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stefan Member
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Posts by stefan

    There is a problem with severe lag in the reporting of dead due to covid here atm, but it is low for sure 0-5 / day i think

    Do you know if the current analysis depends on onset or on day of death? I find that if onset is available you get a sharper instrument, but not sure if experts already does this and

    or if those values are available with quality in e.g. the Swedish database.. I asked my friend about this but it's summer and people log out and relax here.

    Nah the excess study was for the whole 2020. They normalized the age distribution and I guess essentially weight younger people more so that's why you could not translate the links excess death to the official statistic here. Now I kind of think that it is more fair to put the weights like that. But still England and Sweden is around 80-85 in mean age of covid death with basically the same population pyramid, so the big differences is indeed remarkable. Maybe younger people in England had more problems then in Sweden but they are so few compared to all the elderly that they did not contribute much to the mean age, but in stead showed up when you standardize against a different population pyramid.

    So 92000 dies here per year, excess death of 1.5% of that for 1.5 years

    lead to 2000 deaths. WTF, we have 14500 covid dead now. So is there something fishy

    here.


    I found the cludge, the excess death was the second half of 2020 figures, it is way higher for the period, for 2020 it is 7000 excess death, last year, this year we have a negative excess death so that in all for 1,5 years I suspect an excess death of 5000-6000 here and decreasing.

    Interestingly If you look at excess death as the combined effect of social adaptation to the pandemic and the pandemic itself lead to the following excess figures, excess comparison, you see England and USA at 10-12% and Sweden at 1.5%. That's an order of magnitude difference. But the official covid figures indicates basically the same order of magnitude.

    Yes. all these figures can be questioned - they do a nice job of pointing out the issues and note that three different methods give broadly comparable results.


    That also (mildly) validates the internationally accepted age-specific IFR from COVID.

    Thanks, what i'm after is the independence of the calculations. I would preferable had the different calculations entirely independently done (blindly). What to look for when it comes to the power of this as evidence is that they did not tweaked the other two calculations out of the result of one. (We had an accident in one of our nuclear facilities, that thank goodness was stopped, but here the culpit was that many on paper independent safety systems was indeed not independent due reasons found in the link here after, The Forsmark incident

    Re the indian study. Maybe this is linked before, but here is the paper paper


    Look like they estimated from three sources

    1. IFR and the fraction having antibodies 4 million

    2. From a rather large panel (subsample) of India 4.9 million

    3. extarpolation from civil registrations 3.4 million


    I do not see any analyses or professional critique out there yet, but

    at first look it looks like a quite solid conclusion as it is deduced form three

    independent sources.

    Most people don't know where to begin doing real research. I never say that. I say, "do your homework." Meaning, read what the experts have to say and try to understand it if you can, but try to be honest with yourself if it is over your head. Avoid the Dunning Kruger effect.

    I would add time also to let experts and fact checkers and fact fact checkers respond in a correct way. The maddening in all this is that folks usually make up their mind way too quickly and the hyperbole wins to often because of this.


    We need a really well executed RCT here to solve the controversy. I do think it is safe, if treated correctly, and the problematic side effects with ivermectin is stemming from not having doctors prescribing and controlling the intake but in stead self medication and using ivermectin variants not done for humans.


    Both these articles experts do not address why the most common sources of biases explaining what they see is not valid, So I don't find them being critical enough over their own arguments about their conclusion due to this. But it is a nice example of why medical science exists.

    Hmm, here is an interesting discussion about 4 million excess death in India at hacker news.


    My take of this is simply you cannot do anything with Indias official statistics. The only data to trust is information

    from proper randomized samples. All else arguments go to the garbage can.


    The paper discussed did indeed study random samples I believe and there was also a number presented in the discussion

    that said that around 70% of the Indians have antibodies (not sure if it's from subsampling but these numbers typically is that

    but the sampling method can be of different quality). Combine that and you get an IFR=0.4% Looks low as if 4 million was dead,

    you would have a huge amount of people not treated in hospitals. (we know that hospitals where full) On the other hand

    India has a young population so I do not find the figure strange on a first look and these numbers seam to have ended in the

    right ball park.


    This suggest that the decay of cases in India seam to be a combination of immunity and lock down and that we now see what

    a free falling epidemic does to the population. If this was USA you would have gotten around 2 million deaths (with an IFR=0.6%)

    but probably more as hospitals would not cope in USA as well. The delta really penetrates quickly and this indicates why lock

    downs (previously an parts of the world now) in some way is needed. I prefer the Swedish one with recommendations, but I do understand that other countries, with more of a dense population, and less complying to what the governments say, does a more strict lock down.

