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AlainCo Tech-watcher, admin
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  • Member since Feb 9th 2014

Posts by AlainCo

    does anyone attended this conference (found by Samwell on ECW)
    http://www.rattvik.se/bo-hoistad__158528


    oh, it is not a serious comment I agree...
    I was more noticing his good mood...:D
    your hypothesis is more rational.


    I noticed that skeptics are working harder those days... preparing for D-Day.


    A game for us would be to guess the arguments they will find to deny the test :

    • Levi still in the team (good for conspiracy way of mind. one black sheep in a team kill all the team...)
      • a backup solution if Levi is not in, is that any tester who participated the previous test (a fake, because it was sure a fraud) participate the new test..
    • not flow calorimetry (absurd, but works well with incompetent people)
    • Mary raised the missing "expert in heat transfert" (it seems the team included competent physicist, having done similar test before, but maybe theyr were not named so - at least the team was more competent than Pomp& Eriksson)
    • Black box test cannot be accepted (absurdity, but works well)
    • challenge on the input ...

      • like DC offset, HF theory...
      • that Levi have tricked the firmware of the wattmeter.
      • hidden wires, coaxial cables...
      • all hard to accept if the test was done in an independent place
        • but maybe will corrupt all the lab... all what Levi could touch will became stage magic
    • Corruption of the lab
      • by Levi contact the lab will be tricked
      • bought by Rossi, cherokee, Elforsk, or any LENR lab like navy, NASA...

    Could you add some of those arguments... at the end we could see what is used?

    I have received the book of Mats Lewan "An Impossible Invention" and I have read the first chapters on Rossi's youth and previous to LENR business.


    Those chapters are very interesting as they draw a coherent vision of the Petroldragon and the Seebeck converters stories.


    For example I learned that the trouble with petroldragon started very early in 1987, when law passed that was declaring that any product of waste (like his bio-fuel) was a waste and needed a permit . However he continued his projects and in 1990 he bought the Omar refinery to transform his "crude bio-fuel" into refined bio-fuel. In 1994-1995 rossi was pursued because he was treating wastes without a permit.
    the legal trick was that the new laws was declaring that any product of waste treatment, especially anything that could be burned as fuel, could not be treated as a fuel but as a waste requiring special treatment.


    So there is no doubt that there was no fuel in Omar refinery, since all the bio-fuel was legally a waste.


    What is more surprising is the cost of the waste remediation which was huge, with I noticed from some newspaper article, some sabotage that would only profit the cleaning companies... known to be related to Mafia.


    Mats also remind us that there was no internet to allow independent news, and that when at that time, like for cold fusion, if few influential newspapers decided to kill you, you were dead.


    He report also the content of some accusation against Rossi about gold smuggling, which was based on nothing because papers were right he said.


    About the thermoelectric converters, it was a group work with LTI. The 100W power was measured at University of Manchester.
    Later it was not a factory, but his house in Manchester which burned. it burned his notes, which forced him to ask other companie to develop a simpler version.


    Finally his only sentence was related to the bankruptcy.
    He passed less than 6 month in (pre-trial) prison in the 90s, but about 1 year in 2000-2001, which allowed him to develop his LENR research...


    the story is more coherent than what i reconstituted from various sources, and raise many factual errors by Wikipravda and the skeptics, while matching the key data they use to accuse him of fraud...


    You can accept Rossi's version or not, but rossi have a coherent story , unlike most of the skeptics one.

    It is clear that before a listing in a stock exchange there is a need of good undeniable testing report by third party.
    Given the most optimistic position by Defkalion itself, it cannot happen before that summer, after their "reactor commissioning".


    Xanthoulis have a long record of being overoptimistic and making unrealized announce to journalists.


    My only optimism today is that I was feeling the same about Rossi in 2011. Now he have a correct testing report, credible support by a national energy agency, solid funding by a mainstream energy fund.

