joshua cude Member
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Posts by joshua cude

    Peter Ekstrom wrote:


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    Yes, there is a lot of bad science and fraud out there in the LENR world. But there may be a gem among the pebbles.


    Maybe, but the support should be commensurate with the likelihood of the existence of the gem, as it is for other phenomena. I'm just arguing that Darden and company are not well-suited to make that sort of judgement, as evidenced by their colossal goof with Rossi.


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    Also with the proliferation of LENR activities there is lots of space for fraudsters to hide. Maybe IH could help cleaning up the dirty pond.


    That's the problem. What we've seen so far is the opposite. They have *enabled* the fraudsters, and thus dirtied the pond. Of course, they're free to put their money where they like, but my prediction is that they will support more fraudsters than legitimate researchers. Certainly, if they are supporting Brillouin, it is nearly certain they are on the wrong track. Godes is almost certainly a less flamboyant version of Rossi.


    Sidney Kimmel started out supporting Dardik, another one with a background in fraud instead of physics, but now at least his money is supporting an academic institute. Academics can be fraudulent too, but filtering it through an institute at least makes fraud more difficult. Presumably the disbursal of the money will be based on merit judged by people with relevant qualifications.


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    In order to make progress the emphasis should be less on COP and more on radiation and isotope shifts. The latter is really the fundamental parameter: without changes in the nuclide composition there are no nuclear reactions and no excess energy. Of course with a complete knowledge of nuclide changes the released energy can be calculated. I think I remember that MFMP had ideas in that direction.


    Well, they've come to that position lately, but they are excited by neutrons you can count on one hand. THat's at least a trillion times too low to produce measurable excess heat. It means that whatever they're seeing, has virtually no chance of being associated with the claims of excess heat, and without the excess heat claims, this would not be a topic.

    Dewey Weaver wrote:


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    Your logic around decades old money in relation to the need for progress while some of these giants are still around tells me all I need to know about you.


    It wasn't all decades-old money I referred to. The Sidney Kimmel money is current, and has led to nothing in several years. The money in support of Lattice (from an anonymous angel) is relatively recent (and may be current). And the ENEA continues to provide support. The funding for BLP is current, and I gather Karl Page is supporting Brillouin. There are others too. The point is, it is not a starved field. Because of the huge upside, it is actually easier to get funding in cold fusion than in legitimate areas of research. It is thinking like Darden's that makes it so.


    And the decades-old example of Toyota funding the discoverers of the alleged phenomenon was to illustrate that Darden's idea is not original, and it didn't work (with the biggest giants) in the past.

    Shane wrote:


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    I thought this comment by Mats Lewan's on his blog yesterday was interesting: [...]


    While this was quickly disputed by those who had already made up their minds, it may be that we just don't have ALL the information the testers have, and that maybe these colleagues were better able to judge?


    Granted, Levi has been totally silent since his promise to answer questions 1 1/2 years ago...where the hell have you been Levi!, but taking Levi's late response at face value, there does seem to be some legitimate scientific differences of opinions regarding Lugano. It isn't settled in other words, and it may never be.


    Is it force of habit that you can't stop defending Rossi, even after you say you've decided the ecat likely does not work?


    The difference between Clarke and Levi here is that Clarke's reasoning and calculations are spelled out in detail, and have been corroborated by several others also with explicit reasoning, as well as experimentally.


    Levi has done little more than say he disagrees, and that some unnamed colleagues agree with him. This from someone who can't tell wet steam from dry, and has a conflict of interest. And the little actual technical content in his statement according to Lewan (about using an emissivity of 1 throughout) just shows he's not even up to speed on what the objections are.


    So, if one is appealing strictly to authority, it seems most reasonable to go with the one whose case is laid bare, and has not met a specific challenge it couldn't answer.


    --


    But it really shouldn't matter, because if you conclude that the specifics of the heat measurements are not settled and may never be, then the Lugano report (or the excess heat part of it) is rendered meaningless.


    You've been conceding in the last few days that Rossi could prove the ecat worked if it did in short order, and the 5 years that he hasn't is damning. Well, that applies to the Lugano report. It was meant to be a *validation*. It's not a validation if it is merely consistent with excess heat. I must also be inconsistent with no excess heat. If you concede, as you have, that it is consistent with no excess heat, then that just shows that the experiment is poorly designed. And that has been clear from the 2013 "validation". If they want to prove excess heat, then let them use calorimetry, and learn something about calibration -- a word that appears to be verboten in the entire field of cold fusion. The use of thermography without suitable calibration is just another way to pull a fast one.


