Posts by AlainCo

Michel Vandenberghe often insist that the biggest revolution from LENR, the biggest generated value, will be the "innovation of usage".
Internet is the typical example.
The revolution of Internet is not of allowing people to exchange mails, or download files faster and cheaper than on X25 Telco's networks, or downloading with your phone.
It is e-tickets, amazon, uber, youtube, facebook, bitcoins, and also PRISM, Snowden, Manning, ISIS.

Steam engine, and printing are the core of the industrial revolution.
It created nation-state, the big corporation, tourism,...

Integrating NBF article LENR is a very sane revolution for the socioeconomic fabric.
It seems from what we know that LENR is not demanding new competences, except for physicists, on the opposite.

The technology is simpler than Fracking, fission. It will probably exploit existing nano-tech competence, semiconductors technology, but most of the job will be good old plumbing, turbines.
It will require less competence, not more, not different.

However it will destroy many ORGANIZATIONs that were build to manage the complexity of current energy sources.
First there is the nation-state, the utilities, some multinational corporation linked to big energy, centralized academic funding requited for big science , big physics, fission, prospection...

all will not disappear, but the pressure will be reduced to their existence.

There will be however new technology, but for LENR usage.
exploiting LENR long autonomy, high density, in drones, in military devices, managing counter-measure to drones, exploiting distributed manufacturing, distributed communities, en,joying accelerated cheaper commerce, all that will create new opportunities of business, and new competences.

Finally maybe it will be a disruption for next generation as said in the article, but not because of LENR technology, but because of LENR "new possibilities of business and engineering".

Next Big Future is publishing an interesting article about impact of technology.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/…chnology-is-unlocked.html

Quote

Value of technology is unlocked incrementally so we will adapt and work with machines and automation

James Bessen wrote Learning by doing. Bessen returns to Marx’s 19th-century weavers to prove that as humans work with new technologies over the long term, they improve them and boost their own fortunes in the process. So, yes, when the power loom was invented, in 1785, it shifted weaving from farms to factories, instantly increasing productivity yet leaving workers’ wages flat for decades, as Marx noted. But he failed to predict what happened next: From 1860 to 1890, weavers’ pay more than doubled.

The value of any technology is unlocked incrementally, Bessen argues, perhaps over a generation, through on-the-job learning. Weavers working with early power looms produced two and a half times as much cloth per hour as their predecessors who used handlooms; 80 years later, they produced 50 times as much. It’s therefore the adopters and adapters of a technology—not its inventors—who create much of its value.

Faster Adaptation is needed

Wages don’t rise until the skills needed to operate a technology are standardized and able to be easily taught to workers. Once power looms matured and factories became more uniform, weavers could credibly threaten to take their skills elsewhere—and command more money as a result. Bessen offers several recommendations to speed up skills training in modern times: increased investment in community colleges, vocational education, and retraining programs for displaced workers, along with company-sponsored training and development programs that help workers learn new skills and gain experience with new technologies.

Reject the obsession with job-eliminating technology in favor of a focus on complementarity. Help workers acquire new skills, and craft an industrial policy that focuses as much on adoption as on creation.

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The idea that those who will get most of the value is not the inventors but the adopters is what I've heard from LENR-Cities.
This is why it is smarter for inventors to share future income with the "would-be adopters", who today are the one with the money. The problems is that usual method to partner with big guys typically does not share income fairly, and even sometime kill the innovators potential to innovate.

Wha I say is reported by journalist in the summary of data I cite usually when Argyuing with conspiracy theorist agans Rossi.

I'm tired, the article is referenced from il coriere dela serra...
some unknown people sabotaged the tanks. why ?
except if they are the mafia or the local enviro's , it is stupid.

some conspiracy theorists say that green allied with Camora to increase green regulation for which camorra was proposing solution. I don't believe in conspiracy solution.
Camorra is an antifragile structure who exploited the ideology that was fashion.
they probably are exploiting climate fashion, terrorism fear, anti-assad anti russian climate, then pro-russia pro russia fashion, exploiting daesh oil, saudi oil, biofuel, carbon quota (they did), and soon they will exploit LENR bubble.

Not only did Kodak research on digital photo, but they invented it.

You can be a leader and fail miserably, just because you are rationally enjoying a comfortable position.

yes, real estate is a strange asset that have value which came from others income.
it is like taxes, a license to live.