    Quote


    Okey, 3-6 hours, fair you seam to have defined a group here, yes you need to divide the day rate by (3..6)/24 =1/8 .. 1/4.


    I trust that you search VAERS to find this for a subgroup, and that it is much higher than backround for the group. Just to have a clean post about this please define.


    1. Sub group criteria: my guess 30-40 years, no comorbidities, suspicious death condition e.g. blod cloth and not traffic accident.

    2. Number of cases found

    3. The natural number of death for the sub group.

    4. onset 3-6 hours after jab


    I would like to know if we could find a similar signal in our databases, things that can go wrong here is that the numbers expected from

    your finding is too small due to Sweden being smaller and or that we have not got many jabs from the group.

    I no this dissipative reports made by the pharma clerks. They do not use proper math. If cloths occur within 3-6 hours then you must take the survival rate for e.g. 1/8 of a day. Then you must take a mirror set of same age groups and look often such people did die after the flu shot within 3-6 hours. Crucial is the time point of onset of symptoms not the final death. You can always cheat this. A said in VAERS you can find a large set of cases with all details.

    Survival rate calculations is done all the time by scientists. Yes the clerks that get the reports will read and fill in the database and what not I do not know the exact details, but the statistics is handled by experts, and they know how to analyze life data. Typically you make a Kapplan Meyer Graph For the subgroup of interest. The software knows how to correct for fractions of days.


    Yes studying the onset of symptoms in stead of actual death can lead to a sharper tool to find out issues with medicines. So the reason is this.


    If you get a symptom in a sharp time period (a peak) after the vaccine shot, we would expect that due to the big variation of responses, the actual time to death will smooth out the peak and it can hide in the background noise. On the other hand we know the background of deaths and the onset should have the same rate as deaths as both timepoints are very flat during a week time scale and has the same frequency if we do not count onsets from people that survive hence the same. Now how could we get hold on that data?, are the medical records that exact? VERS has onsets but is not complete - people tend to report more if it is closer to the jab time. One could go through all medical records and do the statistics on the onset rate just as with deaths, that could probably be an innovation but how reliable is this information. Also a possibility, but less powerful but more easy to get statistics to use is the time when people is hospitalized. I find this approach really interesting. I will ask my friend about this.

    I would agree if you were looking at the United States but western Pacific and Scandinavian countries would skew those results as their main diet is oily fish.

    Swedens dark secret of longlivety must be surströmming. We have big parties (surströmmings skivor) in the autum where we eat this. Right now we are experiencing a national trauma as big EU fishing boats have vacuumed the whole eastern sea from herring and local fishers can't find any herring for surströmming. So we might have to try something else, perhaps we can do as the vikings and get high on fly agaric which is commonly found here in the autumn. So expect our life expectancy to tank in the years to come.


    All big feasts in Sweden have basically the same food, (Christmas, eastern and midsummer) pickled herring spiced in many ways is a popular dish at those events.

    Salmon is a popular dish all year around. My favorite salmon (lax) is "gravad lax" with "hovmästarsås" and boiled potatos. Basically you freeze a salmon side in the freezer and then let it unfreeze and salt it in a couple of days. Hovmästarsås is basically a dill vinaigrette salt white pepper and mustard combo where you drip in oil and wip it very much like making a spiced mayonnaise without egg.


    In Sweden It looks like the most popular dish is spaghetti and a tomato minced meat sauce followed by chicken and fish. As said salmon is very popular here and we salt it, smoke it and make different dishes in the oven with it.

    We have a database for reported medical possible side effects. Database for drug usage, database for the deaths, visits in hospital and then what not. To peek in the databases you need to go through a ethical board to do research. But the information is there. I think that the reported side effects is what's reported to EU. It's difficult to get hold of data one would like to have through internet though to really get good statistics but it's there ,complete and of good quality. I believe that especially the death statistics here are really good compared to other countries and if Swedish researchers do not factor in deaths in their study, they will many times in the peer review be requested to publish the number of deaths and the influence on the statistical analysis as the international reviewers is well aware that that information is available here.


    Now some information of deaths has been reported in the news by investigators that have gotten hold of the data. The deaths I found is a 2 or so possible blod cloath deaths (after that event, we got more careful regarding this risk) also there is a couple of hundreds of deaths from covid, at a specific time that also had gotten a vaccine shot that was reported in a news article. All other reports state that the data has been compared to natural frequencies of deaths and nothing remarkable has been seen apart from the blod cloths it seams. As I said if there was 10 cases with no co-morbidites of 35 year olds or such that within days dies by for example a heart attack, or blod cloth, this would be heavily investigated and reported. We probably do not have much data for really young people yet here like 18 years or such.