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    I am not taking anything away from Tim Clerk, or was that Thomas Clark


    Seriously? *You* are complaining about someone else's spelling. You who write Storm for Storms, and Krivits for Krivit, and don't know when to use "than" instead of "then" or "who" instead of "whom"?

    Dewey Weaver wrote:

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    IH is run by patient gentlemen with the right risk profile to try and find big solutions that solve pollution problems by deploying capital. They made a mistake on Rossi but did that with eyes wide open


    That the ecat is bogus has been obvious to rational observers for 5 years. The claimed validations simply did not validate, and that has been widely documented. You and IH now seem to agree with that, and that can only mean IH did not do proper due diligence when they decided to invest, or even after it seems. They were taken in by a 2-bit con man, plain and simple.

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    The long-term lack of money in this sector was partially addressed when Tom Darden decided to risk millions of dollars of his own capital to see what would happen when money showed up for this starved sector.


    Well, you can certainly say that Darden put money into the field, and that that was a risk, and that he wanted to see what would happen. None of that has intrinsic merit. He could do the same for perpetual motion research, and that would demonstrate folly, not wisdom.


    For him to be pouring money into a field that organizations like the DOE (which actually has access to relevant expertise, and which stands to benefit enormously from cold fusion if it were real) have rejected twice after careful examination of the best evidence, and that has a representation in the refereed literature that continues its inexorable asymptotic approach to oblivion, demonstrates both folly and arrogance.


    Moreover, the field is not as starved as people like to claim. Storms has estimated $500M has been invested in LENR over the years. Toyota put tens of millions into it in the early 90s to "see what would happen when money showed up". Nothing happened. EPRI, governments of Japan, Italy, and India have invested in it, as have Mitsubishi, Sidney Kimmel (via Energetics and now SKINR), and other angels for the likes of Lattice Energy. And that leaves out the ~$80M invested in the closely related BLP. Indeed, I can't think of any other field in which it would be easier for people like Robert Godes or Rossi or Dardik or Mills to attract millions in funding, without relevant experience and gobbledygook for sales pitches.


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    The good news is that the strategy appears to be working.


    If losing $10M and facing a $300M law suit is what you consider working, then yes.


    It doesn't appear to be working in any sense to me. But true believers, especially the newbies, always think things are happening, and that the big breakthrough is just around the corner. But it never is, and I doubt that it is now. In a year or two, the field will be in the same position it is now, which it the same as it was in last year and 5 years ago, which is far below where it was in the 90s.

    Shane wrote:


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    From what I hear now, they went into this eye's wide open, businesslike, and well represented with competent scientists...unlike the skep assumption that they were a bunch of naive boobs, taking Rossi solely at his word.


    Anyone with their eyes open and a little rational thought knew the ecat was bogus from the beginning. Those with their eyes open and somewhat less rational thought (like Krivit) took a few months to come to the same conclusion.


    There is no way IH could have had their eyes open when they invested in the ecat. That it took them years to discover it doesn't work even with direct access to the hardware means their eyes were tightly shut, and they were very clearly naive boobs. Skeptics have not said they were taking Rossi solely at his word. They were taking the word of Rossi plus a bunch of scientists commissioned and vetted and probably handsomely compensated by Rossi.


    Anyone with their eyes open would have brought in their own team completely independent of Rossi, to test it completely independent of Rossi, and they would have walked if Rossi had not permitted that. At the very least they would have had those "validations" critiqued by their own objective experts, and found in very short order that they did not validate the claims -- even if taken at face value.


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    They no doubt have been equally tough in vetting the rest of their accumulated team of LENR+ players, which gives me, and I hope my fellow believers, some comfort when Darden/IH say positive things about the science.


    This is true believer mentality. IH was dead wrong about the ecat, and it took them years to discover (or at least disclose) it, and somehow you take that as an endorsement of their ability to vet energy claims.


    Be rational Shane. It is obvious from the ecat episode that IH truly sucks at vetting energy claims. Not just getting sucked in to the tune of $10M to begin with, but to take so long to realize the mistake. They very clearly suffer from wishful thinking and severe confirmation bias mixed with delusions about conspiracies. Darden, in his speech to the ICCF, showed this when he confused scientific infanticide with what was nothing more than scientific menopause. Cold fusion was not born, stillborn, or miscarried. It was never conceived. Fleischmann was no longer fertile.