What the journalists reported is that some unknown actors have destroyed some tanks in Petroldragon domain, to polute the ground.

This is absurd except if you gain money or votes from pollution

Investing in steel process is investing in growth.
Not absurd at all.
In tourism, luxury, is a similar idea.
Today I'm afraid tourism is a bit undervalued. 8-<
Time to buy.

Shorting energy companies is not absurd but not bullet proof.

good energy companye may, like Fujifilm, pivot intelligently to benefit from the revolution.
Turbine designers, smartgrid specialists, good engineering companies, may be able to dump 90% of their asset and use the 10% to grow bigger than before.

Take people like GE or Alstom... they have technology, knowhow, patents, but most of oall they have good engineers, and procedures to produc high quality products ?

take Shell... they do oil research, oil petrochemistry, but they could move to synfuel (as they do on biofuel), to raw material prospections (linked to economic growth created by LENR).

the best model is Kodak versus Fujifilm.
Kodak had the best technology but enjoyed a good comfortable market and near died when the digital photography they invented nearly washed their markets.
Fujifilm was able to pivot intelligently, toward digital camera, but also toward chemistry and thin films technologies.
Being intelligent is not always embracing the revolution, dumping your past, but sometime exploiting your past to enter an old market where you are very competitive.
If you are disrupted, why not "teslaize" someone else business?
Imagine Areva entering the bunker business, the IT security busness, the food or drug market ? maybe they are better at making bunkerized technology, than at LENR ?
Imagine Shell entering the food industry? Or the tourism industry ? Or the blackops business?

this is very uncertain future. smart people may enjoy that moment.

about social impact of cheaper transportation, see the impact of the Chinese tracks in Africa

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/…-wealth-and-peace-to.html

My first estimated impact, after price, is independence as I said before. It may free communities from their corrupt elite.

Drone, bots, with huge autonomy will create new possibilities, and as Jed Explains in a pamphlet , it will free the engineer of energy anxiety, allowing better intelligence.
http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJcoldfusiona.pdf
http://coldfusionnow.org/wp-co…ll_FQXI_submission_es.pdf

More than desalination, I see great possibilities of water cleaning.
This will push also energy intensive mechanical farming by opposition to fuel intensive chemical farming.
I think of technology like Naturagriff
http://www.naturagriff.com/

One great thing is also the cheap good transport (cargo), that will alllow every producer on the planet, without any need of big electric grid, to participate global market.
I support the vision of De Soto that the problem of globalization is that poor people cannot benefit to a direct access to the international markets and it's rich clients.
If LENR allows LENr cargo to be managed "uber-like", transporting the goods of African, south american , farmers or manufacturers, without too many intermediates, sold to richer EU/US/China citizen, then it will accelerate the enrichment of those population, and avoid parasites to steal added-value to the workers.

Yes wide investment is a good idea... like betting on half of the horses in a race. This is lottery, but the winner will earn much more than the bets unlike in usual "sharing" lotteries. Here something is created by technology and entrepreneurship.

Among the current startups, LENR-Cities have done a capital opening recently. I don't know if it is still open. Member of their LENRG ecosystem may be ready to open their capital, independently. LENRG component named "LENR-Venture" should be studied.

LENR-Invest is creating an investment fund, and may be ready now.

The problem is that the need for money is so huge that a modest investment, divided in a dozen of horses, will be useless for the startups. It should be gathered by a dedicated fund.

Lithium consumption is new data, but since 2012 I've done similar computations.
My quick numbers was
- negligible cost of fuel (nickel, hydrogen, lithium probably as you say)
- 6month of GDP to build the reactors and around at todays cost. (today 1$=1W installed...)

Most economists say energy is 10% of GdP, so making energy much cheaper save 9-10% of GdP.
A french economist propose reanalysis that energy availability (by price) is the cause of 60% of growth... (I have made a post on that: a French economist explain GdP growth is mostly energy... ).

Impact of energy "liberation", autonomy, localisation, geostrategic independence, is much more important that just the price and availability...
For example the fact that you can have electricity in a school for 5 years without having to pay a truck that have to pay bribes all along the road every week, have a huge impact in some place where governance is terrible. Add the freedom to install 5G Telco tower for 5years long without maintenance not refueling, coupled with uber-like applications, and car drones...

unpredictable. priceless.

LENR is not a theory, it is a group of evidences of nuclear phenomenons.

