stefan Member

  • Member since Aug 31st 2015
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from THHuxleynew)

    Do you know if the current analysis depends on onset or on day of death? I find that if onset is available you get a sharper instrument, but not sure if experts already does this and
    or if those values are available with quality…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    Nah the excess study was for the whole 2020. They normalized the age distribution and I guess essentially weight younger people more so that's why you could not translate the links excess death to the official statistic here. Now I kind of think that it…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    So 92000 dies here per year, excess death of 1.5% of that for 1.5 years
    lead to 2000 deaths. WTF, we have 14500 covid dead now. So is there something fishy
    here.

    I found the cludge, the excess death was the second half of 2020 figures, it is way higher for…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from JedRothwell)

    Interestingly If you look at excess death as the combined effect of social adaptation to the pandemic and the pandemic itself lead to the following excess figures, excess comparison, you see England and USA at 10-12% and Sweden…
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  • stefan Reacted with Thanks to JedRothwell’s post in the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from stefan)

    It will probably never be possible to estimate the death toll in India with any degree of precision. But that does not mean it cannot be estimated at all. This paper shows there are multiple approaches to making estimates, and they…
    Reaction (Post)
  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from THHuxleynew)

    Thanks, what i'm after is the independence of the calculations. I would preferable had the different calculations entirely independently done (blindly). What to look for when it comes to the power of this as evidence is that they…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    Re the indian study. Maybe this is linked before, but here is the paper paper

    Look like they estimated from three sources
    1. IFR and the fraction having antibodies 4 million
    2. From a rather large panel (subsample) of India 4.9 million
    3. extarpolation from…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from JedRothwell)

    I would add time also to let experts and fact checkers and fact fact checkers respond in a correct way. The maddening in all this is that folks usually make up their mind way too quickly and the hyperbole wins to often because of…
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  • stefan Reacted with Thanks to Shane D.’s post in the thread Covid-19 News.

    This South African doctor says Ivermectin is useless, and dangerous:

    https://www.timeslive.co.za/ne…ermectin-continue-to-die/

    His colleague says just the opposite:

    https://www.timeslive.co.za/ne…ho-says-drug-doesnt-work/
    Reaction (Post)
  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    Hmm, here is an interesting discussion about 4 million excess death in India at hacker news.

    My take of this is simply you cannot do anything with Indias official statistics. The only data to trust is information
    from proper randomized samples. All else…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote)


    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    Okey, 3-6 hours, fair you seam to have defined a group here, yes you need to divide the day rate by (3..6)/24 =1/8 .. 1/4.

    I trust that you search VAERS to find this for a subgroup, and that it is much higher than backround…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    Survival rate calculations is done all the time by scientists. Yes the clerks that get the reports will read and fill in the database and what not I do not know the exact details, but the statistics is handled by experts, and they…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Fm1)

    Swedens dark secret of longlivety must be surströmming. We have big parties (surströmmings skivor) in the autum where we eat this. Right now we are experiencing a national trauma as big EU fishing boats have vacuumed the whole eastern…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    We have a database for reported medical possible side effects. Database for drug usage, database for the deaths, visits in hospital and then what not. To peek in the databases you need to go through a ethical board to do research.…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    No, the data is all there. You will have for a death, an anynomized id, (to run through different tables of information) reason for death code, date of death, medical records of codes for comorbidities, age, sex, date of vaccine,…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    No I have watched this process in a project I was involved with and I know for a fact that the process I described is how you access research data from medical records and the death database here and I know that they are pretty…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    If demand goes down the price goes up if you want to survive with the current costs as a shop owner or restaurant owner and the marginal is small.
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    In Sweden we probably will reach over 70% of adults fully vaccinated in a about a months time Over 9 million doses as been given and 4000 severe side effects reported. They say that the side effects they see is expected. It is obvious that the vaccine…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Fm1)


    (Quote from THHuxleynew)


    Hmm Elgazzar looks suspicious indeed, but also the negative studies I looked at seam to look at too wide age groups, my analysis is that those studies may most likely
    look better, and be more ethical, if they…
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  • stefan Replied to the thread Covid-19 News.

    (Quote from Wyttenbach)

    As far as I understand it was the only region to not use Ivermectin and the others did. To really get a strong case for ivermectin one need
    to show that this region did not skip other measures as well such as social distancing…
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