    If you have an idea of novel way to analyze the deaths from covid I highly recommend to team up with swedish researchers. Because our data are complete and rich, and the reporting is automatized, by professionals, and mandatory by law, you can get very good proofs of a deadly signal that does not have the issues of e.g. selection biases you get from more sloppy reporting and lack of complete death statistics. Also the death database means that one have a very good grip of the normal frequencies of deaths for quite detailed subgroups.


    my best link for a reference is to use google translate on


    Statistik om läkemedel
    www.socialstyrelsen.se



    there you can find a link to internet databases, but I did not find them good enough to do anything serious.

    Unluckily this is exactly the problem - not linked. All deaths within 14 days after vaccine must be reported but if there is an executive order no to report them, then you will find none. Canada has issues such an order. Doctors that report death may loose their appropriation... May be you once should ask a doctor.

    Almost all death in Norway were linked to the vaccine as these did occur within hours. The rest is pharma propaganda and bribed doctors.

    You should know how to do proper statistics. If you take 10000 old people and 100 die, then you must randomly select an other 10'000 and look at their death rate for e.g. a 2 days period. This varies with the median age but will always be much much lower than 100.


    From a statistics point of view no death in Sweden simply is a lie. But extreme wonder may happen... Switzerland had about 25 reported/mio. vaccinated.

    No, the data is all there. You will have for a death, an anynomized id, (to run through different tables of information) reason for death code, date of death, medical records of codes for comorbidities, age, sex, date of vaccine, what vaccine, what medicin they are eating, the lot. The actual medical records are a bit more difficult to study, but researchers request them and they validate that the data in the database is correct according to the records by proper sampling methods so they even know how much faulty information there is in the databases. The researchers data analysts and doctors and experts that look at the data will analyse, of cause, for longer duration like 2 weeks as well, you can be assured. I just took the example from one of your suggestion of what you can find in VAERS. The internal databases is complete so that you get this information for the whole country. The officially reported statistic does not include deaths that cannot be linked. As that is very confusing for the general swede and as a big source of miss-information and it is not possible to do that as you need to full databases in order to do a proper analysis and that we cannot make public due to privacy laws here that are very strict for databases about people. There simply is no glaring obvious or even a weakly obvious internal statistic that shows there is a problem except for those reported as there is a mind bogging focus to not screw up when it comes to the vaccines. We have top notch data analysts in Sweden when it comes to education and medical statistics, one of my friends is an expert in the field and I know the education of them as I got the same education (my phd is in mathematical statistic, I ended up doing probability theory as phd). I know that we have plenty of independent folks who's job is to monitor medicals like vaccines. I know for a fact that they are doing their best, not biased or bought by the medical companies as they are completely financed by the state, they are the peasants and they are protected to come forward if there is any bribing of their bosses (which is more likely to have contacts with medical companies if event they have) and information is suppressed. If they are bribed it is a severe crime and it would most likely be found. Heck if you are fired you are most likely safe due to strong union laws and safety net, so the bosses can't threat with that. The only thing I can come to think of is that the real mafia has something nasty on a person that forces them to do some dirty work (databases leak a little perhaps of some of this activity and there has been some case(s) of doctors, which has a very strong protection here, write out suspicious amount of narcotically classed medicine). Sweden is one of the least corrupt countries in the world.Sorry but I cannot fathom how an obvious high death statistic can be missed. What we do not have is hundreds of million people so if there is issues on the probability level much lower than getting hit by a car, we will not find it and that's why the process is repeated in the EU and other bigger countries and there is an open exchange of issues with the vaccine.

    This is as fringe as the EU vigelence database where at least academics can have access. May be its also incompetence in anonymization of data... Usually it is big

    No I have watched this process in a project I was involved with and I know for a fact that the process I described is how you access research data from medical records and the death database here and I know that they are pretty complete. But as you say they send some hopefully anonymous data to EU for their database else there is a data leak that is not according to how it should work and even maybe against the law here. But I do not know the details.


    Around 100 was reported as dead with covid after getting the shot e.g. not linked to the vaccine and experts say that that's to be expected by having a running pandemic and

    a vaccine that for some very weak does not fully protect, they did not find the numbers glaring. Probably that was mostly the Norwegian cases as well. We had a few Astra Zenica blod cloth deaths in Norway that was linked to the vaccine. We did not have those in Sweden though, but that can be just a coincidence as the number was very few.


