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AlainCo Tech-watcher, admin
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Posts by AlainCo

    About thos storing Chloroquine, be careful, this drug is very toxic...

    Some people lik Pr Roult are experience in usng it to cure some rare disease (why he promote it today, he is one of the only competent in controlling doses and side effect).

    It can destroy the hear beat oscillator, or make yout cornea spotty...


    Anyway Pr Roult report his results (many other points discussed, if you understand france... tasty)

    by the way, he promots a strategy : test, isolate, cure, release

    he tested chloroquin and a mix with an antibiotic azitromycine...

    the drugsafety people will be under panic as both drugs attack the heart rythm...

    Pr Raoult is quite criticized as lacking prudence on that, but what he claims is experience using it...


    Stay at home anyway...


    I stay at home because not only this disease is risky, the chloroquine is very risky, but also becaus emu governement is coward and stupide, and I don't trust them to allow this dangerous drug to be used if it works... today precautionism say you shoul prefer letting someone de for sure than risking to kill him by accident.


    This crisis is a revelation about failures.


    China helped Italy because of an old honor debt when Italian doctors helped them 40 yeard ago...

    Alibaba gave mask to Germany.

    Germany refused to sell mask to switzerland.

    France criticied Chinese scientists, and get bashed back by China embassy.

    Since france blocked the price of Hydroalcoolic fluid and mask, we have none now (except in ministers), and Luxury goods group now start to manufacture it in their perfume factories.

    Happy to see Rolls Royce manufacture respirator... If Alan can buy one for me... it seems I'm too old to deserve one if I need (median age of people needing respiratoir isn below 50 now).


    Don't panic, but stay at home, even before the government ask you, they are coward and stupid...

    0.5% of dying , but much more at my age, and probably no ventilator, unless Alan find one for me at Rolls Royce. ;->

    Worldmeters shows only 30 new cases in France today. Perhaps the numbers are wrong? If it is true, it is excellent news, because yesterday there were 808.


    Alain: can you verify 30 new cases?

    We nearly don't test. only severe cases. There are great controversy about the Korean strategy to test, test, test... and then isolate and cure (this latest point is by Pr Raoult who relicated the results by Chinese, follwing thei guidelins used also by South Korea, now India, Iran, Saudi a=Arabia - to use chloroquine and some other antivial ... NB: don't use it, the Chinese doctors themselves explan how it is dansgerous and must be monitored daily, eyae, electrocardiograms...)


    my estimate is that about half a million french are contaminated. our governement was late like the Italians, but not using their experience... Germans are better because they test much more and stored test month before the shock...

    To compute the million Frenc... 150 dead, 0.5% letality on SK, thus 30000 infected people , and it takes about 2 week to die after the infection, thus they were 30k 2 weeks ago.... depending on numbers there is a growth from 4x to 10x per week... thus between 500k infected today to 3Mn infected...

    from 1 to 5% of the population


    probably not far in UK... count your dead, multiply by 200, then by your growth factor, from 16 to 100...


    our ICU are under panic... not sure they will have a respirator for me if I'm sick. Above 50, I don't know if they will not prefer to give it to a 20yo bastard who get to a disco last night.

    A very instructive, but very hard to make compatible with current Western positions on Vovid19.

    In French.

    Pr Raoult explains many things, how the PCR test works with start/stop sequences, and can test someone in 2 hours, and how his Institute can do a thousand test a day...

    He explains that one leading official in thoracic medicine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Nanshan

    have put chloroquine phosphate in "guidelines" for all symptomatic patients.

    http://jtd.amegroups.com/user/view/295

    China is storing chloroquine currently


    Raoult explains that he is of the few experience with using Chloroquin for infection threatemen (he invented a threatement for endocellular bacteria, behaving similirally to sras-cov2)...


    It is hard for me to understand why in France we test so few people, and why it tooks so long in US...

    Who is fooling me...

    In France, a bit late, all closed except food&bank, and voting boots.

    Work at home. No school.


    Official communication that non steoroidian antiinflamatory drugs lead young people to tragic situation....

    Ibuprophene, Ketoprophen, Aspirin. Corticoid to avoid too. Ask your doctor, no automedication.


    In Switzerland, even faster but less... doubling every day. Lockdown in process it seems.


    Campaign to #stayathome

    Just read article about Italy.

    Doctors are desperate. they are sorting who will have a respirator and who will... probably die.

    The goal of quarantine and social restriction are only to slow the epidemic... we can manage everybody infected, but not doubling few times a week.


    We have the power in our hands. soap.

    Or there's always hydroxychloroquine used to treat malaria,lupus and rheumatoid arthritis possibly just as effective?


    1- don't try to make a clinical test yourself with hydroxychloroquine...

    2- Chinese have done such test and Pr raoult reports that one of the observation is that infections last for 4 days with that. The report is not clear, not quantified, but said very positive... which raises incredulity.

