic zone of free enterprise, innovation, for courageous people, with a huge growth, huge challenges...


    China is not my best bet today as it have governance problems which make it a too big to save system.
    I have more hope in weakly governed countries like Indonesia, which allow expression of internal dissent, avoiding catastrophic risks. This country is rich, complex, varied, making it a ground of opportunities where problems have to be solved and cannot be hidden.
    Africa is really the next Dragon after Indonesia, a very complex zone, whose future is impossible to predict because it is complex like dozens of Europes and Chinas.
    South America is intermediate from Western and Asia, and I expect it to join Western countries from bottom as West is collapsing, but not grow higher like Asia.

    right, except if there is a revolt...
    Today , beside LENR, is a strange period... the end of an era. I think that the stories we hear everywhere are total BS, but if we hear it it is because there is another real problem.


    3D printers, e-Bay/uber/airBnB kind of peer to peer services, seems to be the tools to make a revolution.
    like the steam machine have freed the peasant slave (serf) from the Lord.
    Now the free peasant is more educated but surrendering part of his freedom to a centralized organization called the company, the factory...
    Future probably is a market/network like Uber or airBnB...
    LENR-CHP can also participate that peer-to-peer economy.


    an author, in france, propose this kind of evolution toward "contributism"
    http://thierrycurty.fr/la-tran…ocietale-est-ineluctable/


    I don't agree with all he says, technically, about current challenge. Clearly I don't follow the mainstream fears, but I feel a more serious psychiatric problems currently, not a material problem that goes beyond our capabilities as humans.
    There is a strong demand of individuality, but in a social context, which bring a model based on "liberal/free-market" ideas, with a collective/social/community "tint". It seems to be not far from contributism...
    For me it looks like small business in emerging country communities, a mix of free market, with some care of your neighbours, because the state does few. AirBnb, E-bay, Uber are digital equivalent of what you find in emerging country communities.

    nationalize losses is a possibility, but at which price ? if too much money it will be shocking for the people.


    another solution, is to give them a partial monopoly on LENR.
    another is to bankrupt the company and save the people, even the executives. This last is the humanist free-market way of mind... save the people, not the company.
    now the bankruptcy of top stocks may have a systemic effect like Lehman Brothers... but LENr will have a good effect too, even better, but not on the top Stocks.


    I don't know if there is good solution... but bailing the oil companies to bury them is not so popular

    The article is clearly moderate about claims, but standing on it.


    There is a photo (by Mats) of an E-cat that did not produce heat in september 2012. So clearly it is not saying that this affair is simple.


    Google translates works for me

    it is a very limited commitment in E-cat technology, just claiming they have interesting indication that deserve more investigation.


    In a way just claiming it deserve more investigation is spotting the irrationality of usual deniers who answers : "DONT'T LOOK INTO THE TELESCOPE" (for fear to see the Jupiter's moons).


    In a small article Sifferkoll tell us that Sylvie Coyaud have revealed the location of E-cat latest 3rd party test : in Lugano, Switzerland.


    He also raise very nasty and interesting question :

    Quote

    maybe Swedish taxpayers paid more for the SR/Hansson/Björksten crusade than for everything else related to LENR since 1989… hmm, kind of interesting…


    Finally he continue questioning the "team" of Björksten/Hansson/Coyaud

    Quote

    They seem to share a common interest in the political power of the environmentalists.

    .


    LENR community have raised concern since long on vested interest in oil companies.
    I don't share this vision, based on the active participation of some oil companies like Amoco, Shell, and recently SAIPEM/ENI, to LENR research and conferences. Various corporations like Toyota, Mitsubishi, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, ST Micro, National instruments, show some interest in LENR and seems more to suffer from academic terrorism than from corporate black suits.


    This terrorism will disappear like Berlin wall and Lysenkoism soon. However the political opposition of those who bet on the wrong horses, the lobbies of the soon to be buried energies, the soon to be buried ideologies of scarcity, and the workers union of dead energies, will be our next enemies. They have big budget, maybe bigger than Exxon PR, because it is taxpayer's and donator's money, not shareholder's money, and because they are desperate to die with no hope to benefit.


    Maybe our mission will be to find them an exit strategy, different from frontal opposition.


    Finding a way for workers union, the green businessmen and workers, to accept the disruptive revolution, the workers retraining...
    Finding an environmental discourse that give hope, gives a mission of environmentalist to accompany the clean transition transition, carefully not saying they were wrong.