    So, having failed to vet the ecat properly, they should not be trusted with anything to do with LENR.


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    LENR needed someone like IH to come along to shape the field up, weed out the charlatans, direct efforts towards commercialization, polish it's public image, and hopefully present the scientific establishment with incontrovertible proof there is something there


    Far from weeding out the charlatans, they have built them up. As you said, without them, Rossi may have disappeared a long time ago. They kept him alive. And they're doing the same with Brillouin and others. As you admit, they have not yet got incontrovertible proof of LENR, but they're putting money in it anyway. Even though Brillouin's claims are more modest that Rossi's, if they had merit, they could be proven unequivocally. Anyone who invests without insisting on it is pinching their eyes shut, and hoping to avoid reality.

    alainco wrote:


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    Wikipedia adming, including Josuah Cudes


    I understand that it is common for true believers to reach firm conclusions without evidence, but in fact, I have nothing at all to do with Wikipedia, other than as a frequent user.


    This may come as a shock to you, but it is quite possible for different people to have the same first name.

    Shane wrote:


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    Seems you are hung up on wealth. I am not. That skews your thinking and unfetters mine.


    It's not about either of our interest in wealth. It's about Darden's, and he's an investor. His entire life is defined by investments, and that's about making money.


    Anyway, I also said, apart from the wealth, his best chance at a favorable legacy if the ecat were real would be by supporting Rossi, not by fighting legal battles with him. Legal battles take time.


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    And if he thinks Rossi is being recalcitrant, and not willing to release his secrets to them (IH), therefore the world as they intend to do, then Darden's mission to help the world is a failure.


    That is why he is against Rossi, twisting his arm so to speak, at this point. Not to make more money.


    I don't buy it. Whether Rossi or Darden are motivated by money or benevolence, if the ecat were real, both would be most effectively facilitated by getting the ecat on the market, where it actual does some good. Their interests would therefore be aligned to this extent.


    If Rossi claims he is delaying the disclosure of the secrets because he doesn't have a patent, and he fears competition, then that would mean he's holding out for hundreds of billions instead of billions, and $100M is not gonna change his mind. If one believes Rossi in this scenario, then the quickest way to get him disclose the secrets, were they real, would be to help him prove the ecat is real (by funding him), so he could get the patent. But Darden surely figured it out by now that Rossi could prove it's real without $90M -- indeed, without the $10M -- and get his patent, which means the lack of a patent is just an excuse for pretending there's a secret, and conning more money out of him.


    Furthermore, if Darden were so eager to get the secret, he could have made the $90M contingent on the disclosure, and if he did, then why would he say what you say he's saying in such an opaque way?


    I still say believers are grasping at straws in trying to make a perfectly plain statement sound equivocal.

    Shane wrote:


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    Darden is rich enough already.


    No one is so rich as to squander the possibility of that kind of potential wealth.


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    He is altruistic at this point in his life. Wants to help the world, and have a place in history. Establish his legacy.


    Nothing like wealth to purchase such things. Anyway, wealth aside, if he thinks the ecat works, his best chance of fame and legacy is with Rossi, not against him.


    But he doesn't think it works. It's what the words mean.

    Shane wrote:


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    Darden is a lawyer. As we found out with the word *is* 18 years ago, lawyers intone more meaning in to words, than the dictionary defines. *Substantiate* is a much longer word than "is".


    This is what I believe Darden mean't to convey by using the 12 letter word "substantiate" in his statement: "Rossi, you little bastard, turn over all the damn secrets, or you aren't going to get your $89 million!". Exclamation point is my artistic addition.


    And like I said, you're grasping at straws if you believe that. There is no need for the secret to substantiate the claims. By the well-understood meaning of "substantiate", he is stating that he does not believe the ecat works.


    That is also the only plausible explanation for all of this. If he believed it worked, there is no way he would get himself into a battle like this, risking being shut out of a trillion dollar enterprise.

    Shane wrote:

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    joshua cude wrote:



    What I mean't though was Darden *acts* like he believes LENR. OK, you got me on that one. I went and read through his interviews and he makes lot's of allusions to his believing it real, but without outright saying that. Like claiming what a great orgasm he had, but refusing to admit he had sex.