    3- Pr Raoult explained that he was not surprised, and even advised to test Chloroquine, because he used that medication to cure bacterial infection inside cells, that anre technically not so different from big viruses (used same vacuole, that HCQ make more acidic). he used much higher doses than used agains malaria. It is know to work in vitro agains many coronaviruses, but yest in vivo may be different.

    4- Recently some noticed that Chinese authorities have launched a plan to push production of hydroxychloroquine and another known antiviral (I forgot... maybe Remdesivir)

    5- some article reports that agains Chloroquine and another antiviral are officially on "guidelines" in china

    6- there is an article in nature about "repositioning", which is a strategy that Pr Raoult push (since hardest point in making a medication, is testing it's toxicity, and that for a known medication used in another indication, that job is done).

    7- recognized virologist in FR,CH,QC, all reported the chineses scientits have communicated since the beginning, in December... Chinese are said very good , if not leader in virology in the world.

    8- another medication, against arthitis (an antiinflamatory) is interesting Chineses https://www.fiercepharma.com/p…-new-treatment-guidelines


    Don't use it alone it is a medication that have a lethal dose not far from the effective dose. The disease will probably not be serious for most of you... If you are young, don't smoke, have good lungs... anyway, wash your hands, avoid big events, to visit the elderly, in order to slow the propagation, so that the hospital are not flooded by people needing a respirator.

    Washing hands&alike may also push usual flu to extinguish faster, making room in emergency care hospital.


    It is a great moment in humanity. See the speed to sequence ARN, provides tests, try vaccines, tray antiviral, high communications, huge public awarenes, beside the conspiracy theories, great advices (wahing hands, avoiding meetings...), and great tools (hydroalcoholic fluid, remote work, teleconference tools) are available...


    The curves of infection grow, but more and more country are in linear if not logistic shape, with logistic limit quite low...

    The hardes will be to convince the careless majority to calm down propagating the virus by shaking hands and going to the disco or to visit the elderly... Percolation theory rules.

    Two ideas are in my head.

    One is washing our hands to reduce R0 below 1 so the coming pandemic deflates....


    Another is why it is so hard, and why so many just shake hands to pretend to be polite (easier for me since I'm polite like Spock)


    This is only slightly OT. We need to work together to reduce R0 by a factor of about 3. all... each...

    https://ncase.me/trust/

    Another conference by a Swiss professor, in French.

    Not very different from Pr Raoult, but more clearly concerned by the risk of pandemia, even if assuming low mortality, because the population have no immunity...

    Transcription may be better, so translation...


    NB: like Pr raoult, it seems clear that the high mortality in Wuhan seems linked to a very bad healthcare infrastructure...


    He take as model the pandemia of H1N1.

    https://www.businessinsider.fr…-panic-experts-say-2020-1


    2% mortality is said low, but quite high compared to flu.

    However in some other articles it is explained that most infected people are with no great symptoms...

    I've read numbers like 80% invisible...

    EDIT: found there

    https://www.businessinsider.fr…ent-cases-are-mild-2020-2



    Note that Wuhan is big as France, 50million people, and if the virus is deadly as flu and infect everybody as it is very contagious, it means 50 000 death. We are not yet there, but that is the bar.


    I don't know which share of a population is finally infected when the virus is very contagious in the site...

    I suspect Wuhan cities are not better than a cruise ship for contaminations...


    EDIT: another interesting articles about coronaviruses and bats, evolutions...

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/20…t-viruses-come-from-bats/

    For those who understand French, a minority report

    It is shockingly different from other reports.


    If explains that ALL KNOWN RESPIRATORY DISEASE circulating today are seasonal... which makes him admit that Trump may have been the only guy to tell the truth... (he is shocked too)... anyway he reminds that virus do that they want, that disease are mostly ecosystem phenomenon, and that out of their ecosystem it may fail to be transmitted


    Note that this institute is publishing video about politically incorrect positions on epistemology, randomized tests, p-values,, ethic, vaccines (his position is orthogonal to today's debates)... They are well funded, recognized as competent in worst possible disease and Pr Raoult is moaning regularly on WHO , on governments, and admitting Chinese are more modern than Europe...


    Sad for you is conferences and interview are in French, but even talking on Ebola, or epistemology it is great...


    It is much more subtle than what I imagined...


    I have seen other reports elsewhere about the fact tha Covid19 have been circulating between an animal reservoir and humans, multiple times... The hypothesis of an accident or a weaponization does not match that. It looks more like an old virus circulating by burst, as Pr Raoult explains for Ebola & alike...


    Note that Pr Roult video on ebola is interesting in explaining how Africa is changing, and making Ebola change, because of mobiles phones and Chinese mortobikes powering bush moto-taxis.


    Maybe the huge grwoth and wealth ingrease in Wuhan region have destabilized the local ecosystem...


    About more men being sick I've read report there are mich more mens death, but nearly as uch infected, ... maybe a bias on age, but there is a question...

    And all of this done with respected Japanese scientific institutions (Osaka University, Technova Inc., Kobe University)!


    Isn't this the huge breakthrough we all have waited for? 8|:love:


    There are many papers presented by sch recognized team.