    Our medical records are complete and all those that die in their database is also included. Researchers can get hold of that information in the process I described. They do not present the data in the official statistic of deaths that are not linked to vaccines, simply that. What I know they do is they compare with background and they examine the medical records so if they find that 10 young people within a day of a shot dies without a comorbidity they would flag it and they would stop the roll out of the vaccine. So we can safely say that in Sweden at worst we have a few dead healthy young one from the vaccine out of totally 5 millions vaccinated age say > 35.

    If demand goes down the price goes up if you want to survive with the current costs as a shop owner or restaurant owner and the marginal is small.

    In Sweden we probably will reach over 70% of adults fully vaccinated in a about a months time Over 9 million doses as been given and 4000 severe side effects reported. They say that the side effects they see is expected. It is obvious that the vaccine worked against the British strain as death went down considerably compared to the number of infected so it seam to have saved lives here. No deaths is reported due to the vaccine and this data is from a well exercised and complete data collection. (All I know that has gotten a side effect was reported to the database) We do not have access to the raw data as by privacy laws you cannot share data willy-nilly. In order to perform analysis you need to go through an ethical board and if getting an ok, then the database managing unit mail you an USB stick with the data.


    masks is not political or right or left

    lock downs are not political or left or right

    vaccines are not political or left or right

    covid is not political or left or right


    Thinking that it is political is just crazy, as an example.


    Sweden is left-middle, we do not do hard lock downs and masks is moderately used but we are pro vaccine to a very high degree and we do not use ivermectin.


    What we have here is essentially letting just our version of Fauci and other medical staff run the press briefings, where the president would chime in from time to time to from request from the medical experts make laws that enables a good implementation of the strategy used. We have had discussions, for example of masks and the degree of our optional lock downs, but that was mostly between different experts, all vetted in news from both sides explaining their point of view thoroughly and you would typically understand both sides of the discussion are honest and act logically but used different judgement of data that many times was not clear. There is some politics but they mostly stayed out of the way. We also have crazy people that poor venom over the experts on the internetz and as well cheerers that likes what they are doing.

    I'm glad you have decided to post more, probably more levelheaded than most. Take a look at the FLCCC in ivermectin use against the Variants. Without an early treatment and honestly I don't care how much it costs, if it is effective, your concerns of future mutations are moot. Attacking during viral phase will stop mutations before they can replicate and put an end to this pandemic


    Ivermectin - based on the BIRD (= FLCC) own meta-study, when corrected for Elgazzar fraudulent paper + one other high likley bias paper, looks negative. So it is still work looking at trials like PRINCIPLE but don't hold your breath.


    Hmm Elgazzar looks suspicious indeed, but also the negative studies I looked at seam to look at too wide age groups, my analysis is that those studies may most likely

    look better, and be more ethical, if they focused on more narrow age groups. Agree that we need PRINCIPLE etc

    Tamil Nadu did it and after 4 weeks they did switch back to Ivermectin!

    As far as I understand it was the only region to not use Ivermectin and the others did. To really get a strong case for ivermectin one need

    to show that this region did not skip other measures as well such as social distancing and/or lock down. As I understand this is a key

    fact that Wyttenbach found out about and would like to get @Thux take on it.


    Noted that in Sweden, we seam to have more vaccinated than US now, not sure if the newspaper is miss-handling statistics, but with the

    current anti vacc movement in US, this will be a fact in the end. We do not have much news about vaccines performing badly, just that some

    people is angry and mad because they get the Astra-Zenica vaccine and not Pfizer. We are mostly outside now and does not hide inside for the

    sun and there is vacation with less interaction with other people, as last year, we do not have much problem with covid-19 atm. Lets see what

    the autumn will bring.


    I'm wondering also if ivermectin is the right path forward e.g. that we bark up the right tree if we took that path. The reason is that if ivermectin

    is potent and we used it and got the numbers down, the virus could very likely mutate and make the drug ineffective, just as with vaccines.

    I think the right way to go is to have a system to make drugs, to fight covid-19 that can be easily be modified if new strains overcomes the protective

    shield of the drug.

    OK, the proof is in younger age groups, fair, also I agree that one need to subgroup the statistics for young people to those not having any preconditions. If as you say the deaths are without

    comorbidities than that's the group has to be looked into and compared to. indeed, good point. Still I think that a lot of deaths seam to not be reported in VAERS and it is incomplete. The strength is in finding clues of how to subgroup in proper statistical databases I think - not to prove things. What do expert say about studying this subgroup? To early and too few vaccinated maybe.