    That's funny. You find Darden's obviously deliberate statements avoiding any direct claim that the ecat works, including a statement where he admits he was not optimistic, as acting like he believes it. But you regard a clear statement that he has been unable to substantiate it as equivocal.


    Like I said, you are grasping at anything to support your pre-determined conclusion.


    Darden did not act like he believed LENR. He acted exactly the way investors act when they think there is potential. He bet money on it, and then of course, talked it up to attract other money.


    But someone who believed LENR was real, with the opportunity he had, would not limit his bet to 10 M for a trillion dollar technology. And if he thought the ecat was real, he wouldn't have bet on Brillouin. And if he thought LENR was real, he would have pulled investments from every other renewable energy project. Has he done that?

    Shane wrote:


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    me:


    True I did say that, but what I mean't was that if IH abandoned the the Ecat, and that they would definitively state so in unequivocal terms, that I would turn my back on the Ecat, none of which has occurred yet.


    You are grasping at straws to suggest IH's statement is equivocal. They have tried to substantiate the validity of Rossi's ecat claims and failed.

    Shane wrote:


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    None. As loosely as skeps have defined that word, there is not a single graduate of the UOB, or any Italian or Swede scientist, who meets the criteria of independent, or even have the qualifications to do the job...


    Actually, a loose definition casts a wider net, not a narrower one. Maybe you mean as narrowly as skeps have defined it.


    But of course, the very fact that this has descended to arguing about the independence of the verifier shows that it is almost certainly bogus.


    Imagine after the Wrights' flight in 1908, skeptics arguing that the witnesses were not sufficiently independent. How far would that have got them? The fact is that every skeptical witness (and there were several of the most skeptical) capitulated within 110 seconds when Wilbur demonstrated unprecedented control of his flyer.


    And 1 MW at a COP of 50 can be made every bit as obvious as powered flight, even if it might take a little longer than 110 seconds. It's just a joke that you can think it's real and that he can't or won't satisfy *everyone* that it is.


    Indeed, the claim of a COP of 50 by itself should be enough to satisfy any rational person that it is bogus. If it were really 50, then making it infinite (self-sustaining) would be a trivial matter, by closing the loop, and given the practical and psychological importance of doing so, there is no way he wouldn't if he could.

    Shane wrote:


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    Kind of funny how skeps can argue on the one hand; that if IH says, as they have, that the Ecat technology can't be "substantiated", yeah we trust them on that, but on the other hand, argue that they don't trust IH on their word that LENR is real, as they have also claimed.


    I think I missed where IH claimed LENR is real. People submit patent claims on spec all the time, often for procedures that have not even been performed. Patents take a long time to work through the system, so people routinely submit applications to lay claim to protect particular configurations and procedures, in the event that they actually turn out to work, even if they do not yet have proof that they do. I would not take the submission of a patent application as a statement of belief.


    What I know is that when Darden spoke at the ICCF19 a year ago, he said:


    "We started Industrial Heat because we believed that LENR technology was worth pursuing, even if we were unsuccessful. We were willing to be wrong, we were willing to invest time and resources to see if this might be an area of useful research in our quest to eliminate pollution. At the time we were not especially optimistic, but the global benefits were compelling."


    So, they believed it was worth pursuing. They were not optimistic. And the benefits were compelling.


    These guys are VCs. They gamble on prospects. And most of them fail, whether they have patents associated with them or not. As I argued from the beginning, IH's investment simply meant they judged the risk worth taking. Skeptics have always thought they had poor judgement on this matter, but that's not the same as regarding them as dishonest (although that possibility was not excluded either).


    ----


    No, it's only the believers that are having this one both ways. Even if what you say were true -- that IH has both claimed LENR is real and subsequently that the ecat is unsubstantiated -- skeptics have not based their position on "trust" in either case. Skeptics are skeptical of the ecat (and some of LENR) because of the lack of evidence for the claims. It's as simple as that. As I said, one can doubt the competence of IH in making the evaluation of the ecat (or in assessing its promise) without questioning their honesty or integrity. At the same time, when they come around to agreeing that the claims are not substantiated, it simply emphasizes the lack of evidence for the claims. There is no contradiction. Skepticism does not depend on IH.


    Believers on the other hand, have used little else for 2 years besides IH's investment to support their belief in Rossi's ecat. You yourself said that if it hadn't been for IH you would have abandoned Rossi a long time ago. Now that IH explicitly rejects the technology, they are no longer to be trusted.