The problem is that some consider that theory rules over experiments, and nothing can exist without a theory. This is THE problem.

I'm far from a true believer, and initially because of the effective FUD agains Rossi I was very skeptic on him... I've checked the news, the data, the science, and all that was proposed as evidence of conspiracy by Rossi finally is more easily explained by his personality , the state of science, and local parameters. Occam razor.

About LENR, there is evidences which are clear , showing there is a nuclear phenomenon of great interest.
The probability LENR does not end as practical technology in next decade is ridiculous. There is a moment when doubt is not far from "faith of the true believer".

I defend evidence based policy.
I don't believe in LENR, I am convinced.
This is a reversible process, unlike denial.

It is a complex story, and best is to stick to real evidences, even if behavioral.
Darden and Woodford, the behavior of [lexicon]IH[/lexicon]/Rossi in Lugano and Ferrara tests, tells more than hypothesis about his past career.
Note to skeptics: there is only one reality, so if you claim something against [lexicon]IH[/lexicon]/Rossi, propose coherent stories... I mean don't mix errors, with frauds.
And when things are not proven, say it is a possibility, and count the number of assumption , of complicities, of student mistakes, you need for your theory.

Anyway it is clear that the only reason why skeptics are skeptics, is because they cannot accept LENR reality.

The scientist who experienced LENR mostly are really skeptics on Rossi/E-cat/[lexicon]IH[/lexicon] because his evidences are not the kind they like... this mean they are far from sure it works, but also not sure it does not work...
I will add that LENR scientists are mostly skeptics on each-other works.

Detail, Rossi was innocented of fraud, including any scam scheme in Petroldragon.
He was accused of polluting, and escaping taxes after his business was halted.

It is hard to understand what happened exactly, because he was treated like a hero by La Stampa before, his process is used (with different input), and suddenly while Camora was making big business with growing environmental laws selling waste "solutions", Rossi was declared polluting.
Then some strange people sabotaged his tanks, despite of Rossi, environmentalist, inhabitants, or even competitors interests, except the "cleaners". the cleaning price then exploded strangely.
And recently the officer of finance police who pursued him pleaded guilty of corruption...

Hard to guess who is the fraudster in that affair...

Anyway the fact that Rossi kept his jobs in US after some jail period for tax offence, talk more tha Mary Yugo innuendo.

Uncertainty on Rossi, given his sometime strange behavior, can be understood. what should raise your BS-alarm is that given all I said before someone is sure of what happened.

Skeptics should be more skeptic on their beliefs.

Today it is like investing on Internet startup in 1993...
This is time of private equities and tycoons.

Some will say that LENR is uncertain, that their device may not work.
It is not the greatest uncertainty.
The first years of LENR revolution will be very bloody. many startup will be washed, many investments will be lost, and someone as improbable as Google or IBM may catch the wind...

Best would be to invest either in "good future" (long alpha on the market), or in "uncertain future" (long beta).
Anyway many says that the structure of the market, full of big corps, will change (uberization).
If you can lose all your money invested, meet people, make due diligence, or invest in someone who did it. (eg: woodford funds)

Steven Krivit of New Energy Times reports here the sponsorship of LENR projects though NEDO (Industrial Technology Development Organization).

http://news.newenergytimes.net…ship-in-lenrs-continues/4

Akito Takahashi reports a project "The nano-metal hydrogen energy project (NEDO-MHE)" is adopted conditionally and started on Oct 2015.

A project "The joint research team (Nano-METS)" involve Technova, but also Nissan, and 4 university Tohoku but also Kyushu,Nagoya and Kobe.
It involves Takahashi (Toyota/Technova) but also Iwamura (MHI), Nakamura (Nissan), Kitamura (Technova and Kube U), Kishida (Kyushu U), Hioki (Nagoya U).

about the many plants, it seems it is self-ignite of the community which became strawman for the skeptics .

It seems there is only on such plant, a prototype, which did not fulfil the requirements and had to be improved.
the dozen of new plants were hope by Rossi, and it seems it never realised.

Taking one year to start production is fast for industry, especially with only 50million$.

don't expect to sell more than 100M$ reactors (100MW) with 50M$ cash...
This is why some predict that if done that way, Rossi/[lexicon]IH[/lexicon] will be overtaken by big guys.
Only if they can harness China "World Factory" using Billions$, can they satisfy demand.