    Some were presented or cited at JCF20


    the slides are there I suppose

    https://www.researchgate.net/p…Nano-Metal-and-HD-Gas.pdf


    the japanese ex-NEDO seems to work well, except that nobody cares out of LENR community...

    The work with Nissan reported at JCF20 was enthusiasming for me at it looked more engineer way of mind than physicists.


    It should be a great moment in a rational world.


    Quote


    We have repeatedly reported [1-11] that observed level of excess thermal power was too large to be explained by chemical reactions which happens by exchange of atomic and molecular orbital electrons with small energy (less than a few eV per hydrogen or other atom, for instance). In this work, we have also obtained data of specific reaction energy per D-atom transfer as shown in Fig.10. Under long-lasting excess thermal power of near 90 W for nearly a month (190 MJ of total heat), we observed evolution of specific reaction energy reaching 100 keV/D-transfer at maximum.


    it should be shocking.

    I'm scooping the interviews of Pr Didier Raoult, and beside not panicking,

    that in France today there have been about 4000 people sick of non Covid19 coronavirus (he have seen 40, and manage 1% of France), the advised practice agains covid19 or any flu/cough are :

    * wash your hand

    * get immunized against pneumococcus (97% of bird flu death were due to surinfection , mostly pneumococcus, also staphylococcus, and some other...)

    he explains that since we account first of serious cases in Wuhan, the rate of death is overestimated ... Nothings strange seems observed compared to other usual coronavirus in France today.


    NB: in France there is a report of a girl being beaten, "get out of the city, the highschool" because she is chinese and coughing... This is more serious.

    A former video from one of the few reference hospital about infections (they explained in another video I relayed, that they do PCR sequencing by thousands a day)...

    The professors seems clearly FED UP by the panic (it is visible but less on later video when he continues explaining it is yet anothe flu).

    The cause of the coverage for him is simply that the Chinese authority are more advanced than many countries in sequencing DNA and RNA of infections, routinely, systematically.

    He explais that they see cases of coronavirus every year and estimate hundreds every year ...

    He explains that such coronavirus appear every year, that those in Asia are less known, and since China is now developped and motivated enough to detect any new virus, we reach this strange situation....


    Basically he is fed up that on one side old virus are not considered enough despite their yearly mortality, and that a new virus catch undue relative coverage...


    Despite his bearded look, this man is

    Pr Didier Raoult, Director of l'IHU Méditerranée Infection , specialised in very dangerous disease (even ebola, plague...)

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/en/


    Beside that there is probably a breakthrough in disease treatment, or rather a confirmation.

    Remdesivir drug is working well...

    https://www.tellerreport.com/l…mdesivir-.rkWkE3X47U.html

    Every year is a (easier) challenge to survive. Hopefully with modernity, it is easier now than when my dad was kid. Celebrate those who have worked to cure you ...

    If the Chinese succeed in blocking Covid19, it will be something greater than Sputnik.

    Mortality rate is 4 times higher than the flu.

    The experts at Marseilles I cited earlier, are not impressed, and account the mortality out of the ground zero province. The find it is similar to flu (the numbers the give is 0.1% for flu 0.17% for Covid19 in mainland china out of ground zero)


    However I agree with Curbina that it cannot be contained, just slowed...

    I will catch it, and I hope my asthma will not send me to the hospital, else I hope they will try to keep me alive with what the Chinese doctors have tried... That is life.

    I got the flu in January, strong but for 2 days because I was immunized, and no later complications because of the usual protocol for asthmatic people that my doctor prescribed... I feel in better condition than before (because few days of sleeping are good)... Tell me good luck 8). Good luck to all of you... Hopefully we are not like in 1919.

    Frem one of the frenc epidemiology team experts...

    in summarry:

    0.17% mortality out of the epidemic center, classic for a respiratory disease, killing mostly 70yo+ men with preexisting disease, chronic bronchitis or diabete ... 10 similar respiratory virus are circulating, killing 10000 people in france, 2.6 million death each year globally.


    some old molecule (chlorokine, agains paludism) seems to be working and they remind that running for new drigs is an occident bias, and chinese remind us that old may work... even antibiotic on virus, and antiviral on bacteria, or else...

    They don't think that any vaccine will be available, as very few are created since 20 years...

    Yea the silver should increase conductivity which may apply benifits.

    It seems Fleischmann relayed by Edmund Storms, repeatedly explained that alloys that worked well (PdAg filters) contained some Silver ... Edmund Storms propose that it increase the resistance to big crack propagation...

    Maybe someone who followed the story can correct and detail this idea...

    I believe most vaccinations work 100% or not at all. Smallpox was eradicated because virtually no one who was vaccinated got it. ...

    Not so sure as I heard. Herd immunity have a very powerful effect, and the theory behind is Percolation theory. Above a threshold, chance of transmission beyond a (social) distance is null.


    However, good efficiency and great coverage is needed in a very connected world as today... 95% for Measles is said to be required as it is very contagious...

    In modern population where beliefs is a freedom, and contagious via media, 95% is improbable.