    So, skeptics don't need proof that the ecat doesn't work. Without proof that it does, it's a good bet that it doesn't. When the issue of IH is raised by skeptics, it's not as proof the ecat is bogus, it is to demonstrate that most cited justification for believers' belief has suddenly disappeared. And therefore, that their belief is visceral rather than logical.

    padam73 wrote:



    What's your point? The problem with cold fusion is not the failure to anticipate the scale of the practical problems. It's the failure to provide proof of principle. In hot fusion, the principle has never been questioned, but if it had been, it was proven unequivocally in the 60s.


    My hypothetical involved failure to prove cold fusion to the world for another 30 years.


    Anyway, I seem to remember reading that Pons predicted a product within a year back in 1989. Hot fusion is only late by a factor of 3; cold fusion by a factor of 30.

    oystla wrote:


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    Joshua writes:


    The enthusiastic response came initially from non scientists. Physisists where sceptic early on of course, since it was two chemists that made claims within the field of Nuclear science.


    No, you're mistaken. The enthusiastic response came from scientists -- 7000 of them at the ACS meeting alone -- and included physicists, as Storms' account, quoted earlier, clearly shows. Non-scientists wouldn't know the significance of the announcement without guidance. It was because of the response from the scientific mainstream that the public got so excited.


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    Of course Physisist could not accept that outsiders (chemists!) had made any discovery within the field owned by physisists.


    Of course, you're mistaken, as Morrison's long emails, and Storms' detailed account clearly show. Not to say there was no patronizing from the physicists, but it was drowned out in the early days by that bubble of enthusiasm.


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    Joshua writes


    WRONG: physicists never believed The claims from the two chemists, and physisists never cared about heat measurements. It was radiation the physisists focused on (or the lack of). Possible Chemists believed F&P, but that didn't matter. It was the physisists that decided the future of CF.


    No, you're mistaken. Nature doesn't work that way. Non-scientists were the first to fly too, but it was not possible for scientists to decide that they couldn't fly. Nor could physicists magically prevent P&F from proving to the world (or at least to Toyota) that cold fusion was real with 100 times the resources they needed to discover it.


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    Joshua writes:


    According to literature, Nature where planning to publish reviewed initial papers of both Jones and F&P. It was not "Scientific Rigor" that stopped this happening.


    You can keep telling yourself that, but there is no way Nature would willingly miss out on publishing the biggest science news of the century if they actually thought the science had merit.


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    I see Joshua also is wrong about events in France.


    It's likely that F&P focused on the wrong LENR system. But ironically they did include Nickel in their patent from 1989, which propably would be a better choice.


    P&F focused on the same system with which they claimed the discovery. They were shut down for lack of progress, and that is inconceivable if the phenomenon were real, given the resources they had, whether or not it is the "best" system.

    oystla wrote:



    Yes, there were some hard skeptics from the outset, but the enthusiasm clearly dominated. And I did cite Storms' book and Morrison's comments as evidence, but I did not quote them explicitly because I've done it so often recently, I thought you would have already seen it. But I'm delighted to cut and paste a few quotes from Storms' book (chapter 2) once again:


    "A day after the public announcement, work was under way at LANL … People were quickly organized … with a speed that is no longer possible at LANL. Everyone scurried off to find palladium and heavy-water before the limited supplies were snatched up by someone else…


    "Excitement was building as more people heard about the “discovery” and <b>wanted to get in on the action. If real, such an important discovery hardly ever happens during a scientist’s career, …


    "During most of April, large and animated meetings were held every week as people tried to understand what Fleischmann and Pons had done and how the claimed effects might be duplicated. ...


    "By April 19, multiple programs were underway at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), ... [10 other national labs]


    "In addition, 56 people, involving 8 teams, were working on the problem at LANL. Of course, non-government laboratories as well as groups in other countries were also working hard. […copious details of labs around the world getting busy…] As this list of laboratories demonstrates, interest was widespread and spontaneous, with studies started in at least 50 major laboratories worldwide involving at least 600 scientists. In addition, many articles in the press and onTV spread interest to the general public. All of the major news magazines featured Fleischmann and Pons on their front covers."


    "At one point, the director of LANL, Dr. Siegfried Hecker, confided to me that he had not seen so much enthusiasm at the Laboratory since World War II. “Physicists are actually talking to chemists,” he observed with amazement. This attitude was being duplicated all over the world. To be sustained, this huge bubble of enthusiasm needed some very significant confirming results, ..."