    • One key to understand the situation is first that defkalion is a humans structure, made of various people : the prominent actors here are the CEO and the CTO, with very different characters. Many incoherence can be understood by admitting that a company is not a single being, a single voice, but a complex human structure.
    • Second, startup companies mostly crash, while only few makes a revolution. Often big innovation grow over the ruins of a dead startup.
    • Third point is that innovation takes much longer that even the inventors and investor, imagine. It is classical that innovators imagine it will take 6 month,while it takes usually 5 years. Rossi, if you add 1-2 years of more engineering, and sales, will reach that 5 years delay: 2015. Using the same rule, Defkalion could be ready no before mid 2016. Of course my gut feeling, is that it will take 6 month, which is the consensus of innovators, and always proved wrong. :/

    I have nothing more than what you say, and optimism, talking of "reactor commissioning".


    All moves that looks strange are explained by financial disagreement, personal choices, and desire to protect from industrial spies, without evidences.


    I have also some more negative position, without more evidence either.


    Basically i have nothing except fear and hope. Only rational position is to suspend our judgement until that summer/Q3.

    I hope that what you hear is confirmed soon, or at least on-time.
    May problem is that I have very bad, very complicated and very good reports.
    None can be ruled out, neither the best, nor the worst.


    My hope is that answering to E-cat test to come soon, Defkalion get out of it's silent and start to communicate as seriously as Rossi, with third-party testing reports.


    Hearing more negative Cassandra, I expect else the end of the questions.


    That last hypothesis is not so comfortable, is that things continue without any news.

    Today "LENR G" on LENR for the win, noticed that defkalion website, marked as under planned maintenance for long, announcing great results for this summer and no more communication, was currently showing "account suspended"


    http://defkalion-energy.com/cgi-sys/suspendedpage.cgi


    This is maybe meaning less, but more probably maybe a sign of a terrible or good news.


    The beginning of defkalion have been very controversial.
    Initially in 2011 they were supposed to partners with Rossi to develop E-cat for Greece.
    in Summer 2011 Defkalion broke the partnership, accusing Rossi of proposing a prototype not working long enough.
    Rossi and his friend Stremmenos who presented Defkalion to Rossi, accused Defkalion of treatorship, megalomania...
    Then Defkalion made a dynamic communication, participating ICCF17 and 18, showing general papers on their technology, based on plasma and nickel foam...
    In 2012 they claimed they will publish test soon, but no clear test came until late 2012 though an unvolunteer leak of a test by Michael Nelson, working as independent consultant, but working for Nasa the rest of his time. I contacted him, and he confirm no less, but no more of his test, which was positive but needed more checking and confirmation.
    In summer 2013 for ICCF18, Defkalion organised a demonstration in the lab of Defkalion Europe, a partner (Mose SRL) with Luca Gamberale as CTO. Mats Lewan and Luca were present. the Demo run nicely, but was not at all an independent test.
    Few days after Luca Gamberale denounced some "Discrepancies", and since then many precises buzz describe a serious problem with the water flow measurement, fooled by the back pressure of the violent steam reaction. Luca did not confirm publicly that scenario, but defkalion never answered publicly about his questions, and since 2014 Luca is claiming on his Linked-In account that he is "independent".


    Meanwhile the director of international development "Symeon Tsalikoglou" left also.
    Seeing an insider, a partner, leave a startup is a bad signal, but it may also be the consequence of classic personal choice or business disagreement.
    I asked to different people about those concerning events, and I got very varied opinion.
    On vortex, few people like Jed Rothwell who approached them, clearly talk of bad feeling, bad behaviors. More than bad, for me they seems incoherent and irrational for good businessman or fraudster...
    I got reports from people who approached Defkalion recently, and they give possible explanation for all strange events, including personal choices, financial disagreement, industrial spying, and a current process of reactor commissioning with result this summer...
    For others I have serious accusations, and for some simply internal human problems ...


    This anecdotical web agency account closure, may , I hope, be the symptom of a structural change.
    There may be very bad news, following the bad feeling of some of my contacts, like a company shutdown.
    There may be good news, lire a revival of the company with good results, changing of web agency, launching a public relation ...
    It can also be simply a forgotten deadline, with a company working on others subjects.


    Until 2013, Defkalion team had a better image of professionalism, compared to the tumultuous Rossi, but they failed to deliver.
    the Test of Nelson transiently give recognition of their achievement, but facing the Levi&al test, Nelson test is insufficient, and ICCF18 demo is a pony show. The trouble with Luca (and Symeon, and Jed) finished to cast doubt on their image...
    Is it real ? It is hard to imagine that they are a simple con-artist, as they did not have the optimal behavior for that show-business. However failing to deliver and hiding it happens often for startup. Add to that internal human problems, financial problems, and you have many reason to fear a catastrophic end... In that scenario, it is also possible that after effort, serendipity , and luck, they succeed in delivering.


