stefan Member

(Quote from JedRothwell)

IFR ~ 0.006 from seriological studies and then there is another factor of 2 from tcell immunity

Actually the peak number of cases is the peak in cases related to the peak in deaths. the peak in cases is due to a hughe number of more tests. so 2500 x 5 e.g. 12500 cases a day for the swedish outbreak in s. korea.

(Quote from JedRothwell)

You are right one need to work pro actively. week 9 is basically empty of cases in sweden, they start to show up in statistics in Stockholm around 2 weeks from end of week 9.

(Quote from stefan)

ANother better meassure is to conclude there is a 5x difference in CFR between S. Korea and Sweden in the beginning of the spread. So
thats 1800*5 ~ 10 000 cases if we tested as much as south Korea or 50.000 cases a day If S. Korea had…

(Quote from JedRothwell)

IFR = ~ 0.0025-0.0033 = 1/300 - 1/400, max number of deaths / day ~ 100 => 30 000 - 40 000 cases a day for the number of deaths

(Quote from JedRothwell)

A problem is that it takes 2 weeks of brewing before cases to be known a lag of two weeks could be cut down if we tested more. My point is that we then must test 1 million people. Also I believe that when cases start to climb…

(Quote from JedRothwell)

There are trackable cases, and we had control on people from china and Itally. This was then people from outside of the known started to show up, prettu much everything came in week 9.

(Quote from JedRothwell)

I used death rate and IFR South Korea tested extreamely

(Quote from JedRothwell)

Jed do the calculation, Sweden had around 30000 new cases a day of infected, that's 150 000 with South koreas population and they maxed out with maybe 2400 new cases a day. We got everything on the same day basically and it took…

I think UK was so badly hit because UK had their winter break fully week 9, there is only one more country in north west Europe that had the same bad luck and that's Belgium. France and Holland had only partially winter breaks at week 9. Sweden has also…

(Quote from THHuxleynew)

No comparing US with UK is miss-leading. It looks like chance had a lot to do with the outcome in the starting phase of the pandemic in Europe and USA and a lot of factors how busy the airports are in the area at critical dates.…

(Quote from oldguy)

I think that what is meant is that you can rule out a big effect but not prove that there is not a small effect, just that.

Hmm Looks like a lot of deats curve has a linear decay many times. then the number of death is A h**2. So we sould compare the A ti see the differeces betwee countries. And h is country normalised death per capita

Sweden h**2 = 100
Denmark h**2 = 16
…

(Quote from THHuxleynew)

QAnon directly does not feel scary to me. But the huge divide and anger between groups in USA means a lot of TNT is buried in the society. Also consider how foreign interests so much want to put a stick in USA's wound you realize…

Here is another speculation consider a spread that is localized as in starting with a single hotspot. And compare where you spread a lot of hotspots regions randomly selected. In the first case a neighbouring prisitne cluster has only one border to the…

A new EU-funded LENR research project will start on August 1 (i.e. tomorrow). The project title is "Clean Energy from Hydrogen-Metal Systems" (CleanHME)
The project will run for 4 years, and many pioneering European LENR researchers participate in it.
…

(Quote from THHuxleynew)

Yeah with corona if HCQ + X does not work but all are using them you get the kills because of corona + the kills because of non-functioning treatment so first establish that it work with RCT, then apply the roll out. To allow it…

(Quote from RobertBryant)

fake propaganda, be careful with russia and neighbours. Thats troll territories and information war is present. fake news russian style It is quite easy to debunk though you would expect people to get ill but very few die, All…

One of my statistical black magic tools that I use from time to time is sign and sign rank tests. Very powerful when you have few data points and really need a feeling if something you see is significant or not. Here is an example. I first analyzed the…

I actually have an idea. Belgium was hit really hard and are very densely populated, hardest in Europe. It simply burned out all material in the start phase quite evenly and there where no clusters left to burn. Just simple as that. In stead Sweden and…