    "Huge bubble of enthusiasm" among physicists and chemists as cited by Storms himself.


    And while I of course won't prove it, I lived through that time, and was in contact with several physics departments. The hard skeptics were outnumbered by optimists (some cautious, some enthusiastic) by at least 4:1. And Pons famous talk at the ACS meeting, I know for a fact, was attended by many physicists, who jumped up along with everyone else to cheer Pons on.


    There are also anecdotal stories of extreme enthusiasm, such as Moshe Gai, at Yale, who was so excited, he ate and slept at the lab for a month perfecting a neutron detector to test the claim. Allan Bromley, who became Bush’s science advisor, arranged a collaboration between Gai and Lynn, an electrochemist who had been at Utah, and was inclined to believe the claims. They became skeptical only later, after the evidence did not stand up to scrutiny.


    And besides Morrison (see below), other prominent *physicists* like Carlo Rubbia and Teller both were initially sympathetic to the claims.


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    Joshua writes:


    That is a claim, and Joshua provides no reference.


    I have in the past (just recently, in this forum), along with the quote. This is Morrison in his very first newsletter after the cold fusion press conference.


    "… I feel this subject will become so important to society that we must consider the broader implications as well as the scientific ones. Looking into a cloudy crystal ball, […] the present big power companies will be running down their oil and coal power stations while they are building deuterium separation plants and new power plants based on cold fusion. No new nuclear power stations will be built except for military needs….The theory, while not fully developed, suggests that the deuterium nuclei inside the lattice of the catalyst, are held so closely together that the probability of fusion(the tunneling effect) is dramatically increased by many orders of magnitude. If there do not turn out to be major practical problems, it may be expected that this will cause major changes in the energy industry and major social, economic and hence political changes."


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    While in my reference above from May.3rd 1989 Morrison says "The entire episode, he said, was an example of "pathological science," in which an erroneous experiment initally gained some support, then prompted skepticism and finally led to denunciation."


    Yes, the quote I gave is from 31 March 1989, and it can be found, for example, at http://allegedly.petebevin.com/coldfusi.html. The same site has multiple "cold fusion news" items every few days throughout April, and it's interesting to see how he gradually transitions from enthusiastic support to skepticism toward the end of the month.

    oystla wrote:


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    As I proved in my earlier post, Joshua did not know why cell size mattered in the 40 day tests by the deciding institutes.


    I still don't. Considering I'm nearly certain there never was any cold fusion, how could the size have been critical. But, I also doubt the cells in all the positive claims early on or for the next decades were exactly the same dimensions. Pretty soon it turned out that nothing in the experiment was critical for *claiming* cold fusion. The Pd wasn't needed. Neither was deuterium, or the electrolysis. All that was needed was to shut your eyes and make a wish, and cold fusion was everywhere. Except, it was never definitive, always marginal, and never the same result from different labs.


    The executive director at the Office of Naval Research, who had funded experiments by Miles and others said (from a NewScientist article in 2003) put it like this: "For close to two years, we tried to create one definitive experiment that produced a result in one lab that you could reproduce in another,” Saalfeld says. “We never could. What China Lake did, NRL couldn't reproduce. What NRL did, San Diego couldn't reproduce. We took very great care to do everything right. We tried and tried, but it never worked."



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    me:


    Wrong. There has been progress,


    But you don't actually name any.


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    but of course, the lack of funding means progress have been slow.


    Compared to what was needed for the discovery, P&F had at least 100 times the funding for twice the time, but no progress.


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    How much progress have hot fusion promises had since 1989?


    A lot. Their highest fusion rate in magnetic confinement was achieved in the late 90s, and the NIF reached Q=1 in 2012. There are lots of plots showing the increase in the triple product with time. It's pretty impressive. Especially compared to zero progress in cold fusion.


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    Anyhow the International Conference on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science, ICCF 19 in Padua, was the largest in many years with 564 participants.


    I was talking about *scientific* progress.


    Even some astrology conferences attract several hundred attendees, and there are several astrology conferences every year.


    Funny how so many participants generate so few peer reviewed papers.


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    Joshua writes:


    May well be, If Rossi is a fake, Broullion is a fake, Piantelli is a fake, F&P heat effect was wrong etc. and funding is not provided in the field, but I doubt it will be the case.