    One rule toward acceptation, when you face an economic rent, is to buy it, exchange it, not to kill it.

    The engineering of LENR is not easy. Neither was engineering of fission, of A-Bomb, of HTSC, of transistor... from the first discoveries, the denial period that every body have forgotten, then the early official discovery; then the first bad products that seldom worked, then the second phase of discovery of the challenges, then reliability, then improvement, then industry, then new challenges...


    From invention (which follow decades of denial as usual) and crazy dreams, to first marketing of a modest deceiving product, there is normally 5 years... during those 5 years, the supporter imagine that it will be OK in next 6 month...


    E-cat was discovered around 2009-2011, so market reach is about 2014-2016... a bit early today.


    a negative scenario, the worst imaginable from data we have is, that E-cat have a modest COP to prevent it to be unstable, and that trying to insert it into a thermal exchanger (steam, oil) make it even more unstable...
    It will be a physicist A-bomb, but industrially it will be only hope of improvement.


    The paradox is that knowing the psychiatry of academics and of businessman, my prediction is that in that worst case, the physicist will moan that it is not an industrial tea kettle good enough to admit they are clearly anti-science gang and clearly incompetent, while all the businessmen and corporate executive on the planet will take the unusable prototype as the undeniable evidence there is a disruptive revolution in process, freezing all markets, investing trillion in haste to compete and improve...


    In a way this mean the game is won. because in few semester, the crowd of businessmen will have launched a thousands E-cat project, Brillouin-project (many Defkalion too), and that soon one clone of Rossi will find by burning his finger the good way to make LENR stable and usable.

    Sifferkol, a Swedish blogger propose an interesting interpretation of recent charge of the Swedish public Radio against E-cat and cold fusion.
    The author judge that this attack is launched by Ulrika Björksten (the "boss" of the program), who use her power in that media to fight this disruptive change, this clean energy, that endanger current green business agenda.


    As not understanding Swedish, nor living in Sweden, unlike the author, I cannot judge of the personality, the past behaviors, the activism, the body language, nor the interest of Ulrika Björksten.


    However as an observer of french politics, of European politics, of Global dynamics around research, green business, NGO, politics, I have warned people of that profile of "Misguided Environmentalist". We should prepare to fight people who in the name of clean planet will fight LENR, not because it is dirty, but because it is fighting their old vision of green energy, of Malthusian solutions.


    The physicists who opposed violently the chemistry finding of Fleischmann&Pons were honest scientists who have fallen in love with their two-body free-space model of nuclear physics, and it's comfortable road to academic recognition and peer-satisfaction.


    Many LENR theorist slowed LENR development, and brought avoidable ridicule to LENR by falling in love with their pet theory.


    The next rank of opposition will be environmental activists who have fallen in love with green energies and Malthusians scarcity. The battle will be fierce since they control media and moral authority. They will defend their business share, their vote share, and finally their public recognition.


    I'm much less afraid of the barbarian herd of business incumbent, who will scatter at the first hope to make more money than their neighbor by endorsing LENR.


    As says Nassim Nicholas Taleb : " I trust those hungry for dollars a thousand times more than those hungry for honors and rank. "




    well said.


    The worst is that it is endangering all current consensus, for good and bad reasons, as any people claiming he challenge academic consensus, will comfortably use Cold Fusion tragedy as an example of misguided consensus... It may raise interest on some controversial but interesting ideas, but may also give excuses for old scam and pseudo-medicine, pseudo-fears, to flourish again.

    It have done a good job since 20th century anyway...
    but things pass. gasoline replace cola, who replaced wood and horse, who replaced beef, who replaced slaves...
    What is a bubble is energy that is subsidized, not for research only but for production, and have never been cost effective nor even environmentally efficient.


    Oild industry will survive some time, but coal will suffer much as LENR is direct competitor, and coal is the worst energy.

    Magnus Olofsson, boss of Elforsk have answered in a short press release to the attacks of the Swedish radio Sveriges Radio.


    He state what elforsk have done, like supporting the 2013 test.
    He clearly don't commit in being sure E-cat is real, but state that no combustion can explain the result.


    His position as that even if there is a risk to be wrong, their mission is to investigate, and to "prepare the companies in the energy sector on potential breakthroughs and build the necessary knowledge to challenge or affirm further development".