    Currently the emergency is to wait an see... Keep your lottery ticket, in case.


    I wish them to deliver as we expect, and also to explain us their problems later.
    Anyway even if the end is sad, it may not be the end, as competence, talent and technology may be recycled. That is life.

    red mercury was not tested by 7 physicist who stayed few days alone with the device, who where free to bring their instruments, and who measured few hundred degrees of temperature anomaly over a calibrated IR cam wit few degrees of errors.


    doing comparison is interesting but we should remember the details.
    Red mercury was a black-swan risk, and was funded as risk mitigation by governments. it was not a business opportunity, but a risk of ruin. LENR may be considered as such risk, but by energy companies, not by startup and funds for who it is an opportunity, not a risk.


    Red mercury was not replicated upon earth in many state and industry labs, by experienced scientists, challenged by many scientist who were only able to write 4 papers, all broke and refuted to the point of dismissal.


    we should also try to apply the same level of skepticism to similar technology and see how absurd is current situation. Using the same technology we could dismiss many technologies.


    The skepticism on LENR startup is reasonable until a classic level. asking third party tests, checking details, observing the behaviors of partners and insiders, is part of the "Due Diligence" that you can expect from investors like Prometheon, Cherokee, Sunrise securities,...


    However above the normal skepticism that apply similarly to bomb detectors, to solar panel technology, to drug claims, there is evident denial.
    Cold fusion is factually proven as a phenomenon, and only Aristotelian desperation of missing theory and pathetic lemmings effect makes most scientists and media unable to admit it.
    It is nothing else the denial of cold fusion that makes outspoken skeptics so desperately opposed to the possibility that E-cat, Brillouin, may be third-party validated technology.


    Now I would appreciate to have a rational challenge of E-cat test, by someone who admit cold fusion is validated since 1992, using classic business-grade arguments, aware of game theory and common-sense.


    I imagine that rational pessimistic people on that subject would be noticeable from the fact that they introduce minor possibilities of fraud, instead of claim of sure fraud.


    The situation is not very rational, and this makes that even rational people may miss important alarms because the skeptics are continuously barking at the moon, calling wolf, wolf, which makes their alarm hold no information.


    We need new generation of skeptics who study the situation with normal eyes, based on good-old business experience. LENR is business, this mean risky, this mean failures, errors, overconfidence, desperate problem hiding, bloody competition, and few % of frauds and carpetbaggers, all mixed up sometime.


    Maybe current situation should not be compared to red-mercury but to internet bubble.
    Sure Internet was the technology of the future, and sure real, but it's maturity in 2000 was over-hyped, and there was crook and deluded idealist who ruined many investors.


    The over-skeptics who bark at the moon continuously don't help us to detect the hype.
    Like on Internet beginning, the supporters like me take the risk to be over-optimistic, to support deluded groups, because there is few credible critics to raise serious point.


    Practically on E-cat, with levi&al test, the main risk is not the absence of technology, but it's lack of maturity. We should focus our efforts in that kind of assessment, and maybe less on fighting LENR denial.

    Brian Ahern replicated something nor far from Rossi process in 2011



    I appreciale the last paragraphe which remind me much:

    Quote

    Why Cold Fusion is mostly ignored


    Brian Ahern feels that the abject lack of interest by the U.S. population in Cold Fusion and the Rossi work is related the sociological issues around the financial collapse as described in the Big Short. The sociological issue has similar attributes to the 2008 catastrophy in the financial community. None of the money managers foresaw the collapse of the bond market resulting in a trillion dollar bailout by the american middle class.