    Of course you do, but things looked a lot brighter for the field in 1989, and here we are almost 30 years later...

    padam73 wrote:


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    me:


    Are we talking about the same Steven Koonin, the guy who published articles on high temperature plasma reactions in the 1980's? The same Steven Koonin who decided to invest in the 10s of billions in hot fusion, especially in the gigantic National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory when he was in charge of the research budget of the DOE?


    He was a theoretical physicist examining a wide range nuclear reactions with no connection to any hot fusion power project. The possibility of cold fusion would have fit right in with his research. In fact in 1989, he published a paper on the possibly of charge screening in PdD, so the reality of cold fusion in no way threatened his funding or career.


    After the event, he became head of the DOE, and the DOE's support of hot fusion was continued. If an after-the-fact affiliation could have an influence on his thinking in 1989, it could only have been in cold fusion's favor.


    You see, the way greed works is that people like to keep money, not give it away. Hot fusion *costs* the DOE a lot of money. If they could get the same result without spending billions, that would obviously be preferable, particularly, since it comes with all sorts of other economic, environmental, and strategic benefits for the government that is footing the bill.


    You seem to be suggesting that you and I would oppose cold fusion because we prefer to keep on paying money to power our cars and heat our homes, in order to support the fossil fuel industry. Does that make any sense to you?

    alainco wrote:


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    My point was not to criticize LHC, but to pinpoint the double standards in critics.


    This is such a nonsense comparison. It's like comparing the evidence for flight to the evidence of the advance of the perihelion of mercury to support general relativity.


    Everyone understands what flight is, even if they don't understand aerodynamics, and it is relevant to everyone. And everyone can understand the evidence for flight.


    But in the case of the perihelion of mercury and GR, very few understand either of them, or how to measure them, or what they mean.


    Understanding the evidence for the Higgs boson requires a great deal of training and experience, not to mentions study of the experiments themselves. Most people are not qualified to evaluate the evidence, nor is any of it particularly relevant to them.


    The claim of an energy source with an energy density a million times higher than petrol that is accessible on a table top at ordinary conditions is every bit as ordinary and relevant as flight, and if it were real, would be provable to anyone. Advocates repeatedly pontificate about how it will power our cars, heat our homes, and replace fossil fuels. And yet, they can't even prove it's real.


    An additional difference between cold fusion and any of the above is that it is an extraordinary claim contraindicated by a century of robust experimental evidence.


    Anyway, a brief reading of the systematics, blinding, double-checking and so on used for the analysis of the Higgs experiment is all it takes to understand that no experiment in cold fusion has ever taken similar care -- at least not the ones claiming positive results.


    For example, thirteen of the 25 values used in Storms' 2010 review of the heat-helium results come from McKubre's gas-loading experiment, reported sketchily in a conference proceeding in 2000. He uses the data from one cell out of 16, and treats the observations as 13 independent measurements. This is grossly misleading for reasons I've outlined here before. Briefly, both heat and helium could be caused by artifact, and since the level of both is a matter of time, the correlation is meaningless. The paper is woefully inadequate as a scientific report. Much is left out, and many questions are unanswered, so it's not surprising that the work was never published in a proper journal, and for the same reason, it is completely unjustified to use the data from a single dubious cell to comprise more than half of the data points contributing to Storms helium ratio in the 2010 review.


    Storms' consolidated evidence for the correlation is cherry-picked, and based on his judgement. Comparing it to the scrutiny the LHC evidence was given, is a joke.


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    You never have proven any of the artifact in He4/Heat you claim,


    Most of the data Storms uses to claim such a correlation have not even passed the modest standard of peer review, and those that have have been challenged in the literature.


    It's not possible to prove an artifact based on a written report, especially badly written reports. But it's also not necessary to prove artifacts to maintain skepticism. If the claim is extraordinary, and the claimed observations are more plausibly attributable to artifact than to unprecedented nuclear reactions, then it is reasonable to remain skeptical.


    The onus is on the person making the extraordinary claim to exclude the possibility of artifacts, and in the case of heat helium, the most prominent experimentalists (McKubre and Miles) have both admitted the possibility of artifacts, and that better results are needed.


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    I propose the theory that all is explained by double standards and irrational desire to be right. This is a theory that match well the evidences.


    No way. Scientists are well aware that if cold fusion were real, its vindication would be inevitable, so if they thought it had a reasonable chance, there is no way they would suppress it for fear of being humiliated when proven wrong. That is, the desire to be right would cause them to be very careful before rejecting cold fusion. That's obvious from the way it was treated in 1989.