    This is exactly what you should expect from a very prudent company, a rational fearsome business...
    "We are sure of nothing, but we prepare for all, and sure we investigate what can be real or not'"


    As Mats explained in his answer, it is absolutely irrational, plain stupid, not to investigate on something that is clearly proven "possibly real, even if possibly false". When a general system like that academic science , the media, the business, have such a behavior it raise a red flag of massive groupthink.


    Even if LENR is false, that mainstream refuse to investigate is an error in itself, a sign a psychiatric problem, of Groupthink.


    After the serie of radio broadcast against E-cat by Sveriges Radio, where Mats Tewan was interviewed but cut following the worst methods of bad journalism.
    He answers to that article explaining the structure and the way of mind of Marcus Hansson, the responsible of the investigation.


    It explain the manichean way of mind of the journalist, and the way he miss many basic facts about italy, Elrosk...


    He also charge against the presentation of Fleischmann & Pons discovery as a proven failure, while it is all but the opposite. Not only F&P were replicated and Mats give link to the list of 153 peer-review papers, but talk of the positive review.


    He question why more research is not done on that subject, even if some may raise question, because there is more than doubt of that subject being interesting.


    He also express his critics agains the editor who mixed the rational question agains E-cat and Adrea Rossi and the general domain of Cold Fusion , aka LENR.


    For me this last point is the key point. there is no doubt that the dismissal of E-cat have nothing to do agains Rossi, E-cat... It have all tod do with the initian pathetic dismissal of cold Fusion by physicistssocieties, Nobel, media, high impact scientific journals, while they have not the least tiny evidence of any artifact in Fleischmann&Pons work, nor in the hundreds of replications done accross the planet with dozens of various protocols.


    Denying E-cat is not the problem. The key fact is not to admit that respected outspoken nuclear physicist, Nobel price winners, high-impact journal, DoE and other state agencies, scientific and academic societies, Ivy Leagues universities, have screwed up in the same ways as Lysenkoism pushed all Soviet science to screw up, despite all the evidence are public and non ambiguous for anyone unbiased, and worst of all that this happen regularly, and that we have all the theoretical toolbox to explain how it happens.



    I only block kitchen.


    E-cat is not secret, we talk of it and there is report.
    Cold fusion is public, and there are many papers that no deniers read.


    I am promoting, reality...
    I have made mistake, but at least I recognised it when I had evidence...


    do you have evidence that Fleischman & Pons calorimetry is an artifact ?
    I've asked to many people, like S Coyaud.
    I even asked Stephan Pomp and he answered none...
    He just refused to read the book of charles Beaudette.


    Did you read it?


    Did you read the book of Mats?


    As far as all skeptics I contacted don't answered to me, they have nothing.


    NB: please, no trolling like insults and childish behaviors (I don't moderate because it is information)...

    swedish reader corrected, It is not s state radio, but a foundation...


    there is 2 other episode planned.
    it seems a desperate counterfire against the book of mats Lewan.


    My conviction is that all peoples supporting that are absolutely sincere (honest like a desperate believer), and absolutely misinformed by their own lies, their own incapacity to read dissenting data.


    I try to seed informations in readers brains, but the skeptic leader like Pomp (the one of Pomp&Ericsson shameful paper ) are inaccessible to facts.


    in fact after reading the book of beaudette, and Kuhn review I think I have understood the tragedy. Very simple.


    F&P were chemist and found an anomaly, that they measured with a chemistry competence : calorimetry.
    They fooled themselves with particle detection, but still today their calorimetry is unquestionable and replicated.


    The problem was that if it was hot fusion there would be particles. They imagined they found it, but as nuclear physicist are incompetent in calorimetry, chemist are in particle detection.


    When physicists and chemists looked at that experiment, they simply observed that there was incoherence between: calorimetry, particle detection, and common interpretation of theory...


    The chemist like F&P or Bockris, concluded that since you could not challenge calorimetry which is solid science based on thermodynamics, and that chemist don't challenge evidence even of physics, you had to challenge the theory. they are used to that since they frequently change theory in chemistry.