    Brian Josephson, a Nobelized long time supporter of Cold Fusion, and more generally of a science open to investigate on the impossible, have made a comment which review the book of Mats Lewan
    An Impossible invention
    in a weekly post on "nature.com"


    Quote

    The highlight of the week was the publication of Mats Lewan's book 'an Impossible Invention', subtitled The true story of the energy source that could change the world. The author, a science and technology writer, has been investigating the controversial Rossi reactor or E-cat in depth in the 3 years since its initial presentation in Bologna in January 2011. The first part of the book covers Andrea Rossi's previous inventions, showing how life is not easy for an inventor whose inventions pose a threat to other enterprises. This is followed by what Lewan has been able to glean about the invention since the initial demonstration, purportedly of a fusion device creating some kW of heat. Besides following the course of developments in detail, Lewan gives much attention to the question of whether the device is genuine, or whether fraud is involved. One important event was a long-period investigation, published at arXiv:1305.3913, providing strong evidence of the production of anomalous heat. Particularly interesting to me, in the light of my past dealings with arxiv, was the text of an accidentally leaked exchange between two moderators, wondering if they could find a rationale for blocking that report. In the course of his attempts to bring his device to a commercial conclusion, Rossi had problems with collaborators, being suspicious of their motives, but it seems he has found an (undisclosed) American firm that he trusts, who have been licensed to develop the device. This fascinating book provides the answers to many questions about the E-cat, and should be read by all sceptics. Brian Josephson


    Be should bet on how long his comment takes to be erased... or not.


    this comment is quite hasty, and he have made much better essay, beside inventing Josephson Junction.



    His vision of what should do science for judged impossible is well described in his presentation :
    Pathological Disbelief


    I have to admit that beside LENR (which is solid science), i don't support much of his claim, but I won't be surprised to be wrong in my skepticism, at least a little.


    This presentation is really Great on it's historical side, on Cold Fusion history, remind how consensus can be catastrophically wrong for decades.

    Fusione fredda: nuovi test per l'E-Cat valutati da sette professori universitari, rimangono dubbi


    Quote


    Grosse novità in arrivo per Andrea Rossi ed il suo E-Cat, l'Energy Catalyzer messo a punto dall'imprenditore italiano, che a suo dire è in grado di produrre energia sfruttando un procedimento di fusione fredda: nelle scorse ore Rossi ha infatti confermato, tramite un post sul suo blog, che il report sui test indipendenti attualmente in corso (che peraltro termineranno con un mese di ritardo rispetto alla tabella di marcia prevista) sarà redatto da sette professori provenienti da tre diverse università.
    ...

    EDIT: that article is old in fact, from 2006.
    An Italian article reported in 2006 a UK military report citing Iwamura and Celani researchs to manage nuclear waste remediation through LENR.


    I don't know the impact factor of that media, but the article is quite positive.



    This article is to be put in parallel with an article on Mitsubishi/Iwamura work on LENR transmutation, what looks like another mainstream newspaper, in the Green Business section :


    Quote


    The road to the detoxification of radioactive waste? Mitsubishi Heavy, to practical research(translated)


    Use the deuterium, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries established the basic technology of the element conversion to change the type of the element with less energy. Without a large-scale nuclear reactors and accelerators, for example cesium was confirmed by experiment and can vary in many praseodymium element number four. Toward demonstration equipment installation in the future and into the practical application research. Converted to harmless non-radioactive elements, the same strontium and radioactive cesium radioactive waste and those that open the way for detoxification of, the rush to put to practical use as a primary manufacturer.

    ...


    Iwamura works seems to have attracted strange interest since long.
    Rethinking how LENR is ignore today, but that there is a "Weak Signal" remaining since long, it is hard to understand who is discreetly supporting LENR, who will make it's coming-out on Cold Fusion ?

    Il y a une conférence sur la fusion froide, animée par JP Biberian ce Vendredi 11 avril dans la commune du Beausset en Provence
    http://www.latribunedubeausset…industrielles-3069-50.htm


    Quote

    Animé par Jean-Paul Biberian, physicien et maître de conférence à l'université Aix-Marseille, cette conférence instructive permettra à ses participants de mieux connaitre cette énergie découverte il y a tout juste un quart de siècle.Entrée libre.Renseignements : Association HarpsTél.: 04 94 90 57 09




    I was just recently observing discussion about latest announce of Blacklight power and about the credibility of Hydrino theory.... and I put Randell Mills in perspective with Huizenga, Lewis Larsen, me, skeptics, supporters, believers, entrepreneurs...


    BLP, like the others pet-theories (even WL,Rossi), and the skeptics show a tragedy of "STORYTELLING".


    By talking to skeptics, hearing believers, hearing old stories, observing my own evolution I start to understand the cause of that GENERAL FIASCO : Storytelling...