    The complete absence of progress in cold fusion is once again emphasized by the citations of arguments in defense of P&F's early work. If the field (and the arguments) had any merit, those arguments would *not* represent the last word in the literature; advocates would be citing recent *results* that put an unequivocal end to the dispute. Unfortunately, there aren't any.


    If this sort of thing helps you guys sleep at night, then more power to you. But I fail to see how you think it's going to be persuasive to skeptics who can *see* that nothing has come of it.


    I suspect that 30 years from now, when the world still thinks cold fusion is bogus, there will be a counter-part to alainco (maybe his descendant) rehashing the minutiae of the (then) 60 year old experiments and insisting their defenders got the last word, and citing Beaudette's book that they think proves cold fusion is real, even though the field does not represent a single meaningful or reproducible scientific or practical advance. By then, even graphic artists might have given up, so the task of finally, once and for all, proving cold fusion to the world might fall to junior high students, who might form the Stanley Pons Memorial Project.


    --


    I mentioned the events of 1989 to show that the overwhelming inclination of mainstream science was to accept the phenomenon of cold fusion, and to show that suggestions about an intrinsic bias against it are nonsense. The account in Storms book of 2007 leaves no doubt that scientists around the world were enthusiastic and excited to get involved in the new field. And the gushing first reaction from Douglas Morrison shows that even eventual and adamant skeptics were at first excited to accept the claims.


    oystla cited the applause Koonin got when he finished his talk accusing P&F of incompetence. But talks always get applause, and in comparison to the 7000 scientists that gave Pons a standing ovation a few weeks earlier, this was pretty tame, and represented appreciation for a detailed and logical examination of a revolutionary claim.


    And I brought up the criticisms of P&F to explain why the sentiment changed in a matter of weeks. It doesn't matter if a few advocates think that the criticisms were all suitably answered, and that P&F held sway. What matters is that in the judgement of most scientists who paid attention, P&F were exposed as incompetent and probably delusional.


    The initial enthusiastic response from the world in 1989 was obviously contingent upon the reliability of the two scientists making the claims, which was thought to be high. Certainly, no one thought scientists of that calibre could get claims of nuclear fusion or measurements of heat wrong, especially when such an important revolutionary claim depended on them.


    But then, when it was discovered that the work was without question sloppy, and the report was rushed, and some public claims had been clearly exaggerated, confidence in P&F evaporated, and the sentiment changed. Any 8 page paper that requires two pages of errata is sloppy, particularly when a critical spectrum is completely revised. And then the interpretation of the spectrum was found to be wrong, their rationalization for the work was determined to be completely invalid (the proximity of deuterium nuclei to one another in fully loaded Pd is *less* than in a deuterium molecule), and the best that can be said of the calorimetry is that it was not compelling, and did not support the public claims made in the press conference.


    Again, you can argue that the criticisms were answered and that on your score-card, P&F won the debate, or got the last word, but the reality is that the evidence was *not* compelling, and the judgement reached about P&F's incompetence has been vindicated over the years.


    Their results did not convince the reviewers for Science or Nature, which had been holding a place for their paper, but rejected it because it did not meet ordinary standards of scientific rigor.


    The results did not convince the ERAB panel that studied the field for 6 months, and which represented interests that could only benefit from cold fusion in many ways.


    The results did not convince the patent office, which eventually (1998) rejected the application submitted in 1990.


    The results did not even convince the organization that gave them a posh lab in France and generous support for their research. In 1998, Toyota shut them down without them having produced any tangible results.


    It's even questionable that P&F could convince each other as time went on, given that they stopped speaking to each other some time during the 90s, and then Pons abandoned the field.


    Then in 2004, the DOE enlisted another panel to examine the best evidence up to then, and reached the same conclusion the first one had reached in 1989. And since then, reports of new experiments claiming excess heat (particularly from electrolysis with Pd-D) in the refereed literature have all but vanished.


    Finally, it seems even cold fusion advocates agree that the results have not been good enough to convince the world, which is the reason the MFMP has formed, in order to generate the evidence they agree P&F did not.


    Next to all that, a book rehashing old arguments, published by an electrical engineer with a bachelor's degree, the title of which reveals him as a member of the believer cult, is pretty irrelevant. Whether or not one is a believer, to suggest that cold fusion prevailed, when the publication rate marches inexorably toward oblivion, is clearly delusional.