    For the physicist, since they were sure of the detection because they did it themselves, and because they have a long experience of working theory and a huge ego, their deduction was that they could not have interpreted the theory badly and thus the calorimetry was wrong. An indeed their calorimetry was wrong, because they were incompetent. They also did not consider that the theory could be right, yet they could interpret it wrongly, as it is impossible to be wrong and physicist in their paradigm.


    their conclusion was that chemist were incompetent, and it was sure because otherwise they theory could only be wrong nor they interpreting it. Chemist incompetence in their key competence was more probable in their paradigm than a wrong theory, or an incompletely understood theory.


    since physicists have more budget, more political networks, longer contracts, since they were the heroes of Manhattan Project, they were more convincing to media, to politicians, to high-impact journals.


    So the official story is :

    • chemist are incompetent in calorimetry
    • physicist are good in all experiments
    • theory is right, and physicist know all of it


    all the rest is glue to justify the conclusion... like claimed imaginary artifacts, like incompatibility of LENR with theory, like peer review questions, invalid langmuir myth, inverted popper argument... They interpreted consequence of their harassment as proof of being right....


    The most shocking is among the few people who observed LENR and could not deny it there was a massive "physicists" behavior to create "new physics", because even if you believe in LENR, you cannot believe that you missed something in plain old theory that allow LENR.
    The desire to have a theory today is so great that you see clearly that they miss 70% of LENr experimental results in their claims.


    I see how much most lENr supporters start by looking for a pet theory, not so interested by evidences... they often argument with a pet theory, and not evidences... It is the new paradigm we find in current century : that model and theory are proving more than experiments. the physicist paradigm, that you find in many science and business domain today.


    This is why I have much respect for Edmund Storm approach, who basically says that LENR respect known physics, known chemistry, known thermodynamics, and is just another phenomenon inside the old model.


    All the effort to deny the LENR industrialists, is only justified because it challenge that scientific consensus. Sometime it is justified, sometime it is not, but who cares, all have to be fake or the world will collapse without a theory, like dying without a tomb.


    There is nothing about fraud, or oil conspiracy, it is only to protect the myth that physicist know all theory inside the standard model, and that chemist cannot challenge them with dirty experiments and old fashioned calorimetry. It is a "religious" problem, a social hierarchy problem.


    we are observing pure religious deniers like anti-Darwin, lysenkoist...
    Lobbies (renewable, malthusians, fossil) will wake up afterward when the solution will be accepted.

    It is right that without disclosur he cannot have a patent.
    He can file a patent and avoid disclosure for 18 month... so if serious people like Cherokee filed some real patent (I agree his current patent is junk), after the partnership which was advertized early 2014, then we may discover it only mid 2015.


    We don't know much, except that a third party test was allowed, that they were alone with the device, they rewired, they could cut the earth, they could install instruments, make calibration of IR cam with thermocouple, touching the device to install known-emissivity dots...


    The result that the 7 scientists signed was that it was visibly working.


    What we know thus, is that something is producing more heat that anything chemical can, much more, about as much as what a nuclear reactor produce.


    It can be alien technology, black magic... nothing oppose to those hypothesis except known physics. LENR is validated by thousands of experiments replicated across the planet, so it is a good candidate, beside it is Rossi's claims.


    It may be interesting to look for weak point in the test, in the protocol, but at least given the evidence available, it would be rational to start on the hypothesis that it works "very probably".



    In fact that it is not the case is very interesting, yet not at all a surprise. it shows that in that affair critics are far from rational. The "It is a fraud" claimed without any probability behind, nor any positive evidence, is a usual sign of desperate denial, the mirror phenomenon of "true beliefs".


    Rational people could say : we are not 100% sure, because...
    Because what ? because Levi who have a career is participating a scam and manipulated 6 colleagues.
    Because rossi took the risk of a third party test where he is not present, doing a fraud that an electrician could detect in 5 minutes.
    Because Elforsk did not check the test was done and checked by independent people
    Because cherokee fund missed it's Due Diligence, despite claiming that beside the Elforsk-funded test they send their own experts to cross check.


    So question is whether there is serious reason to be sure less than 100%... it is a rational question, whose answer is not evident because many point are addressed, yet there is hole (DC offset, Levi's participation) that are covered by assumption of human logic (that Rossi is not stupid enough to allow a test where others testers can detect it in 5 minutes) that can be discussed.


    Simply being sure it is a fraud, despite evidences, is not rational. It is symptom of "true believers".


    We could just discuss of the hypothesis of fraud scenarios...

    • The DC offset hidden by Levi's participation into a 3 years conspiracy, with manipulations of his 6 colleagues during the test

    For others they are addressed as far as I know.