    Contrary to the myth, human brain cannot manage really the evidence; like a bad cop, a bad CSI, a bad Coroner, human brain start by creating a story and arrange the evidence around that story (Track and Lock pathology as plane security diagnose it). Only when it is too hard (and nothing is too hard for intelligent people), does a human brain abandon his storytelling. At best it might jump on another storytelling, or get depressive .


    When F&P make their show, they have a naive storytelling for Chemist.. they have solid calorimetry, and as chemist they were trusting more the experiments than the theories... so they have a cloudy physics theory, and a clear experimental storytelling...


    This story was not acceptable by nuclear physicists, who asked for a story with a strong theory, and for them theory is proving experiments are wrongly done everyday.


    So not trusting chemist more than cookers, they made a storytelling were cookers were crooks, and theory was right...


    It worked very well : all dissenting experiments could be explained by this story, provided you did not read the data, nor used psychology... as Physicist are weak in psychiatry, incompetent in calorimetry, disdaining chemist, they accepted that Cold Fusion conspiracy theory, like tinfoil hat accept Alien Conspiracies, because it explain a world they cannot accept as-is.


    The people who observed cold fusion and could not follow the tinfoil conspiracy of Huizenga mostly needed a story telling , so many of them invented a "once upon a time, far far away there was ..." pet-theory. Like Mallove they also added some storytelling with Oil conspiracies, Hot fusion conspiracies, to explain the observation that Nobel scientist were behaving like tinfoil-hat.


    This story telling made them able to accept facts and directed their efforts. Randell Mills for me is among of the most visionary, thus the less rational. Lewis-Larsen is one of such too, and is good like Mills on public relation, because they have a story.


    I was greatly disturbed for long time since 1993 because I could not find a story to match my experience and my observations...


    today I have a story that I'm telling...

    • F&P published good experiments on long time observed electrochemistry "big foot" anomalies, hidden in many drawers.... They made many mistake out of chemistry which killed their credibility.
    • Physicists rejected their story, preferring their own story where the clown were chemist, and theory was right.
    • 6 dishonest dogmatic non-powerful incompetent outspoken scientists were exploited by that community as the leader of opinion to tell the desired story : Lewis,Hansen,Morrison,Park,taubes,Huizenga. they needed no evidence, tried, but failed to give any, so repeated old lies and unfounded claims with a high voice.
    • It convinced the planet because the story match the prejudice of many scientists, many journalists, and because chemist are not respected. It spread like a flu.


    On my side the mainstream story did not convince me because of many absurd point in the story, that were not credible :

    • Criticizing lack of reproducible, considering failures as evidence... absurd for someone knowing the story of semiconductors, and first order logic.
    • Criticizing experience on the basics of theory, for someone knowing scientific history
    • Applying free space physics inside a lattice, for someone aware of semiconductors and superconductors quantum physics.


    I start to build good story when I fall on Groupthink model by Roland Benabou after the Subprime crisis I observed from few meters, after the Internet bubble I lived from inside...


    Finally the last details of my storytelling get printed from the book of Charles Beaudette, from the Wikipedia deleted page, and Jed Rothwell Titanic article.


    And the story match the fact, the history of science since the beginning, the history of financial bubbles, the work of Benabou, Taleb, Kuhn, the history of microelectronics, hot and cold superconductors, radioactivity, medicine, even nanotechnology and aircraft invention.


    Forget hot-fusion, or oil conspiracy... just storytelling, or Paradigm as Thomas Kuhn says...


    Now if you want to convince someone, forget the arguments, we have too many evidences and arguments.
    Make a nice storytelling of what your auditor practice everyday.


    For me the theory of groupthink is everyday proven. QM in lattice, lack of reproducibility, paradigm change impediment, pathology of peer-review, are self-evident in history.


    What are your knowledge in physics, in epistemology, history, psychology ? the storytelling that can convince you should be compatible with the stories you can understand... I'm afraid that given the weak historical and technical knowledge, and the respect given to scientists, most people need a conspiracy theory to accept cold fusion. Not me.

    A positive coverage of LENR, seen as a Blackswan event:
    Betting on Black Swans: The Potential Implications of New Energy Solutions for Climate Change and Biodiversity


    Many citation of documents we all know. Homework is done, which is exceptional.